Rugby thread 2/c 22nd October inc Currie Cup Final, Bledisloe Cup and more

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5 years 5 months ago #1 by mackem
Thread for all this weeks rugby, Currie Cup, Bledisloe, Mitre 10, Pro 14 and European.

Brent tells me he would have capped the Currie Cup final at WP -7.5

All of this weeks rugby tips, opinion, info much appreciated here lads

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5 years 5 months ago #2 by Kirky
Sharks are 2.75 to win at Sunbet: could be a good bet after the battering Province took from the Bulls.
Or, they can find 23 new players maybe ?
Anyway, I'm in for a few units.

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5 years 5 months ago #3 by Brad Breath
Betfair opened Kings +19 vs Scarlets (who will be without all their internationals)

Struggling to even pick my nose in the last couple of weeks, but by my reckoning that quote is far too high, so jumped on

Its now into +12

Thoughts lads?
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5 years 5 months ago - 5 years 5 months ago #4 by shaft
The Kings are without their skipper Michael Willemse for the rest of the season. He's been one of their stand out players for me they'll miss him. Despite that you really should be okay at +19.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
Last edit: 5 years 5 months ago by shaft.
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5 years 5 months ago #5 by Stoossy
where did you guys get the 19+ bet.co.za has the @10.5 even with out the internationals surly they should beat that

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5 years 5 months ago #6 by southpaw
Glasgow on best plus at Munster jumps out this weekend. Seen +7 in UK. They were so impressive on weekend.

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5 years 5 months ago - 5 years 5 months ago #7 by gareth_
I like La Rochelle to beat Toulon at 2.86. The All Blacks -16 AH Vs. Australia at 1.91. Waikato - 6 ah Vs. Otago at 1.90 and I also like Nevers -5 AH at 1.90 Vs. Oyonnax on Friday night in the Pro D2. Zack Henry and Zack Guildford are playing some nice stuff with Nevers. I fancy Nevers to get promoted to the Top 14 this season.
Last edit: 5 years 5 months ago by gareth_.
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5 years 5 months ago #8 by Cettas
Currie Cup Promotion/Relegation game scheduled for Next Tuesday:

www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/CurrieCup/cheeta...ation-match-20181023

The game needs to be played before month end as:
South Western Districts, like many of the other smaller unions in South Africa, earlier this year opted to contract their players only until October 30. This came after SA Rugby’s decision to cut the budgets of smaller unions by 52%. They cannot play the game after October 31 because their players will no longer have contracts and medical cover.
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5 years 5 months ago #9 by mackem
Many thanks to Oracle for his Currie Cup final preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Oracle/oracle-rugby...8-final-preview.html

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5 years 5 months ago #10 by ThoughtsOnSports
Japan +24.5 vs World XV.

Japan are coached by Jamie Joseph (the Highlanders coach when they won super rugby) and boast a strong starting line up. The World XV have some blockbuster names but with minimal preparation time, this handicap is overstated. I wouldn't be surprised about a Japan outright victory.

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5 years 5 months ago #11 by mackem
Oracle's Bledisloe Cup preview is available here

goodforthegame.co.za/Oracle/oracle-rugby...loe-cup-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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5 years 5 months ago #12 by southpaw

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Japan +24.5 vs World XV.

Japan are coached by Jamie Joseph (the Highlanders coach when they won super rugby) and boast a strong starting line up. The World XV have some blockbuster names but with minimal preparation time, this handicap is overstated. I wouldn't be surprised about a Japan outright victory.


was thinking similar when seen the teams. The Japan side is a strong one, they have a big game coming up against NZ and will want to impress. The +24 is miles off, totally agree that the win might also be on the cards. 10/1 !!!

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5 years 5 months ago #13 by Murfin
Keen to follow on the Japan +24 and the 10/1 on outright win. Which bookies of offering it?

