Super Rugby Week 22 The Final plus other rugby

Yep, me too, thanks Cettas!

Took the - 15.5 for a full 5 units.

Nooooo! I missed the -15.5. Got onto the -17.5 now.

Crusaders -17.5 at evens available at Betxchange. Fill your boots guys!

10 units on Oracle betting 5 units on Lions handicap - easy money

Pretty close, considering they have made me 18 units in two games, I may just have a big go, but I suspect the handicap is going up, so I may wait

Oracle wrote: Pretty close, considering they have made me 18 units in two games, I may just have a big go, but I suspect the handicap is going up, so I may wait

And tbh if the handicaps reaches 20 points, I ll be all over the Lions H

There is just too much against the Lions for them to compete this weekend.
- Travel factor is huge! Here are the last 3 playoff results where an SA side has traveled to NZ ...
2016 Canes 20 Lions 3
2014 Saders 38 Sharks 6
2012 Chiefs 37 Sharks 6
- The Lions have faced the Jags and Tahs in road to final and benefited from the bizarre Superugby system whilst the Saders have faced the Sharks and Canes. The Canes are easily the 2nd best team in the comp and they were smashed in Christchurch
- The Saders have not lost a playoff home match in their history
- The Saders only gave away 4 penalties in the Semi-Final and are the best defensive and disciplined side by miles
- The Lions are slow starters and were 14-0 down against both the Bulls and Tahs in JHB.
- Elton Jantjies does not know how to play in New Zealand

The Lions will be motivated but there is just too much in the Saders favour.

Saders -8.5 HT
Saders -15.5 FT

On -17.5....If the Lions start slowly again the in-running handicap could be well be into the late -20's in a very short time. Might look to buy a bit back....but that said...The Saders will not give much away to get overly worried

Currie Cup Outrights available

Golden Lions 1
Sharks 2.75
Dhl Western Province 4.5
Vodacom Blue Bulls 5
Toyota FS Cheetahs 29
Ford Pumas 49
Gwk Griquas 65

As mentioned by Bradie Currie Cup slashed to one round - Action runs from 17 August to 27 October.

www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/CurrieCup/currie...ound-action-20180514

Every game counts. Cheetahs will probably play first couple of rounds with the Pro14 squad as they prepare for the new Pro14 season (starting 31 Aug).

Rugby championship also running in the same window so most teams will miss their springboks for most of the tournament.

Not sure yet how the Lions will be impacted as they usually release some super rugby players to play in Japan this time of year and will probably give some guys a bit of a rest after the final.

For now just a small punt on the Pumas and Griquas, both played really well in the SRC and could sneak in if the other teams are off their game.

Cettas wrote: Currie Cup Outrights available

Golden Lions 1
Sharks 2.75
Dhl Western Province 4.5
Vodacom Blue Bulls 5
Toyota FS Cheetahs 29
Ford Pumas 49
Gwk Griquas 65

As mentioned by Bradie Currie Cup slashed to one round - Action runs from 17 August to 27 October.

www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/CurrieCup/currie...ound-action-20180514

Every game counts. Cheetahs will probably play first couple of rounds with the Pro14 squad as they prepare for the new Pro14 season (starting 31 Aug).

Rugby championship also running in the same window so most teams will miss their springboks for most of the tournament.

Not sure yet how the Lions will be impacted as they usually release some super rugby players to play in Japan this time of year and will probably give some guys a bit of a rest after the final.

For now just a small punt on the Pumas and Griquas, both played really well in the SRC and could sneak in if the other teams are off their game.

I took Pumas at 66/1 yesterday and see they came in to 50/1 after my bet with the particular bookmaker. With the structure of this year's tournament I reckon the Pumas makes the playoffs. I judge teams on their coach, not players. The Pumas have a brilliant coach in Brent Janse van Rensburg. Can't see the Pumas losing a game in Nelspruit.

Ek stem, huge value on the Pumas.

The Lions are my team, have been forever, even during the bad old days when we were the whipping boys. That said, I like to think that I am quite good at being objective and putting my own allegiances aside, I am in agreement with Oracle in that I don't think it will be as one-sided as everyone is claiming.

During the regular season, the Lions did not look anywhere near the side they have been for the past two seasons of SR, and I put that down purely to the loss of Ackerman and the effect he had on the players. However, in the past couple of games, I have seen a marked shift in the confidence levels, the belief and the performances of the team as a whole. Even those players who I have been bemoaning, the likes of Andries Coetzee, Elton Jantjies and Ross Cronje, have suddenly started to show good form, and more importantly creativity, again. And the forwards are working as a really tightly knit unit and REALLY working hard for each other like in the past seasons, there is a continuity there and I put that down to the effect of Whitely being back. In addition, most of this team have been in this spot already, twice, and I can't believe that they haven't learned a thing or two about big pressure games.

