Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby

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2 months 3 weeks ago #1 by Brent Graham
Only 5 Super Rugby games this weekend and my handicap projections below (assuming all internatioal players available)

Highlanders +5.5 v Hurricanes
Blues -9.5 v Rebels
Chiefs +4.5 v Crusaders
Reds +3.5 v Waratahs
Brumbies -14.5 v Sunwolves

And the Boks play the Welsh in the USA- if both teams are at full strength possibly close to a choice game but I am not sure what team the Welsh are taking

Will start a separate thread for the London 7's and also the IRB u20's

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2 months 3 weeks ago #2 by mackem
Many thanks to Couch Critic for the latest edition of Post Match Scuffle, A Kwagga and an elephant on the ladies tee is available here

twitter: @goodforthegame
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2 months 3 weeks ago #3 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby
Was a good weekend mainly due to a max play on Reds cap, and didn’t get too involved in other sat games, probably a good thing as was leaning Stormers.

Onto this weeks games, early thoughts:

Will be looking for best Chiefs plus. They are getting some momentum again and it’s expected to be dry for game, which is key as Saders appear to have mastered wet game tactics.

Hurricanes on small minus also gets my support. Playing under roof far more suited to their play. They also get a less disruptive prep and extra 2 days in NZ compared to Highlanders, who didn’t impress against Reds.

If Blues are full strength then they could give Rebels a tough time, overdue a decent performance.

Canes and Chiefs 1-12 win double could be a nice price.

Twitter @southpawZA
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2 months 3 weeks ago #4 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby
Playabets out early this week, their to the right of mine in brackets

Highlanders +5.5 v Hurricanes (+3.5)
Blues -9.5 v Rebels (-8.5)
Chiefs +4.5 v Crusaders (+4.5)
Reds +3.5 v Waratahs +(6.5)
Brumbies -14.5 v Sunwolves - not out yet

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2 months 3 weeks ago #5 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby
Paddy Power out with -23 for Brumbies in the UK

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2 months 3 weeks ago - 2 months 3 weeks ago #6 by Chickendinner
Replied by Chickendinner on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby
Early double call.
Hurricanes match price + Blues match price.
Pays 1,27/1
Last edit: 2 months 3 weeks ago by Chickendinner.

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2 months 3 weeks ago #7 by Taylor
B365 are up as below -no Brumbies v Sunwolves cap yet....

Highlanders +3.5 v Hurricanes
Blues -8.5 v Rebels
Chiefs +4.5 v Crusaders
Reds +6.5 v Waratahs


I'm all over the Canes -3.5 @1.93, they'll be really targeting a bounce back after last weeks loss and agree with you South, I think they'll very much enjoy it under the roof after last week.

Too many injury questions for the Saders otherwise I would be with them, will wait for news as the week progresses.

Blues -8.5 peaks my interest a little, but my only early play is the Canes at this stage
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2 months 3 weeks ago #8 by mackem
Haven't seen any betting as yet but these are the squads for Boks v Wales in Washington (think I have latest Wales replacements taken into account, ...Shingler out, Turnbull in was most recent update I saw.

South Africa Squad:

Forwards: Nizaam Carr, Dan du Preez, Pieter-Steph du Toit (captain),
Thomas du Toit, Jason Jenkins, Steven Kitshoff, Wilco Louw, Frans Malherbe, Bongi Mbonambi,
Oupa Mohojé, Ox Nche, Sikhumbuzo Notshe, Marvin Orie, Chiliboy Ralepelle, Kwagga Smith,
Akker van der Merwe

Backs: Curwin Bosch, André Esterhuizen, Warrick Gelant, Travis Ismaiel, Elton Jantjies, Jesse Kriel,
Makazole Mapimpi, Embrose Papier, Ivan van Zyl, Cameron Wright

Wales Squad:

Forwards: Rob Evans, Wyn Jones, Nicky Smith, Elliot Dee, Ryan Elias, Rhodri Jones, Samson Lee, Dillon Lewis, Adam Beard, Bradley Davies, Seb Davies, Cory Hill, James Davies, Ellis Jenkins, Ross Moriarty, Aaron Wainwright, Josh Turnbull

Backs: Aled Davies, Gareth Davies, Tomos Williams, Gareth Anscombe, Rhys Patchell, Hadleigh Parkes, Owen Watkin, Scott Williams, Hallam Amos, Steff Evans, George North, Tom Prydie

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2 months 3 weeks ago #9 by takethegap
Replied by takethegap on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby
Definitely on Canes win. Highlanders missing 7 All blacks this weekend, going to training camp.
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2 months 3 weeks ago #10 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby

takethegap wrote: Definitely on Canes win. Highlanders missing 7 All blacks this weekend, going to training camp.


