Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
- Brent Graham
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Here are my projected caps (I haven't seen bookmaker caps but see GGG is out and will compare in the video
Chiefs +8.5 v Canes
Brumbies -2.5 v Waratahs
Stormers -6.5 v Jaguares
Sunwolves +6.5 v Reds
Highlanders +7.5 v Crusaders
Lions -9.5 v Rebels
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- Brent Graham
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- southpaw
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Saders -6.5. Game under roof = perfect for Saders. Not sure Highlanders will be able to keep up. Would be on that, can see it a penalty score higher by tomorrow.
Lions minus. I'll be looking for best minus and it will be my best bet of the round. The Rebels came back well but a full strength Lions side at altitude with have these Aussies gasping for air. Will be on the hunt with bookies in the morning.
Reds choice - so tempting but as BG says, can't trust them.
Stormers minus - also tempting but Jags will prefer the type of game Stormers play so would be leaning Jags plus at this point.
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- threepeat
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Chiefs will take another substantial beating at home this week. Will look at Hurricanes 13+, but TAB odds not yet posted. Chiefs then have to travel to Pretoria for Round 6, and they are not even aware that Oracle, the Granny Fund, and his followers are waiting for them like a pride of lions out for the kill. Get your bets on early for that one!
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- southpaw
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- Brazil
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,seems like GGgaming have closed the market,fearful everyone is gonna play em.
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- mackem
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Not sure what the exact weather is in Stellenbosch but 80km away it has been bucketing down for 18 hours. Certainly not favoring high scores.
Maties v UJ
UJ + 35 @ 9/10
Also have not been impressed by Pukke this year and I expected around a 10-12 point cap but Sunbet have
Pukke v Ikeys
Ikeys +18.5 @ 9/10
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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- coil
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Brumbies -2.5 v Waratahs
Stormers -6.5 v Jaguares
Sunwolves +6.5 v Reds
Highlanders +7.5 v Crusaders
Lions -9.5 v Rebels
Brent's above and without looking here are mine below.
Chiefs plus 10.5
Brumbies minus 1.5
Stormers minus 6.5
Wolves plus 3.5
High plus 10.5
Lions minus 9.5.
All pretty close it seems , early on I like Crusaders, Lions, and Jags.
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- shaft
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"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- Kirky
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Just saying - grin...
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- Brent Graham
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- threepeat
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TAB NZ caps v Brent Graham comparison:
Chiefs +8.5 v Canes +6.5
Brumbies -2.5 v Waratahs -.5
Stormers -6.5 v Jaguares -7.5
Sunwolves +6.5 v Reds -3.5
Highlanders +7.5 v Crusaders +7.5
Lions -9.5 v Rebels -7.5
Biggest difference SunKiwis. Brent may not be aware that these guys are in a training group with the Cherry Blossoms and still coached indirectly by Joseph & Brown, and therefore getting respect downunder.
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- Brent Graham
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Thanks De Jager, nice to hit Shimlas game right for a change although they nearly screwed me again
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- threepeat
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Thanks De Jager, nice to hit Shimlas game right for a change although they nearly screwed me again
Confirming -3.5
Here is the screen shot from tab.co.nz
SportRugby UnionSuper RugbySuper RugbySunwolves v Reds
Sat 5.15pm
SUPER RUGBY
Sunwolves
vs
Reds
TOP OPTIONS (6)
MATCH OPTIONS (10)
POINTS & TRY OPTIONS (4)
HALF OPTIONS (
MORE
HEAD TO HEAD
March Madness! Money back on pre match Head To Head bets if your team loses by 10 or less. T's & C's apply, see Punters Lounge for details.
Sunwolves
1.71
Reds
2.11
MATCH RESULT
Sunwolves
1.74
Draw
25.00
Reds
2.15
POINTS START
Sunwolves
[ -3.5 ]
2.00
Reds
[ +3.5 ]
1.81
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- threepeat
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Brodie Retallick was the worlds best rugger in 2014. Surpassed the mighty Victor Matfield in locking, but has now been surpassed by Ireland's James Ryan and Whitelock & Barrett are mighty mighty for the Crusaders.
Still a great player, but no captain. Hopeless coaching in Hamilton. Cane still injured and other Chiefs leaders playing in Europe.
Back up the truck.
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/ch...betting-preview.html
2 units, Either team wins by 7 or Less (incl. Draw) at 16/10 Sunbet
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- hanrick
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- mackem
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hanrick wrote: You're a brave man, Mackem.
lol Hanrick., My search to find the bottom for the Chiefs continues although this week I have a narrow win for the Canes also batting for me. As bad as its been for the Chiefs I don't see the Canes have been that great, pretty lucky in 2 of their 3 wins imo.
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- hanrick
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mackem wrote:
hanrick wrote: You're a brave man, Mackem.
lol Hanrick., My search to find the bottom for the Chiefs continues although this week I have a narrow win for the Canes also batting for me. As bad as its been for the Chiefs I don't see the Canes have been that great, pretty lucky in 2 of their 3 wins imo.