I have read a lot of talk about last week's game between the Canes and the Crusaders being the real final. Maybe if that had been at the front end of the competition but the Canes have looked really out of sorts since the test window. Their forward pack has been poor and the backs disjointed. The really poor decision making and aimless kicking last week was an indication of that. So I put last week's margin down to the Canes having lost their way for some strange reason. Not to take anything away from the Crusaders, they are mightily impressive and deserve to be held in such high regard.

I will be going with the plus and having a "heart" bet on an outright for the Lions.
Also a cheeky go on the HT/FT Crusaders/Lions @25

Okay, allegiances back on.

GO LIONS!!!

Oracle, I've been following your tips closely this year and even though I don't always agree I do value your input.

However aren't you letting your emotions make your bet for you? +10.5 on the Lions just doesn't look like a logical bet to me. Especially 5 units. It looks to me like people teased you about the Lions and you are betting on a miracle in the hope to prove people wrong.

Personally I reckon the Lions have heart but the Crusaders are next level right now.

There's always the possibility that you get the bet right but will it be because of luck or because of rugby knowledge and logical reasoning? From the video the only reasons why you are betting on the Lions are because they have a strong forward pack and because nobody's giving them a chance.

I'm just bringing this up because you have the guts to put yourself out there but in doing so you have to build a reputation and the reason why people are teasing you about the Lions is because of bets like these.

Since I'm writing all this now there's another article that you posted a while back:
"Why I and other successful punters will never win SuperBru". I'm very good at Superbru and have been now for a number of years. I've won lots of prizes and I enjoy it a lot. I use the points system to my advantage when making picks because just like betting, you have to analyse what's in front of you.

Now here's the kicker. I also do well at punting. Initially I didn't but these last three years I've done exceptionally well. So successful punters can do well in Superbru.

OK phew. I just wanted to get that off my chest. You are putting yourself out there Oracle and to do so you have to have thick skin. But always know that everyone else is watching and reading and in doing so we form our own opinions and you build a reputation.

I don't mean to criticise. I just get the perception that you sometimes let emotion drive your bets instead of sound reasoning.

All I'm hearing from the Lions backers are what a good team the Lions are. I agree that they have been playing good rugby at Ellispark (very important) the past 2 weeks. The week before that they lost in Durban against a team who lost by 30 against the Crusaders on an off day for the Crusaders. The problem is who they they are playing this week. I would have been bullish about the Crusaders no matter who they played. They are just in a class of their own. They don't let their opponents play. They soffocate you and put you under extreme pressure. The handicap seems big, but the Crusaders concede so few points that they themselves don't have to score too many to cover the handicap. With the Lions' leaky defence I expect the Crusaders to score more than enough though. I can't see the Lions staying within 20.

Hi Ruan,
This is my first post since joining the forum a few months ago - hope I don't muck-it-up..
I agree with everything you've said, and I too have appreciated Oracle's tips, and been largely successful on Superbru.
However, since the June break, I've lost loads of money on my bets and been so hurt by this, that I went all-in on the semis, got 100% right, and recouped massively. I've now gone all-in on the Saders at -18.5 Sunday night, for the very reasons that you mention. If they beat the cap (gone 32 on Superbru), I've had a magic season, and if not, well, I'll blame it on the June break - that's gambling.
In defense of Oracle though, I think he makes his case for a small/big miracle, as well as his (emotive) support for the Lions. If he's wrong ? Nothing lost. But if the miracle occurs... He'll be known as the best tipster in the world - whotta gamble - you've just gotta smile at the cheek of it. Go for it Oracle - you da man.
Cheers Forum, good luck with your picks. Regards, Kirkie.

Welcome to the forum Kirky! It's good to see you posting.

I hope I wasn't too harsh on Oracle. I'm trying to give constructive criticism.

If I may join the conversation, I don’t think you have been too harsh on Oracle but just gave a honest point of view.
To me, Oracle’s way of playing could be interpreted differently :
• Putting few units on alternative handicaps could be seen as someone who believe in what he’s doing ( which was the case with the Lions the past 2 weeks) but also being seen a being “greedy” or “overconfident” in a way that by simply taking the normal handicap, the bet would have been won and made some benefits, indeed smaller than with the alt. cap, but still a benefit and this is what matters in putting (Canes v Chiefs is the perfect example)
• Then I realize that in 95% of the cases this season, Oracle is never betting against SA, Blitzboks or Lions which once again could be seen as someone who puts his balls on the table (pardon my French) or someone who is blinded by his “love” for the team he is supporting. ( I am sure you are in benefits by betting on the three teams mentioned above, no doubt on that, but 200% sure you could have done better by removing your fan hat from time to time)

Now that said, I believe Oracle is good punter (IMO far from being the best of the world however) who believes deeply in his punt, has the gut to shared them and for that there is only one word : respect. However, I believe sticking with normal cap and being a bit less of a fan while punting but being more realistic would be beneficial in the long term.

