Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #1 by Brent Graham
Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5 was created by Brent Graham
Although the Blues dropped me once again I had nice wins on the Jags and Bulls points so looking forward to week 5 already

Here are my projected caps (I haven't seen bookmaker caps but see GGG is out and will compare in the video

Chiefs +8.5 v Canes
Brumbies -2.5 v Waratahs
Stormers -6.5 v Jaguares
Sunwolves +6.5 v Reds
Highlanders +7.5 v Crusaders
Lions -9.5 v Rebels

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
The following user(s) said Thank You: Brad Breath, threepeat

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #2 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
And here is the video wrapping up last week, sharing my projections and also comparing to GGGaming - Sunwolves the big difference but I may be wrong on that one


Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #3 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
I haven't yet has time to get an account set up on GGGaming, so i'm not able to back these, but standout -

Saders -6.5. Game under roof = perfect for Saders. Not sure Highlanders will be able to keep up. Would be on that, can see it a penalty score higher by tomorrow.

Lions minus. I'll be looking for best minus and it will be my best bet of the round. The Rebels came back well but a full strength Lions side at altitude with have these Aussies gasping for air. Will be on the hunt with bookies in the morning.

Reds choice - so tempting but as BG says, can't trust them.

Stormers minus - also tempting but Jags will prefer the type of game Stormers play so would be leaning Jags plus at this point.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Brad Breath

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #4 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Hard to be a Chiefs fan these days.

Chiefs will take another substantial beating at home this week. Will look at Hurricanes 13+, but TAB odds not yet posted. Chiefs then have to travel to Pretoria for Round 6, and they are not even aware that Oracle, the Granny Fund, and his followers are waiting for them like a pride of lions out for the kill. Get your bets on early for that one!

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #5 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Taken Lions -7 @ 10/11

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #6 by Brazil
Replied by Brazil on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
:) Sunwolves installed as favorites for the first time,the only major difference.-3
,seems like GGgaming have closed the market,fearful everyone is gonna play em.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #7 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Latest edition of Post Match Scuffle from Couch Critic, The Yorkie and the Bottle Store

goodforthegame.co.za/Couch-Critic/post-m...he-bottle-store.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #8 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Super Rugby outright and conference winner update

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/su...-betting-update.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #9 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
See there is no thread for Varsity Cup so will post here.
Not sure what the exact weather is in Stellenbosch but 80km away it has been bucketing down for 18 hours. Certainly not favoring high scores.
Maties v UJ
UJ + 35 @ 9/10
Also have not been impressed by Pukke this year and I expected around a 10-12 point cap but Sunbet have
Pukke v Ikeys
Ikeys +18.5 @ 9/10

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #10 by ThoughtsOnSports
Replied by ThoughtsOnSports on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
In Stellenbosch currently. Rain has stopped but it's still overcast and humid. Going UWC +7.5, UJ +35 and Ikeys +18.5

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #11 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Chiefs +8.5 v Canes
Brumbies -2.5 v Waratahs
Stormers -6.5 v Jaguares
Sunwolves +6.5 v Reds
Highlanders +7.5 v Crusaders
Lions -9.5 v Rebels

Brent's above and without looking here are mine below.

Chiefs plus 10.5
Brumbies minus 1.5
Stormers minus 6.5
Wolves plus 3.5
High plus 10.5
Lions minus 9.5.

All pretty close it seems , early on I like Crusaders, Lions, and Jags.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #12 by shaft
Replied by shaft on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Not strong on anything this week.. But anything is possible with Ikeys it seems. Small play on them to win at 13/2

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #13 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
If I can get +6.5 or any plus on Sunwolves when Sunbet comes out - I'll put my nanna's pension on it...
Just saying - grin...

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #14 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
-8.5 Tuks my only bet of the night

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
The following user(s) said Thank You: De Jager

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #15 by De Jager
Replied by De Jager on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Nice call Brent!