Good points, but rain didn't help Canes last week. For me the Chiefs' big problem is their passive defence. They give the attacking team far to much time with ball in hand. Canes' dangerous backs will cut them to shreds.
I think we will see Dmac move to 15 and Debreczeni to start at 10 this week, which will already be a step in the right direction for the Chiefs.
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- threepeat
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You're a brave man, Mackem.
Brent, your administrator has gone gg mad, on that bus of yours lol!
Already on Canes -6.5, , Will look for more when teams announced. Mackem u r not brave u r on brent's bus, get off before the asylum. All punters be warned admin has gone gg mad.
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- RuggaBugga
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Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- mackem
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Maybe I can restore sanity with this one.
6 Nations England v Scotland
goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/e...betting-preview.html
3.5 units England -16 points (tie in play) at Sportingbet, if it comes up dry I can see the line moving to 20, opinions on that most welcome.
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- Brad Breath
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mackem wrote: Enjoying the banter about the Chiefs
Maybe I can restore sanity with this one.
6 Nations England v Scotland
goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/e...betting-preview.html
3.5 units England -16 points (tie in play) at Sportingbet, if it comes up dry I can see the line moving to 20, opinions on that most welcome.
Sanity restored, at least somewhat, I agree strongly on this one.
Managed to get some -15 yesterday, it's already -18 with most books up North.
P.s. Will be opposing the Chiefs again this week, even though the Canes front 5 is about as weak as a soggy cardboard box
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- mackem
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I like the 22/10 at WSB for a Tahs win by under 12.5 points for 2 units
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- mackem
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Really stuck on this one so 2 speculative plays.
0.5 units Most tries, tie 6/1 BetXchange
0.5 units Halftime / Fulltime, Jaguares/Stormers 27/5 Sunbet
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- mackem
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2 units HT/FT Sunwolves/Sunwolves at 13/10
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- landrews77
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landrews77 wrote: Mecham , which other bookie provides this bet : either team to win by 7 or less.
Sure Ive seen it somewhere else but can't remember where or even if it was an international or Super Rugby. Also suspect it was nearer to kick of as more markets get added. Will look out for it and let you know if I spot it.
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- mackem
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2 units, Crusaders to win by under 12.5 points at 7/4 Sunbet
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- landrews77
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Marty Meckensie will start at 10 and Damien shift to the Back. Cooper has made 6 changes.
This game can be won by either team.Chiefs team looks better than the previous 4 rounds.
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- landrews77
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mackem wrote:
landrews77 wrote: Mecham , which other bookie provides this bet : either team to win by 7 or less.
Sure Ive seen it somewhere else but can't remember where or even if it was an international or Super Rugby. Also suspect it was nearer to kick of as more markets get added. Will look out for it and let you know if I spot it.
Thanks Meckem.
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- landrews77
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I am with Mechem on Stormers vs Jag : HT/FT : Jag/Stormers
Also like the Brumbies as my next Best . Warathas , for me , was for the past rounds not on fire. I feel the Brumbies will have a edge. Brumbies under 12,5 my like.
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- shaft
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landrews77 wrote: Mecham , which other bookie provides this bet : either team to win by 7 or less.
Unibet. Looks like the exact same offering.
"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- mackem
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I'm with Rebels +7.5 points 19/20 at Betway for 2 units although their terrible record in SA is a worry.
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- mackem
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Firstly, Chiefs +9.5 is golden. Chiefs have had a horrible start to the season and will need to bounce back. Playing at home and with DMac back at 15 is huge.
Eyeing out Stormers -6.5. Stormers are different beasts at Newlands and welcome back Kitsoff at 1 making them have a quality pack. Except them to dominate set pieces.
Brumbies to beat Tahs at home. Brumbies (even without Pocock) will be eyeing out this fixture. After an indifferent start to the season, they won't want to lose another Aussie derby at home and I believe the line should be -3.5 rather than a choice game.
Finally, Wolves @0.92 to beat Reds at home. In this fixture last year the cap was at +7.5 in favour of the wolves and they comfortably beat the cap. The Wolves will be aware of the fact that they have to put in performances in light of the World Cup and will be sure to be targeting this fixture against the youngest side in the comp.
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- AllorNothing
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I am struggling to find a bookie willing to take my bets.
Sometimes I have to bet on 5 different sites to enable me to place the bet I want to.
It seems to me that in the last year a lot of bookies became very risk adverse? Probably because we have been causing them some damage..
Also I have heard that one can become a VIP punter which will enable you to place larger bets?
Any ideas?
Stormers -7.5 Golden Matera, Creevy and Orlando most likely out. Scrum penalty Scrum penalty Scrum penalty all day!
Brumbies Win Waratahs full of stars all out of form. Tom Banks for the double.
