Tour de France 2018

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1 month 6 days ago #51 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
Would be great if he could stay away but reckon Sagan still rightly the favourite here. Mackem's Ala P in good shape as well.

I'm adding Impey @ 40/1

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1 month 6 days ago #52 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
I followed Mackem with a half unit on Ala and also 0.25 unit on Valverde

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1 month 6 days ago #53 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
Like Ala today but a bit short so going 025 units

Roglic 33/1
Latour 66/1

Main bet

Roglic/TomD, Latour/Bernal, Sagan/Cobrellia a unit at 28/10

Inv 27.75 u
Pending 17 u
Banked 6 u
P/L -4.75u

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1 month 5 days ago #54 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Stage 6, a real poke in the dark, Jelte Slagter from the break at 200/1 and a little bit on Yates at 12/1. Should be a very interesting stage

twitter: @goodforthegame
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1 month 5 days ago - 1 month 5 days ago #55 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
Two things of importance today:
1. Will someone go clear on the first scaling of the Mur?
2. Will the pace up the first 700 odd meters at 10% be high enough to shake Sagan?
If the answer to both these are "no" then Sagan will cruise it yet again as the slope gets less toward the line and there will be no sprinters left to duel it out with him.

Too many possibilities today and Ala P, Valverde and Sagan just too strong to oppose with confidence so match bets it is for me today.

Also on Bardet over Uran
Then Roglic over Tom D @ 11/10
Port over Landa onto Latour over Bernal @ evens

Twitter: @HDCouchCritic
Last edit: 1 month 5 days ago by Couch Critic.
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1 month 5 days ago #56 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
If today was a horse race would have gone for the trifecta - Alap/Valv/Martin.
With Couch on the match bets today
Quintana over Thomas @ 15/10
Bardet over Uran @ 13/10
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1 month 5 days ago #57 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
Heartbreak as 66/1 shot just fails - that was agonizing to watch

The treble arrives thoughj

Inv 27.75 u
Pending 15.5 u
Banked 9.8 u
P/L -2.45u

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1 month 5 days ago #58 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
Thst finidh tomorrow may just be a bit tougher than it looks and I am having a quarter unit on Cobrelli for a win 22/1 and top 3 5/1 at Sunbet

Also taking 0.25 unit EBH podium at 33/1 - they may get to the point where they want insurance against Cav and if they give EBH a free run a toughish finish would suit

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1 month 5 days ago #59 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Nice treble on Thursday BG and hard lines with the 66/1 pick.


Stage 7 preview with Brent's Cobrelli pick.

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...stage-7-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 4 days ago #60 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
Roglic and the double coming in made it a good stage. Tough on Latour there BG.

Only one play for me today:
Sagan @ 4/1 - the slight incline is his playground. Decent strike

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1 month 4 days ago #61 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
Nice picks yesterday guys. Needless to say my TdF went further down hill when Roglic missed the break and they had to burn out Tolhoek to get him back taking down my outright white jersey matchbet. Does this mean I'm going to give up - NEVER
Today's stage finish is very similar to Stage 4 so I'm going with
Top 3 Greipel @ 5/2

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1 month 4 days ago #62 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2018
2nd bet of the Tour for me and going with a small interest Demare again 12/1 in running, but no top 3 available this time.

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1 month 4 days ago #63 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
A heads up on Stage 8 Saturday ...

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...stage-8-preview.html


I'm going with Groenewegen to go in again.

Got a message from Brent overnight, BG likes Cavendish to beat Kittel in the match ups at evens

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 4 days ago #64 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
Re the Cav play I think this finish is quite technical and positioning will be key coming into the final corner which I think will suit Cav more than Kittel

1.5 units on the double - roll on the cobbles

Also adding another long term match

Fugslang/Uran at 1/1 Betx for 5 units

Inv 35 u
Pending 22 u
Banked 9.8 u
P/L -3.2u

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1 month 3 days ago #65 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
Placed 5th on stage 1 - hurt on stage 2 - yesterday only second sprint and finished 5th. I think these odds at Sunbet are worth a nibble
Top 3 Laporte @ 10/1
and matchbet for day
Nibali over Thomas @ evens
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1 month 3 days ago #66 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2018
Greipel 16/1
Cavendish 22/1

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1 month 3 days ago #67 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Tour de France 2018
Bastille day and home town for Demare from what I understand

Taken the following:
Demare @ 11/1 E/W
Laporte @ 66/1 E/W

Then some beer Money in case Quickstep try to get clever
Allaphillipe @ 300/1

By my workings if he wins and he can get the yellow Jersey and maybe on Bastille day and with shorter technical run in, maybe he will try to make break once break caught..