Oracle, this is not a personal attack but just a fair, honest and hopefully constructive feedback.

Longue vie a Oracle ( I ve seen you speaking French on your Facebook page so hope you ll do to the same here )

Agree with you guys absolutely, really wasn't having a go at anybody.
It's taken me 3 months to get up the courage to post something, so huge respect for all you guys who put yourselves out there all the time.
Personally, I enjoy the differing views, consider them all, then make up my mind and do what I think is best. Reckon that's what we all do.
Thanks to all who contribute, and may you bet wisely. Cheers

Takes real guts to put your plays online for the world to see and its great to see the Oracle making some loot. As punters we all fighting against the Bookies so must applaud when our fellow punters make ammo. In saying that I think the Big O is riding the Lions wave after catching 2 big bets on them and hence his play on the +10.5 at bigger odds.

Personally think its madness and I am in the Saders -15.5 camp

Too much against the Lions against an All Black side playing in red. Let's just hope for a great game!

Break a leg lads

Marx to score a try and crusaders to win @ 4.0

Cettas wrote: Marx to score a try and crusaders to win @ 4.0

That's a very nice one. Where did you get that?

Ruan Fourie wrote:

Cettas wrote: Marx to score a try and crusaders to win @ 4.0

That's a very nice one. Where did you get that?

Sportingbet

Crusaders will probably win with some to spare but I'm steering clear of the handicap. In stead found something which appeals for a nice interest.

Any Lions replacement to score the last try @ 8/1 with Sunbet.

The likes of Erasmus, Schoeman and Dyantyi lurking there very possible one of them sneaks a late consolation score.

Caught the video now via the Twitter link and I have to say well done. Some technical gremlins but let’s blame Telkom.

I got some take-aways mainly on Lions points. I will wait for in-play as the bookies don’t move the line that fast when the other team scores, but rather moves it on elapsed time in the match. Should the Saders go 2 scores up I’ll be in on the unders.

Pierrebal
FYI - a french bookie is for the first time ever proposing which team will finish top 6 in the Top 14 so that could be available elsewhere later on.
I ll keep having a look and will let you know if I spot anything.

Pierrebal wrote: Caught the video now via the Twitter link and I have to say well done. Some technical gremlins but let’s blame Telkom.

I got some take-aways mainly on Lions points. I will wait for in-play as the bookies don’t move the line that fast when the other team scores, but rather moves it on elapsed time in the match. Should the Saders go 2 scores up I’ll be in on the unders.

In my case it was Vodacom!

Thanks for the feedback Pierrebal.

I reckon the Lions points line will be the one to get my interest as I am in agreement with BG that I don't see them scoring many.

Points lines are available on Sunbet. I’ve gone with the classic final play. Under match points. I’m just hoping the lions don’t contribute to much.

bradie82 wrote: Pierrebal
FYI - a french bookie is for the first time ever proposing which team will finish top 6 in the Top 14 so that could be available elsewhere later on.
I ll keep having a look and will let you know if I spot anything.

Great thank you for the info - could you let me know the name of the bookie? I'm in Switzerland so should be able to open an account.

Pierrebal wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Pierrebal
FYI - a french bookie is for the first time ever proposing which team will finish top 6 in the Top 14 so that could be available elsewhere later on.
I ll keep having a look and will let you know if I spot anything.

Great thank you for the info - could you let me know the name of the bookie? I'm in Switzerland so should be able to open an account.

Parionsweb but don’t expect great odds – French bookmaker are taxed and regulated and therefore odds are lower than a normal market

@Kirky, @Bradie82, @RuanFourie & @Thrasher

This is a great forum, sure I do not personally contribute each week with comments, I most definitely read everyones comments each week.

Thank you guys for all of your comments, I promise you I do not take any of it personally, I know that everyone of you on this forum would have a beer with me and we would find something in common, so seriously guys let it out, if you thunk I am a big prick tell me, if you love me do the same, really I dont mind.

I have taken a lot of abuse and criticism for my baking of the Lions and SA, the Lions have made me a profit for as long as I can remember, even in the year they lost every game, they did not lose every handicap, I am getting better at taking off the supporters hat, but I am actually punting the money, I am not like these guys on the internet that are tipping but not actually punting.

I honestly think this handicap is too big at +18.5, I may have a strike at that later today or tomorrow, but I am also looking for some 10/1 about the win, it seems too big as well, but that is my opinion.

Anyway, thank you for the comments, I value all of them, and most of all enjoy the game, or as Hanrick says I only enjoy winning games.

