Vuelta a España 2018

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5 years 7 months ago #1 by mackem
Vuelta a España 2018 was created by mackem
Vuelta starts this weekend, I'll be hunting for stage wins rather than the outrights but here is the latest GC betting from Sunbet

Porte 11/4
Simon Yates 11/4
Quintana 6/1
Angel Lopez 9/1
Valverde 11/1
Uran 16/1
Aru 20/1
Keldermann 22/1
Landa 30/1

Always a good tour to watch, any outright thoughts ahead of Stage 1 most welcome

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5 years 7 months ago #2 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Convinced Chris to do a Vuelta betting preview live at 20h15



Couch may join us at some point

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5 years 7 months ago #3 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Vuelta Outrights
Red Jersey
Sky have not been clear ( What's new? ) on their outright leader and I think de la Cruz and Kwaitkowski will be protected in the first week to see how they go. I'm prepared to take a chance that Kwaitkowski will do enough for the team to keep him in contention deep into the tour. I know Pinot is not a great fan of the heat but all he has to do is stay in contention during the first week. The second and third weeks are expected to be cooler.
Podium
Pinot @ 4/1
Top 10
Kwaitkowski @ 7/2
Green Jersey
There are 6 sprint stages, 9 mountain stages and the ITT. Last year Froome won this jersey with 6 climbers in the top 7. The only sprinter being Trentin who was 2nd. If he stays on his bike and, as expected wins the ITT I have high hopes for this bet
Podium
Porte @ 15/4
Team
They will put riders in the break and can't get hurt at these odds
Astana @ 11/1
Will leave the mountains until Tuesday
Match bets/Exotics
Just one here
De Gendt to win over 0.5 stages @ 11/4

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5 years 7 months ago #4 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Vann just to be clear - are u going for Porte to finish top3 in the points?

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5 years 7 months ago #5 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018

Couch Critic wrote: Vann just to be clear - are u going for Porte to finish top3 in the points?

Yep - All stages carry exactly the same points on the line - 25 down to 1 for top 15. As mentioned Trentin was only sprinter in top 7 on the points jersey last year.

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5 years 7 months ago #6 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Stage 1
Will start small on the stages
Top 3
Edmondson @ 40/1

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5 years 7 months ago #7 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Yes thanks I know the points setup- just wasnt sure if u meant Kwiat of Porte. Also Im not quite sure Porte will be the favourite for the ITT later in the race. But agree that he could be a solid punt in this market. I am considering Kwiat or Yates.

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5 years 7 months ago #8 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Dennis wins like a 7/20 shot should yesterday and we are already onto a tough stage today with no major climbs but enough tough ones to make it a really difficult ride if raced hard

The break must have a chance as there is no obvious favourite here (Sagan if he is in top form but that seems doubtful) however BMC will likely try to protect the jersey and I think the break will be reeled in

I like Valverde 6/1 and 15/10 a top 3 (0.5 units and 1.5 units) as while he would prefer a tougher final climb he has shown he can sprint on a flatter finish as well.

I am also taking a unit on Trentin/Sagan at 9/10, taking a view that Sagan is not going to be at his best

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5 years 7 months ago #9 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Vuelta a España 2018
I think some sprinters will think they have a chance today and will do the chasing only to find out the final hump is a bit too tough.

I see your Valverde Brent and will raise you Kwiat. Recon he is in prime form and hoping he has the kick to beat Valverde to the line. Got him at 5/1. Nothing big but if it is clear that the break will be caught I migth add a bit more in-running.

Trentin is on song at present and I will follow you on the matchup against Sagan. Always tough betting against arguably the best all round cyclist in the world but it might be one of the few times that there is some value in opposing him.

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5 years 7 months ago #10 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Adding Goncalves @80/1 and
Simon Yates over Dan Martin @15/10 - Just think they should be about equal on a stage like this so a touch of value for me there

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5 years 7 months ago #11 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Porte finished the prologue before TV coverage started so I could not read his body language but he was 30 seconds slower then I expected ( should have been a few seconds faster then S Yates ). I don't know if this is because his tummy bug is worse than they are letting on or if he is just pissed off with Ochowicz and is marking time until his move to Trek. Whatever, my points punt looks dead and buried.
Today's stage
Benoot @ 25/1
Kelderman @ 150/1

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5 years 7 months ago #12 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Stage 2, nibbled at Dylan Teuns at 20/1, another guy leaving BMC next season, not sure if that helps his case or not in terms of team tactics today but rode a good TT so in good shape

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5 years 7 months ago #13 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Vuelta a España 2018

Brent Graham wrote: Dennis wins like a 7/20 shot should yesterday and we are already onto a tough stage today with no major climbs but enough tough ones to make it a really difficult ride if raced hard

The break must have a chance as there is no obvious favourite here (Sagan if he is in top form but that seems doubtful) however BMC will likely try to protect the jersey and I think the break will be reeled in

I like Valverde 6/1 and 15/10 a top 3 (0.5 units and 1.5 units) as while he would prefer a tougher final climb he has shown he can sprint on a flatter finish as well.

