Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

Will keep the tradition going and beat Brent to the post.

Crusaders choice vs Hurricanes
Rebels minus 10.5 vs Wolves
Jag's minus 4.5 vs Sharks
Chiefs minus 6.5 vs Waratahs
Reds plus 5.5 vs Highlanders
Bulls minus 14.5 vs Brumbies
Stormers choice Lions

Funny week for me steering down the barrel of my first loosing week in a month and I pulled back into significant profit on the last two games. Got lucky and had the sharper sharks line and had line up to -28.5 on the Jags.

On those numbers I would be all over the Wolves catching 10 Rebels don't deserve to be more than a try favorite to anyone.

GG OUT

Crusaders (+0.5) vs Hurricanes
Rebels (-9.5) vs Wolves
Jag's (-6.5) vs Sharks
Chiefs (-8.5) vs Waratahs
Reds (+12.5) vs Highlanders
Bulls (-8.5) vs Brumbies
Stormers (+5.5) vs Lions

Firmly in the Bulls camp!

Brumbies have failed to cover away from home this season.
- Lions +15.5 (Lost by 18)
- Landers +15.5 (Lost by 26)
- Rebels +2.5 (Lost by 23)
- Reds -4.5 (Lost by
- Sunwolves -16.5 (Won by 7)

Then Bulls off a 30 point loss. Teams off a loss of 25 or more have gone 7-0 against the handicap in the next match this season! The bounce back is real!

BULLS -8.5 is early gold

RuggaBugga wrote: Firmly in the Bulls camp!

Brumbies have failed to cover away from home this season.
- Lions +15.5 (Lost by 18)
- Landers +15.5 (Lost by 26)
- Rebels +2.5 (Lost by 23)
- Reds -4.5 (Lost by
- Sunwolves -16.5 (Won by 7)

Then Bulls off a 30 point loss. Teams off a loss of 25 or more have gone 7-0 against the handicap in the next match this season! The bounce back is real!

BULLS -8.5 is early gold

Then the Highlanders should also be considered for a bounce back, off a 29 point loss?

Cettas wrote: Then the Highlanders should also be considered for a bounce back, off a 29 point loss?

Absolutely but that red card in the 1st half had a massive swing on the match. Still fancy the Landers to cover the handicap and keep the bounce back alive

The Rebels H moved from 9.5 to 14.5 in just an hour??
Are the Wolves travelling with a light team to have such odd movement?
On the top 14 – Montpellier should win the semi-final – Lyon played an extra 20 minutes Friday night but need to see if Couilloud, Beauxis and Michalak will be available for the game or not. Just keep in mind as well that the semi final will be played in Lyon (not the LOU stadium but still).

bradie82 wrote: The Rebels H moved from 9.5 to 14.5 in just an hour??
Are the Wolves travelling with a light team to have such odd movement?.

I call shenanigans! Cant find anything from news outlets or official twitter/website

R3V3R3NT_ wrote:

bradie82 wrote: The Rebels H moved from 9.5 to 14.5 in just an hour??
Are the Wolves travelling with a light team to have such odd movement?.

I call shenanigans! Cant find anything from news outlets or official twitter/website

It was discussed in the post match interview with Willie Britz. My understanding is that the Sunwolves will be without all the Japanese national players for the upcoming two matches.

On the same topic...Japan's first International on June 9th is at home to Italy. Will be waiting with anticipation for the line on that one, especially the way the Sunwolves have been playing lately....

bamiam wrote: It was discussed in the post match interview with Willie Britz. My understanding is that the Sunwolves will be without all the Japanese national players for the upcoming two matches.

If that is the case, then the Sunwolves are without 16 players! That is massive

Hard to be confident about any Aussie side but Reds +13 interests me. Highlanders will be without Ben Smith, probably the red-card winger as well, and maybe a couple other All Blacks if Mauger decides this weekend is the one where he needs to make up the AB rest protocol.

Reds rested after Sunwolves shocker.

My early fancy Chiefs - 8.5 and Bulls - 8.5

Finally returned a decent profit in week 14 after 3 average weeks.

Lost some on the Canes first up against the Reds. Had a minor loss on the Bulls game, lost on the cap and outright bet, but managed to add Bulls points over 22.5 just prior to kickoff which minimized the loss.