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #16 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Brent Graham projected caps (I haven't seen bookmaker caps but see GGG is out and will compare in the video )

TAB NZ caps v Brent Graham comparison:

Chiefs +8.5 v Canes +6.5
Brumbies -2.5 v Waratahs -.5
Stormers -6.5 v Jaguares -7.5
Sunwolves +6.5 v Reds -3.5
Highlanders +7.5 v Crusaders +7.5
Lions -9.5 v Rebels -7.5

Biggest difference SunKiwis. Brent may not be aware that these guys are in a training group with the Cherry Blossoms and still coached indirectly by Joseph & Brown, and therefore getting respect downunder.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #17 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
So Sunwolves are -3.5 at TAB NZ?

Thanks De Jager, nice to hit Shimlas game right for a change although they nearly screwed me again

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #18 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Brent Graham So Sunwolves are -3.5 at TAB NZ?

Thanks De Jager, nice to hit Shimlas game right for a change although they nearly screwed me again

Confirming -3.5
Here is the screen shot from tab.co.nz

SportRugby UnionSuper RugbySuper RugbySunwolves v Reds
Sat 5.15pm
SUPER RUGBY
Sunwolves
vs
Reds
TOP OPTIONS (6)
MATCH OPTIONS (10)
POINTS & TRY OPTIONS (4)
HALF OPTIONS (8)
MORE
HEAD TO HEAD
March Madness! Money back on pre match Head To Head bets if your team loses by 10 or less. T's & C's apply, see Punters Lounge for details.

Sunwolves
1.71

Reds
2.11
MATCH RESULT

Sunwolves
1.74

Draw
25.00

Reds
2.15
POINTS START

Sunwolves
[ -3.5 ]
2.00

Reds
[ +3.5 ]
1.81
The following user(s) said Thank You: De Jager

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #19 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
My early bet Canes -6.5 Money for jam (5 out of 5) Oracle will go 10 out of 5 lol plus granny fund.

Brodie Retallick was the worlds best rugger in 2014. Surpassed the mighty Victor Matfield in locking, but has now been surpassed by Ireland's James Ryan and Whitelock & Barrett are mighty mighty for the Crusaders.

Still a great player, but no captain. Hopeless coaching in Hamilton. Cane still injured and other Chiefs leaders playing in Europe.

Back up the truck.
The following user(s) said Thank You: mackem

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #20 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Chiefs v Hurricanes preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/ch...betting-preview.html

2 units, Either team wins by 7 or Less (incl. Draw) at 16/10 Sunbet

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #21 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
You're a brave man, Mackem.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #22 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

hanrick wrote: You're a brave man, Mackem.


:cheer: :cheer: :cheer:

lol Hanrick., My search to find the bottom for the Chiefs continues although this week I have a narrow win for the Canes also batting for me. As bad as its been for the Chiefs I don't see the Canes have been that great, pretty lucky in 2 of their 3 wins imo.

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago - 5 years 2 weeks ago #23 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

mackem wrote:

hanrick wrote: You're a brave man, Mackem.


:cheer: :cheer: :cheer:

lol Hanrick., My search to find the bottom for the Chiefs continues although this week I have a narrow win for the Canes also batting for me. As bad as its been for the Chiefs I don't see the Canes have been that great, pretty lucky in 2 of their 3 wins imo.


Good points, but rain didn't help Canes last week. For me the Chiefs' big problem is their passive defence. They give the attacking team far to much time with ball in hand. Canes' dangerous backs will cut them to shreds.

I think we will see Dmac move to 15 and Debreczeni to start at 10 this week, which will already be a step in the right direction for the Chiefs.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
Last edit: 5 years 2 weeks ago by hanrick.
The following user(s) said Thank You: threepeat

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #24 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
"hanrick" post

You're a brave man, Mackem.

Brent, your administrator has gone gg mad, on that bus of yours lol!


Already on Canes -6.5, , Will look for more when teams announced. Mackem u r not brave u r on brent's bus, get off before the asylum. All punters be warned admin has gone gg mad.
The following user(s) said Thank You: mackem

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #25 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Chiefs will not win a game this season with Dmac at 10

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #26 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Enjoying the banter about the Chiefs :)

Maybe I can restore sanity with this one. ;)

6 Nations England v Scotland

goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/e...betting-preview.html

3.5 units England -16 points (tie in play) at Sportingbet, if it comes up dry I can see the line moving to 20, opinions on that most welcome.