I am also taking a unit on Trentin/Sagan at 9/10, taking a view that Sagan is not going to be at his best


Niiiice early winner there BG - well played!!

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5 years 7 months ago #14 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Cheers Couch a nice start, nice call the Yates match bet and stiff on Kwia, he had me worried

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5 years 7 months ago #15 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Can't see past Viviani tomorrow, strong team, decent climber and good form, 18/10 at Sunbet

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5 years 7 months ago #16 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Good start there guys. Stupid of me not to follow the excellent Valverde pick but that was the story of my week across all sports. Missed the Kelderman podium at 40/1 by one place yesterday so hope to go one better today
Top 3 Gibbons @ 11/1

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5 years 7 months ago #17 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
And the queue steadily forms behind The Vann as they patiently await the BG pick for Stage 4.

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5 years 7 months ago #18 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
LOL Vann I am feeling the heat - the laugh today is that I was looking for a Quickstep jersey and couldn't see one only to find Morkov and Viviani are National Champions

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5 years 7 months ago - 5 years 7 months ago #19 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
It looks a very tough stage, going to do a live You Tube preview at 23h15 for those with insomnia


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Last edit: 5 years 7 months ago by Brent Graham.

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5 years 7 months ago #20 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Unbeaten record very much on the line today - small interest

Da Marchi 22/1
Padun 66/1
Teuns 33/1

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5 years 7 months ago #21 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Vuelta a España 2018
You are traveling well Brent, I'm a bit clueless about today, nibbled at Cummings at 50/1

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5 years 7 months ago #22 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Thanks for the preview Brent. Am going for one from the peloton - one in between - and one from a break.
Peloton
Win S Yates @ 17/1
Peloton or Break
e/w Kuss @ 80/1
Break
e/w Mendes @ 179/1

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5 years 7 months ago #23 by WillowWarrior
Replied by WillowWarrior on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Thanks for the preview BG.

Like the breakaway options

De Marchi 20/1
Teuns 16/1
Benoot 17/1
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5 years 7 months ago #24 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Not sure if the break stays today as a few sprint teams may assist in the chase.
In case of break
Cataldo @ 80/1
Break or Bunch finish
e/w Gibbons @ 200/1

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5 years 7 months ago #25 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Classic sprint stage today. At 5/10 Viviani is too short for me so taking a dip on the clinically insane Bouhanni who spent 188km yesterday arguing with his DS and punching the team car ( which has been relegated to last in the convoy ) and finished 8min behind the second last rider with a 30second time penalty for his actions - probably not a good bet to follow lol
e/w
The always entertaining Bouhanni @ 11/1

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5 years 7 months ago #26 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Vuelta a España 2018

The Vann wrote: Classic sprint stage today. At 5/10 Viviani is too short for me so taking a dip on the clinically insane Bouhanni who spent 188km yesterday arguing with his DS and punching the team car ( which has been relegated to last in the convoy ) and finished 8min behind the second last rider with a 30second time penalty for his actions - probably not a good bet to follow lol
e/w
The always entertaining Bouhanni @ 11/1


Love it bru :)

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5 years 7 months ago #27 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Well played Vann - I stayed out although did consider Bouhanni for a podium - never thought he could beat Viviani though

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5 years 7 months ago #28 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Scraped home yesterday. Could not pick one rider in a 25 man break two days ago but that is no reason to give up. Expect a break today and am going with
Devenyns @ 46/1
Cataldo @ 119/1
Gibbons @ 200/1

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5 years 7 months ago #29 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Just one for me today. From the profile the final km does not look too steep for
Stage 8
Viviani @ 9/2

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5 years 7 months ago #30 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Stage 9 should see a big GC shake up and Couch and Mackem will be joining me to preview the stage at 8am - you can watch live or catch the recording


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5 years 7 months ago #31 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Taking Couches and my matchbet double

Uran/Pinot Bennett/Buchmann at 28/10

Valverde 13/2 and throwing in Woods at 66/1 as Couch made a convincing case for him in the preview

1140 start lads and full coverage

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5 years 7 months ago #32 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Great show guys Thanks. I think the break has a better than even chance because Astana lead the team comp and Moviestar are always interested in that comp. In theory both teams will do everything they can to place a rider in the break - which I expect to be pretty large today. One GC for me and a break selection ( Like Couch I will take in play if I come up empty on the break )
Win
S Yates @ 9/2
Top 3
Formolo @ 40/1
Kudus @ 66/1
Villella @ 66/1
Amador @ 100/1

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5 years 7 months ago #33 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Vuelta a España 2018
for a Sunday interest Pinot 22/1 in-running.

