International Rugby w/o 19 November incl WAL v RSA + other

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5 years 4 months ago #1 by Brent Graham
Very bitter about that Scotland game but on we march

Had a chat to Coil about this weekends handicaps and here are our projected handicaps (his in brackets)

Italy v New Zealand +28.5 (+40.5)
Scotland v Argentina -7.5 (-7.5)
England v Australia -6.5 (-10.5)
Wales v SA +1.5 (-3.5)
Ireland v USA -24.5 (-33.5)
France v Fiji -18.5 (-22.5)

Some interesting differences in opinion

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5 years 4 months ago #2 by Brent Graham
Something a little different this week as Coil joins me to talk through our handicap projections and we also look at the latest RWC betting


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5 years 4 months ago #3 by sitho1983
Italy v New Zealand (NZ -35.5)
Scotland v Argentina (Arg +12.5)
England v Australia (Eng -16.5)
Wales v SA (Wal -3.5)
Ireland v USA (Ire -22.5)
France v Fiji (Fij +12.5)

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5 years 4 months ago #4 by southpaw
Up and down weekend for me, only got involved in 2 games, made good money SA cap and pts but then threw it all back on NZ cap and a few doubles that were pinned on good NZ win. Ireland were outstanding.

A dissapointed NZ camp spells bad news for Italy. Fancy a big win, seen some UK caps around 32 mark, feels about right but would be taking NZ to cover if conditions good.

Scots v Pumas could be a cracker as think Scot attacking plan will also suit Argies. Points in that game will have my interest, not sure on cap.

Eng v Aus, early view also agree with Brent that Aussies could be vulnerable but all depends on what England side turn up. One thing is Aussies will have this as their key game they were targeting this tour. So a bit unsure for me on this one.

Wales v SA i see Boks opened up marginal favourites, toughest game to call. Will be at match and hopefully not a kickfest but unfortunately fear there's a risk it could be.

Other 2 games would be waiting on team selection news.

This weekend often the last chance of year for a serious rugby punt so will be looking to get more involved that last week.
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5 years 4 months ago #5 by Brad Breath
I too will be at Wales v Boks.

Books opened Wales +2 which I've climbed into, can see money coming for them and I think they'll start favourites.

Fancy them strongly, particularly so given most of their first choice players were rested vs Tonga.
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5 years 4 months ago - 5 years 4 months ago #6 by bradie82
Like Brad Breath, I m seating on the Welsh camp and went with the H+1.5 @ 1.91
I was not impressed by the attacking game of the Boks last week end. They did defend well, especially in the ruck zone, but Scotland fed them with easy points and mistakes (a bit like France the previous week end). Pollard has been in a good kicking form but with him, there is always a chance of a poor game. Finally, Wales rested key players while I can see Boks being out of energy after a very long season.
Last edit: 5 years 4 months ago by bradie82.
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5 years 4 months ago - 5 years 4 months ago #7 by mackem
Agree Wales with Brad and Bradie's point about having rested key men last week very much in the thinking although not as confident as I was that Scotland would turn the Boks over last week..

Wales v Boks preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Int-Rugby/wales-v-s...betting-preview.html


4 of 10 units home win at 11/10 WSB (Choice game on many books)

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Last edit: 5 years 4 months ago by mackem.

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5 years 4 months ago #8 by mackem
England v Wallabies preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Int-Rugby/england-v...betting-preview.html

4 units (1-10 scale) England -7.5 points 0.93 Sunbet

Not completely central to my thinking but suspect Pocock may not start or if he does may not see it through. Either way England's overall display against the AB's was enough to sway me to minus cap.

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5 years 4 months ago #9 by RuggaBugga
All over England this weekend, lots of players rested against the Japs and the Aussies are rubbish. They also playing last game of tour and have struggled in this spot in prior years.
2017 - Last game vs Scotland. Lost 53-24
2016 - Last game vs England. Lost 37-21
2014 - Last game vs England. Lost 26-17
2013 - Last game vs Wales. Won 30-26 (But they always used to beat Wales ;)

Rubber stamping Mackems -7.5. Come on you Poms!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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5 years 4 months ago #10 by Vrystaat
Bradie I’ve been following your posts for a while and I think you know your rugby, but I have to disagree with you in this one. For the last few months I’ve been going on oddschecker if William hill offer the best price on a team I’ll back the other team, amd90% of the time they get it right. I see they offer best price on South Africa 23/10i think this is the time they got it wrong. I just believe the boks will beat wales unless Etzebeth and Franco mostert isn’t available. Best of luck to all punters. You never know with the refs we have now we days.
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5 years 4 months ago - 5 years 4 months ago #11 by MrMeeseeks86
This might be a dumb question but how different is the Wales team expected to be than that from the one who played Australia? Because if it's very similar, the Boks plus looks mighty attractive.

