Rugby: Currie Cup week 6, Pro14 Round 4, Mitre10 + other

Nice Brent! I like the handicap prediction video.

Your handicaps look well set, but agree with you that you might have been a bit conservative on the Province game. I would take any WP minus under 30 points.

GG out. Have taken some WP -24.5 at 9/10. Smaller bet WP -24.5 into Pumas -7.5

I'm still learning about the Pro14 teams, but can't see how Dragons can be 6.5 points favourites against Zebre, even for an away game for Zebre. I would make it a choice game at best. Have taken Zebre +6.5 at 19/20 and Zebre to win the game at 5/2. Also small bet on Zebre to win by 14+ at 25/1

hanrick wrote: I'm still learning about the Pro14 teams, but can't see how Dragons can be 6.5 points favourites against Zebre, even for an away game for Zebre. I would make it a choice game at best. Have taken Zebre +6.5 at 19/20 and Zebre to win the game at 5/2. Also small bet on Zebre to win by 14+ at 25/1

Agreed, I'll continue to oppose the Dragons while Bernard Jackman is at the helm.

However they did actually show a bit more promise in the weekend vs Leinster (if that's possible while getting thrashed by 42 points).

Although their best back Hallam Amos dislocated his elbow and is out for a month.
Plus Zebre will have their tails up following their win over the Blues, who've now lost 3 games on the trot that they should've won comfortably.

Anything more than a narrow Dragons win would be a big surprise to me.

Following with Zebre +7 @ 1.91

Solid reasoning from both of you on the Dragons..esp the Jackman bit...Zebre must fancy their chances, and +7 is very very tempting

With Tasman haing a double header this round I expected them to make changes to their team for tomorrow. Although there are a few changes, they have named a pretty strong side. Manawatu on the other hand (who also have a 2 games this round) have rested 4 players and the significant player of those 4 is their star player, Rob Thompson.

I am more than happy to take the Mako -12.5 at 9/10

#finsup

hanrick wrote: With Tasman haing a double header this round I expected them to make changes to their team for tomorrow. Although there are a few changes, they have named a pretty strong side. Manawatu on the other hand (who also have a 2 games this round) have rested 4 players and the significant player of those 4 is their star player, Rob Thompson.

I am more than happy to take the Mako -12.5 at 9/10

#finsup

Will also follow on this , Rob Thompson by far their best player.Regular captain Nick Crosswell also rested.

I love these Wednesday games, earlier start to the weekend and some thinking around team selections. I got on Tasman yesterday at -13.5 and still happy about it seeing team news.

Currie Cup caps out with WSB and the big move in the WP game (from GG's -24.5).
WP -30.5
Cheetahs +8.5
Sharks -6.5

I do like the WP cap still with talk of some Boks being back, but -30.5 is a lot so I'm going to wait for WP points rather.

hanrick wrote: I'm still learning about the Pro14 teams, but can't see how Dragons can be 6.5 points favourites against Zebre, even for an away game for Zebre. I would make it a choice game at best. Have taken Zebre +6.5 at 19/20 and Zebre to win the game at 5/2. Also small bet on Zebre to win by 14+ at 25/1

which bookmaker has these alternate hcaps out so early? (Zebre 14+)
I see you sometimes mention supabets - do they still ask for fica docs and stamped bank statement with every withdrawal?

WP could be strong this weekend

m.sport24.co.za/Rugby/RugbyChampionship/...m-bok-squad-20180918

kompos wrote:

hanrick wrote: I'm still learning about the Pro14 teams, but can't see how Dragons can be 6.5 points favourites against Zebre, even for an away game for Zebre. I would make it a choice game at best. Have taken Zebre +6.5 at 19/20 and Zebre to win the game at 5/2. Also small bet on Zebre to win by 14+ at 25/1

which bookmaker has these alternate hcaps out so early? (Zebre 14+)
I see you sometimes mention supabets - do they still ask for fica docs and stamped bank statement with every withdrawal?

Hi Kompos. Supabets do still ask for all that documentation with every withdrawal so much so that I won't be making any deposits there anymore. Feels like you almost have to give your whole family history before getting a withdrawal from them. Two weeks ago I furnished them with the necessary documentation and they paid me (after a 4 week struggle). Last week I used the exact same documentation of the week before and they didn't want to pay me as they didn't accecpt the stamped bank statement I provided. It's a real hassle getting money from them. Strange that they make it so tough when it's so easy with other bookmakers.

Getting back to your question on the 14+ margin. Yesterday when I posted this it was available at Supabets, Gbets and World of Sport.

Pumas to win @ 1.90 - Betxchange &
Cheetahs +8.5 @ 1.9 - WSB

Not always a lot of middles in Currie Cup, thinking this game could be the exception

Tasman R30 @ 1.62 si far for me
Will wait tomorrow morning of the odds are moving on some other bets I have in mind

hanrick wrote: With Tasman haing a double header this round I expected them to make changes to their team for tomorrow. Although there are a few changes, they have named a pretty strong side. Manawatu on the other hand (who also have a 2 games this round) have rested 4 players and the significant player of those 4 is their star player, Rob Thompson.