The 7 AB's are just at the camp until Tuesday and will rejoin the squad on Wednesday ...

www.odt.co.nz/sport/rugby/highlanders/di...ders-hurricanes-game

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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2 months 3 weeks ago #11 by takethegap
Replied by takethegap on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby

RuggaBugga wrote:

takethegap wrote: Definitely on Canes win. Highlanders missing 7 All blacks this weekend, going to training camp.


The 7 AB's are just at the camp until Tuesday and will rejoin the squad on Wednesday ...

www.odt.co.nz/sport/rugby/highlanders/di...ders-hurricanes-game



Thank you. Below from Rugby 365. Then they made a mistake. Sorry.

The Highlanders will be without seven of their All Blacks when they take on Hammett’s former team in a New Zealand conference clash. Hammett coached the Hurricanes from 2011 to 2014.

Ben Smith, Aaron Smith, Shannon Frizell, Liam Squire, Luke Whitelock, Waisake Naholo and Liam Coltman will all be attending a three-day All Blacks camp in Christchurch as preparations for next month’s three-test series against France continue.

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2 months 3 weeks ago #12 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby

takethegap wrote:

RuggaBugga wrote:

takethegap wrote: Definitely on Canes win. Highlanders missing 7 All blacks this weekend, going to training camp.


The 7 AB's are just at the camp until Tuesday and will rejoin the squad on Wednesday ...

www.odt.co.nz/sport/rugby/highlanders/di...ders-hurricanes-game



Thank you. Below from Rugby 365. Then they made a mistake. Sorry.

The Highlanders will be without seven of their All Blacks when they take on Hammett’s former team in a New Zealand conference clash. Hammett coached the Hurricanes from 2011 to 2014.

Ben Smith, Aaron Smith, Shannon Frizell, Liam Squire, Luke Whitelock, Waisake Naholo and Liam Coltman will all be attending a three-day All Blacks camp in Christchurch as preparations for next month’s three-test series against France continue.


No worries TakeTheGap, Rugby365 getting it wrong. Annoying as the -3.5 looks LOADS more appealing after the Rugby365 article ... still think the -3.5 Canes is the way to go!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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2 months 3 weeks ago #13 by coil
A bit behind this week, my cap's on the far right

Brent Graham wrote: Playabets out early this week, their to the right of mine in brackets

Highlanders +5.5 v Hurricanes (+3.5)...................High plus 8.5
Blues -9.5 v Rebels (-8.5).....................................Blue minus 7.5
Chiefs +4.5 v Crusaders (+4.5) ............................Chief plus 6.5
Reds +3.5 v Waratahs +(6.5)................................Reds plus 7.5
Brumbies -14.5 v Sunwolves - not out yet

.........Brumbie minus 18.5

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2 months 3 weeks ago #14 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby

Northerner wrote: Paddy Power out with -23 for Brumbies in the UK


Initial thoughts the Wolves +23 was the way to go.
Though I see its out to +28 now.
Anyone know why - (surely can't just be money coming for the Brumbies off their win over the Bulls???)

:huh:

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2 months 3 weeks ago #15 by hanrick

Brad Breath wrote:

Northerner wrote: Paddy Power out with -23 for Brumbies in the UK


Initial thoughts the Wolves +23 was the way to go.
Though I see its out to +28 now.
Anyone know why - (surely can't just be money coming for the Brumbies off their win over the Bulls???)

:huh:


Michael Little (their best player) and the blond wing are out injured.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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2 months 3 weeks ago #16 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby

hanrick wrote:

Brad Breath wrote:

Northerner wrote: Paddy Power out with -23 for Brumbies in the UK


Initial thoughts the Wolves +23 was the way to go.
Though I see its out to +28 now.
Anyone know why - (surely can't just be money coming for the Brumbies off their win over the Bulls???)

:huh:


Michael Little (their best player) and the blond wing are out injured.


