Tour de France 2018

Just some fun for the day
De Gendt @ 40/1
Pauwels @ 125/1
Poljanski @ 500/1

Thanks guys

I have gone for the following:

Double @ 7/4
Majka / Mollema
Navarro / Atampuma

Hopefully as good as yesterday.

Spending the next three days watching my god-daughter play hockey in Couch's neck of the woods ( Booked a mansion in Herolds Baai )
Spent the three stages money on
KOM
Barguil @ 5/2
Good luck all.

The Vann wrote: Spending the next three days watching my god-daughter play hockey in Couch's neck of the woods ( Booked a mansion in Herolds Baai )
Spent the three stages money on
KOM
Barguil @ 5/2
Good luck all.

Enjoy Vann! Decent weather at the moment - have a good one:)

Pretty sure BG is still watching the taped stage as I type this... And what a pearler it was!!

All I'm going to say at the moment is BERNAL!!! What a great ride by the youngster and then some great battling between the big boys.

Great stage yesterday.

My plays for today:

Laporte @ 28/1 E/W
Van Rensberg @ 250/1 E/W

Stuyven - 45/1
De Gendt - 47/1
Calmejane - 209/1

Yates 25/1
Vanendert 33/1

Jon Izagirre @ 30/1
Omar Fraile @ 34/1
Carusso @ 55/1

Fraile came home for me to nudge me back into the black (ever so slightly). Was very concerned at one stage that I had gone for the wrong Izagirre brother!

I can't see anything other than a break today. Summit of last climb comes with 40km's still to go.

Really could be a bit of a lottery today. Ala P must be feeling the effects of his KOM efforts but if they don't shake him on the climb he will without doubt get away on the descent.

Sticking with my Izagirre strategy and following Brent on Jon again today @ 30/1
Soler @ 70/1
Molard @70/1

Bardet over Tom D @11/10
Fuglsang over Kruijswijk @ 11/10

I have used the scatter gun and hope I get one or 2 that give me a chance:

Pozzivivo @ 80/1
Tolhoek @ 100/1
Perez @ 250/1
Durasek @ 400/1

All E/W @ Sunbet. All of top 3 have looked strong and hoping someone makes the break.

Back, refreshed and ready to tackle the last week. Nice Fraile pick Couch. Hope you guys took the e/w options at Sunbet on Izagirre.
No stage today so some Vann psychology on an outright. Sky managed to annoy the entire cycling fraternity before the tour started. Since then Sir Dave insulted 35,000 French mayors with his comments on UCI President Lappartient. Moscon selected a french rider on a french team to take a swing at and, this morning, when asked about the abuse being suffered by Sky from the spectators, Sir Dave said they were cheered by the Spanish at the Vuelta and by the Italians at the Giro so he could only surmise that the french have a cultural problem in their society. Nice one Dave. Will both Froome and Thomas get through this last week unscathed?
The french have already added an extra 2 km of barriers to the climbs to try and protect Sky but I think there is a solid 50/50 option that someone is going to take a pop at Sky so I am joining Goosoi on
Top 3
Roglic @ 2/1
(This at Sportingbet - around 15/10 everywhere else)

Stage 16:

Dumolin - 35/1
Gesink - 114/1
v Garderen - 164/1

Tomorrows stage looks like a low odds GC finish and Thursday likewise for the sprinters. Will spend my stage money today
Caruso @ 35/1
Rolland @ 50/1
Izagirre G @ 50/1
Navarro @ 80/1
Perez @ 100/1
On the UDT I did not bother to control my transfers with the sprints up-front and the mountains following. 30 Looked ample but I am 2 short for this round so have to hope I don't lose too much ground and can still manage a podium in Paris.

Jeez I've changed my UDT team four or five times and just couldn't get myself to press the SAVE button. Still not sure whether I should stick with the bunch and just try and match their tempo up the climb or have a proper go and try and break up the mountain either taking the win or seeing the entire front group pass me before the sight of the flamme rouge...

It is strange to think we only have 6 stages left in the race, two of those sprint stages and one the TT. Of the three mountain stages two have a big focus on descending as they don't end with a summit finish. Another spanner in the works is that the only only summit finish left is on tomorrow's seriously short stage. So potentially it is more important to be a great descender than the very best climber in the race if you want to win this thing (especially if it rains today).

Onto today's stage
I don't see Sky chasing this stage what so ever. Yet the others will know that there just isn't enough road left to let Sky dictate terms. But will Tommy D and Bardet be satisfied with going kamakazee on the downhill trying to win 30 seconds or will they push for something more substantial? Are Movistar more concerned with the team prize than going for something bold with Landa or Quintana today. Surely if Nairo or Landa were still serious about a potential Tour win they would go all in today and/or tomorrow with an outrageous attack...