That said, definitely taking Eng -7.5 against Australia. At this point I rate the Japanese higher and having beat them by 20 past weekend, I can see England winning by at least 10 or more. Australia in absolute shambles, and stringing points against Italy, having struggled for most of the first half, did not impress me or change my view on them at all.
Last edit: 5 years 4 months ago by MrMeeseeks86.

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5 years 4 months ago #12 by Brent Graham
No doubting Oracles Best Bet this weekend - England minus for sure - I will be on board as well

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5 years 4 months ago #13 by bradie82

Vrystaat wrote: Bradie I’ve been following your posts for a while and I think you know your rugby, but I have to disagree with you in this one. For the last few months I’ve been going on oddschecker if William hill offer the best price on a team I’ll back the other team, amd90% of the time they get it right. I see they offer best price on South Africa 23/10i think this is the time they got it wrong. I just believe the boks will beat wales unless Etzebeth and Franco mostert isn’t available. Best of luck to all punters. You never know with the refs we have now we days.


Hi Vrystaat – first of all thanks for the compliment. I also check oddschecker as I have access to several books and always try to find the best value for the games I target but never thought of checking which one was the most accurate in its prediction – quite interesting however that WH is 90% of the time correct and will keep an eye on it. I went with the Welsh H+ first of all as I could see the H dropping down during the week. Then I have simply not been impressed by SA : as I stated earlier, they got fed by French and Scottish mistakes, poor offensively but amazingly strong defensively. On top of that, it’s the end of the season, players have played since Fed/March without a proper break and Erasmus might do a turnover to give some time to players he brought to Europe (speculation obviously). Halfpenny will be out but not a big lost I reckon.
This is clearly not my main bet this week end. On a game like this one, I am waiting on the first penalty and the number of penalties scored as I think that would be the best move with those 2 teams. I have been quite successful the past 2 week ends with penalties so will stick with that kind of bet if a found a decent value.
Finally the top 14 is back and before making any move, I suggest to wait and see which ones could be release from the French squad (for example, Toulouse has 2 scrum halves blocked with the French squad and if none are released, this could have an impact.
I will share my bets in due time – have a good week all and happy to discuss further the Wales v SA game.

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5 years 4 months ago #14 by Scoembo
Hi guys,

I took an early multi on New Zealand -32, Scotland -7, England -8, Boks -1. Odds = 13.94 Decimal

All Blacks will be hurting and their second string side beat the Japs by 38. Just feel the ABs will be out for revenge to remind the world what they are capable of and they seem to always be able to put up big scores on teams like Italy. Also feel Japan is better than Italy at the moment.

Scotland have a very proud history at home and will definitely be out to restore that record. And with Huw Jones in scintillating form coupled with their strong forward pack I think they can get the best of the Argies.

Although Australia will be looking to end their tour on a high I just feel that England will have too much fire power and are currently in much better form than the Aussies. They might also have Nathan Hughes back at 8 which will provide their backs with go forward ball to strike from.

The Boks are just playing some of their best rugby at the moment. The ease with which Pollard scored that second try on Sat shows what they are capable off and with our pivot playing as well as he did look for a repeat of the same type of result. Wales are very good but without their goal kicker I feel the Boks should edge this one.

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5 years 4 months ago #15 by Cettas
9 changes for Scotland, also trying the two flyhalve (at 10 & 12) approach this week

Scotland

15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Blair Kinghorn, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Finn Russell, 11 Sean Maitland, 10 Adam Hastings, 9 Greig Laidlaw (captain), 8 Josh Strauss, 7 Hamish Watson, 6 Jamie Ritchie, 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Grant Gilchrost, 3 Simon Berghan, 2 Fraser Brown, 1 Allan Dell

Substitutes: 16 Stuart McInally, 17 Alex Allan, 18 WP Nel, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Ryan Wilson, 21 George Horne, 22 Alex Dunbar, 23 Byron McGuigan

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5 years 4 months ago #16 by mackem
Scotland v Argentina preview

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Int-Rugby/scotl...betting-preview.html

3 units, Scotland to win by under 12.5 points, 17/10 Sportingbet


Ireland v USA preview

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Int-Rugby/irela...betting-preview.html

2.5 units, Half time handicap USA +19.5 points 9/10 WSB

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5 years 4 months ago #17 by Cettas
Pro 14 offerings very slow this week - 3 games on tomorrow night and have not seen any prices yet

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5 years 4 months ago #18 by Cettas
Some early point lines available for the International games at betxchange.

