All Football Tips w/c 4th March

Dortmund v Tottenham

An interesting match in terms of how both teams approach it. The first goal is absolutely vital, if Spurs get it then they can get the cigars out but if Dortmund get it then Spurs have the capacity to get majorly twitchy. They were cruising against Juventus last season and it only took 5 mins of relatively moderate pressure to get knocked out. It's a totally different scenario this time but if they set out to defend what they have and concede after 30 mins then it's gonna be a difficult to transition to get into a more attacking style of play. on the flip side, Dortmund have looked pretty poor recently so if Spurs approach it in a positive way they should be able to grab a goal and put it to bed. However, in situations like this my pessimism will always reign supreme and I can't see it being straight forward. I don't think the crowd will let Dortmund give in, even if they concede first, so I expect them to give it a go until the end.

Dortmund to win @ 21/20
Treble - Dortmund, Real Madrid, PSG @ 4/1
Dortmund to qualify @ 10/1 ( this will contribute to the alcohol I will need if the unthinkable happens )

After four days in the Mother City ( largely way over the drink-drive limits ) its nice to get back to my sleepy town.
Real Madrid v Ajax
Real are a team marking time for next season when they hope to replace Ronaldo. The only thing that prevents me from taking the Ajax win is Real have an uncanny knack of producing the goods in the UCL. Tonight they have to do it without Ramos and I don't think they can
Real v Ajax draw @ 34/10
(No names - no pack drill but the Book I placed with are offering the score draw at 13/4???? and the draw is 34/10???)
Dortmund v Spurs
I fancy Spurs to keep Dortmund from scoring a heap of goals and, with the Dortmund defense not exactly the greatest in town, I expect Spurs to stay close.
Dortmund to win by one goal exactly @ 32/10
Tonights beer is not going on a double because these odds are long enough
Real Madrid Total Goals Nil @ 8/1

AFC Champions League 
Sydney FC vs Ulsan Hyundai 

The Australian teams haven't been performing too well in this competition and their only good result came a few years ago, when Western Sydney Wanderers won the competition. 

Last night too, Melbourne Victory disappointed in their 1-3 home defeat to Daegu.

Sydney are aware of the pressure on them and of the fact that they need a result.
If the Australian teams continue with their poor performances, the number of teams participating in the competition will be reduced and they will have to go through qualifying rounds.

Sydney have picked up some good form in A-League and they have a tight defence. They say that they are ready for this match.

Ulsan have just started their domestic season, they defeated Suwon Blue Wings at home, 2-1.
The fact that they have just started their season doesn't really matter, as in previous years too they were in the same situation and recorded positive results. 

Sydney are up against it tonight and while I'm hesitant on an over/under in goals, and the best handicap is (0.0), which I don't like as a bet, I'm going for corners, as both teams are attack minded and will go for it. I'm hoping that they will put both defences under pressure and that will result in enough corners to win this bet.

Bet: Asian Total Corners - Over 9.0 @1.83 bet365

Right idea's last night - just the wrong bets.
UCL Wednesday
PSG v ManU
I thought PSG were a little fortunate to sneak the two second half goals a few weeks ago. Probably not the same intensity tonight so going for
ManU D/C @ 33/20
and the evenings beer is a double
ManU D/C into
Porto v Roma BTTS - No
@ 5/1

Two doubles as I tend to channel hop the Europa League matches
Eintracht v Inter into
Napoli v Salzburg
Over 2.5 match goals @ 22/10
and
Sevilla v Prague into
Rennes v Arsenal
BTTS yes @ 22/10

Fires lit - Red wine tested and whats left - breathing - perfect Friday evening with supping friends when I noticed that sciver Sturdy has taken a break from most of this weekend's EPL. Herewith first three Saturday matches - rest may follow on the morrow if my hangover is bearable.
Saturday EPL
Cardiff v West Ham
Home 24/10 Draw 49/20 Away 12/10
The reverse fixture in early December was won 3-1 by WHM. West Ham have conceded 1 goal in four of their last 5 matches and kept 1 clean sheet. Two of those matches were Liverpool and ManC. I like Neil Warnock so I am going to give him one goal and go for
West Ham Win Multi Score 2-1/3-1/4-1 @ 9/2
Huddersfield v Bournemouth
Home 24/10 Draw 9/4 Away 13/10
The reverse fixture in December was won 2-1 by Bournemouth. Bournemouth are difficult to call so lets look at Huddersfield. The last time they were involved in a match (Outside the top 6) that went over 2.5 goals was 2 Jan. They have only featured in 2 0-0 draws - home and away to Cardiff. I think we can accept match goals of 1 or 2 here. We don't get that market in SA (not at any of my books) so my pick would be
Match goals 2 exactly @ 24/10
Leicester v Fulham
Home 6/10 Draw 33/10 Away 9/2
The reverse fixture in December finished 1-1. Leicester have a new manager and Ranieri is returning to the King Power. Probably a game to be avoided. I am tempted to go with the Mackem bail-out of 2-3 goals but I am made of sterner stuff. Returning managers either do very well or get their arse handed to them on a plate. Choices here are the Fulham win at 9/2 or my pick which is
Leicester to score over 2.5 goals @ 19/10
( Apologies if stats not accurate or typo's - time to drink )