Enjoy the racing.
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1 month 3 days ago #68 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Tour de France 2018
Main bet have ploughed into Cavendish over Keital .
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1 month 3 days ago #69 by kt6747
Replied by kt6747 on topic Tour de France 2018

mackem wrote: A heads up on Stage 8 Saturday ...

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...stage-8-preview.html


I'm going with Groenewegen to go in again.

Got a message from Brent overnight, BG likes Cavendish to beat Kittel in the match ups at evens


Nice call Mackem on Groenewegen and nice call on Cav as well Brent. Well Done Gents

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1 month 3 days ago #70 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Tour de France 2018
Well done boys , managed to claw back some .

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1 month 3 days ago #71 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Stage 9 over the cobbles on Sunday


www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...stage-9-preview.html


Brent likes Sagan at 9/4

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 3 days ago #72 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
To those who may be following the forum thread for the 1st time I have a TDF mailing list and send my thoughts out every few days - below is a link to the newsletter that went out a short while ago on todays stage

mailchi.mp/562ba495a4e0/the-tour-de-france-starts-today

You can subscribe on the link if you would like to get my Tour ramblings

And Yes I am in the Sagan camp today

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1 month 2 days ago #73 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
My appalling form on the TdF continues with Thomas rolling over the line one spot ahead of Nibali yesterday and my main pick for today - Tony Martin - breaking his back yesterday so he won't start.
Joining you guys on Sagan and adding
Top 3
Laporte @ 12/1

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1 month 2 days ago - 1 month 2 days ago #74 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
I hear you guys on the Master but I just think Quick Step are going to play the team game against him. Never a good thing being such a heavy favourite for a stage as others look to mark you out of it. I see QS having Gilbert, Lampeart and Terpstra at the head of affairs and rotating turns to attack on cobbled sections or periods inbetween the cobbles. Sagan can't chase them all down. Trek might also have 2 cards to play with Stuyven and Degenkolb.

Bets:
Gilbert @ 10/1
EBH "The Boss" Top 3 @ 9/1

Adding Uran over Bardet @ 9/10

Bit disappointed in the match bet options. Nibali will go full gas today to put the other GC guys under pressure. Fuglsang and Thomas the only GC guys capable of stying with him for mind. It will be interesting to see whether Astana also look to be aggressive and help Bahrain with breaking the race open.

Of course there will be a few mechanicals and its a case of holding thumbs that your GC guy doesnt suffer an ill fate today (Porte will be kissing a four leaf clover and saying his hail-mary's this morning!).

I have a sneaky feeling we wont quite see the shakeups most are expecting today but from Tom D, Porte, Yates, Landa and Quintana one or two might just lose 30 odd seconds here.

For me the Tour really starts next week.

Enjoy lads!

Twitter: @HDCouchCritic
Last edit: 1 month 2 days ago by Couch Critic.

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1 month 2 days ago #75 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
Success on the cobbles is mostly due to an absence of bad luck so most match ups should be 9/10 choice. I'm going to have a few beers on the longer odds on offer
Dillier over Naesen @ 16/10
Zakarin over Majka @ 16/10
Phinney over Vanmarcke @ 15/10

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1 month 2 days ago #76 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
Cav/Kittel arrives yesterday

1 unit Sagan win at 2.25/1
0.25 win Fugslang 80/1
0.5 Fugslang top 3 20/1

Fancy a big one from the Fugslang

Inv 36.75 u
Pending 22.25 u
Banked 12.8 u
P/L -1.7u

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1 month 2 days ago #77 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2018
22km to go -

Any other Rider to win 12/1 sunbet
Niki Terpsta 200/1

Twitter @southpawZA

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1 month 1 day ago #78 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
Crazy stage yesterday. I kind of hand the feeling Porte would struggle to get past this one - jeez can't believe his bad luck!