Jesus Saves

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5 years 5 months ago #14 by Kirky

Brad Breath wrote: Betfair opened Kings +19 vs Scarlets (who will be without all their internationals)

Struggling to even pick my nose in the last couple of weeks, but by my reckoning that quote is far too high, so jumped on

Its now into +12

Thoughts lads?


Just seen the Ireland squad for their internationals: 17 players from Leinster; 10 from Munster; and 9 from Ulster; etc.
I reckon this is not a good time to be taking any bets on Pro14 outcomes. Anyone got advice on this ?
I'm so tired of throwing money at the bookies, but think it's not just me getting stuff wrong for the past few weeks...

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5 years 5 months ago #15 by Brent Graham
I got +24.5 at WSB and 14/1 Japan outright last night

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5 years 5 months ago #16 by mackem
All Blacks v Wallabies Bledisloe Cup Saturday preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Int-Rugby/new-zeala...betting-preview.html

Tentative call, 3 units (1 to 10 scale) Australia +16.5 points 9/10 WSB, BetXchange

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5 years 5 months ago #17 by Chickendinner
Same double as last week for me.
Waikato and Auckland on the board.
Just under 15/10

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5 years 5 months ago #18 by southpaw

Murfin wrote: Keen to follow on the Japan +24 and the 10/1 on outright win. Which bookies of offering it?


I got on with Paddy in UK, +24 @ 10/11 to be exact and 10/1 win. Did see some +24.5 with WSB in SA but i can't get on there.

Worth keeping an eye out for other SA firms pricing up today although line has moved overnight and around 21.5 now and 8/1 outright. Still a punt in my view at that line.
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5 years 5 months ago #19 by RuggaBugga
Agree boys! The last thing World Rugby needs is for the hosts to get thrashed in an exhibition match, the +21.5 still GOLDEN!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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5 years 5 months ago #20 by RuggaBugga
Thanks ToS

You have to love WSB or anyone who priced this game up ...
Bet365 have Japan v New Zealand on 3 November at Japan +21

So any trader doing a quick check would have gone overseas and made the mistake of thinking this was the Japan v World XV game ...

Those who got the +24.5 got massive value as that is just 3 points better than the same team against the All Blacks!

I somehow don't think the below team is 3 points "better" than the AB's

World XV

15 Nehe Milner Skudder (Hurricanes), 14 Toni Pulu (Chiefs), 13 Harold Vorster (Lions/Panasonic), 12 Ma’a Nonu (Blues, New Zealand), 11 Tevita Li (Highlanders), 10 Lionel Cronje (Toyota), 9 Andrew Ellis (Kobe, captain), 8 Leonardo Senatore (Jaguares), 7 Dillon Hunt (Highlanders), 6 Jackson Hemopo (Highlanders), 5 Jason Jenkins (Bulls/Toyota), 4 Sam Carter (Brumbies), 3 Hencus van Wyk (Sunwolves/Sanix), 2 Adriaan Strauss (Bulls), 1 Craig Millar (Sunwolves/Panasonic)

Substitutes: Ricky Riccitelli (Hurricanes), Wyatt Crockett (Crusaders), Ben Alexander (Brumbies), Ben Gunter (Panasonic), Willie Britz (Sunwolves/NTT), Augustine Pulu (Hino/Blues), Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias (Jaguares), Keisuke Moriya (Panasonic), Nili Latu (Hino), Corne Fourie (Lions/Panasonic)

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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5 years 5 months ago #21 by Thrasher6
Japan are now +16....5/1 outright win

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5 years 5 months ago #22 by mackem
Currie Cup Final preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Currie-Cup-2018/wes...betting-preview.html

5 units (1 to 10 scale) Either side to win by 1-7 points including the draw, 1.55/1 Sunbet

twitter: @goodforthegame

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5 years 5 months ago #23 by bradie82
Japan +6.5 on UK market now … shame the European bookies are too slow for those kind of spots
Anyway there is new competition in England starting this Friday and waiting for the first lines to be out – there will be a prize money in every match for the winning team and hopefully the competition will be as open as the previous LV Cup.
I ll post later one if I spot anything value

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5 years 5 months ago - 5 years 5 months ago #24 by Thrasher6
The Scarlets are down to the bare bones with 19 players missing against the Southern Kings. The handicap is +10 to the Kings. Anyone feel this is worth a shout....I'm just not sure about the Kings at times... (sorry I have just noticed that many were on +19 earlier in the week..)

