Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

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2 months 4 days ago #51 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
1st try Mckenzie 17/1
Chiefs over 21.5 @ 10/11

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2 months 4 days ago #52 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
"Hanrick wrote"

SupeRugby

Chiefs vs Hurricanes

Positive move by the Chiefs to move DMac to 15, but why start his brother at 10. Marty not even Mitre10 Cup quality. I would have picked Debreczeni at 10. Chiefs has been way too passive on defence this year and thus allowing the attacking team too much time with ball in hand. I reckon the Canes dangerous backs will cut them to shreads.

Hurricanes -7 at even money for me.

3Peat Hurricanes -6.5 (5 of 5) for me. Will also look at Canes -20.5 @$4 for .05. FYI DBrecz is on the injured list and would have been picked ahead of MMac.

Brumbies vs Waratahs

Even though Pocock isn’t playing the Brumbies has shown me enough to take them to win at home. Aussie games normally tight so preference for 1 – 12 market. This looks like an unders game, even the right ref as well for unders in Glen Jackson.

Brumbies 1 – 12 at 1.95/1 and unders on total points at about 50.5

3Peat No Bet- Too hard, Tahs not yet firing but the far better team.


Stormers vs Jaguares

Jaguares have clearly targeted this game. Last week they played with a complete 2nd string team and next week they have a bye. So this is the game they think they can win on tour. Stormers should dominate them in the scrums though and I think the Stormers will do enough to win the game. Stormers not the kind of team that put other teams away and I think the Jaguares will be well up for this game and run them close. This also has all the makings for an unders game, except for the ref. Stormers have struggled to score tries and it’s a 19:00 kick-off.

Stormers 1 – 12 at 1.75/1 and unders on total points at about 47.5

3Peat. No Bet. Jag Pumas not seen for a while and too high a probability that they are in Cape Town.


Sunwolves vs Reds

I find it strange that Brad Thorn has decided to rest some of his frontline players for this game. I thought he would target this game as a sure win. Sunwolves has been impressive though and look very well coached. With the style the Sunwolves play there is bound to be points in this game, although the quote should be high and last I checked there was a chance of rain in Tokyo during the game.

Sunwolves -2 at 10/11

3Peat Sunwolves HT/ Sunwolves FT (2 out of 5) Joseph/ Brown, World Cup & Tokyo come into play.

Highlanders vs Crusaders

Crusaders have started fast so far in all their games and have covered the first half handicap in 3 of the 4 games. Only exception was in Brisbane where Kerevi scored just before halftime. Highlanders on the other hand have started slowly and have trailed in all their games except the game against the Reds. On that evidence the halftime minus on the Crusaders look good.

Crusaders -4 halftime handicap at even money.

3Peat. Crusaders -3.5 HT. Crusaders FT -7.5 and Crusaders HT/FT. (all together 5 out of 5).
Its going to be a tough day at the office for Ben Smith.

Lions vs Rebels

Reading the sentiment on the forum and watching the line movement I’m against the grain a bit here. The Rebels have a very good coach and they have played very well so far. This is not the Rebels of previous seasons. They look like they are going to win the Aussie conference. The Lions looked good on attack last week, but it was against a 2nd string Jaguares side who were never really interested in the game. The Rebels will win this game so the plus looks VERY generous. Rebels on the plus is my best bet of the weekend and I will also back the Rebels to win the game.

This game has overs written all over it! If you look at the factors that influence overs and unders, it’s as if the stars have aligned for overs here. It’s a 15:00 game at altitude, with Egon Seconds the ref and both teams play a nice attacking style of rugby. Because I’m so confident that the Rebels will win, I will rather take overs on Rebels points than on total points. I think that total points will be around 55.5 and with a handicap of 8.5, I think we should get a quote of about 23.5 or 24.5 on Rebels points. I’ll be all over the Rebels overs here.

Rebels +8.5 at 9/10 and overs on Rebels points at about 24.5

3Peat. Rebels +8.5. Dave Wessels has recruited well. Genia/ Cooper on fire! Koroibete on the bench. Rebels need a win on African soil. Consider good $ on head to head Rebels.


Six Nations

I have two long term bets pending on the six nations. England to score the most points of all teams at 2.75/1 and under 690.5 total points at 7/10. So far there has been 529 points so I have 161 points in the bag, working out to about 53 points per game.

Italy vs France

Although England destroyed Italy last week, Italy has impressed me in patches this year. At home they are normally very good and you can’t really make a case for the French at the moment, especially on the road. I give Italy a chance to win the game so the plus on Italy is the best of the 3 six nations games for me.

Italy +10 (tie in play) at 10/11
3Peat No Bet (who cares).


Wales vs Ireland

Game of the weekend. I’m not very strong on this game, but although Wales are undefeated, they are yet to impress me. Ireland has been shocking in a few games, but I just have a feeling that on St Patricks weekend they will end Wales’ winning streak. It should be close though.

