Super Rugby Week 3, Six Nations wk 4
- Brent Graham
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Well done to the boys on last weeks THE HANDICAP and to Oracles Granny whose pension fund is showing tremendous growth
My handicaps will be posted below
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- Brent Graham
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Hurricanes -10.5 v Brumbies -14.5
Rebels +9.5 v Highlanders +3.5
Chiefs -32.5 v Sunwolves -28.5
Reds +14.5 v Crusaders +16.5
Lions -5.5 v Bulls -7.5
Sharks -8.5 v Stormers -5.5
Jaguares -3.5 v Blues -6.5
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- mackem
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Canes -9.5
Rebels +6.5
Chiefs -24.5
Reds +16.5
Others to follow by the look of it.
Early thoughts most welcome
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- mackem
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Lions -6.5
Sharks -7.5
Jags even money match result
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- hanrick
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- mackem
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- Couch Critic
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mackem wrote: Many thanks to Couch Critic for this week's edition of Post Match Scuffle ... Around the World with Maradona ...
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Thanks Chris!
Please give it a read guys. And in case you start missing some of my tweets please follow me on @HDiemont since my Couch Critic handle seems to have gone walk-about for now...
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- threepeat
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Hurricanes -10.5 v Brumbies -14.5 -12.5
Rebels +9.5 v Highlanders +3.5 +4.5
Chiefs -32.5 v Sunwolves -28.5 -23.5
Reds +14.5 v Crusaders +16.5 +16.5
Lions -5.5 v Bulls -7.5 -7.5
Sharks -8.5 v Stormers -5.5 -5.5
Jaguares -3.5 v Blues -6.5 -1.5
Early small bet on Chiefs (1 out of 5) -23.5 based on above differential and Chiefs will not repeat Canberra. Looking for a bounce and a solid performance in front of home crowd.
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- southpaw
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Cannot see them not targeting a big win after the shambles on Saturday.
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- southpaw
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Risky going against Saders but a few NZ rest protocols coming into play, will also be without a few to injuries as well. Reds pack and scrum looked really good v Highlanders and first game at home for them, should be up for this.
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- mackem
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- takethegap
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- threepeat
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Razor Robertson has his team on fire, without Read, Whitelock or Taylor.
Ran up 24 unanswered points against Canes last week in the first half.
Razor will have some plan to bamboozle Kirevi at 12 (he is a Wallaby 13) and his gifted but inexperienced backline at this level. Razor and has the AB artillery - Crotty & Goodhue to do it, and do not under rate Matt Todd's ability to create havoc against the big man in the 12 zone. Has the advantage over Highlanders of analysing actual game tape.
Noted that full time line has moved down to -15.5 at this time.
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- southpaw
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Crusaders R1 R2 TOTAL
Ryan Crotty 63 80 143
Scott Barrett 80 50 130
Richie Mo'unga80 48 128
Matt Todd 80 58 138
Joe Moody 73 43 116
Can only go on what I've read, but definitely was something i considered enough to side with Reds, even if Saders decide to ignore this agreement.
Taken from NZ Herald - "The spotlight will this week go on the team selections of all five New Zealand franchises because, as per the welfare agreement struck between New Zealand Rugby and the All Blacks and franchise coaches, none of the nation's top players are supposed to play more than 180 minutes over the first three rounds."
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- Zambusta
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I was really impressed with their defence against an excellent attacking team like the Blues and the Stormers have started both their games terribly with very poor 1st halves.
They also may be without one of their previous players reffing the game
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/re...betting-preview.html
I like Rebels at +6.5 points with GGGaming for 3 of 5 units, made my case in the preview
Will come back to the other Friday game as really not sure where to go just yet
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- threepeat
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Playing minutes after two rounds - round one in brackets
Blues
Rieko Ioane 57 (80)
Patrick Tuipulotu 52 (80)
Chiefs
Brodie Retallick 80 (66)
Anton Lienert-Brown 60 (80)
Hurricanes
Jordie Barrett 80 (80)
Crusaders
Ryan Crotty 80 (63)
Scott Barrett 50 (80)
Richie Mo'unga 48 (80)
Matt Todd 58 (80)
Joe Moody 43 (73)
Highlanders
Luke Whitelock 80 (80)
Ben Smith 80 (80)
Thank you Southpaw for your posts on Crusaders game and AB protocols.
Where the protocols work, they are great. For example Retallick and Leinert-Brown will not start against Sunwolves. That does affects our bet on the Chiefs. Maybe the line will move down when they announce the Team?