This is a good summing up of The Scarlets season btw...
www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-...ets-reasons-15318831
Last edit: 5 years 5 months ago by Thrasher6.

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5 years 5 months ago #25 by southpaw
Massive misread from Paddy Power/Betfair in UK on Japan game, and WSB obviously followed that line. +24 has been punted off boards i suspect, now between +6 and +12. Love it when the punters get it right and bookies wrong.

RB - All Blacks team vs Japan will be a B/C side. Bulk of the match-day 23 from this weekend will travel to UK on the Sunday morning to prep for England game.

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5 years 5 months ago #26 by RuggaBugga
Thanks South.

An AB B/C side still better than that World XV team. Taken some more of the Sunbet +11.5 as think the +7 is fair so still value.

Now quite Big on Japan!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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5 years 5 months ago - 5 years 5 months ago #27 by Cettas

mackem wrote: Currie Cup Final preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Currie-Cup-2018/wes...betting-preview.html

5 units (1 to 10 scale) Either side to win by 1-7 points including the draw, 1.55/1 Sunbet


Quite like this either team bet especially in a final

Western Province team below. See Willemse moved to centre

15 Dillyn Leyds, 14 Sergeal Petersen, 13 Ruhan Nel, 12 Damian Willemse, 11 SP Marais, 10 Josh Stander, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 7 Ernst van Rhyn, 6 Kobus van Dyk, 5 JD Schickerling, 4 Chris van Zyl (captain), 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Bongi Mbonambi, 1 Ali Vermaak

Substitutes: 16 Scarra Ntubeni, 17 Caylib Oosthuizen, 18 Michael Kumbirai, 19 Salmaan Moerat, 20 Jaco Coetzee, 21 Herschel Jantjies, 22 Dan Kriel, 23 JJ Engelbrecht
Last edit: 5 years 5 months ago by Cettas.

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5 years 5 months ago #28 by Cettas

Thrasher6 wrote: The Scarlets are down to the bare bones with 19 players missing against the Southern Kings. The handicap is +10 to the Kings. Anyone feel this is worth a shout....I'm just not sure about the Kings at times... (sorry I have just noticed that many were on +19 earlier in the week..)

This is a good summing up of The Scarlets season btw...
www.walesonline.co.uk/sport/rugby/rugby-...ets-reasons-15318831


Teams if interested:

Southern Kings

15 Masixole Banda, 14 Yaw Penxe, 13 Harlon Klassen, 12 Berton Klassen, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Martin du Toit, 9 Godlen Masimla, 8 Andisa Ntsila, 7 Ruaan Lerm, 6 Stephan de Wit, 5 JC Astle (captain), 4 Schalk Oelofse, 3 Luvuyo Pupuma, 2 Alandre van Rooyen 1 Schalk Ferreira

Substitutes: 16 Tango Balekile, 17 Justin Forwood, 18 Luphumlo Mguca, 19 Stephan Greeff, 20 Tienie Burger, 21 Rudi van Rooyen, 22 Tertius Kruger, 23 Meli Rokoua

Scarlets

15 Clayton Blommetjies, 14 Johnny McNicholl, 13 Paul Asquith, 12 Steff Hughes (captain), 11 Ioan Nicholas, 10 Dan Jones, 9 Sam Hidalgo-Clyne, 8 Uzair Cassiem, 7 Josh Macleod, , 6 Will Boyde, 5 David Bulbring, 4 Steve Cummins, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Marc Jones, 1 Phil Price