A lot of early interest for me this week. Mainly on Jaguars - / Waratahs + / Lions - caps.

Crusaders vs Hurricanes

Caps released with Canes as slight favorites and has since moved to Crusaders -1.5.
Team news will probably influence my direction here. No news on Crotty’s head nock as yet and they will not be allowed to play Whitelock if he is not 100%.
Initial thoughts leaning towards Canes 1-12.
Canes have won 7 of the last 10 and that included 2 away wins.

Rebels vs Sunwolves

Cap released at -9.5 and has increased to -13.5 in places.
Sunwolves’ squad depth will be tested this week if, from early indication, they will be without their Japanese national players. Sunwolves will be riding on the confidence of going back to back. Rebels have a great opportunity to increase their chances of a playoff spot with a BP win. They also played an outstanding last 20 to edge out the Brumbies in their last match.
Teams have only met twice before both away for the Rebels, with the Rebels winning by 26 and 20 respectively.
Moderately confident on the Rebels cap if it stays in the two score range alternatively 13+ market.

Jaguares vs Sharks

Definitely gets my early call of the week.
The Bulls lacked intensity and physicality, but honestly they were simply outclassed by a really good Jaguars unit. Sharks fronted up, but were all but convincing against the Chiefs.
Watching the Jaguars game over the weekend you immediately got the sense of how hard it is going to be to play them in Argentina on their current form. Their early home form in the competition now longer has any bearing in my view.
I’m going max on the Jaguars -6.5 and adding -6.5 to treble *(1/3).

Chiefs vs Waratahs

Cap set at -8.5, -9.5 and -10.5 in places.
Warathas, in my view, would have beaten the Highlanders by two scores without the red card. They followed up what they did in the first half against the Crusaders and are outstanding on attack when they fire. Chiefs are however at home and will have their All Blacks back.
Tahs have won 6 of the last 10 including 2 away wins.
Confident strike on the Tahs on +10.5 and adding a small stake for a win on the board. Also adding Tahs +10.5 in treble *(2/3).

Reds vs Highlanders

Cap set at +12.5.
Highlanders beat an underperforming Lions team two weeks ago, also noting that the Lions lost Marx early in that game. Prior to that they lost by 26 against the Sharks and lost last week by 29 (With 14 men). Reds beat the Lions then got smashed by the Sunwolves before scoring 34 points against the Canes and losing by only 4.
I’m tentative here, only because the Reds haven’t been consistent. Reds have won 6 of the last 10 and haven’t lost at home to the Highlanders since 2005, where they lost by 7.
The Highlanders will be hard pressed to bounce back, and they’ll probably win, but I think the cap is too big.
Moderate strike at Reds +12.5, given the past record and recent form I might be tempted to back the Reds on the Board later in the week.

Bulls vs Brumbies

Cap set at -8.5
Bulls were underwhelming to say the least. Mitch will in all likelihood come down on them quite hard this week.
The brumbies played well for 60min, but couldn’t compete following the red and yellow cards in the second half.
Last 10 encounters have the teams at 5 all with each team winning away once.
Seems to be a lot of interest in Bulls -8.5 and that gets my vote. Moderate play though.

Stormers vs Lions

Cap set at -5.5 and found -4 on BetX
Stormers are in disarray no matter how you try spin it. How they managed to get passed the Bulls a few weeks ago is beyond me and will definitely cost the Bulls in the playoff race.
Lions lacked a bit of their regular attacking flair this passed week, but managed to get the job done. Main issue for the Lions is definitely on the defensive side of the ball, which is why they can’t be viewed as serious contenders this year.
Lions have won 3 of the last 4, with one win and one draw at Newlands. Last win for the Lions at Newlands was by 13, April 2017.
Think the cap is at least one score too low and going max at -4. Also adding Lions 13+ for small stake and adding -4 to treble *(3/3).

Treble @ 6.86 – Jags -6.5 / Tahs +10.5 / Lions -4

Best of the early betting is Stormers to win. Don't worry about the plus, take the better odds as the Stormers will win the game. As Oracle would say, this is rubbish vs rubbish. The rubbish home team will win.

hanrick wrote: Best of the early betting is Stormers to win. Don't worry about the plus, take the better odds as the Stormers will win the game. As Oracle would say, this is rubbish vs rubbish. The rubbish home team will win.