49.5 is the cut for the game which means 33.5/34.5 for Crusaders and 15.5/16.5 for Lions roughly.
The under 49.5 is tempting especially with a slight chance of rain during the game and with the quality in defence Saders demonstrated.
Time of first penalty/number of penalties could be interesting as this is a final so will wait for the whole scope of odds to be out before making any move

Nicely done with the Youtube video guys! Subscribed and will be watching the future videos.

And Oracle, thanks for the comments. I actually felt bad after posting all that and wanted to delete it. But we all make mistakes.

Keep up the good work everyone! And Oracle if you ever come up here to Joburg I'll stick you for a beer.

You wont get a bigger Lions supporter than me in a hurry, and sadly I have to be in Hanricks camp about tomorrows result. The Lions are most definitely not the second best team in this tournament, I have no doubt that if this was played "fairly" then they would already be licking their wounds after having had to travel and got beat. Having said that, rules are rules no matter how dumb that they are, and the Lions will continue with their dismal record in Christchurch. This team is peaking at the right time but imvho is not as good as last years team and that team couldnt win at home. They wont win away tomorrow, Oracle if you feel like donating, I'm sure you can do better than to a bookie.

Super Rugby aside, I must now comment on Currie Cup. Those of you that believe the Pumas may make the semis could be right. In particular, Free State will be vulnerable this year because of Northern Hemisphere focus. What does it help however to back a team to win, when at best they will play in the semis? Unless you have the ability to lay off at substantially shorter odds, you just being mugs. My value lies with the Sharks, I reckon that squad got to come good at some stage.

Bet365 just got the cut out and it is higher than sunbet : 53.5 game, 35.5 saders and 17.5 Lions with a under 7.5 tries @ 1.65 and and 6.5 @ 2.15
Need to think twice before making any move but the under 53.5 and 7.5 tries are very tempting
The Lions to score a penalty before 30" seems good as well

I see you can now get -16.5 at a couple of bookies.

bradie82 wrote: 49.5 is the cut for the game which means 33.5/34.5 for Crusaders and 15.5/16.5 for Lions roughly.
The under 49.5 is tempting especially with a slight chance of rain during the game and with the quality in defence Saders demonstrated.
Time of first penalty/number of penalties could be interesting as this is a final so will wait for the whole scope of odds to be out before making any move

Thanks bradie, will be taking the under 50.5 at sunbet @1.88 (3 Units). I unfortunately don't have an account with Bet365 yet.

Will also take the -7.5 HT on Crusaders @1.89 (3 Units)

Had a bit of time today so decided to take a close look at the tryscorer prices. Have had a look at every player's stats and their anytime and spread prices. I ended up with a shortlist of 7 or 8 potential bets and have whittled it down to these 3. Not saying these are the most likely tryscorers, just the ones whose prices seem to offer an appealing edge.

Buy Bryn Hall's try minutes at 9 (SPIN or SX)
Buy Courtnall Skosan's try minutes at 9 (SX)
Kwagga Smith to score a try at 4/1 (Lads or Coral)

I'd equate a buy at 9 as better than 4/1 anytime. Hall is 2/1 or less with the majority of firms and Skosan not much more generously priced. On their stats, both appear reasonably cheap buys. Even allowing for the extent to which the Lions are underdogs, I don't think Smith ranks as a 4/1 shot.

One try from any of them will be enough for profit, as long as it comes after the 28th minute in the case of the 2 spread bets!

Good luck with your bets and enjoy the game.

Right lads the final match of the season . Going minus 16.5 crusaders , main bet under 17.5 points lions , second main bet total points under 53.5 points and taking under lions tries at 2.5 at 13/20.

Enjoy the game .

As mentioned in the youtube chat - Lions just have to get off to a flyer tomorrow if they are to have any chance. Going to use the BetBoost with bet.co.za.
First scoring play - Lions try @ 15/2

great thoughts and posts, not had chance to get involved this week until now. I have been watching the cap line and if i'm honest was waiting for 20 and would have fired Lions.

But it's settled @ 17.5, and I'm a bit reluctant.

I thought Couch made an excellent point on the video re Marx and Kwagga, and I like the following:

1st Lions try - Marx @ 11/2, Kwagga @ 10/1.

Will make a call on points/caps in am. Hopefully conditions good, although Saders shirts line extremely high for a final.

Right have flown over from Oz to the game tonight. Right now the weather is holding should be dry but could be a frost and/or fog by kick off. Similar conditions to last year's semi but not quite as cold. Anyway taking Crus by 21-30, and first score Crusaders penalty. My main bet placed at the start of the season as mentioned previously so hoping they can bring it for the fans. Go Crusaders !

Under 54.5 points @ 17/20 my main play