I am more than happy to take the Mako -12.5 at 9/10

#finsup

Have added Turbos under 21.5 points at 5/6.

#finsup

Very strange Currie Cup fixture list this year....the Cheetahs are already playing their last game of the season, probably better for them, but if they were in the running for the semi-final they would be on a 3 week break after Friday.

Northland vs Southland

Northland -22.5 @1.85
Northland over 41.5 @1.85

No Mike Delaney for the Steamers tomorrow so I'm taking the Mooloos to win at 12/10. Also Waikato/Waikato ht/ft at 1.95/1

Does anyone have a site that stream rugby on thats not on SuperSport?

Two Left Feet wrote: Does anyone have a site that stream rugby on thats not on SuperSport?

cricfree.sc/

Bristol have been ahead at half time in their last three games:
Gloucester (Away), Saracens (Away) and Bath (Home).
They at home against Harlequins on Saturday.

Bristol H/T @ 2.2

Two Left Feet wrote: Does anyone have a site that stream rugby on thats not on SuperSport?

www.vipleague.lc

Vannes v Brive

Forecast is good, two attacking teams, expect some tries but will go with HT first and if low scoring HT, will hit over points and tries

Over 1.5 tries HT @ 1.53

Don't follow the Pro 14 too closely but Ulster v Cheetahs, Ulster at between -7.5 and -9.5....does that seem right to you guys? How does Ulster not smash that easily? Number 1 in one conference versus dead last in the other.

Download Mobdro. Search for it on Google and download the .apk file... you will need to change your settings on your phone once you open the file so the phone accepts the file. All the sky sports, French, other European sports channels etc. That's what I use to watch all the French, mitre, English games etc That's not on supersport.

Another hint : if you go to flashscore24.co.za and click on a game it will sometimes tell you what channel it is being shown on. Example if you go to tonight Pro2 game it will tell you it's on C+ Sports and you can find that on Mobdro. Well that channel was there before - can't find it now though

Another one I like is the ultimate rugby website that gives you live commentary on all games... if I am not in a position to watch.

Thanks

Main bet of the week end (so far)

Newcastle to score a penalty before 32”30 @1.83

Think it was Hein who mentioned a play on the Kings half time cap and I'm in agreement. Any double digit cap will be decent value.

Henry Speight looked dangerous on Sunday and he'll have more ball at 13 tonight. Will have a stab at him to score anytime at 14/10.

Edit: See he's out to 15/10.

hanrick wrote: No Mike Delaney for the Steamers tomorrow so I'm taking the Mooloos to win at 12/10. Also Waikato/Waikato ht/ft at 1.95/1

Now that's tipping! Took the HT/FT but got it at 16/10.

Shot Hanrick!

Small weekend accumulator:

Zebre +5.5
Treviso +11.5
Bristol +3.5
Clermont +1.5

@ 10.74

And the 'why not' accumulator:
The above 4 to win outright @ 54.67

Small-ish bet for me:

Cheetahs v Pumas Total Points: Over 64.5
Pumas -5.5

Monster Acca for the weekend:
- WP -13.5 1st half
- Zebre +5.5
- Bristol win
- Pumas -6.5
- Auckland -3.5

Monster Acca for the weekend:
- WP -13.5 1st half
- Zebre +5.5
- Bristol win
- Pumas -6.5
- Auckland -3.5

Brent Graham wrote: Terrible 2nd half, big bet on points done in but forgot I took Pu,as 8/10 early in week so a small loss in the end

So disappointing. After 35 points in the first half I figured this was a lock. Also had them on the plus though, so a small loss for me too.

Cheetahs (the Pro14 version) - under 24.5 points

Exeter -3.5 2nd half cap (good bench),
Munster -2.5 FT cap (strong pack tonight)

Double @ 9/4 with Sunbet

southpaw wrote: Exeter -3.5 2nd half cap (good bench),
Munster -2.5 FT cap (strong pack tonight)

Double @ 9/4 with Sunbet

That 2nd half Exeter cap looks an exceptional bet.

I'm at the Cardiff Blues v Munster match - strong winds earlier but they've all but dropped off, great conditions on 4G pitch.

So going with:

Over 43.5 total points @ 1.83

Blues to score a try before 28m 30 seconds @ 1.83

Also small interest play on Cardiff by 1-12 @ 3.50

Auckland handi seems low, -2.5 on GG. Am I missing something? Team news?

NastyNate wrote: Auckland handi seems low, -2.5 on GG. Am I missing something? Team news?

Line has moved in from -5 or -6 earlier in the week.
A number of changes in the Auckland team - further at least 2 bracketed (including Akira Ioane) pending late fitness tests. Can't find any info on these yet.
Irrespective will have a play at the -2, Auckland just seem a much better coached side to me this year.

Auckland have big wind advantage 2nd half, taken some -9 at HT

Tense last ten coming with the yellow

Ft 30-31
Not sure Auckland deserved to win that, imploded in the last 10 with a supreme effort to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.....

Back square for the weekend.

Have a modest play on Kings plus, bigger bet on Zebre plus posted earlier this week.