Thanks Hanrick.

Agree, Little has been class.

Out to +31 at B365. Hopefully it keeps going.

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2 months 3 weeks ago #17 by R3V3R3NT_
Replied by R3V3R3NT_ on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby

Brad Breath wrote:

Northerner wrote: Paddy Power out with -23 for Brumbies in the UK


Initial thoughts the Wolves +23 was the way to go.
Though I see its out to +28 now.
Anyone know why - (surely can't just be money coming for the Brumbies off their win over the Bulls???)

:huh:


Wolves wont perform well at set piece where the Brumbies will excel. I didn't think the wolves backups played to bad omit the yellow card and I think they stay within the cap. But against a grinding boring territory and set piece focused team I don't give them much of a chance.

I predict the game goes like this .... Scrum inside wolves half, scrum collapses penalty against wolves. Brumbies kick to the corner for a lineout, throw to the middle, setup a driving maul and crash over for a try. Rinse and repeat.

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2 months 3 weeks ago #18 by mackem
Highlanders v Hurricanes preview

Some good stats supporting a close game, slight preference for the Canes

2.5 units Hurricanes win by under 12.5 points at 1.65/1 Sportingbet.

twitter: @goodforthegame

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2 months 3 weeks ago #19 by NicG
Hi guys.

This is my first post, but I've been following this site for a few years now. I really enjoy reading up on the different views of everyone.

I especially enjoy rugby in general

I've just got one question in respect to the Supersport Rugby Challenge Competition. Surely I'm not the only person who's very frustrated by ALL the rugby sites lack of interest in this competition?! It's been coming on from last year, where I can't find any team sheets before each weekend.

I'm really interested in following the guys who play below Super Rugby level. I really would like to see some team news to see who's playing. Would be awesome to see how some of the youngsters are coming through the ranks.

Does anyone know if there's any regular team news available somewhere?

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2 months 3 weeks ago #20 by shaft

NicG wrote: Hi guys.

This is my first post, but I've been following this site for a few years now. I really enjoy reading up on the different views of everyone.

I especially enjoy rugby in general

I've just got one question in respect to the Supersport Rugby Challenge Competition. Surely I'm not the only person who's very frustrated by ALL the rugby sites lack of interest in this competition?! It's been coming on from last year, where I can't find any team sheets before each weekend.

I'm really interested in following the guys who play below Super Rugby level. I really would like to see some team news to see who's playing. Would be awesome to see how some of the youngsters are coming through the ranks.

Does anyone know if there's any regular team news available somewhere?


Welcome Nic. When it comes to SS Challenge team news social media is your only friend. Check the teams' pages.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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2 months 3 weeks ago - 2 months 3 weeks ago #21 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby
Welcome NicG,

The lack of interest is mainly driven through the fact that the games are often not televised as they are often played on school or club fields in small towns. From a betting perspective it is also not well covered as international bookmakers don't generate odds and the South African ones have to take the risk and come up with it themselves - pretty much based past result and reputation based.

The only website that consistently provides team sheets and some information is sarugby.co.za - you need to select the competition, round of matches, then click on the match for the teams. Teams are however only published 1-2 days max before a match. Handicaps usually come out around noon on Thursdays.

Another source of information is Twitter, teams themselves post some news but there are some regular contributors attending the games who often post some information during the week.

Cheers and happy betting

Follow me on @Pierrebal1
Last edit: 2 months 3 weeks ago by Pierrebal.
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2 months 3 weeks ago #22 by NicG
Thanks, much appreciated.

Yeah, just disappointed with general lack of interest from the local rugby sites.

Would have thought Supersport would've made more of an effort to promote the competition and to at least at a minimum list the teams....since it's actually called the Supersport Challenge!! ;-)

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2 months 3 weeks ago - 2 months 3 weeks ago #23 by Cettas
Springbok team v Wales:
7 new caps starting

South Africa: 15 Curwin Bosch, 14 Travis Ismaiel, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Andre Esterhuizen, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ivan van Zyl, 8 Dan du Preez, 7 Oupa Mohoje, 6 Kwagga Smith, 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit (c), 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 1 Ox Nche
Replacements: 16 Akker van der Merwe, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Marvin Orie, 20 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 21 Embrose Papier, 22 Robert du Preez, 23 Warrick Gelant
Last edit: 2 months 3 weeks ago by Cettas.