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago - 5 years 2 weeks ago #27 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

mackem wrote: Enjoying the banter about the Chiefs :)

Maybe I can restore sanity with this one. ;)

6 Nations England v Scotland

goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/e...betting-preview.html

3.5 units England -16 points (tie in play) at Sportingbet, if it comes up dry I can see the line moving to 20, opinions on that most welcome.


Sanity restored, at least somewhat, I agree strongly on this one.
Managed to get some -15 yesterday, it's already -18 with most books up North.

P.s. Will be opposing the Chiefs again this week, even though the Canes front 5 is about as weak as a soggy cardboard box
Last edit: 5 years 2 weeks ago by Brad Breath. Reason: Punctuation
The following user(s) said Thank You: mackem

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #28 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Brumbies v Waratahs preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/br...betting-preview.html

I like the 22/10 at WSB for a Tahs win by under 12.5 points for 2 units

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #29 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Stormers v Jaguares preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/st...betting-preview.html

Really stuck on this one so 2 speculative plays.

0.5 units Most tries, tie 6/1 BetXchange
0.5 units Halftime / Fulltime, Jaguares/Stormers 27/5 Sunbet

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #30 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Sunwolves v Reds preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/su...betting-preview.html

2 units HT/FT Sunwolves/Sunwolves at 13/10

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #31 by landrews77
Replied by landrews77 on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Mecham , which other bookie provides this bet : either team to win by 7 or less.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #32 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

landrews77 wrote: Mecham , which other bookie provides this bet : either team to win by 7 or less.


Sure Ive seen it somewhere else but can't remember where or even if it was an international or Super Rugby. Also suspect it was nearer to kick of as more markets get added. Will look out for it and let you know if I spot it.

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #33 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Highlanders v Crusaders preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/hi...betting-preview.html

2 units, Crusaders to win by under 12.5 points at 7/4 Sunbet

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #34 by landrews77
Replied by landrews77 on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Chiefs vs Hurricanes

Marty Meckensie will start at 10 and Damien shift to the Back. Cooper has made 6 changes.
This game can be won by either team.Chiefs team looks better than the previous 4 rounds.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #35 by landrews77
Replied by landrews77 on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

mackem wrote:

landrews77 wrote: Mecham , which other bookie provides this bet : either team to win by 7 or less.


Sure Ive seen it somewhere else but can't remember where or even if it was an international or Super Rugby. Also suspect it was nearer to kick of as more markets get added. Will look out for it and let you know if I spot it.


Thanks Meckem.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #36 by landrews77
Replied by landrews77 on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
I like the LIONS vs Rebels this weekend. Make LIONS my BEST BET : -7,5
I am with Mechem on Stormers vs Jag : HT/FT : Jag/Stormers

Also like the Brumbies as my next Best . Warathas , for me , was for the past rounds not on fire. I feel the Brumbies will have a edge. Brumbies under 12,5 my like.
The following user(s) said Thank You: mackem

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #37 by shaft
Replied by shaft on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

landrews77 wrote: Mecham , which other bookie provides this bet : either team to win by 7 or less.


Unibet. Looks like the exact same offering.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #38 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Lions v Rebels preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/li...betting-preview.html

I'm with Rebels +7.5 points 19/20 at Betway for 2 units although their terrible record in SA is a worry.

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #39 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Many thanks to Couch Critic for his Round 5 Super Rugby preview with a tip for each match,

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...round-5-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #40 by ThoughtsOnSports
Replied by ThoughtsOnSports on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
This weekend sees a lot of value for me.
Firstly, Chiefs +9.5 is golden. Chiefs have had a horrible start to the season and will need to bounce back. Playing at home and with DMac back at 15 is huge.

Eyeing out Stormers -6.5. Stormers are different beasts at Newlands and welcome back Kitsoff at 1 making them have a quality pack. Except them to dominate set pieces.

Brumbies to beat Tahs at home. Brumbies (even without Pocock) will be eyeing out this fixture. After an indifferent start to the season, they won't want to lose another Aussie derby at home and I believe the line should be -3.5 rather than a choice game.