I have no problem branding the "rubbish" tag as most will know on this site (mostly used for all Aussie sides). But I recon Hanrick is a bit harsh in using it to describe the SA Conference leaders. Yes, as expected they are well off the team they were last season but when they click they are still far and away the most exhilarating attacking team in the country. They Stormers seem to be in disarray and there must be some issues in the camp - I don't think that even the Newlands factor can save them this time around. Nothing big on this game for me at present but I am leaning Lions in some way shape or form.

Saders v Canes
It depends where your pre tournament money went. If you are on either of these two for the title then you might as well sit back and hope your side wins as the victor has a very good chance of being in the pound seats for the playoffs. Personally I have a feeling the Crusaders are starting to get their engines running with Mo'unga back. (Team news could be crucial for this one).

Rebels v Wolves
Revels have dropped off a bit and Sunwolves are flying high. If the Jap player news is true then Rebels should be comfortable winners. I reckon this will be an open running affair so I will look for points and tries markets later in the week.

Jags v Sharks
Bookies are finding it tough to give the Jags the respect that they have now clearly earned. Argentina is a tough place to go when those Argies are in the rampant mood they are at present.
Jags - HT/FT and Jags on best minus you can find. Also possibly looking for Jags points and tries later.

Chiefs v Tahs
Agree that Tahs have looked a touch better of late but I just don't trust them with my money. Chiefs are also no great shakes imo. I have no strong feeling here right now.

Reds v Highlanders
I think the Highlanders have run out of puff and are in serious need of refreshing their batteries after a tough SA tour. Reds can blow hot and could so wont be rushing into this one but might look at Reds tries as they seem to be a young team keen on giving the ball some air.

Bulls v Brumbies
Travel factor might have to be considered but so too the Mitch factor. Will be a loooong week for the Bulls boys this and they will be raring to go come Saturday. Brumbies actually showed more than I expected against Lions but I am still firmly in the Bulls camp for this one. Bulls lowest handicap I can get. Bulls - HT/FT and will look for Bulls points and tries.

Happy hunting everyone! (B)

Couch, the only thing the Lions have going for them is altitude. They only play "exhilarating attacking" rugby in the last 20 minutes when the other team is sucking in the big ones. Newlands is at sea level and that makes the playing field level.

If the Lions want to improve their team they can start by dropping that useless Rohan Janse van Rensburg.

Crusaders vs Canes.- This 2 teams has played 28 times , where crusaders has won 16 , Canes 9 times and Draw 3 times in all Superugby competitions. Seeing that this two teams are very close on the log, and
10 players each are in the AB group, is the DRAW a runner. 0,5 units on the DRAW.
Thahs coming out flying in most of their games. Thahs Win first half. Highlanders are very poor this season away from home. Reds is a good bet. Cape Townians want to hit the Jo'burgers very very hard.
Stormers a WIN. and -5,5

At Ellis the Lions scored 3 tries vs the Blues in the first half, versus Sunwolves 4 tries in first 42mins. Against the Stormers they notched up 4 tries in the initial half hour. In Pta the Lions managed six tries in the first hour against the Bulls. In NZ they were only 2 points down on the Highlanders with 5mins to play. Thus I wouldn't say that altitude is the only reason the Lions are leading the SA Conference...

Lions have been leaking tries (third most if not mistaken) but have also scored the most (granted they have played one or two more games than most) - definitely not rubbish in my view. Stormers might pitch up and deliver at Newlands but at present the Capetonians are much more worthy of the rubbish tag than the Lions.

I agree regarding Rohan. Jeez its amazing how his game has gone backwards this season. His handling is pathetic!

Let's not forget that Brumbies led the game up until the point they went down to 13 players. Given altitude as well as the numbers game. Brumbies can count themselves rather unlucky in that clash

In my view, there isn't a rational motivation for a Stormers win this weekend. The Lions aren't at the level they'd expect of themselves, their defense is leaking and yes Trokkie's handling has been terrible. BUT again they do not have close to the level or number of concerns the Stormers have.

Stormers shouldn't stay within 10 points in this game. The Lions might not pitch on the day and the Stormers might bring another gear out of sheer desperation, but I'd be more than surprised.