Ireland 1 – 12 at 18/10

3Peat. Ireland +3.5 @ $1.67. Absolutely best game of the weekend and too hard to call but having a 2 out of 5 go. Plus if Ireland win then minnow bets Sexton MOM @ 15-1 kicks in and exotic Rory Best MOM @ 53-1! Thanks to Southpaw last week for that gem.

For me Schmidt trumps Gatland, Sexton trumps Anscombe (could not get a Superugby contract at 10 downunder). Also Ireland took players off after 60 minutes v France and shut down the game = fresher than Wales. Downside, Welsh defence was exceptional v England and they have homefield in song, plus Grandslam.

England vs Scotland:

Of all this weekend’s games this is the one I fancy least. Everything points to a comfortable victory for England, but with rain predicted for Twickenham I won’t be surprised if it’s closer than expected. If Wales beat Ireland in the previous game Wales get a bonus 3 log points because of the grandslam so then England have nothing to play for.

No bet for me here

3Peat. Have been on England every game and have a 5 of 5 on England at -11.5 placed on the line after Welsh loss. Same bet available in alternate points section with less payout.

Contrary to Henrick, England have everything to play for, revenge for 2018, getting the Calcutta Cup back, World Cup momentum, proof they deserve to win Six Nations!
Back three missing for Scotland. England / Farrell to put new back three to the sword with pinpoint kicks = speculative $ on England -21 (1 of 5 ).

Cheers and Good Luck to everyone. Best Bet from Downunder - Canes -6.5
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2 months 4 days ago #53 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Have added Hurricanes over 29.5 points at 10/11.

Under 49.5 total points at 9/10 along with Brumbies by 1-12 in 2nd game

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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2 months 4 days ago #54 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Canes -6 for me

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2 months 4 days ago #55 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
HT Play - Canes to win at 11/10

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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2 months 4 days ago #56 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
No word of a lie Hurricanes are the most OVER RATED team in Super Rugby. Bang average side and not even on the same planet as the Saders. Pathetic performance and so many mistakes

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2 months 4 days ago #57 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

southpaw wrote: I see the England cap is out to 18.5. I think there will be better value in a market like England 1st half cap -8. If Wales win and Eng need the bonus point they will start fast.

Ireland win, then England just need a win of any kind. 18.5 would look too high.

Wales bonus point win = England Scotland points markets overs for me.


If Wales win it means grand slam and therefore 3 points extra added so England could not win the tournament in that scenario

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2 months 4 days ago #58 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Thanks Bradie! Had no idea about that, in that case Wales win and i will be flying into England points.

Good start to weekend with Chiefs overs landing, skipping aus derby and looking for something to fire at Stormers game later, probably overs on points at best line.

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2 months 4 days ago #59 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Fainga’a is a try scoring machine for the Brumbies and a money making machine for me :D

23/10, 7/1, and 20/1 cashed so far...

One more try for the 100/1 hatrick

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2 months 4 days ago #60 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

Northerner wrote: Fainga’a is a try scoring machine for the Brumbies and a money making machine for me :D

23/10, 7/1, and 20/1 cashed so far...

One more try for the 100/1 hatrick


Great call. He’s an ATM, keeps paying out. Would be unreal if he goes on to be top try scorer in season.

Twitter @southpawZA
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2 months 3 days ago #61 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Main bet under 50.5 total points at 9/10 in Stormers vs Jaguares game. Also Stormers by 1 - 12 at 17/10 and Stormers under 3.5 tries at even money.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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2 months 3 days ago #62 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Can't have the evenings selected watch pass without a bet or two
Stormers v Jags
Jags over 20.5 @ 17/20
and life would not be the same without a few beers on something longer
Any draw @ 14/1

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2 months 3 days ago #63 by Ruan Fourie
Replied by Ruan Fourie on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
I'm joining in the under 50.5 points in the Stormers game.

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2 months 3 days ago #64 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Over 49.5 total pts

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2 months 3 days ago #65 by Ruan Fourie
Replied by Ruan Fourie on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

southpaw wrote: Over 49.5 total pts


5 minutes in and it's one really fast paced game. Won't be surprised if you take it.

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2 months 3 days ago #66 by Thrasher6
Replied by Thrasher6 on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Also 49.5 points but a horrible feeing will get done by the referee

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2 months 3 days ago #67 by Thrasher6
Replied by Thrasher6 on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Yep...will be done by the referee

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2 months 3 days ago #68 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

Thrasher6 wrote: Yep...will be done by the referee


Nothing to do with the ref. Peyper actually a very nice overs ref, but you can't go overs with a 19:00 game at the coast. 19:00 at the coast screams unders. Especially with the Stormers good defence. And Stormers have struggled to score tries so far.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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2 months 3 days ago #69 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

hanrick wrote:

Thrasher6 wrote: Yep...will be done by the referee


Nothing to do with the ref. Peyper actually a very nice overs ref, but you can't go overs with a 19:00 game at the coast. 19:00 at the coast screams unders. Especially with the Stormers good defence. And Stormers have struggled to score tries so far.