Barguil and Ala P will duel for Polka points in the break with one of the Izagirre's for company and perhaps a Rolland/De Gendt/Gesink/Majka.

But the Movistar, Sunweb and AG2R led peloton will keep the break in check only for Nairo and Landa to crack up the final climb. Dumoulin, Bardet, Roglic and possibly Dan to go crazy on the downhill (and potentially Geriant to fall off his bike in the wet).

My Bets: (Bigger than usual plays as we get to the business end)
Roglic to win @ 19/1
Bardet Top3 @ 5/1
Dumoulin over Thomas @ 12/10

Ouch that hurt! Will need a win on one of these last mountain stages to get back in the black after that shocker.

Can't believe everyone just sat up today. I am getting the sense that Tommy D is actually backing himself to out TT Froomey and Thomas for the title and thus is happy to not try anything too risky. He will hope Thomas cracks up the steep finish tomorrow but for the most part I think he is pretty content right now.

Bardet just doesn't have the legs I fear. Reckon he will go for the stage win on Stage19 and that will be it. Roglic must be the man to watch tomorrow but again he will perhaps be banking on a good TT and hoping Thoma, Froome or Tom cracks out of podium position. And then we have Landa and Nairo - goodness knows what exactly Movistar are up to. Much was made of their trio pre tour and thus far they have been a disappointment. Surely Quintana or Landa goes HARD tomorrow.

Will add picks tomorrow morning but after 3 straight breakaway days the short stage surely has to be a GC tussle. Come on you lot - give us a show!

As the field turns for home - Here are the latest odds
GFTG Fantasy League
Couch Critic 7/10
Falconaters 15/10
Cycleboy 6/1
The Toffee 8/1
The Vann 10/1
Beerboy 15/1 ( Sadly short on transfers )
Rubbersidedown 35/1
MoneyWellSpent 40/1
Magic Rat 50/1
The Field 100/1
(Stage 18 could dramatically change these odds - so will update on Thursday)

Man,that toss over the barrier looked terrifying,but still think i'd prefer that to that skid over the tarmac.

Stage 17:

Barquill - 55/1
Gesink - 91/1
Gaudu - 124/1

Barguil let the Fantasy Team down big time yesterday and going by Vann's odds I am pretty much as likely as Thomas to end with the Yellow Jersey - just don't see it happening but at least I'm still on my bike and in the mix near the front.

I just don't see anything other than a big Movistar play unless they really have decided to only settle for the team prize so both Mackem and BG should be onto something with their plays. I will follow BG with a nibble on Nairo @ 15/1 but having a few big strikes in the match bet markets.

Landa over Kruijswijk onto Froome over Thomas @ 15/10 (WSB)
Dumoulin over Bardet onto Froome over Thomas @ 15/10 (WSB)
Landa over Bardet @ 8/10 (Sunbet)
Dumoulin over Thomas (yes I am going for it again) @ 11/10 (Sunbet)

1 for interest today for me, even though I think GC will be fighting it out, hoping a break gets away.

Navarro @ 200/1 (Yes after the last one coming second he owes me)
Confidis running out of stages to get a win and break there hoodoo. Something like 10 years I thought I heard for a win.Also like Perez but hoping Navarro is the one

Hoping for a nice stage today even if short. Hope someone actually takes Sky train on.

Today's stage is like being a teenager walking past your parents bedroom and hearing the sound of a wrestling match. You know whats happening but you really don't want to push the door open and watch. When a stage heads straight up a mountain at the get-go you have 10 riders looking for the break and 10-20 sprinters/heavier riders positioning themselves at the front to slide back through the peloton on the climb. Today we are adding 50 GC support riders who have to be in front to reach their GC contenders. You know whats going to happen and you really don't want to watch.
Can't see a break having any chance to form today and, with the last km at over 10% have to go with a pure climber
e/w Bardet @ 14/1 ( 1 unit win and 3 units place )
and a match bet treble
Froome over Thomas/Roglic over Quintana/Landa over Kruiswijk @ 15/4

The impressive performance of Thomas killed most of my match bets. But I was quite large on Landa over Bardet so that almost squared things of and Nairo got me back in the black.

Fantasy wise I was hoping for a big Dan Martin blow up on that final climb but the bloody Irishman kept it together and might have dealt me a fatal blow. The crash of Sagan means that I just don't see this going down to a sprint today so further bad news in terms of hoping for some points from Degenkolb.