There will be money on the Stormers this week, but on form and in the current circumstances the smart money has to be on the Lions. No disrespect to any opinions, that's why we're all here...

Couch Critic wrote: Jags v Sharks
Bookies are finding it tough to give the Jags the respect that they have now clearly earned. Argentina is a tough place to go when those Argies are in the rampant mood they are at present.
Jags - HT/FT and Jags on best minus you can find. Also possibly looking for Jags points and tries later.

Bulls v Brumbies
Travel factor might have to be considered but so too the Mitch factor. Will be a loooong week for the Bulls boys this and they will be raring to go come Saturday. Brumbies actually showed more than I expected against Lions but I am still firmly in the Bulls camp for this one. Bulls lowest handicap I can get. Bulls - HT/FT and will look for Bulls points and tries.

Fully agree with your view CC
Jaguares are finally playing like the Pumas and their past lack of discipline is far behind them now.
Mario Ledesma managed to to get them focus on their game and I cannot see the Sharks winning there. The HT/FT @1.86 is a decent bet and I will target as well points and tries.
Bulls should win this one but the handicap is a bit high especially with the fact that Bulls can be totally invisible in second halves. Therefore the HT/FT @1.75 or the HT handicap (expecting 2 or 3) as well as the tries would be my first thought once out.

On the Rebels topic, the cap moved to 24.5 on bet365 but still available at 17/18 on some bookies. Not sure it is worth taking it now or wait for a higher handicap

This Rebels cap is amazing to watch ...
Opens -10.5 and now at -24.5 at BetX

The Brumbies are done, 15 points behind the Tahs with a maximum of 25 left to play for ... Arnold suspended, Valetini and Abel injured. Just playing for pride on last game of SA tour. Yes they played well against the Lions but the Lions are not the same defensive unit they once were.

Bulls get back Oodendaal at 12 so Pollard back at 10. The game against the Jags was the worst Bulls performance of the season and Mitch will make that known this week. The Bulls are still in playoff contention

Teams 2nd match in SA this season
- Chiefs - Lost 28-24 to Sharks
- Highlanders - Lost 38-12 to Sharks
- Rebels - Lost 34-18 to Stormers
- Crusaders - Beat Lions 14-8
- Sunwolves - Lost 40-38 to Lions
- Jaguares - Lost 47-27 to Lions

This game checks all the boxes and firmly on the Bulls -8.5

One thing to consider about the Sunwolves....the last match against the Stormers 8 Japanese players started and 3 of those were swapped for non Japanese during the match. The match before that against the Reds they had 7 Japanese players starting and 2 swapped during the match. They won both matches..

There is no doubt that their bench will be down to the rags but I suspect (only supposition) that the non Japanese players are a tight knit group and the 'bond' between them will be pretty strong, so maybe this is a possible over estimation of the loss of the Japanese contingent...

I'm probably talking nonsense, but it's food for thought, if the handicap line starts getting stupid...and maybe it is at +24.5..

Super Rugby Picks for this weekend:

Crusaders (to win) v Hurricanes
Rebels v Sunwolves (+24)
Los Jaguares (-6) v Sharks
Reds v Highlanders (-12)
Bulls -8 v Brumbies
Stormers v Lions (-5)

General thoughts are the -24 on the Rebels beating the Sunwolves in my opinion is absolutely ludicrous. How on earth can the Rebels be -24 when the Sunwolves have covered against the Hurricanes, Crusaders and Lions is totally beyond me. Secondly the Jags -6 is a steal. The bookies have yet to come round to the fact that the Jags are the form team in Super Rugby right now and the crowd against the Bulls was a large one and will be even bigger for this weekends game. I like Crusaders to win on the board as i think they will have been lining this one up for a few weeks now and even though i think the Hurricanes are a better side they blow hot and cold in games and i feel are guilty of losing focus

slaterj wrote: Super Rugby Picks for this weekend:

Crusaders (to win) v Hurricanes
Rebels v Sunwolves (+24)
Los Jaguares (-6) v Sharks
Reds v Highlanders (-12)
Bulls -8 v Brumbies
Stormers v Lions (-5)

General thoughts are the -24 on the Rebels beating the Sunwolves in my opinion is absolutely ludicrous. How on earth can the Rebels be -24 when the Sunwolves have covered against the Hurricanes, Crusaders and Lions is totally beyond me. Secondly the Jags -6 is a steal. The bookies have yet to come round to the fact that the Jags are the form team in Super Rugby right now and the crowd against the Bulls was a large one and will be even bigger for this weekends game. I like Crusaders to win on the board as i think they will have been lining this one up for a few weeks now and even though i think the Hurricanes are a better side they blow hot and cold in games and i feel are guilty of losing focus

Thanks for the views.