Have taken Fiji over 14.5 pts & over 6.5pts 1st half points

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5 years 4 months ago #19 by bradie82
This is the French squad for Saturday.

France: 15. Fall, 14. Thomas, 13. Bastareaud, 12. Fickou, 11. Huget, 10. Lopez, 9. Serin, 8. Picamoles, 7. Iturria, 6. Lauret, 5. Maestri, 4. Vahaamahina, 3. Slimani, 2. Guirado, 1. Poirot.

Les remplaçants : 16. Marchand, 17. Priso, 18. Bamba, 19. Lambey, 20. Galletier, 21. Dupont, 22. Belleau, 23. Doumayrou.

Its almost the same squad as last week end – Slimani gets a start and Fall is replacing Medard who is out for 2/3 weeks. France should win this one comfortably especially if the forecast is wet as per today’s predictions.
On the top14 side, all players not included with the squad will not be available for this week end games which could have an impact e.g. Toulouse having 2 scrum halves with Les Bleus, 1 hooker with Italy and 1 with Les Bleus.
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5 years 4 months ago #20 by mackem
Agree Bradie, France to cover the cap which is generally -19.5 here

France v Fiji preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Int-Rugby/france-v-...betting-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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5 years 4 months ago #21 by mackem
Italy v New Zealand preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Int-Rugby/italy-v-n...betting-preview.html

New Zealand to win by 21-30 points inclusive at 7/2 WSB (for peanuts)

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5 years 4 months ago #22 by Brent Graham
The focus of tonights #GGGamingGoneMad show will be the Wales v Bok test - we are live at 2030


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5 years 4 months ago #23 by mackem
Many thanks to Oracle for his weekend international previews which are going up on the link below

goodforthegame.co.za/Oracle/oracle-rugby...tionals-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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5 years 4 months ago #24 by Brent Graham
The Handicap


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5 years 4 months ago #25 by coil
It's been a tough old battle these Nov Internationals for me this year , normally profitable but this year I'm about all square.

I certainly don't like the way so many of the top teams play at such similar times as that doesn't help with individual bets etc.

Biggest swing for me was punting Australia plus 2.5 against the Welsh and like Brent watched in dismay as Michael Hooper turned down a multitude of penalty kicks . Had that be arrived I would have been well up.

This weekend is very hard .

Like the panel all logic points towards the Welsh and why not .. they have been very good and are a team that generally gets better with game time under their belts.

However I'm beginning to like the Boks ... not sure if I'll back them just yet at the current odds but feel what they lack in quality they possess in some positive and never say die attitude.

They should never have won in both France and Scotland so thinking they might lift once again.

I really am in agreement with NZ , Italy are woeful ... the cap is large and if the AB's don't conceed silly points they should cover the cap.

At first glance I like the look of Fiji plus but that French team looks ok and there is at last some consistency ... I'll wait for conditions too.

Ireland gives away a large handicap and normally I would jump on the plus , what gives me second thoughts is the Irish pack is very good , backline not so and the way the yanks got murdered by the Maori at home. Having said that the plus still gets my vote.

Best bet of the weekend for me is Argentina plus . Granted Scotland have improved so much in recent years with their new attacking game plans but it also leaves them open . I agree Argentina could well enjoy playing them .. will be looking at Argentina win, plus , points .

England really should put Australia away . An awful side Australia and one of the worst even in recent years .

They prob will be up for it against England of course but if the hosts can gain ascendancy early on I feel Eng should cover the cap.
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5 years 4 months ago #26 by coil
It's been a tough old battle these Nov Internationals for me this year , normally profitable but this year I'm about all square.

I certainly don't like the way so many of the top teams play at such similar times as that doesn't help with individual bets etc.

Biggest swing for me was punting Australia plus 2.5 against the Welsh and like Brent watched in dismay as Michael Hooper turned down a multitude of penalty kicks . Had that be arrived I would have been well up.

This weekend is very hard .

Like the panel all logic points towards the Welsh and why not .. they have been very good and are a team that generally gets better with game time under their belts.

However I'm beginning to like the Boks ... not sure if I'll back them just yet at the current odds but feel what they lack in quality they possess in some positive and never say die attitude.

