Currie Cup wk 3, Pro 14 wk 1, Aviva Prem + other rugby

Bristol on a plus 6.5 or around that mark appeals in opening game of Premiership. Will be a huge home crowd for them, about 25,000 expected at stadium, and this is a fierce local derby.

Would even be looking at the win around 2/1.

Bristol on the plus is great value. They have made great signings and have a more than competent coach. Elsewhere, Warriors +12.5 against Wasps looks good

southpaw wrote: Bristol on a plus 6.5 or around that mark appeals in opening game of Premiership. Will be a huge home crowd for them, about 25,000 expected at stadium, and this is a fierce local derby.

Would even be looking at the win around 2/1.

Will hold fire for now, just got a news alert that key man Charles Piatau picked up a knock on weekend and is a doubt for Friday. He is their top player.

If the Cheetahs have to put together their starting 15 from the 2 sides we've seen over the past 2 weeks they're going to lose by 40+. Am I missing something? Are there any new players joining their squad or are Munster missing players?

-21.5 at first glance seems about 20 points off the mark.

Agreed matty, I expect the Cheetahs to get absolutely pummeled. Will be taking that handicap.

southpaw wrote:

southpaw wrote: Bristol on a plus 6.5 or around that mark appeals in opening game of Premiership. Will be a huge home crowd for them, about 25,000 expected at stadium, and this is a fierce local derby.

Would even be looking at the win around 2/1.

Will hold fire for now, just got a news alert that key man Charles Piatau picked up a knock on weekend and is a doubt for Friday. He is their top player.

I reckon its more serious than a knock
French Rugby Newspaper are mentioning 4 to 6 months
On the Gallagher premiership news, Biggar and Gopperth both got injured as well and should be out for few weeks (tbc)
As mentioned earlier by someone else this month on a outright discussion, Gloucester will be a very strong team this season and i totally agree with that statement
I saw their friendly game Thursday night aginst dragons and despite few players missing, i ve been impressed by the quality of the game played and with Saints home on Saturday, I reckon Gloucester should win this one by 5/6 at least (Saints were poor last season and without Biggar and few key players left)
I will be taking points and tries later this week but taking already
Gloucester -5.5 @ 1.72

Hi fellas, long time lurker first time poster.

My thoughts on some of the games mentioned this weekend.

Munster will be without their Irish contingent (Stander, O' Mahony, Beirne, Murray, Carbery etc.) this weekend and a few of their better players are still coming back from injury (Cloete, Farrell maybe). Team news will clarify things on Friday but I wouldn't be too confident yet.

I like the look of the Zebre minus versus the Kings. Zebre improved in a big way last year, have a big enough pack and some very good backs (Canna, Boni, Mizonni, Padovani). Doesn't look lke the Kings have had any pre-season games and are without some key guys e.g. Coleman.

Also I was wondering if anyone saw Agen play at the weekend? I watched the Perpignan game and they looked awful. As poor a standard as I've seen in the Top 14 in a long time. Agen will look to give them nothing as they'll likely be in a relegation battle, the cap currently stands at -8. Wondering if Agen are much better as they lost some of their stars from last year.

Sorry I didn't want to start a new thread yet but I see WSB is out with Rugby Championship lines. -4.5 Aus vs SA which seems rather low. -5.5 @2.00 available and definitely gonna take some of that so long.

bradie82 wrote:

southpaw wrote:

southpaw wrote: Bristol on a plus 6.5 or around that mark appeals in opening game of Premiership. Will be a huge home crowd for them, about 25,000 expected at stadium, and this is a fierce local derby.

Would even be looking at the win around 2/1.

Will hold fire for now, just got a news alert that key man Charles Piatau picked up a knock on weekend and is a doubt for Friday. He is their top player.

I reckon its more serious than a knock
French Rugby Newspaper are mentioning 4 to 6 months
On the Gallagher premiership news, Biggar and Gopperth both got injured as well and should be out for few weeks (tbc)
As mentioned earlier by someone else this month on a outright discussion, Gloucester will be a very strong team this season and i totally agree with that statement
I saw their friendly game Thursday night aginst dragons and despite few players missing, i ve been impressed by the quality of the game played and with Saints home on Saturday, I reckon Gloucester should win this one by 5/6 at least (Saints were poor last season and without Biggar and few key players left)
I will be taking points and tries later this week but taking already
Gloucester -5.5 @ 1.72

thanks Bradie, yes i just got a quick heads up via Twitter this am and now see more detailed reports suggest a while out. Big blow for Bristol.