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2 months 2 weeks ago - 2 months 2 weeks ago #24 by mackem
Many thanks to Oracle for his Super Rugby Round 16 plays, all on this video


twitter: @goodforthegame
Last edit: 2 months 2 weeks ago by mackem.

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2 months 2 weeks ago #25 by mackem

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2 months 2 weeks ago #26 by Taylor
Looks like the Brumbies will ignore the Aus Rugby Union request to rest players this weekend..

As an aside - an awful look for the already worrying Aus rugby scene

www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/internationa...-and-allan-alaalatoa

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2 months 2 weeks ago #27 by mackem

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2 months 2 weeks ago #28 by mackem

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2 months 2 weeks ago #29 by Cettas
SRC:

Still waiting on some team news, not sure if some of the Super Rugby Franchises will let their bench players get some game time in the SRC.

But for now happy to go with the following:

EP +17.5 - think the derby game will stay close
Pumas -12.5 - Form team of the North Section taking on an inconsistent Lions XV team
Welwitschias +36.5 - Waiting on team news but game to be played in Windhoek so should be a bit closer
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2 months 2 weeks ago #30 by mackem

twitter: @goodforthegame
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2 months 2 weeks ago #31 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby
For tomorrow’s game
I m hoping to see a very open game under the roof so going for few over

Over 5.5 tries @ 1.53
Over 6.5 tries @2.10
Over 2.5 tries HT @ 1.65

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2 months 2 weeks ago #32 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby

Cettas wrote: SRC:

Still waiting on some team news, not sure if some of the Super Rugby Franchises will let their bench players get some game time in the SRC.

But for now happy to go with the following:

EP +17.5 - think the derby game will stay close
Pumas -12.5 - Form team of the North Section taking on an inconsistent Lions XV team
Welwitschias +36.5 - Waiting on team news but game to be played in Windhoek so should be a bit closer


Excellent Cetta,

I agree on the Pumas and Welwitschias, but am staying away from EP / SWD - not sure what you are going to get with those teams.

My bets are:
Leopards +23 v FS - Leopards only lost in to Griquas in the last 8 minutes and should have won it - so backing them at home to keep it decent again the FS.
WP -39.5 v Border - I should have learned my lessons with big minusses last night but WP have 7 starters with Super Rugby experience. Apart from the Pumas, the WP has been the only side that has consistently covered the minus and put away opposition.

All the best.

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2 months 2 weeks ago #33 by shaft
Take all the EP +17.5 you can. That cap is not even close and I won't be surprised if EP win.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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2 months 2 weeks ago #34 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby
SRC: As always, as soon as we start talking big moves in some caps:
Leopards +23.5 from 9/10 to 15/20
EP +17.5 to +16.5
WP -39.5 to -44.5

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2 months 2 weeks ago #35 by Cettas

bradie82 wrote: For tomorrow’s game
I m hoping to see a very open game under the roof so going for few over

Over 5.5 tries @ 1.53
Over 6.5 tries @2.10
Over 2.5 tries HT @ 1.65


Adding 1st half total over 23.5pts @ 1.85

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2 months 2 weeks ago #36 by Taylor
Interesting to see how the line went out earlier in the week to - 5.5 canes but now back to where it started at 3.5

In addition to the - 3.5, am adding highest scoring half - first half @ 2.00

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2 months 2 weeks ago #37 by Taylor
And B Barrett ATS @ 3.10

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2 months 2 weeks ago #38 by sunnyskies
Replied by sunnyskies on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby

bradie82 wrote: For tomorrow’s game
I m hoping to see a very open game under the roof so going for few over

Over 5.5 tries @ 1.53
Over 6.5 tries @2.10
Over 2.5 tries HT @ 1.65


Only problem I have with this is that Ben O'Keefe is refereeing and he doesn't really let the game flow. He's from Wellington so I'm expecting heaps of penalties in favour of the Highlanders especially.