The 180 minutes for frontline All Blacks was conceived as 3 x 60mins in first three games. Razor kept his men on the paddock in Auckland as they were in danger of losing the game! Trust me on this one, the public outcry for losing the bonus point in Christchurch was huge. Razor took off AB's at around 60 mins and Canes put on TJ and L-Brown! In Dunedin Major kept Whitelock & Smith in for 80 as they were in dander of losing to the Reds.
I also considered the protocols for the Crusaders and thus went for the first half -6.5 result.
You will not get Ben Smith off the paddock in Melbourne before 60 minutes on Friday night, and given that the Rebels are of fire I expect a very tough encounter and possibly another 80 mins from Smith.
Razor will follow Highlander example and keep his best out there until a bonus point is locked away. If you believe the Brumbies v Chiefs result he can rest everyone in Round 4 lol
Cheers and Good Luck to everyone.
PS: I encourage all the viewers on GFTG to post a comment, especially those that only know about their one Team. We are all trying to help each other on this site, and no one is always correct ;- )
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- mackem
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At a shade under 2/1 with Sunbet, I like the price for Home win by under 12.5 points for 2 of 5 units
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- davopnz
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From what I've heard it will be Bryn Gatland @ 10 with Josh Ioane @ 15 and Josh McKay on the bench.
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- mackem
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Reds v Crusaders preview
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I'm also with the Reds plus. 15.5 points at 9/10 widely available among those who have priced up right now, Will rate it 2 of 5 units
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Elsewhere, a tentative play on Reds +16.5 due to AB commitments. The caps are very well set for the local derbies so will hold out until team news becomes available.
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Elsewhere, a tentative play on Reds +16.5 due to AB commitments. The caps are very well set for the local derbies so will hold out until team news becomes available.
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- Brad Breath
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davopnz wrote: Almost certain Ben Smith & Luke Whitelock won't be playing at all against The Rebels.
From what I've heard it will be Bryn Gatland @ 10 with Josh Ioane @ 15 and Josh McKay on the bench.
No Aaron Smith either, which is huge.
Highlanders side to face Rebels: 15. Josh Ioane, 14. Waisake Naholo, 13. Thomas Umaga-Jensen, 12. Tei Walden, 11. Josh McKay, 10. Bryn Gatland, 9. Kayne Hammington, 8. Elliot Dixon, 7. James Lentjes, 6. Shannon Frizell, 5. Pari Pari Parkinson, 4. Jackson Hemopo, 3. Siate Tokolahi, 2. Ash Dixon, 1. Daniel Lienert-Brown.
Replacements: Ricky Jackson, Ayden Johnstone, Josh Iosefa-Scott, Tom Franklin, Marino Mikaele Tu'u, Folau Fakatava, Patelesio Tomkinson, Marty Banks
Missed the Rebels +6 but on +3
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- threepeat
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I previously reported that the big man would not play v Sunwolves. That was the story in the press at the time.
Apparently Colin Cooper announced yesterday on TVNZ that Retallick would play the 33 minutes available to him. Three other front line AB's being rested.
Details available at Rugbypass.com
TABNZ line has moved to -25.5
Cheers & Good Luck to everyone.
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- threepeat
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15 Chase Tiatia
14 Vince Aso
13 Matt Proctor
12 Ngani Laumape
11 Ben Lam
10 Beauden Barrett
9 TJ Perenara
8 Ardie Savea
7 Du'Plessis Kirifi
6 Vaea Fifita
5 Liam Mitchell
4 James Blackwell
3 Ben May
2 Dane Coles (c)
1 Chris Eves
Reserves
16 Ricky Riccitelli
17 Xavier Numia
18 Jeff To'omaga-Allen
19 Isaia Walker-Leawere
20 Reed Prinsep
21 Richard Judd
22 Jackson Garden-Bachop
23 Wes Goosen
No Jordie Barrett = another franchise following protocols
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- mackem
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Was initially thinking Lions -6.5 but talked myself out of it, Nibble at home win by under 12.5 points, 17/10 at Sunbet was best price at time of writing.
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- mackem
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I'm with takethegap in the Sharks camp, Sharks -5.5 points, 17/20 with Betway 2.5 of 5 units
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- mackem
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With the cap at 25.5 points with pretty much all our books and I've no firm opinion, nothing more than a nibble on Chiefs to win 21-30 inc 3/1 at WSB
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- mackem
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2 units, Either side to win by no more than 7 points including the draw at 23/20 (Sunbet)
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- mackem
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- threepeat
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Hi Couch Critic, if this is saderside, hate to see how good the real Crusaders R. But still love your column!