Yep Gloucester were my tip on here for 16/1 outright, i wasn't jumping in on game 1 until seen more team news. Tempted now to take the -7 @ 10/11, but trying to find out if Naiyaravoro is playing for Saints.

@ plloyd88 : I watched the first half of the Clermont Agen game on to be honest Agen was not ridiculous but Clermont was just better and it was going too fast for them. REckon Agen should win against Perpignan but the cap is well set up. May I ask you on which bookie you find this cap please?
@ Southpaw : Naiyaravoro was supposed to arrive late last week or early this week in England so I doubt he will be playing this week end

On the topic of injuries, seems like Gopperth is out for the season while Biggar could only be out this Saturday and the club is even optimistic he will be playing - does not change my bet on the Gloucester cap

Kings & Cheetahs touring squads - 23 will play:

Kings (28):
Schalk Ferreira, Justin Forwood, Lupumlo Mguca, Xandre Vos, Alandre van Rooyen, Mike Willemse, Tango Balekile, Luvuyo Pupuma, Schalk Oelofse, JC Astle, Bobby de Wee, Henry Brandon Brown, Stephan De Wit, Martinus Burger, Ruaan Lerm, Andisa Ntsila, Rudi van Rooyen, Godlen Masimla, Martin du Toit, Harlon Klaasen, Berton Klaasen, Michael Makase, Yaw Penxe, Bjorn Basson, Masixole Banda, Michael Botha, Ulrich Beyers

Cheetahs (26):
Ox Nche, Erich de Jager, Charles Marais, Joseph Dweba, Jacques du Toit, Marnus van der Merwe, Luan de Bruin, Aranos Coetzee, Justin Basson, JP du Preez, Walt Steenkamp, Junior Pokomela, Oupa Mohoje, Aidon Davis, Jasper Wiese, Shaun Venter, Tian Meyer, Ruben de Haas, Tian Schoeman, Ernst Stapelberg, William Small-Smith, Nico Lee, Benhard Janse van Rensburg, Rabz Maxwane, Malcolm Jaer, Ryno Eksteen

Kings & Cheetahs squads look VERY average to me...not expecting a lot of these teams during this Pro14...reckon Cheetahs will even struggle with their home games this campaign... SA rugby in a bit of a mess with all the 100's of players playing in Europe & Japan...local depth becoming a huge problem.

NicG wrote: Kings & Cheetahs squads look VERY average to me...not expecting a lot of these teams during this Pro14...reckon Cheetahs will even struggle with their home games this campaign... SA rugby in a bit of a mess with all the 100's of players playing in Europe & Japan...local depth becoming a huge problem.

Have to agree with you NicG , SA teams will receive a proper hiding this year in the PRO14 , will be opposing them as much as possible.

Some Currie cup caps coming out:

Pumas +3.5 v WP
Bulls +1.5 v Lions XV
FS XV +45.5 v Sharks XV

Anyone know if any of the Boks fringe members or squad members will be released to play Currie cup this week in order to get some game time?

Have just broken all kind of betting rules for myself regarding maximum bets. Started shivering when I saw the handicap for the Sharks is only 16.5. Have had one of my biggest bets ever on that. Christmas has come early!

it has jumped up to- 20-5 lol WSB has it at - 45,5

is this real ??

hanrick wrote: Have just broken all kind of betting rules for myself regarding maximum bets. Started shivering when I saw the handicap for the Sharks is only 16.5. Have had one of my biggest bets ever on that. Christmas has come early!

I see they have moved it up to 20.5, also went big

hanrick wrote: Have just broken all kind of betting rules for myself regarding maximum bets. Started shivering when I saw the handicap for the Sharks is only 16.5. Have had one of my biggest bets ever on that. Christmas has come early!

May I ask where Hanrick? I only see Sharks handicap at 42.5 - and if you meant Sale Sharks, that is at 3.5

At the time of writing Betex has it as sharks -20,5 and WSB has it at Sharks -42,5 taken one plus and one minus and hoping for the middle.