You steering clear of Chiefs vs Tahs?

I was on the same page with Crusaders, but they have two All Black props out with suspensions and it seems unlikely that Whitlock and Crotty will be cleared following concussions.

I'm on board with Jags, Bulls and Lions and I managed to take Rebels minus on Monday. You reckon the Highlanders will cover the cap against the Reds away?

Hey guys couple of photos tweeted out of the sunwolves at the airport and in Melbourne.

h ttps://twitter.com/sunwolves/status/999086873963151360

h ttps://twitter.com/sunwolves/status/998892554044162048

These are the players I can make out
Jason Emery, shunsuke nunomaki, Asaeli Valu, Atsushi sakate, Kaito Shigeno, Jaba bregvadaz, Henkus Van Wyk, Keita inagaki, Edward Quirk, William Britz, Shiya Makabe, Robbie Robinson, Sam Wyks

Maybe some one else with a good eye can spot more key players.

A bit early as the game is not until the 9th of June but those are the French and French Barbarians squad for the June test matchs.

France :
Forwards (18) : Atonio (La Rochelle), Baille (Toulouse), Ben Arous (Racing 92), Gomes Sa (Racing 92), Priso (La Rochelle), Slimani (Clermont), Chat (Racing 92), Bougarit (La Rochelle), A. Pélissié (Bordeaux-Bègles), Gabrillagues (Stade Français), Lambey (Lyon), Maestri (Toulouse), Le Roux (Racing 92), Babillot (Castres), Galletier (Montpellier), Gourdon (La Rochelle), Lapandry (Clermont), Sanconnie (Brive).
Back (14) : Parra (Clermont), Serin (Bordeaux-Bègles), Belleau (Toulon), Plisson (Stade Français), Bastareaud (Toulon), Doumayrou (La Rochelle), Fickou (Toulouse), Fofana (Clermont), Lamerat (Clermont), Grosso (Clermont), Thomas (Racing 92), H. Bonneval (Toulon), Fall (Montpellier), Médard (Toulouse).

Barbarians:
Forwards (14) : Aldegheri (Toulouse), Bethune (Agen), Setiano (Toulon), S. Taofifenua (Bordeaux-Bègles), Lespiaucq (Pau), Marchand (Toulouse), Jolmes (La Rochelle), Rebbadj (Toulon), Verhaege (Toulouse), Cancoriet (Clermont), Cros (Toulouse), Pesenti (Pau), Tanga (Agen), Sobela (Oyonnax).
Backs (9) : Bales (La Rochelle), Couilloud (Lyon), Doussain (Toulouse), Fouyssac (Agen), Penaud (Clermont), Batlle (Castres), D. Camara (Stade Français), Dumora (Castres), Retière (La Rochelle).

To be honest, this French squad is weak. I almost prefer the Barbarians squad in some aspect. There are loads of players injured once again and the Abs will smash France by 20 minimum. This june test serie is a non sense as most of the players have played more than 30 games already this season and are all burnt out.
Very light second and third row, no decent fly-half, and players like Bonneval, Atonio, Maestri or even Serin don’t have their place anymore.
I highlighted few players to watch for those who are not familiar with the Top14
Baille, Aldegheri and Marchand – three young lads, under 23, that together have smashed any front row this season – this is the future of the French front row in my opinion with few other youngsters.
Bougarit have had an exceptional season – very mobile, powerful and good in scrum – needs to work his line out but very interesting profile
Lambey has been injured for few months but if he s back at this level before the injury, he is very good in touch and a very good defender.
Rebbadj was also injured but what I ve seen in the beginning of the season was a mature player for his age and a huge potential.
Cros has been playing 6, 7 or 8 this season depending on the need and managed to deliver high performance in any of those role.
Couilloud is another amazing scrum half like France knows how to produce (shame we cannot do the same with fly-halves). Him and Dupond are the future scrum halves for France.