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- threepeat
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Line now -2.5 @ TAB NZ
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Reserves: 16-Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17-Ryan Coxon, 18-Angus Ta'avao, 19-Taleni Seu, 20-Te Toiroa Tahuiorangi, 22-Alex Nankivell, 23-Etene Nanai-Seturo
Marty McKenzie back from hip injury, lining up anywhere near " Hurricane wrecking ball" Laumaphe in the 12 channel ...... hmmm we should notify the players association for new protocols as we all know how this ends lol
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- RuggaBugga
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- Northerner
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Anytime @ 23/10
First @ 20/1
Team first @ 9/1
Double @ 20/1
Hatrick @ 100/1
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- mackem
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- southpaw
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Ireland win, then England just need a win of any kind. 18.5 would look too high.
Wales bonus point win = England Scotland points markets overs for me.
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- mackem
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I'm with Wales, best price right now I've seen locally is 17/20 at GG Gaming
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mackem wrote: Thursday night's edition of "The Handicap" will be live from 21:00
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caught the show in background and was enjoying it up until Hanrick's best bet Rebels +.
Got me worried but i'm already down on Lions +7 as one my better bets. Nervy times. Off to google this Tyrone Green.
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- hanrick
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Superrugby:
Chiefs vs Hurricanes:
Positive move by the Chiefs to move DMac to 15, but why start his brother at 10. Marty not even Mitre10 Cup quality. I would have picked Debreczeni at 10. Chiefs has been way too passive on defence this year and thus allowing the attacking team too much time with ball in hand. I reckon the Canes’ dangerous backs will cut them to shreds.
Hurricanes -7 at even money for me.
Brumbies vs Waratahs:
Even though Pocock isn’t playing the Brumbies has shown me enough to take them to win at home. Aussie games normally tight so preference for 1 – 12 market. This looks like an unders game, even the right ref aswell for unders in Glen Jackson.
Brumbies 1 – 12 at 1.95/1 and unders on total points at about 50.5
Stormers vs Jaguares:
Jaguares have clearly targeted this game. Last week they played with a complete 2nd string team and next week they have a bye. So this is the game they think they can win on tour. Stormers should dominate them in the scrums though and I think the Stormers will do enough to win the game. Stormers not the kind of team that put other teams away and I think the Jaguares will be well up for this game and run them close. This also has all the makings for an unders game, except for the ref. Stormers have struggled to score tries and it’s a 19:00 kick-off.
Stormers 1 – 12 at 1.75/1 and unders on total points at about 47.5
Sunwolves vs Reds:
I find it strange that Brad Thorn has decided to rest some of his frontline players for this game. I thought he would target this game as a sure win. Sunwolves has been impressive though and look very well coached. With the style the Sunwolves play there is bound to be points in this game, although the quote should be high and last I checked there was a chance of rain in Tokyo during the game.
Sunwolves -2 at 10/11
Highlanders vs Crusaders:
Crusaders have started fast so far in all their games and have covered the first half handicap in 3 of the 4 games. Only exception was in Brisbane where Kerevi scored just before halftime. Highlanders on the other hand have started slowly and have trailed in all their games except the game against the Reds. On that evidence the halftime minus on the Crusaders look good.
Crusaders -4 halftime handicap at even money.
Lions vs Rebels:
Reading the sentiment on the forum and watching the line movement I’m against the grain a bit here. The Rebels have a very good coach and they have played very well so far. This is not the Rebels of previous seasons. They look like they are going to win the Aussie conference. The Lions looked good on attack last week, but it was against a 2nd string Jaguares side who were never really interested in the game. The Rebels will win this game so the plus looks VERY generous. Rebels on the plus is my best bet of the weekend and I will also back the Rebels to win the game.
This game has overs written all over it! If you look at the factors that influence overs and unders, it’s as if the stars have aligned for overs here. It’s a 15:00 game at altitude, with Egon Seconds the ref and both teams play a nice attacking style of rugby. Because I’m so confident that the Rebels will win, I will rather take overs on Rebels points than on total points. I think that total points will be around 55.5 and with a handicap of 8.5, I think we should get a quote of about 23.5 or 24.5 on Rebels points. I’ll be all over the Rebels overs here.
Rebels +8.5 at 9/10 and overs on Rebels points at about 24.5
Six nations:
I have two longterm bets pending on the six nations. England to score the most points of all teams at 2.75/1 and under 690.5 total points at 7/10. So far there has been 529 points so I have 161 points in the bag, working out to about 53 points per game.
Italy vs France:
Although England destroyed Italy last week, Italy has impressed me in patches this year. At home they are normally very good and you can’t really make a case for the French at the moment, especially on the road. I give Italy a chance to win the game so the plus on Italy is the best of the 3 six nations games for me.
Italy +10 (tie in play) at 10/11
Wales vs Ireland:
Game of the weekend. I’m not very strong on this game, but although Wales are undefeated, they are yet to impress me. Ireland has been shocking in a few games, but I just have a feeling that on St Patricks weekend they will end Wales’ winning streak. It should be close though.
Ireland 1 – 12 at 18/10
England vs Scotland:
Of all this weekend’s games this is the one I fancy least. Everything points to a comfortable victory for England, but with rain predicted for Twickenham I won’t be surprised if it’s closer than expected. If Wales beat Ireland in the previous game Wales get a bonus 3 log points because of the grandslam so then England have nothing to play for.
No bet for me here
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