Finally, Wolves @0.92 to beat Reds at home. In this fixture last year the cap was at +7.5 in favour of the wolves and they comfortably beat the cap. The Wolves will be aware of the fact that they have to put in performances in light of the World Cup and will be sure to be targeting this fixture against the youngest side in the comp.

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #41 by AllorNothing
Replied by AllorNothing on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Hey Guys

I am struggling to find a bookie willing to take my bets.
Sometimes I have to bet on 5 different sites to enable me to place the bet I want to.
It seems to me that in the last year a lot of bookies became very risk adverse? Probably because we have been causing them some damage..
Also I have heard that one can become a VIP punter which will enable you to place larger bets?

Any ideas?
Stormers -7.5 Golden Matera, Creevy and Orlando most likely out. Scrum penalty Scrum penalty Scrum penalty all day!
Brumbies Win Waratahs full of stars all out of form. Tom Banks for the double.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago - 5 years 2 weeks ago #42 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Former Rebels No 8 Amanaki Mafi is being tipped to make a return for the Sunwolves this weekend. Previously an absolute standout for the Rebels and Brave Blossoms.

Line now -2.5 @ TAB NZ
Last edit: 5 years 2 weeks ago by threepeat. Reason: spelling error

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #43 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Chiefs: 1-Aidan Ross, 2-Nathan Harris, 3-Nepo Laulala, 4-Brodie Retallick, 5-Michael Allardice, 6-Mitchell Brown, 7-Michell Karpick, 8-Tyler Ardron, 9-Brad Weber, 10-Marty McKenzie, 11-Ataata Moeakiola, 12-Anton Lienert-Brown, 13-Tumua Manu, 14-Sean Wainui, 15-Damian McKenzie

Reserves: 16-Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17-Ryan Coxon, 18-Angus Ta'avao, 19-Taleni Seu, 20-Te Toiroa Tahuiorangi, 22-Alex Nankivell, 23-Etene Nanai-Seturo

Marty McKenzie back from hip injury, lining up anywhere near " Hurricane wrecking ball" Laumaphe in the 12 channel ...... hmmm we should notify the players association for new protocols as we all know how this ends lol

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #44 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
I really fancy the Stormers this weekend. Missed the -6.5 available so on the -7.5. Eben has been great and sorted the lineout out upon his return, the ginger back in the front row is huge and like the look of their backline. Jags were decent against the Lions Varsity Cup team but this will be a tougher challenge. WP Jou Lekker Ding!!!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #45 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
The usual bet on Fainga’a has been placed. Odds slowly but surely falling week by week with bet365 since he keeps on scoring. This price still very much value though imo, think it’s 4 in 4 for him now and an Aussie Derby is just the type of game for the Brumbies to resort to their go to maul

Anytime @ 23/10
First @ 20/1
Team first @ 9/1
Double @ 20/1
Hatrick @ 100/1

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #46 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Thursday night's edition of "The Handicap" will be live from 21:00



If you wish to comment on the show whilst it's live please use this link to our Youtube channel

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #47 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
I see the England cap is out to 18.5. I think there will be better value in a market like England 1st half cap -8. If Wales win and Eng need the bonus point they will start fast.

Ireland win, then England just need a win of any kind. 18.5 would look too high.

Wales bonus point win = England Scotland points markets overs for me.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 2 weeks ago #48 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Wales v Ireland 6 Nations preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/w...betting-preview.html

I'm with Wales, best price right now I've seen locally is 17/20 at GG Gaming

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 1 week ago #49 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

mackem wrote: Thursday night's edition of "The Handicap" will be live from 21:00



If you wish to comment on the show whilst it's live please use this link to our Youtube channel


caught the show in background and was enjoying it up until Hanrick's best bet Rebels +. :unsure:
Got me worried but i'm already down on Lions +7 as one my better bets. Nervy times. Off to google this Tyrone Green.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
5 years 1 week ago #50 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Eskom made sure I couldn’t be on The Handicap tonight so thought I would do a write up of my fancies as I have already done a lot of research for the show.