It might scream unders but to be fair 38pts after 60min, its obvious it could have gone either way on under/overs. Plenty big try scoring opportunities left on the park. But we go again tomorrow, back square for weekend.

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2 months 3 days ago #70 by sunnyskies
Replied by sunnyskies on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Everyone please note that the Higlanders v Crusaders game has just been cancelled due to the Terrorism event in Christchurch yesterday as per the following:

twitter.com/crusadersrugby

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2 months 3 days ago #71 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Main bet of the weekend - Rebels over 24.5 points at Sunbet

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
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2 months 3 days ago #72 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

Brent Graham wrote: Main bet of the weekend - Rebels over 24.5 points at Sunbet


Max bet and some

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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2 months 3 days ago #73 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
"hanrick" post" Brent Graham" Main bet of the weekend - Rebels over 24.5 points at Sunbet

Max bet and some

Refund of 5 out of 5 bet on three crusader outcomes now all placed on Rebels over 24.5 points, following team Graham / Hanrick.

GO RORY BEST - Have an absolute blinder.

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2 months 3 days ago - 2 months 3 days ago #74 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Absolutely superb piece of writing here by Donnacha O'Callaghan (ex Irish lock) on the Welsh, well worth a read if you have 5 mins:
www.thetimes.co.uk/article/donncha-o-cal...-in-surrey-8bgr65hw3

My main bets (placed before reading above article, lol)

Wales win by 1 - 12 @ 2.40

England -15

Wales win, into England -15 @ 3.50

Also smaller play on Italy +12

Good punting gentlemen!

Edit - will likely hinge on Wales win, but took Josh Adams Player of the Tournament @ 15

also

Josh Adams MOM today @ 51. (Conditions unlikely to suit wingers but he is such a talent and get himself involved, so worth a nibble at long odds)
Last edit: 2 months 3 days ago by Brad Breath. Reason: Error and added a bet

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2 months 2 days ago #75 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Italy +10.5 @ 15/20
1st try Parrise 22/1
Man of Match Parrise 17/2
Italy over 9.5 1st half pts @ evens

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2 months 2 days ago #76 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Wales v Ireland, Man of March wyn Jones @ 9/1

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2 months 2 days ago #77 by stokes1982
Replied by stokes1982 on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Small bet on Lions win @ 5/1

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2 months 2 days ago #78 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
1st score Eng try 2/1 sunset

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2 months 2 days ago - 2 months 2 days ago #79 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Man of match b vunipola 10/1
1st try George 15/1

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Last edit: 2 months 2 days ago by southpaw.

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2 months 2 days ago #80 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Great call Lions win there Stokes, what was the score when you posted? I imagine at 33-5 they must have been well into double figures?

Some amazing rugby today, never got to watch much, only the Rebels 1st half which saw overs land after 23 min

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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2 months 2 days ago #81 by stokes1982
Replied by stokes1982 on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5

Brent Graham wrote: Great call Lions win there Stokes, what was the score when you posted? I imagine at 33-5 they must have been well into double figures?

Some amazing rugby today, never got to watch much, only the Rebels 1st half which saw overs land after 23 min


Cheers Brent. It was 26 - 5 at the time. I also had a go at Lions +22 at 33 - 5 as I could see Rebels dropping off and soaking up pressure due to their lead and fatigue. The yellow card definitely
played as big part in the win though. Great call on Rebels overs, always nice when it comes in at a canter.

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2 months 2 days ago #82 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Yes, Thanks Brent and Hanrick.
I’d been on the Lions by 1-12 all week, but when I saw your posts about the Rebels overs, I did the same as Threepeat and threw into it what had been voided.
But I also took a bunch of Lions 1-10, and I saw the last score of the game – home side penalty, and I took a speculative on it. What a pleasure when that penalty sailed over in extra time and the whole shooting match came home. I couldn’t even stop smiling when my Ireland took a thrashing – Well done the Welsh.
Thanks again guys, I think a lot of us take your tips quite seriously. Take care, Magic-Mike.
Question for Brent: why aren’t you on the Good for the Game Superbru ?

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2 months 2 days ago #83 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
PS Brent: Well done on your Sunwolves handicap call last week - you were spot-on.
Cheers.

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2 months 2 days ago #84 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Northampton -5.5 @ 0.87/1 with Sunbet.

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2 months 2 days ago #85 by Thrasher6
Replied by Thrasher6 on topic Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations week 5
Can see where you are coming from with Northampton with home advantage but these young (most academy) Saracens players have impressed me....there looks terrific team spirit as well. I'm going for them at +6. I think it will be a closely fought contest...

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