Substitutes: 16 Dafydd Hughes, 17 Dylan Evans, 18 Simon Gardiner, 19 Tom Price, 20 Josh Helps, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Morgan Williams, 23 Ed Kennedy
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5 years 5 months ago #29 by Thrasher6
Not sure if the SA books have reacted yet but Connacht have been smashed down from +7 to +1 (2/1 down to Evens) to beat the Ospreys in the last hour...
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5 years 5 months ago #30 by Ruan Fourie
I missed the Japan bet unfortunately. It has just been a hectic week.

And being a bit off form I jumped into WP -6.5 earlier in the week. Thinking it should be bigger than that. Only to find that now you can get WP -5.5.

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5 years 5 months ago #31 by Murfin
I have been on the WP bus but after last week performance, and knowing that both teams have upset each other in the finals traveling in last couple years, I am holding back.

I want to first check that WP doesnt do this penalty kicking sh*t and carries on playing how they have all season before backing them. If WP starts going for penalties early and the sharks line moves up a bit going to take full cover on them (as have a season bet on WP to win the currie cup).

Jesus Saves

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5 years 5 months ago #32 by bradie82
Brive v Montauban
Over 42.5 @ 1.83
I found the cut low so giving it a try - Brive has his best players back vs game lost last time + Montauban can score with Bosviel + excellent forecast

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5 years 5 months ago #33 by southpaw
Looks like Glasgow will be without several Scotland internationals so will hold fire on them until sides named.

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5 years 5 months ago #34 by Brent Graham
The Handicap is live in just under 10 minutes


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5 years 5 months ago #35 by SirCharlesZA
That Scarlets team is still plenty better than the Kings.

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5 years 5 months ago #36 by SirCharlesZA
My predictions for the week in Europe. Had Clermont on-13.5 earlier in the week, but seems like the lined moved more than 5 points.

La Rochelle +4.5
Grenoble +6.5
Racing -15.5
Newport+17.5
Ospreys +0.5
Cardiff +1.5

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5 years 5 months ago #37 by Scoembo
@SirCharlesZA I have to disagree on the Cardiff punt of +1.5. The Cheetahs pushed them close at home with the Cardiff team at full strength. The Freestaters have been licking their lips for the last 3 weeks for this game and the Blues have been training in Bellville Hell all week. Not to mention the altitude factor. Plus Gareth Anscombe (kicker and play maker) is on national duty.

If the ball sticks to the Cheetahs fingers and they keep handling errors to a minimum they should win this game comfortably.
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5 years 5 months ago #38 by RuggaBugga
Cheetahs have a promo/relegation battle on Tuesday for the Currie Cup.

Have they announced their team for the Pro14 yet? If it were me I would go stronger on Tuesday ...

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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5 years 5 months ago - 5 years 5 months ago #39 by Cettas

RuggaBugga wrote: Cheetahs have a promo/relegation battle on Tuesday for the Currie Cup.

Have they announced their team for the Pro14 yet? If it were me I would go stronger on Tuesday ...


Cheetahs team v Cardiff:

www.fscheetahs.co.za/match-day

Seems full strength

TEAM ANNOUNCEMENT
POS NAME
1 OX NCHE
2 JACQUES DU TOIT
3 ARANOS COETZEE
4 JUSTIN BASSON
5 JP DU PREEZ
6 NIELL JORDAAN
7 JUNIOR POKOMELA
8 STEPHAN MALAN
9 TIAN MEYER
10 TIAN SCHOEMAN
11 RABZ MAXWANE
12 NICO LEE
13 BENHARD JANSE VAN RENSBURG
14 WILLIAM SMALL-SMITH
15 LOUIS FOUCHE
RESERVES
16 JOSEPH DWEBA
17 CHARLES MARAIS
18 GUNTHER JANSE VAN VUUREN
19 WALT STEENKAMP
20 DANIEL MAARTENS
21 ABONGILE NONKONTWANE
22 SHAUN VENTER
23 ALI MGIJIMA
Last edit: 5 years 5 months ago by Cettas.
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5 years 5 months ago #40 by Roger Rabbit
I had the pleasure of hosting the Cardiff blues for dinner this week , the directors have travelled with them to South Africa , I’m expecting a very big performance from them tomorrow
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5 years 5 months ago - 5 years 5 months ago #41 by shaft
I don't think it would've taken much to convince the directors to come on an African safari. Cheetahs should beat Cardiff easily with that team.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
Last edit: 5 years 5 months ago by shaft.