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5 years 7 months ago #34 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Stiff Chris, I think Mollema must have gone odds on with 4km to go but credit to King for keeping going

The Couch/BG double arrives to ensure a profitable day

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5 years 7 months ago #35 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Jeeeez sooo stiff Chris!! Reckon Mollema had it in the bag if the road didnt flatten out a bit toward the end and also they just let King get a few too many seconds ahead eish.

Think we got a pretty good indication of where a few of the top contenders stand with regard to each other today. I'm sure we'll have another chat about it but Yates less impressive and Quintana, Lopez and Kelderman looking solid. I reckon Keldermann's odds are going to drop big time by the morning.

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5 years 7 months ago #36 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Hope you guys had Mollema e/w at Sunbet. I thought the bet was in the bag 7km out.
Expecting Sagan to leave the Vuelta after stage 12 which means today is about his last chance to win in his favorite stripey jersey.

Sagan @ 9/2

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5 years 7 months ago #37 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Vann, has Sagan said anything about leaving?

Looking at the points betting there is

13/10 Valverde
Sagan 15/10
Viviani 5/2

Take Sagan out and there must be some value there?

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5 years 7 months ago #38 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Small interest for me today in what looks nailed on for a breakaway

Woods 50/1
De Marchi 28/1

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5 years 7 months ago #39 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Hope you right with the break on Wednesday Brent

Victor Campenaerts 40/1
Cummings 28/1

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5 years 7 months ago - 5 years 7 months ago #40 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Before the start of the Vuelta the word from Bora was Sagan would use the first 12 stages as preparation for the worlds. Last night he said he would try to keep the green jersey as long as possible. The worlds finishes with a 2.8km climb at 11.5% with ramps of 25%. The only way Sagan wins is from a break which means he cannot have a full Vuelta in his legs if he wants to ride 265km in a break over a lumpy course two weeks later. My call would be he pulls before the end of the Vuelta.
Two from the break for me today both e/w
Cataldo @ 125/1
Gibbons @ 150/1

(Noticed that Bora tried to put Formolo in the break on Sunday. If they try the same today it would confirm Sagan is not here for the full Vuelta. We don't get the start but I will try and pick up info from the missus who follows many riders and journalists on twitter)
Last edit: 5 years 7 months ago by The Vann.
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5 years 7 months ago #41 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Sagan update
Bora have been trying to get Postlberger in the break. They would not do this if Sagan was intent on winning the green jersey. There is no danger to Buchmann's GC position today so they would normally keep the entire team in the peloton to chase down the break for the Sagan sprint. ( Today's stage does suit him )
Odds on Sagan staying till end of Vuelta down to 1/10
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5 years 7 months ago #42 by The Vann
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Brent Graham wrote: Small interest for me today in what looks nailed on for a breakaway

Woods 50/1
De Marchi 28/1


You're a friggin cycling Gold Mine BG - Did follow on De Marchi - Thanks

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5 years 7 months ago #43 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Thanks Vann, tough one today and Bora should work to bring it back for what should be a much reduced sprint.

If he is there at the end Viviani is a worthy favourite but I get the feeling Sagan is riding into form and that his team will make it tough today - this looks a seriously difficult stage

Going to stay away from the stage result as I give the break a chance and will take 11/10 Sagan/Viviani as my only punt for the day

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5 years 7 months ago #44 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Today's stage is perfect for a break with the Cat 3 right at the off unfortunately I don't believe there will be many volunteers to be chased for 180km by the sprint teams. BMC were very active yesterday so, in the unlikely event that we do get a large break, I'm having a beer on the longest odds BMC rider I could find
Top 3
Bookwalter @ 100/1

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5 years 7 months ago #45 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Nice one with de Marchi on Wednesday Brent.

Thomas de Gendt carrying my beer money today

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5 years 7 months ago #46 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Stiff with TDG Mackem he looked a runner

Decided while relaxing and watching golf to put a quick Vuelta Stage 13 preview together


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5 years 7 months ago #47 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Only proper goat legs will get you up that final WALL. So a good climber that gets in the break is my call for the day.
Majka @ 20/1

Would have loves to have taken Nairo and Lopez in some match bets but unfortunately they have been paired against each other on that front...!

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5 years 7 months ago #48 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Like the logic guys so will follow on Woods and Majka and adding
Porte @ 25/1

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5 years 7 months ago #49 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Vuelta a España 2018
I'm 50/50 on breakaway chances on Friday so one escapee and one from the GC

Following you guys with Majka and then throwing in Quintana

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5 years 7 months ago #50 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Vuelta a España 2018
Stiff with Majka on Friday guys

Saturday, I'll go with Formolo from the break and stick with Quintana from GC.

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