Balance of Saturday EPL
Newcastle v Everton
Home 18/10 Draw 43/20 Away 7/4
The reverse fixture in December finished 1-1.
Newcastle have won their last four home matches including 2-1 over ManC. Everton's form has been as erratic as their managers selections and I don't believe we need look any further then
Newcastle win @ 18/10
Southampton V Spurs
Home 32/10 Draw 11/4 Away 17/20
The reverse fixture in December was won 3-1 by Spurs.
Spurs have the best away record in the EPL - Played 15 with 11-0-4. Of their 11 wins 6 have been by the odd goal. Southampton went down by one goal at Old Trafford last time out and I expect Spurs to win a close match here
Spurs to win by one goal exactly @ 57/20
Manchester City v Watford
Home 1/6 Draw 15/2 Away 16/1
The reverse fixture in December was won 2-1 by ManC.
With de Bruyne out Pep needs to decide between Sane and Mahrez for the visit of Schalke in the UCL next week. I think he will give his choice a 60 minute run out in this match and then sub him. Sane and Mahrez are both around 5/1 to score the last goal so I will be waiting for the team sheets and taking a last goal punt on whoever starts on the bench. Odds should balloon out to around the 7/1 mark. The goals markets odds are slim at the top end but if you want to place early on this match - Liverpool were two up inside 20 minutes against Watford last week so this bet has potential
First Half European Cap
ManC -1 @ 7/4

Saturday acca
Newcastle
Spurs
Man City
Sheff Utd
Sunderland
all to win @ 15/1

Late post - waiting to see weather at Selhurst Park
Going with Mackem's over 1.5 and also taking
First half goals over 1.5 @ 25/10

Southampton v Tottenham

Like the look of the line up. Attacking full backs, solid midfield and Dele and Lucas should be up for it. Spurs are due a decent attacking performance so a couple of modest size bets

Spurs to score 3 or more @ 3/1
Spurs -1 @ 9/4

In all my time of supporting Spurs it's hard to remember such a contrast between the two halves. First brilliant, second appalling. Going forward it might be worth betting at half time, if they look good back against them second half and visa versa. Going on the sauce now

Man City v Watford

Couple of bets for the watch

Aguero and Sterling to score and Capoue to be carded @11/1

City to score 5 or more @ 3/1

Sunday EPL
Liverpool v Burnley
Home 1/6 Draw 27/4 Away 16/1
The reverse fixture in December was won 3-1 by Liverpool when they were flying. Liverpool have not run up a big score against Burnley for a while now. Last 5 matches - the 3-1 in December - 2 single goal wins - 1 draw - 1 defeat. Burnley scored in all of these matches - 4 singles and 2 a few years ago. Catsmug has given us a weather update from down the road and it looks poor. I think Liverpool struggle today and would gladly accept a one goal win before kick-off. Tempted by the draw odds but will go with what Burnley have achieved 4 from 5 times in the recent past
Burnley One Goal exactly @ 18/10
and Mackem will be delighted to know a few beers will be going on
van Dijk ATGS @ 15/1

Liverpool 3 or more goals @ 4/5. Despite weather concerns I really fancy this one.

The Vann wrote: Sunday EPL
Liverpool v Burnley
Home 1/6 Draw 27/4 Away 16/1
van Dijk ATGS @ 15/1

Odds correction
van Dijk ATGS odds around 13/2 - Above was for last goal scorer but you can get 18/1 for that bet at Sportingbet.

Just taken a spread on the first ManU goal - short at 75 min when I noticed the book had priced up ManC v Schalke with the draw on offer at 15/2 in the UCL. Had to have me some of that.