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5 years 5 months ago - 5 years 5 months ago #42 by Cettas
Munster v Glasgow:

Munster:
Nine of the 11 Munster players called up to the Ireland squad earlier this week are included in the Munster matchday 23.

Glasgow:
In the starting XV, five of the sixteen players named in Scotland’s 2018 Autumn International squad return,

Link below lists all Pro14 teams for Saturday:
www.planetrugby.com/news/pro14-preview-saturday-20/
Last edit: 5 years 5 months ago by Cettas.

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5 years 5 months ago #43 by Brad Breath
Cardiff Blues: Matthew Morgan; Jason Harries, Garyn Smith, Rey Lee-Lo, Aled Summerhill; Steve Shingler, Lloyd Williams (capt); Brad Thyer, Ethan Lewis, Scott Andrews, George Earle, Rory Thornton, Josh Turnbull, Olly Robinson, Seb Davies

Replacements: Liam Belcher, Rhys Gill, Keiron Assiratti, Samu Manoa, Nick Williams, Lewis Jones, Dan Fish, Willis Halaholo

Largely as expected with their internationals missing.
Seb Davies makes his return from injury at No 8. Not sure why both Blues and Wales persist with him in the back row, much better 2nd rower for me.
Some power and quality on the bench with Manoa, Williams and Halaholo.

Have had a modest bet Cheetahs -2, not large as wary of the Blues - they've performed well this year when starting as dogs.


Took some Munster -7 v Glasgow yesterday (most of Irish internationals starting for them) and after seeing Leinster line up (similarly strong) have jumped on -8 vs Treviso with Sporting Bet.
Cap blown out to -15 other books.

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5 years 5 months ago #44 by RuggaBugga
Japan 28 World XV 31

Worldies led 24-7 at HT and scored right after the break. Then the comeback started as the fix was in ;)

Cannot have the Japs embarrassed in a test match leading up to the RWC. GOLDEN!!!!!!!!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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5 years 5 months ago #45 by southpaw

RuggaBugga wrote: Japan 28 World XV 31

Worldies led 24-7 at HT and scored right after the break. Then the comeback started as the fix was in ;)

Cannot have the Japs embarrassed in a test match leading up to the RWC. GOLDEN!!!!!!!!


Was following on Twitter and at 31-7 I was about to get prepared for eating humble pie after saying bookies got this miles wrong. Thank god the Japs roared back and great start to weekend.

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5 years 5 months ago #46 by Zambusta
The Kings are 4 - 1 in their last 5 games to score the first try of the game when playing at home.

First try Kings @ 2.16
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5 years 5 months ago #47 by coil
Well played on the Japanese bus , didn't manage to get on the big caps early and decided to leave it . Form is horrible at the moment , but really like the Cheetahs tonight , not so sure of the KIngs so will leave that one alone although considering an unders in that game at around 59.5. Also leaning towards Connacht but the value is gone so will have a smaller bet .

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5 years 5 months ago #48 by henryscat
Great try from Banda! Lightening feet!!
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5 years 5 months ago #49 by hanrick
Kings over 27.5 points at 8/10 at halftime

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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5 years 5 months ago #50 by southpaw
Nicely done hanrick.

Gone NZ -14.5 main bet.

Then McKenzie 1st try 16/1
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