Crusaders v Reds
Crusaders: Will Jordan, Braydon Ennor, Jack Goodhue, Tim Bateman, George Bridge, Richie Mo'unga, Mitchell Drummond, Whetukamokamo Douglas, Matt Todd (c), Tom Sanders, Quinten Strange, Scott Barrett, Owen Franks, Andrew Makalio, Joe Moody. Reserves: Ben Funnell, Harry Allan, Michael Alaalatoa, Luke Romano, Jordan Taufua, Bryn Hall, Mitchell Hunt, David Havili.
This is no suicide /saderside! In fact doubling my bet.
Early bet 2 out of 5 Crusaders -6.5. Doubling up to 4 out of 5 Crusaders -6.5
Plus another 1 of 5 Crusaders - 12.5 full time.
All kiwi teams compling with AB gentlemans agreement. Razor could be next AB coach, so left no choice ;- )
"No your onions" O'Gara's Crusader backline attack is innovative. Just watch this game all you Lions, Bulls, Sharks & Stormers fans.
PS: You have to be an unbelievably good coach to be Irish and get a top job with the Crusaders. Apparently this guy was recommended by some guy in France called Carter.
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- mackem
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- landrews77
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And also Sharks -6,5 .The Stormers struggle to pull it off in Durban.
The Lions will take the Bulls further down ,until they are under the earth.Lions -7,5
The Hurricanes has a very good team this weekend.The Brumbies will have no answer this weekend against that team.Plumtree has said his team plan to have a good start in front of their home crowd.And a good start it will be.Hurricanes -10,5
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- MrMeeseeks86
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Sharks -6.5 at 1.90
Highlanders to win at 2.05
Good luck all!
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- BookieDave
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Hurricanes -13.0
Rebels -2.0
Chiefs -27.5
Reds +16.5
Lions -6.0
Sharks -4.0
Jaguares -2.5
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- southpaw
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Highlanders 1-12 @ 9/4
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- Northerner
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Anytime @ 13/4
First @ 28/1
Double @ 28/1
Hattrick @ 150/1
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- Brent Graham
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southpaw wrote: Just cannot have the Rebels as favourites.
Highlanders 1-12 @ 9/4
The Handicap panel was split on this one - Oracle and I agreeing with you and Hanrick and Hein on the Rebels
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- Scoembo
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1. More settled side. A lot of changes on Canes side.
2. Beauden is class but it's his first game back. Same for Fifita. No Jordie Barret. Chase Tiatia's defence was suspect for BOP although he can kill it on attack. No Jeff Toomaga-Allen. Tight five a bit light.
3. Brumbies only got stronger from last week with Pocock and Sio starting.
Overall the Brumbies beat the Canes last week on Tackle Percentage, Offloads and Successful set pieces.
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- Brad Breath
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- Northerner
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Dabble on Josh Mann Rae next Brumbies tryscorer @ 16/1
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- Northerner
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Anytime @ 13/4
First @ 20/1
Double @ 33/1
Hat trick @ 150/1
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- Brent Graham
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threepeat wrote: "second-string saderside"
Hi Couch Critic, if this is saderside, hate to see how good the real Crusaders R. But still love your column!
Glad you enjoy it Threepeat!
In all honesty I had a deadline which ended before the Crusader team was announced so was expecting Scott Barrett and Mo'unga to be rested for this one. Also, I think I said "a bit of a second string Saders side" - surely when you don't have Read, Taylor, Whitelock, Taufua, Havili or Crotty starting it isn't the absolute first choice Saders team.
But I mentioned it on The Handicap last night - this to me is the difference with the Crusaders. They have unrivalled quality in depth.
Not at all confident of the Reds + bet I called on my written preview and have instead moved toward the Saders on the HT cap.
I just love the way the Crusaders play the game and hardly ever bet against them as it usually just ends in disappointment.
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- hanrick
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- Brent Graham
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- Zambusta
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Northerner wrote: Akker VDM @ 13/4 Sharks vs Stormers. Stupid price.
Anytime @ 13/4
First @ 20/1
Double @ 33/1
Hat trick @ 150/1
Got him on a price boost at Sunbet for anytime try scorer @5
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- southpaw
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Brent Graham wrote: Weather was worse than I thought but what an awful game - thisbis what you get when you can't watch the Super Rugby games and you end up forcing bets - Leinster well off their best and Cheetahs well they just kicked and kicked
Was same for me, had a small interest on highlanders game this am but work kept me mostly out, itching for a bet took Gloucester 1-12 at ht, then witnessed a typical diabolical NH referee performance, 2 yellows, pen try, didnt even know the rules at times. Ex players do not make good referees bar the odd rare exception.
Role on tomorrow super rugby, I’m ready to fire.
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