Vuelta a España 2018
- mackem
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Porte 11/4
Simon Yates 11/4
Quintana 6/1
Angel Lopez 9/1
Valverde 11/1
Uran 16/1
Aru 20/1
Keldermann 22/1
Landa 30/1
Always a good tour to watch, any outright thoughts ahead of Stage 1 most welcome
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- Brent Graham
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Couch may join us at some point
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- The Vann
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Red Jersey
Sky have not been clear ( What's new? ) on their outright leader and I think de la Cruz and Kwaitkowski will be protected in the first week to see how they go. I'm prepared to take a chance that Kwaitkowski will do enough for the team to keep him in contention deep into the tour. I know Pinot is not a great fan of the heat but all he has to do is stay in contention during the first week. The second and third weeks are expected to be cooler.
Podium
Pinot @ 4/1
Top 10
Kwaitkowski @ 7/2
Green Jersey
There are 6 sprint stages, 9 mountain stages and the ITT. Last year Froome won this jersey with 6 climbers in the top 7. The only sprinter being Trentin who was 2nd. If he stays on his bike and, as expected wins the ITT I have high hopes for this bet
Podium
Porte @ 15/4
Team
They will put riders in the break and can't get hurt at these odds
Astana @ 11/1
Will leave the mountains until Tuesday
Match bets/Exotics
Just one here
De Gendt to win over 0.5 stages @ 11/4
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- The Vann
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Yep - All stages carry exactly the same points on the line - 25 down to 1 for top 15. As mentioned Trentin was only sprinter in top 7 on the points jersey last year.Couch Critic wrote: Vann just to be clear - are u going for Porte to finish top3 in the points?
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Will start small on the stages
Top 3
Edmondson @ 40/1
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The break must have a chance as there is no obvious favourite here (Sagan if he is in top form but that seems doubtful) however BMC will likely try to protect the jersey and I think the break will be reeled in
I like Valverde 6/1 and 15/10 a top 3 (0.5 units and 1.5 units) as while he would prefer a tougher final climb he has shown he can sprint on a flatter finish as well.
I am also taking a unit on Trentin/Sagan at 9/10, taking a view that Sagan is not going to be at his best
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I see your Valverde Brent and will raise you Kwiat. Recon he is in prime form and hoping he has the kick to beat Valverde to the line. Got him at 5/1. Nothing big but if it is clear that the break will be caught I migth add a bit more in-running.
Trentin is on song at present and I will follow you on the matchup against Sagan. Always tough betting against arguably the best all round cyclist in the world but it might be one of the few times that there is some value in opposing him.
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Simon Yates over Dan Martin @15/10 - Just think they should be about equal on a stage like this so a touch of value for me there
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Today's stage
Benoot @ 25/1
Kelderman @ 150/1
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Brent Graham wrote: Dennis wins like a 7/20 shot should yesterday and we are already onto a tough stage today with no major climbs but enough tough ones to make it a really difficult ride if raced hard
The break must have a chance as there is no obvious favourite here (Sagan if he is in top form but that seems doubtful) however BMC will likely try to protect the jersey and I think the break will be reeled in
I like Valverde 6/1 and 15/10 a top 3 (0.5 units and 1.5 units) as while he would prefer a tougher final climb he has shown he can sprint on a flatter finish as well.
I am also taking a unit on Trentin/Sagan at 9/10, taking a view that Sagan is not going to be at his best
Niiiice early winner there BG - well played!!
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Top 3 Gibbons @ 11/1
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Da Marchi 22/1
Padun 66/1
Teuns 33/1
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Peloton
Win S Yates @ 17/1
Peloton or Break
e/w Kuss @ 80/1
Break
e/w Mendes @ 179/1
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- WillowWarrior
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Like the breakaway options
De Marchi 20/1
Teuns 16/1
Benoot 17/1
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In case of break
Cataldo @ 80/1
Break or Bunch finish
e/w Gibbons @ 200/1
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e/w
The always entertaining Bouhanni @ 11/1
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The Vann wrote: Classic sprint stage today. At 5/10 Viviani is too short for me so taking a dip on the clinically insane Bouhanni who spent 188km yesterday arguing with his DS and punching the team car ( which has been relegated to last in the convoy ) and finished 8min behind the second last rider with a 30second time penalty for his actions - probably not a good bet to follow lol
e/w
The always entertaining Bouhanni @ 11/1
Love it bru
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Devenyns @ 46/1
Cataldo @ 119/1
Gibbons @ 200/1
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Stage 8
Viviani @ 9/2
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Uran/Pinot Bennett/Buchmann at 28/10
Valverde 13/2 and throwing in Woods at 66/1 as Couch made a convincing case for him in the preview
1140 start lads and full coverage
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Win
S Yates @ 9/2
Top 3
Formolo @ 40/1
Kudus @ 66/1
Villella @ 66/1
Amador @ 100/1
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The Couch/BG double arrives to ensure a profitable day
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Think we got a pretty good indication of where a few of the top contenders stand with regard to each other today. I'm sure we'll have another chat about it but Yates less impressive and Quintana, Lopez and Kelderman looking solid. I reckon Keldermann's odds are going to drop big time by the morning.
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Expecting Sagan to leave the Vuelta after stage 12 which means today is about his last chance to win in his favorite stripey jersey.
Sagan @ 9/2
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- Brent Graham
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Looking at the points betting there is
13/10 Valverde
Sagan 15/10
Viviani 5/2
Take Sagan out and there must be some value there?
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Woods 50/1
De Marchi 28/1
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- mackem
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Victor Campenaerts 40/1
Cummings 28/1
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Two from the break for me today both e/w
Cataldo @ 125/1
Gibbons @ 150/1
(Noticed that Bora tried to put Formolo in the break on Sunday. If they try the same today it would confirm Sagan is not here for the full Vuelta. We don't get the start but I will try and pick up info from the missus who follows many riders and journalists on twitter)
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Bora have been trying to get Postlberger in the break. They would not do this if Sagan was intent on winning the green jersey. There is no danger to Buchmann's GC position today so they would normally keep the entire team in the peloton to chase down the break for the Sagan sprint. ( Today's stage does suit him )
Odds on Sagan staying till end of Vuelta down to 1/10
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Brent Graham wrote: Small interest for me today in what looks nailed on for a breakaway
Woods 50/1
De Marchi 28/1
You're a friggin cycling Gold Mine BG - Did follow on De Marchi - Thanks
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If he is there at the end Viviani is a worthy favourite but I get the feeling Sagan is riding into form and that his team will make it tough today - this looks a seriously difficult stage
Going to stay away from the stage result as I give the break a chance and will take 11/10 Sagan/Viviani as my only punt for the day
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Top 3
Bookwalter @ 100/1
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- mackem
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Thomas de Gendt carrying my beer money today
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Decided while relaxing and watching golf to put a quick Vuelta Stage 13 preview together
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Majka @ 20/1
Would have loves to have taken Nairo and Lopez in some match bets but unfortunately they have been paired against each other on that front...!
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Porte @ 25/1
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- mackem
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Following you guys with Majka and then throwing in Quintana
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- mackem
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Saturday, I'll go with Formolo from the break and stick with Quintana from GC.
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