I love some variety and a good challenge but must say I am not a fan of this type of stage within the TdF. Yes the winner of the Tour has to be the best OVERALL rider, thus be able to timetrial, climb and survive three weeks of racing. Being able to negotiate or handle cobbles would be great as well but the issue I have is that this stage honestly only made it a lottery. There is zero skill linked to Bardet suffering such bad luck yesterday. The amount of punctures, mechanicals and crashes (not by your own doing) are just insane. Surely a normal road racing bike is not meant to go over those cobbles. I don't like such a big component of the race relying on mere luck. But that is just my own personal opinion on the matter.

I was so focused on Stage 9 and this coming week that I completely missed the fact that one of my pre tournament plays has already come in. Groenewegen going bang-bang in Stage 7 and 8 made my 2 or more stage victories for him a winner. After dipping into the red with regard to stage plays it was welcome relief!

Can't wait for some mountains this week gents!

Twitter: @HDCouchCritic
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1 month 1 day ago #79 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Big slopes on Tuesday lads, Stage 10 preview here ..

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...tage-10-preview.html


At nibble at Nibali for me :)

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 1 day ago #80 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
Chris if Rui Costa was racing I am betting 5/10 you would have gone for him on this stage LOL

No joy with Sagan for me in stage 9 and the cobbles never really lived up to expectations with the GC contenders all just looking to survive - bar Fugslang who did try. We hit the mountains today and I have sent a Tour Update Mail - here is the link mailchi.mp/4ec27be203ec/the-mountains-at-last - and you can subscribe at the top of the page

A speculative play on Latour at 28/1 today at Sunbet - he lost time on Sunday but is still 6/10 for the White Jersey and I think he will be allowed some freedom if he attacks


0.25 units in 28/1
0.5 units top 3 at 11/2

ll these quarter units have confused me but here is my balance more or less

Inv 37.5 u
Pending 22.25 u
Banked 12.8 u
P/L -3.2u

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1 month 23 hours ago #81 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
Yes please here we go lads!!

With two tough stages to go I reckon the GC lads might just hold back a bit. Movistar have never been known to risk things so don't see them having a proper go today. Bardet is licking some wounds and his team has taken a blow - so nothing from Ag2R. Nibali might have the brothers and Pozi pushing but all depends on how he is feeling on the day - with some other contenders falling by the wayside Nibali might be a bit more conservative at this stage. Tom D also won't push the envelope. Thus whether the break survives or not all comes down to what Sky decide for me.

Will Sky be happy to slowly work their way into the three days of climbing or will Froome come out all guns blazing and put everyone on notice?

I really don't know the answer to this. The downhill might just put Froome off going full gas and having to spend too much effort up Glieres which is a monster climb. Instead they might only up the pace up Romme-Colombiere combo to test out the competition somewhat. Overall I don't see too many big GC shake-ups today apart maybe from everyone being surprised by one or two of the GC guys loosing the wheels of Sky or Movi coming up the steepest part of Colombiere (ex maybe Nibali, Bardet, Tom, take your guess...) but most of the time should be made back up on the descent.

Betting:
Caruso, Calmajane or Navarro for the break @ around 30/1 (I'll take Navarro)
Gaudu @ 50/1
Rein Taaramae @ 90/1

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1 month 21 hours ago #82 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
No doubt you are all aware of Vann's outright bet disasters over the first 8 stages and the trend continued on stage 9. Replaced my GC outrights with Porte top 3 - that did not even last 50km. My KOM pick Vuillermoz won't start today as he broke his shoulder and this effectively takes out my AG2R team punt as they are now short two climbers. I should give up but I feel it is incumbent upon me to warn fellow punters that the following riders will crash and burn today
GC
Top 10
Pozzovivo @ 5/1
KOM
Bardet @ 40/1
Taaramae @ 159/1

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1 month 21 hours ago #83 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
Stage 10
Probably Quick-Steps last shot at yellow so going with
Win
Jungels @ 66/1 ( Will have to get in break )
Match Bets - Taken based on the odds
Martin over ValVerde @ 17/10
Landa over Quintana @ 16/10

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1 month 16 hours ago #84 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
0.25 units Valverde 20/1 in running

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1 month 2 hours ago #85 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
Disappointing stage yesterday and probably badly positioned - hopefully we get action today but more likely the break sticks as I am not sure who will chase it down

Have a total of 1.25 units invested each way across

Tolhoek 80/1 (he has shortened)
Martinez 66/1
Durasek 300/1

Inv 40.5 u
Pending 21.25 u
Banked 12.8 u
P/L -4.45u

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1 month 38 minutes ago #86 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Tour de France 2018
Having been a TDF fan, the tour has been boring for me the last few years with Froome and Sky dominating. This year seesm to be no different. All the other GC contenders just sits close to Froome like lapdogs without trying anything. Bores the hell out of me.