MrMeeseeks86 wrote:

hanrick wrote: Have just broken all kind of betting rules for myself regarding maximum bets. Started shivering when I saw the handicap for the Sharks is only 16.5. Have had one of my biggest bets ever on that. Christmas has come early!

May I ask where Hanrick? I only see Sharks handicap at 42.5 - and if you meant Sale Sharks, that is at 3.5

Don't really know anything about Sape Shark. I took Sharks -16.5 at 9/10 vs Cheetahs. Bet was with Betxchange. They have since moved it out to 20.5 and then to 25.5.

I guess the 42.5 you're talking of is with WSB. You won't catch me near those snakes' website.

hanrick wrote:

MrMeeseeks86 wrote:

hanrick wrote: Have just broken all kind of betting rules for myself regarding maximum bets. Started shivering when I saw the handicap for the Sharks is only 16.5. Have had one of my biggest bets ever on that. Christmas has come early!

May I ask where Hanrick? I only see Sharks handicap at 42.5 - and if you meant Sale Sharks, that is at 3.5

Don't really know anything about Sale Shark. I took Sharks -16.5 at 9/10 vs Cheetahs. Bet was with Betxchange. They have since moved it out to 20.5 and then to 25.5.

I guess the 42.5 you're talking of is with WSB. You won't catch me near those snakes' website.

hanrick wrote:

MrMeeseeks86 wrote:

hanrick wrote: Have just broken all kind of betting rules for myself regarding maximum bets. Started shivering when I saw the handicap for the Sharks is only 16.5. Have had one of my biggest bets ever on that. Christmas has come early!

May I ask where Hanrick? I only see Sharks handicap at 42.5 - and if you meant Sale Sharks, that is at 3.5

Don't really know anything about Sape Shark. I took Sharks -16.5 at 9/10 vs Cheetahs. Bet was with Betxchange. They have since moved it out to 20.5 and then to 25.5.

I guess the 42.5 you're talking of is with WSB. You won't catch me near those snakes' website.

Ah okay, thank you! Yeah, quite a large difference. Very strange.

14 players will be out for the Scarlets for their opening game Saturday in Belfast vs Ulster: Paul Asquith, Jake Ball, Will Boyde, Angus O'Brian, Dylan Evans, Jonathan Evans, Wyn Jones, Johnny McNicholl, Hadleigh Parkes, Lewis Rawlins, Aaron Shingler, Leigh Halfpenny, Uzair Cassiem and Samson Lee. This is quite a huge list with 6 of them playing the final against Leinster last season but this is a hard one to call : Ulster is not the team it used to be, they loss of players like Payne, Bowe or Piutau but always hard to win at Kingspan Stadium (lost again Leinster and Edinburgh only last season).
Ulster dnb @ 1.90 seems like a good bet but waiting on some pro14 expert to share their thoughts.

@bradie82 I use oddschecker.com

Scarlets are weakened but in fairness have good depth. Ulster will also be without their Irish stars and don't have a whole lot of depth. They are good at home but I wouldn't be too quick to back against Scarlets who'll have weapons like Patchell, Davies and Evans.

WSB now has Sharks - 32.5

Unfortunately I don't have an account with BetXchange so missed out on that gem.

plloyd88, do you know if the 32 Irish players involved in the summer tour in Australia are out for the first game of the season please? Is it like the French top 14 were all players involved could not be selected?

Most players but not all, I know Ross Byrne will be playing for Leinster this weekend but he didn't play a minute on tour. If they played any time at all I doubt they'll be available but if they didn't they might.

Most players but not all, I know Ross Byrne will be playing for Leinster this weekend but he didn't play a minute on tour. If they played any time at all I doubt they'll be available but if they didn't they might.

The Welsh teams are a little off the pace at the moment. The caveat is that pre-season can make us all look silly...so be careful. But I have a big big feeling that the Welsh will need a few more weeks....
Fri 19.35 Cardiff + 6 v Leinster -6
Fri 19.35 Ospreys - 6 v Edinburgh +6
Sat 17,15 Scarlets +1 v Ulster -1
Sat 19.30 Dragons -7 v Benneton +7

Oppose the Welsh teams on the handicap...but only if you want an interest,,,none of these are big plays....