Superrugby:

Chiefs vs Hurricanes:

Positive move by the Chiefs to move DMac to 15, but why start his brother at 10. Marty not even Mitre10 Cup quality. I would have picked Debreczeni at 10. Chiefs has been way too passive on defence this year and thus allowing the attacking team too much time with ball in hand. I reckon the Canes’ dangerous backs will cut them to shreds.

Hurricanes -7 at even money for me.

Brumbies vs Waratahs:

Even though Pocock isn’t playing the Brumbies has shown me enough to take them to win at home. Aussie games normally tight so preference for 1 – 12 market. This looks like an unders game, even the right ref aswell for unders in Glen Jackson.

Brumbies 1 – 12 at 1.95/1 and unders on total points at about 50.5

Stormers vs Jaguares:

Jaguares have clearly targeted this game. Last week they played with a complete 2nd string team and next week they have a bye. So this is the game they think they can win on tour. Stormers should dominate them in the scrums though and I think the Stormers will do enough to win the game. Stormers not the kind of team that put other teams away and I think the Jaguares will be well up for this game and run them close. This also has all the makings for an unders game, except for the ref. Stormers have struggled to score tries and it’s a 19:00 kick-off.

Stormers 1 – 12 at 1.75/1 and unders on total points at about 47.5

Sunwolves vs Reds:

I find it strange that Brad Thorn has decided to rest some of his frontline players for this game. I thought he would target this game as a sure win. Sunwolves has been impressive though and look very well coached. With the style the Sunwolves play there is bound to be points in this game, although the quote should be high and last I checked there was a chance of rain in Tokyo during the game.

Sunwolves -2 at 10/11

Highlanders vs Crusaders:

Crusaders have started fast so far in all their games and have covered the first half handicap in 3 of the 4 games. Only exception was in Brisbane where Kerevi scored just before halftime. Highlanders on the other hand have started slowly and have trailed in all their games except the game against the Reds. On that evidence the halftime minus on the Crusaders look good.

Crusaders -4 halftime handicap at even money.

Lions vs Rebels:

Reading the sentiment on the forum and watching the line movement I’m against the grain a bit here. The Rebels have a very good coach and they have played very well so far. This is not the Rebels of previous seasons. They look like they are going to win the Aussie conference. The Lions looked good on attack last week, but it was against a 2nd string Jaguares side who were never really interested in the game. The Rebels will win this game so the plus looks VERY generous. Rebels on the plus is my best bet of the weekend and I will also back the Rebels to win the game.

This game has overs written all over it! If you look at the factors that influence overs and unders, it’s as if the stars have aligned for overs here. It’s a 15:00 game at altitude, with Egon Seconds the ref and both teams play a nice attacking style of rugby. Because I’m so confident that the Rebels will win, I will rather take overs on Rebels points than on total points. I think that total points will be around 55.5 and with a handicap of 8.5, I think we should get a quote of about 23.5 or 24.5 on Rebels points. I’ll be all over the Rebels overs here.

Rebels +8.5 at 9/10 and overs on Rebels points at about 24.5

Six nations:

I have two longterm bets pending on the six nations. England to score the most points of all teams at 2.75/1 and under 690.5 total points at 7/10. So far there has been 529 points so I have 161 points in the bag, working out to about 53 points per game.

Italy vs France:

Although England destroyed Italy last week, Italy has impressed me in patches this year. At home they are normally very good and you can’t really make a case for the French at the moment, especially on the road. I give Italy a chance to win the game so the plus on Italy is the best of the 3 six nations games for me.

Italy +10 (tie in play) at 10/11

Wales vs Ireland:

Game of the weekend. I’m not very strong on this game, but although Wales are undefeated, they are yet to impress me. Ireland has been shocking in a few games, but I just have a feeling that on St Patricks weekend they will end Wales’ winning streak. It should be close though.

Ireland 1 – 12 at 18/10

England vs Scotland:

Of all this weekend’s games this is the one I fancy least. Everything points to a comfortable victory for England, but with rain predicted for Twickenham I won’t be surprised if it’s closer than expected. If Wales beat Ireland in the previous game Wales get a bonus 3 log points because of the grandslam so then England have nothing to play for.

No bet for me here

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
The following user(s) said Thank You: Brent Graham, kt6747, Brad Breath, Eduard, threepeat

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Powered by Kunena Forum