A rare TDF bet for me. Dan Martin to win stage 11 at 15/1

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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1 month 29 minutes ago #87 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
I like GC on Stage 11 Wednesday and have gone with Thomas whilst BG's Tolhoek is also in there.


www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...tage-11-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 weeks 2 days ago #88 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018
Nice work on those matchups yesterday Vann.
Gaudu and Taaramae gave me good interest and had I gone for Calmajane ahead of Navarro I would have had 3 out of the 18 breakaways guys - not much more I can ask for on such a stage. Ala P was just unbelievable. Up against some first rate climbers he put in an incredible ride!

Yesterday always struck me as a day for the break but today is a tougher call. Again, unfortunately, everything is probably down to Sky. On Stage 10 they were more than happy to just maintain a steady pace and keep things in check. I thought GVA at the front might doom the break but instead Sky opted for allowing him some freedom (bit strange that they don't really want the yellow yet since they are already riding like the team who has it).

As expected Movistar just don't have the balls to take an early risk - I always get the feeling they would almost prefer Nairo and Landa taking 2nd and 3rd and winning the team comp instead of anyone of their riders having a proper go at the overall win but risking only having one Top 5 and no team prize. Bahrain sort of have the team but as mentioned Nibali probably relatively happy that some of the other potential GC guys like Porte and Uran have dropped out, and Dan and Bardet losing some ground so in his mind he is making steady progress. Yesterday the Shark went for the option of having a man upfront and thus having a relatively easy day. What will Bahrain do today? The final summit is not very steep and Nibs might just fancy a win if things are together...

In the end I reckon there are too many strong guys looking for a win from the break and too few GC teams wanting to push for the win. Also, the price is just so much better on a break candidate;)

Bets:
Rolland @ 33/1
Teejay @ 90/1
Omar Fraile @ 150/1
Gorka Izagirre @ 150/1

Matches:
Nibali over Froome @ 18/10 (as Vann says - going for it based on price)
Nibali over Quintana @ 12/10 (Sunbet)
Bardet over Landa @ evens (Sunbet) - biggish play

Twitter: @HDCouchCritic

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4 weeks 2 days ago #89 by Wies Bang
Replied by Wies Bang on topic Tour de France 2018
WSB has Barguil as fav for stage 11

Surely the match up Barguil vs Caruso @ 1.2 should be a good bet , Barguil lost enough time also , so no GC contenders should be bothered to chase him.

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4 weeks 2 days ago #90 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018
Stage 11
Froome rides by the numbers and he will not lose time on climbs where the steepest gradients ( 10% plus ) are lower down. Two of today's climbs are the wrong way around for him. de Bisanne which peaks 80km from the finish and du Pre which tops out 50km from the finish. If AG2R had a full compliment of riders ( or if we had AC ) I have no doubt the attacks would start on the first climb and we would see a GC finish.
With the wimpish lot we have now a break could be clear with 50km left to race so I'm taking
Match bet
Roglic over Thomas @ 14/10 Main bet
and should it be GC going with Hanrick on the only rider who showed any balls yesterday
Top 3
Dan Martin @ 9/4

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4 weeks 2 days ago #91 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2018

Wies Bang wrote: WSB has Barguil as fav for stage 11

Surely the match up Barguil vs Caruso @ 1.2 should be a good bet , Barguil lost enough time also , so no GC contenders should be bothered to chase him.

Barguil reminds me of Ullrich. He's arrived undercooked and is riding himself into some kind of form. Probably stay away from him until the final week.

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4 weeks 2 days ago #92 by Proudwolf
Replied by Proudwolf on topic Tour de France 2018
I never watch cycling except for the Tour de France so my fantasy games and the like is mostly played with a combination of other peoples knowledge added to my strategy.
Once again i've really enjoyed watching this year and also reading your forum posts.
What a beautiful lake they started at yesterday.