They should never have won in both France and Scotland so thinking they might lift once again.

I really am in agreement with NZ , Italy are woeful ... the cap is large and if the AB's don't conceed silly points they should cover the cap.

At first glance I like the look of Fiji plus but that French team looks ok and there is at last some consistency ... I'll wait for conditions too.

Ireland gives away a large handicap and normally I would jump on the plus , what gives me second thoughts is the Irish pack is very good , backline not so and the way the yanks got murdered by the Maori at home. Having said that the plus still gets my vote.

Best bet of the weekend for me is Argentina plus . Granted Scotland have improved so much in recent years with their new attacking game plans but it also leaves them open . I agree Argentina could well enjoy playing them .. will be looking at Argentina win, plus , points .

England really should put Australia away . An awful side Australia and one of the worst even in recent years .

They prob will be up for it against England of course but if the hosts can gain ascendancy early on I feel Eng should cover the cap.

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5 years 4 months ago #27 by bradie82
2 Aviva games tonight where the weather will be dry and cold with a slight humidity I reckon.
I am not extra confident but will still give a try as I reckon it could be two tight games and therefore every scoring could be determinant .
Main bets will be on Worcester dnb as the squad is almost the best one while Quins have few players out due to international duties + watched the Quins game last Friday and was not impressed at all, the over in the same game as I found it quite low (move from 44.5 to 41.5 so far) and few other strikes for fun.

Worcester vs Quins:
Worcester dnb @ 1.62
Over 41.5 @ 1.80
Over 3.5 penalties scored @ 1.66
More penalties than tries @ 3.60

Newcastle v Bath
Over 3.5 penalties scored @ 1.66
More penalties than tries @ 3.40
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5 years 4 months ago #28 by shaft
Further Pro14 caps out.

Cheetahs -11.5
Kings +6.5

Preference for the Cheetahs here.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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5 years 4 months ago #29 by JacoAucamp
Gents, any weather knowledge for tonight's Pro14 game in Ireland, surely Leinster and Ospreys should cover 39.5 points margin?

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5 years 4 months ago #30 by Quill
Beale and Ashley-Cooper out for disciplinary reasons and Pocock out injured, he didn't pass the fitness test.

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5 years 4 months ago #31 by bradie82
5 out 6 last night so will spread my bets today following the schedule of games

Toulon to score a penalty before 26”15 @ 1.83
Sale v Saints : Over 44.5 @ 1.83
USA + 38.5 @ 1.73

More to follow but if anybody has any info on the Cheetahs squad please as fancying the over 4.5 tries Cheetahs but the team has quite few players injured

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5 years 4 months ago - 5 years 4 months ago #32 by bradie82
Adding on the Perpignan v Castres game

Over 1.5 tries HT @1.66
Over 39.5 @1.57
Last edit: 5 years 4 months ago by bradie82.

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5 years 4 months ago #33 by JacoAucamp
Taking points in Bloemfontein, feel the heat will get to the Italians and the speedy service from Venter and Paige at scrum halves will work for Schoeman.

Main focus is the All Black's handicap against the Italians and having a small nibble at England - 4 halftime handicap.

Backing Bradie on the Sale game on points margin as well.

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5 years 4 months ago #34 by bradie82
3 bets with low stake on the UBB v RCT game but odds are crazy

More pena than tries UBB @ 4
More pena than tries RCT @ 3.60
More pena than tries Game @ 3.40

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5 years 4 months ago #35 by Brent Graham
Malcolm Jaer anytime 18/10 and FTS 16/1 WSB

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5 years 4 months ago #36 by JacoAucamp
Can't believe the cheetahs wouldn't take the penalty kick there.

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5 years 4 months ago #37 by The Vann
Wales v SA
Choice bet makes this a runner
Any draw ( HT/FT ) @ 9/1

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5 years 4 months ago #38 by sitho1983
My Predictions looking very good right now.

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5 years 4 months ago #39 by hanrick
Kings over 23.5 points

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5 years 4 months ago #40 by shaft
Kings +8.5

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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5 years 4 months ago #41 by hanrick
George Clancy having a shocker with the scrum calls

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5 years 4 months ago #42 by Brent Graham
Looking for a Sunday punt, any thoughts Leicester or Cleremont games guys

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5 years 4 months ago #43 by Brent Graham
Cleremot over 26.5 10/11 sunbet

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5 years 4 months ago #44 by Brent Graham
Doing my money in cold blood here - Claremont are half asleep

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