only four players from starting XV that defeated the Stormers

Sunwolves: 15 Jason Emery, 14 Lomano Lemeki, 13 Michael Little, 12 Ryoto Nakamura, 11 Hosea Saumaki, 10 Hayden Parker, 9 Keisuke Uchida, 8 Edward Quirk, 7 Shunsuke Nunomaki, 6 Grant Hattingh, 5 Shinya Makabe, 4 James Moore, 3 Jiwon Koo, 2 Jaba Bregvadze, 1 Craig Millar
Replacements: 16 Atsushi Sakate, 17 Keita Inagaki, 18 Hencus van Wyk, 19 Sam Wykes, 20 Rahboni Warren Vosayaco, 21 Kaito Shigeno, 22 Harumichi Tatekawa, 23 Semisi Masirewa

Rebels: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Jack Maddocks, 13 Tom English, 12 Billy Meakes, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Reece Hodge, 9 Michael Ruru, 8 Amanaki Mafi, 7 Colby Fainga’a, 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Adam Coleman (c), 4 Matt Philip, 3 Sam Talakai, 2 Anaru Rangi, 1 Fereti Sa’aga
Replacements: 16 Jordan Uelese, 17 Ben Daley, 18 Pone Fa’amausili, 19 Geoff Parling, 20 Lopeti Timani, 21 Harrison Goddard, 22 Tayler Adams, 23 Sefa Naivalu

On the Top 14 semi-finals, so far only borrowing a play from The Vann, a small fancy for any draw (HT/FT)

Montpellier v Lyon @ 12.00
Racing v Castres @ 12.00

and a (B) on the double @ 144.00

Wellington V Canturbury
Ill side with Wellington here Cantabs missing Whitelock, Moody and Franks to me that weakens their advantage up front. Also missing Crotty in the midfield who is the master of organizing that defense.

Wolves v Rebels.
This line is an overreaction the sunwolves rotate players more than any other team below is the team list with games played this year in brackets nobody has played more than 11 games due to this rotation policy. And to me there is not a big drop of in player quality.
15 Jason Emery, (3)
14 Lomano Lemeki, (6)
13 Michael Little, (9)
12 Ryoto Nakamura,( 5)
11 Hosea Saumaki, (7)
10 Hayden Parker, (
9 Keisuke Uchida, (2)
8 Edward Quirk, (9)
7 Shunsuke Nunomaki,
6 Grant Hattingh, (
5 Shinya Makabe,
4 James Moore, (6)
3 Jiwon Koo, (7)
2 Jaba Bregvadze,( 6)
1 Craig Millar (11)
Replacements: 16 Atsushi Sakate , 17 Keita Inagaki (4), 18 Hencus van Wyk (5), 19 Sam Wykes( 5), 20 Rahboni Warren Vosayaco, 21 Kaito Shigeno , 22 Harumichi Tatekawa (3), 23 Semisi Masirewa (6)

Rebels have conceded the second most penalties with 126 and the second mos yellow cards with 7. By contrast the sunwolves have conceded the least penalties just 84 and only 1 yellow card. Parker is kicking everything so expect him to be punishing rebels infringements to keep them in the game.

I've taken +21.5 but like the Oracle ill buy down to +12.5

I guess the best move on the Rebels v Wolves game will be an over points/tries match and teams depending on the cut.
Forecast is dry, no wind, Rebels had a bye last week end and despite few players missing, I can see that Wolves team scoring a bit.
Will wait for the cut and post later.
On the Saders v Canes game, the H2H is indicating a low scoring but both defence have been weak recently and that could end up in a try orgy especially with the Saders pack being without few key players. An over 2.5 tries HT and/or 5.5/6.5 FT could be my move – light chance of rain but was not a problem last week against Blues.
Finally on the Jaguars game – I can see the Argentinians winning that one by a try difference at least but also expect a high scoring – any cut around 2.5 HT / 6.5 FT and 54.5 points would be my move as weather looks alright

bamiam wrote:

slaterj wrote: Super Rugby Picks for this weekend:

Crusaders (to win) v Hurricanes
Rebels v Sunwolves (+24)
Los Jaguares (-6) v Sharks
Reds v Highlanders (-12)
Bulls -8 v Brumbies
Stormers v Lions (-5)

General thoughts are the -24 on the Rebels beating the Sunwolves in my opinion is absolutely ludicrous. How on earth can the Rebels be -24 when the Sunwolves have covered against the Hurricanes, Crusaders and Lions is totally beyond me. Secondly the Jags -6 is a steal. The bookies have yet to come round to the fact that the Jags are the form team in Super Rugby right now and the crowd against the Bulls was a large one and will be even bigger for this weekends game. I like Crusaders to win on the board as i think they will have been lining this one up for a few weeks now and even though i think the Hurricanes are a better side they blow hot and cold in games and i feel are guilty of losing focus

Thanks for the views.

You steering clear of Chiefs vs Tahs?

I was on the same page with Crusaders, but they have two All Black props out with suspensions and it seems unlikely that Whitlock and Crotty will be cleared following concussions.

I'm on board with Jags, Bulls and Lions and I managed to take Rebels minus on Monday. You reckon the Highlanders will cover the cap against the Reds away?

Yes staying clear of Chiefs v Tahs game as i'd rather focus on the value that lies elsewhere. I don't really have an opinion on this game as a fair few of the Chiefs starters are obviously at the All Blacks training camp ahead of the Internationals and then there is the travel factor to take into account after playing in SA for the past few weeks.

Highlanders v Reds in my opinion is a horrible game to call as the Reds put in a decent shift against the Canes last week and a similar case can be made to both sides that they are hard to call. Landers haven't had the best of times lately and the Reds have played well in Brisbane beating the Lions in recent weeks and considering its an AUS v NZ game i don't think they'll need any motivation

Cettas wrote: On the Top 14 semi-finals, so far only borrowing a play from The Vann, a small fancy for any draw (HT/FT)

Montpellier v Lyon @ 12.00
Racing v Castres @ 12.00

and a (B) on the double @ 144.00

Excellent call Think I will follow but unfortunately only at 8/1 with the books that still take my money.

The movement on the Rebels v Wolves cap is just hilarious – from 10.5 to 24.5 to 18.5 to 20.5 to 22.5 to 19.5 in just 72h
Hope it can go back to 22/24 for a low cut on Wolves points/tries
On the Montpellier game tomorrow night, there is still a doubt regarding Couilloud and Michalak and if both are out, that is quite a blow. Will wait for more information before taking anything on that game.
On the Racing one, Crater and Lambie are both out which means Tales or Dambielle should be starting at fly half

Firmly in the Canes camp tomorrow, got some 2.35 on the board earlier in the week.

Crusaders injuries have been well documented, hearing Jordan Taufua is out now too. That's now 5 key forwards they are missing from their strongest 23.

They've had the wood on the Canes at set piece time in recent years but can't see they'll get any dominance there.
Slight concern for Canes is Jordie Barrett at 13, who has apparently been training there for some time but has never played there.

My bets on the 2 first games tomorrow morning

Saders v Canes
Over 2.5 tries ht @ 1.60
Over 1.5 tries ht Saders @ 2
Over 1.5 tries ht Canes @ 2.15

Rebels v Wolves
First pena scoree before 31”45 @ 1.85
Over 1.5 pena scored @ 2.10

Points lines for Rebels vs Wolves is out...

Over 60.5 total (looks a bit low to me)
Rebels over 40.5
And Wolves over 19.5 (also a bit low?)

Any thoughts?

Taufua confirmed also out for the Cantabs. Id say that's 8 AB's out for the Cantabs but hes not an AB yet..........

I noticed a pattern.....
13.05.17 SR Crusaders Hurricanes 20 : 12
16.07.16 SR Crusaders Hurricanes 10 : 35
29.05.15 SR Crusaders Hurricanes 35 : 18
28.03.14 SR Crusaders Hurricanes 26 : 29
12.07.13 SR Crusaders Hurricanes 25 : 17
30.06.12 SR Crusaders Hurricanes 22 : 23
18.06.11 SR Crusaders Hurricanes 16 : 9
27.02.09 SR Crusaders Hurricanes 24 : 30