As such,i've also decided to throw some small change at big odds to try and boost my golf roll. :P

Stage 11:
Dumoulin - 49/1
Zakarin - 73/1
Gesink - 81/1

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4 weeks 2 days ago #93 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2018

mackem wrote: I like GC on Stage 11 Wednesday and have gone with Thomas whilst BG's Tolhoek is also in there.


www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...tage-11-preview.html


Mackem you beauty!! What a finish from Thomas and geez what a show of power from Sky

Twitter: @HDCouchCritic

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4 weeks 2 days ago #94 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018
Brilliant Mackem, I really thought the break would contest that

Cannot believe Nibali put his team on the front to peg back Valverde when Sky were finally been forced to work

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4 weeks 2 days ago - 4 weeks 2 days ago #95 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2018

hanrick wrote: Having been a TDF fan, the tour has been boring for me the last few years with Froome and Sky dominating. This year seesm to be no different. All the other GC contenders just sits close to Froome like lapdogs without trying anything. Bores the hell out of me.

A rare TDF bet for me. Dan Martin to win stage 11 at 15/1


Having watched all 3 Grand Tours over the years the TDF is generally the most boring and alot of that is due to SKY. The problem is they ride a tempo that puts other riders at their limit making attacks suicidal but like you I get frustrated watching the SKY Train chugging along as the peloton gets thinned out. That being said I still love the race and for me even a boring tour is a good one

Froome looks tough to beat today and I wouldn't rule out a SKY 1-2 but I can't bring myself to back him and I like LaTour over Valverde for a unit at 5/6 today. Valverde may go early again today but I expect it to come together at the end where LaTour can finish ahead as he looks for the White Jersey

Couch well played I see you have hit the front in the Fantasy League

Inv 41.5 u
Pending 23.0 u
Banked 12.8 u
P/L -5.7u

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Last edit: 4 weeks 2 days ago by Brent Graham. Reason: addition
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4 weeks 2 days ago #96 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2018
Shot guys, Stage 12 heads up on the link below...

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...tage-12-preview.html

Like the look of this Daniel Martinez in the tour so far, not a rider I new anything about, He is my pick from the break at around 66/1. Will stick with Thomas from GC at 6/1 but not with the confidence I had yesterday.

twitter: @goodforthegame
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4 weeks 2 days ago #97 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Tour de France 2018

Brent Graham wrote:

hanrick wrote: Having been a TDF fan, the tour has been boring for me the last few years with Froome and Sky dominating. This year seesm to be no different. All the other GC contenders just sits close to Froome like lapdogs without trying anything. Bores the hell out of me.

A rare TDF bet for me. Dan Martin to win stage 11 at 15/1


Having watched all 3 Grand Tours over the years the TDF is generally the most boring and alot of that is due to SKY. The problem is they ride a tempo that puts other riders at their limit making attacks suicidal but like you I get frustrated watching the SKY Train chugging along as the peloton gets thinned out. That being said I still love the race and for me even a boring tour is a good one

Froome looks tough to beat today and I wouldn't rule out a SKY 1-2 but I can't bring myself to back him and I like LaTour over Valverde for a unit at 5/6 today. Valverde may go early again today but I expect it to come together at the end where LaTour can finish ahead as he looks for the White Jersey

Couch well played I see you have hit the front in the Fantasy League

Inv 41.5 u
Pending 23.0 u
Banked 12.8 u
P/L -5.7u


Brent, you're right about the tempo Sky rides at. They make the race boring. That being said, I enjoyed yesterday's stage.

Great pick on Thomas Mackem! And well played with your two matchbets Couch!

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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4 weeks 2 days ago #98 by Proudwolf
Replied by Proudwolf on topic Tour de France 2018
Man,the scenery yesterday was breathtaking!
And while it was hard seeing my pick finish 2nd after 150km,it must have been gutwrenching for that Nieve? (something with a N?) guy who got passed 500m from the finish. Oi!

Stage 12:
Gaudu - 49/1
de Gendt - 61/1
Rolland - 95/1

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4 weeks 1 day ago #99 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Tour de France 2018
Have taken Alaphilippe to wear the KOM jersey to Paris at 17/10 with Sunbet.

Matchbet for today: Froome over Quintana onto Dan Martin over Dumoulin at 12/10

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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4 weeks 1 day ago #100 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Tour de France 2018
Can't resist, taking Dan Martin again for today's stage at 16/1

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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