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2 months 2 weeks ago #39 by sunnyskies
Replied by sunnyskies on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby

Taylor wrote: Interesting to see how the line went out earlier in the week to - 5.5 canes but now back to where it started at 3.5

In addition to the - 3.5, am adding highest scoring half - first half @ 2.00


I actually went higher scoring 2nd half thinking there will be more kickable penalties in the 1st half and the game may open up in the 2nd half after Ben O'Keefe feels like he has made an impression on the game :dry:

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2 months 2 weeks ago #40 by Taylor

sunnyskies wrote:

Taylor wrote: Interesting to see how the line went out earlier in the week to - 5.5 canes but now back to where it started at 3.5

In addition to the - 3.5, am adding highest scoring half - first half @ 2.00


I actually went higher scoring 2nd half thinking there will be more kickable penalties in the 1st half and the game may open up in the 2nd half after Ben O'Keefe feels like he has made an impression on the game :dry:


Good call, just went 1st based on the trend this season with nz teams and likely attacking intent from the get go. The intent was there but no execution in general in the first.

Some crazy rugby at the end of that half
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2 months 2 weeks ago #41 by coil
Grrr , had a bet on Canes ht/ft , wished them to boot it out when they had the chance grrr

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2 months 2 weeks ago #42 by sunnyskies
Replied by sunnyskies on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby

Taylor wrote:

sunnyskies wrote:

Taylor wrote: Interesting to see how the line went out earlier in the week to - 5.5 canes but now back to where it started at 3.5

In addition to the - 3.5, am adding highest scoring half - first half @ 2.00


I actually went higher scoring 2nd half thinking there will be more kickable penalties in the 1st half and the game may open up in the 2nd half after Ben O'Keefe feels like he has made an impression on the game :dry:


Good call, just went 1st based on the trend this season with nz teams and likely attacking intent from the get go. The intent was there but no execution in general in the first.

Some crazy rugby at the end of that half


Thanks Taylor. After physically walking out of the Highlanders game in Sydney a few weeks ago, and also watching the flat display last week in Brisbane (luckily I didn't go) I had a feeling they were really waiting for this game. I was wanting the Highlanders to beat them as I picked the Crusaders at start of the season to go back-to-back, and I'm now thinking of booking flights for Christchurch hoping they host the final, of course also that the Crusaders win tomorrow night. :cheer:

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2 months 2 weeks ago #43 by sunnyskies
Replied by sunnyskies on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby

coil wrote: Grrr , had a bet on Canes ht/ft , wished them to boot it out when they had the chance grrr


The first half didn't matter in the end apart from the try the Highlanders got on half time that gave them some momentum for the 2nd half.

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2 months 2 weeks ago #44 by mackem
Brumbies v Sunwolves preview http://www.goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-Matches/brumbies-v-sunwolves-super-rugby-2018-betting-preview.html

I've no view on the handicap either side of,30 points. Tom Banks anytime at 5/6 and also as 1st try scorer at 10/1 (both with WSB) took my eye

twitter: @goodforthegame

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2 months 2 weeks ago #45 by catsmug
I'm all over the Welsh both on the cap and outright. I dont care what they put out to oppose the boks. Any Bok team regardless of how political/experimental, that starts with Chilliboy deserves to be hammered.

If there are odds offered, I'm interested

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2 months 2 weeks ago #46 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby
Leopards 26 - 38 Free State

Leopards conceding 2 tries in the final 5 minutes, like last week, to lose but that cap comes home easily.

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2 months 2 weeks ago #47 by mackem
Many thanks to Oracle for his Boksv Wales preview


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2 months 2 weeks ago #48 by Taylor
I like Saders 1-12 tonight @ 2.70 (NZ TAB)

I know there is no Whitelock or Crotty, but with Moody and Dagg back and Taufua confirmed to start I think it's a pretty good looking team and they should be able to get across the line

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2 months 2 weeks ago #49 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby
I was looking to place my 1st spread bet in 6 months with a Blues shirts buy but weather seems dodgy - checked a few web cams and clouds have packed together so will wait for the coverage

Otherwise on the -7.5 highlighted in this weeks newsletter mailchi.mp/9241541e4c80/blues-fancied-to-deliver-1st-home-win

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2 months 2 weeks ago #50 by R3V3R3NT_
Replied by R3V3R3NT_ on topic Super Rugby Week 16 Wales v SA and other Rugby
Yeah weather is a lil dodgy. It has not rained yet but threatened all day. Maybe rain in the second half.

They are litterally giving away sacks of potatoes to get people to the blues game today Lol. If I wasnt sick id go . . . For the potatoes that is.

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