@ Trasher6
Agree that this is not a big play but managed to get Ulster @ 2.24 & 2.12 on Betfair Exchange (half unit on each) and at this price, the value was clearly on Ulster

Taranaki to win and under 56.5 match points at 17/10.

I took a beating last weekend, got the AB game completely wrong.

Taranaki win in Mitre 10 cup this morning @ 1.44 to rebuild the bank

Well played guys. Brad, I'm also starting to punt teams to win straight up if at least 4/10 and handicap looks tricky. See that ended bang on the line.

Bay of Plenty +10.5 is a gift. Also looking at a Pumas outright vs WP this weekend. Wellington -35.5 vs Southland is tasty.

Agree on Pumas, but really hoped for at least 2/1 after WP's win against the Cheetahs. Pumas vs WP is a game I have been waiting for and will take the best price I can get on Pumas.

I see Ardie Savea and Perenara is back for Wellington, but with the amount of rain predicted for Wellington on Friday I, I would stay away from such a big handicap

As much as I would like the Pumas to win I think WP are worthy favorites

Have just seen the WP team and it looks seriously good on paper. Starting to have 2nd thoughts...

I m still going with over despite 90% of the games ending up in under in the Mitre Cup

Auckland v Waikato
Good weather, the 2 teams are most of the time this season going for try but rather than score a penalty

Over 2.5 tries HT @ 1.55
Over 6.5 tries @1.75

shaft wrote: Well played guys. Brad, I'm also starting to punt teams to win straight up if at least 4/10 and handicap looks tricky. See that ended bang on the line.

Cheers Shaft, like you say it is perhaps a decent strategy if the cap is well set.

Testing it further on Auckland to beat Waikato, who have made 7 changes, @ 1.44.
(Placed earlier today with Skybet but I see its come in since)

HT/FT Auckland/Auckland just under 8/10 with Sunbet
Auckland -7.5 @ 17/20 with Hollywood

Hey Guys,

I am "dumb or mute bob" usually, but noticed that my fav team, Wellington Lions have a very good team this week. What a backline:
15 Wes Goosen
14 Ben Lam !!!
13 Matt Proctor
12 Thomas Umaga-Jensen !
11 Malo Tuitama !
10 Jackson Garden-Bachop !
9 TJ Perenara AB

Pack is strong this time with Fifita and Ardie Savea.. and my future picked AB hooker is starting (Aumua). Thats big diff on flanker and hooker posi.
8 Teariki Ben-Nicholas
7 Ardie Savea !!!
6 Vaea Fifita !!!
5 Will Mangos
4 James Blackwell
3 Joel Hintz
2 Asafo Aumua !!!
1 Tolu Fahamokioa

Bench is nothing special to be honest. 16 James O'Reilly 17 Xavier Numia 18 Kaliopasi Uluilakepa 19 Galu Taufale 20 Greg Foe 21 Carlos Price 22 TJ Va'a 23 Billy Proctor

Fidow is injured, Waldrom is not in the selection, but still like a Canes mixed team.
I will be honest, I dont know too much about Southland, but they are very poor... nonames for me. BUT thats all sounds beauty... but weather forecast says trouble.
Line is big! -41 LOL...

Gone over 53.5 points in this Mitre Cup match......boy this competition is so frustrating. The matches are open..the rugby is very good...but points/tries just seem to constantly go astray....grrrrrrrr

Thanks Southpaw, that HT / FT delivered without any stress

southpaw wrote: HT/FT Auckland/Auckland just under 8/10 with Sunbet
Auckland -7.5 @ 17/20 with Hollywood

Nice plays South!

Not sure why guys keep punting the overs in the Mitre10 Cup. I have checked and of the 16 games, only 3 have gone overs on the pre-game total points quote.

Thanks...kick a man when he is down....

Thrasher6 wrote: Thanks...kick a man when he is down....

My post wasn't directed at you specifically Thrasher6.

I think punters expect lots of tries because it's NZ teams playing against each other. NZ teams focus heavily on defence and play from turnover ball. That's why when they play each other points don't come that easily.