Having just made my way back into black I am not going to waste much of my profits today so just a few nibbles on:
Nikias Arndt @ 57/1
Valgren @ 801/
De Gendt @ 90/1

Oh and I just have to say - hats off to the likes of Vann who called the Froome implosion yesterday. Up against Tommy D who also tried the double, the fact that there was an extra week of recovery and my feeling that Thomas was not grand tour tested over three weeks meant I thought the champ would have enough in the bag. It appears not.

One can either credit Ag2R with a brave, bold race or just shake your head at their insanity. It was clear to me that Bardet just hasn't had his best legs for pretty much this entire TdF so it was a bit strange that they went so aggressive, but as a pure racing fan I loved the action - I think it was mainly the efforts of Ag2R that killed Froome yesterday and dropped a lot of the others.

Movistar FINALLY made a move so I am slightly proud of them for that. Not the huge kamikaze play but just one to ensure they get a stage win at least. Reckon it might be Landa's turn tomorrow.

Enjoy whats left gents

Like Couch the Sagan crash has ended my fantasy team hopes. Can't see there being enough intent to chase down a break without Bora leading. FDJ still have a full squad but the Cat 4 at 20km from the end will probably discourage them from chasing for Demare. A couple of e/w's from Sunbet and a matchbet for the day
Lampaert @ 33/1
Van Rensburg @ 300/1
Matchbet double
Roglic over Kruiswijk into Colbrelli over Cort Nielsen @ 7/2

Bora DS just confirmed Sagan's objective is now to make Paris so I have thrown a late beer on
Smith @ 400/1

Fantasy League Update
As the Falconater approaches the top of the final climb with the peloton spread down the mountain side he glances over his shoulder - Horrors - A mere 30m behind is that serial Grand Tour winner and defending champion Badger Couch. A look of grim determination is plastered across his gob. The Falconater rises from the saddle and stamps down upon his pedals hoping his bib shorts contain the dollop he just parked as he redlines it to the top of the climb.
How does this all end - We will all know on Sunday but here is what the books think
Falconater @ 7/10
Couch Critic @ 15/10
and those who need to gamble on maybe 10 climbers/GC in the hope that the break stays away on the Champs Elysees - does happen around every 11 years
Cycleboy @ 12/1
Beerboy @ 30/1
The Vann @ 30/1
The Toffee @ 50/1
Magic Rat @ 70/1
Rubbersidedown @ 80/1
MoneyBadlySpent @ 100/1
The Field @ 500/1

Haha quality Vann! I must say at 7/10 I am emptying my account on BG to stay away. Degenkolb needed to at least podium yesterday but cocked it up badly.

If the Falconater looks back he will see a Couch Critic back in his seat, the Couch hunched over his handlebars in gorilla like fashion and spit dripping from his chin a la Froome as he has clearly been broken by the Alaphilippe like surge to the KOM from the man in the Maillot Jaune. BG just needs to stay on his bike from this poitn on me thinks...

Landa was quite vocal about having a long range go today so I reckon it might not be all she wrote quite yet for Thoma and Sky. As I have said previously unfortunately there just aren't that many big contenders left standing. Tommy D must surely be feeling the effects of the Giro and a touch two and a half weeks by now. Roglic is still new to being a the sharp en of the field so I don't expect anything too dramatic from him. Bardet just hasn't had the legs. Movistar are the only being players left and they might try something big as Landa has stated or they could just settle for trying to win the stage.

I am going for Landa to win today. Recon he is a touch better than Nairo going downhill. Landa @ 30/1
Fuglsang over Zakarin @ 12/10 (downhill giving the Astana man the edge)
Quintana over Thomas @ 2/1 (no risks required from Thomas vs Nairo)

Fantasy team in and requiring a 30 man break today to podium. Betting the same way
Fraile @ 33/1
Rolland @ 80/1
and have to go with Couch and the odds on
Quintana over Thomas @ 18/10 (Best I could find)

Landa gave it a good go yesterday but in hindsight Roglic was always the way to go with his downhill skills.

I also should have factored in Nairos injuries as both match bets tanked and pulled me back to close enough to all square for the Tour.

It was a great effort from most yesterday but I must say I'm just not a fan of the last mountain stage not finishing on top of the mountain rather than down below. To me the Alps stages had better routes than the 3 we saw this week.

Today I don't see GT risking too much and trying to push every inch out of his time. Top 10 is pretty settled on it is only Tom, Roglic and Froome actually battling. Clearly Roglic still has great legs at this stage and I just can't see anyone beating him for first place today.

At 13/10 he is too short to back outright with too much cash so instead I will add a bit of him into a few weekend rugby and F1 multiples.

Also Kung top 3 @ 27/10