Super Rugby Week 8 + other rugby

Thanks Brent, Dave and everyone in the chat!

My bets are made:

Early calls for me:

Blues -4.5.
Blues have found a lot of form recently against a struggling Tahs team on the road.

Lions -6.5
Sharks almost certainly without Akker. They are struggling in the 2 department with Burden, Akker and Chiliboy all out. Marx should have a field day mixed in with Lions with a rest at altitude.

Reds +5.5
It's impossible to have any confidence for the Stormers on the road. Reds are probably the worst side in the competition but I still fancy them to beat this cap. Stormers to limp to a narrow 3 point win here.

Multiple:

Lions X Bulls X Blues.

And Peter Steff must be on a plane home - his wife's about to pop a baby ? Any confirmation on this ?

Concern for me re Blues is their finishers out wide. Reiko has to be rested I believe, and the lad who got red will be out. They do have able replacements coming back to fitness, but Reiko alone must be worth 3pts.

Brent Graham wrote: WSB also up, they go -2.5 Highlanders and and -6.5 Blues

NZ TAB & European books have Canes as 3 point favourites

And some clarity on ABs rest requirements, it's 6 games on the trot before they are required to rest:

i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/11...s-selection#comments

Kirky wrote: And Peter Steff must be on a plane home - his wife's about to pop a baby ? Any confirmation on this ?

Etzebeth and PSD on their way home apparently, Wilco Louw also in doubt

www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/SuperRugby/etzeb...ir-way-home-20190401

I'm not sure the Kings should be underdogs for Sunday

Toulon @1.72 vs Toulouse on Betfair
Yes Toulouse is on fire and unbeaten for 14 games in top 14, won in Racing yesterday (what a game) playing 14 during 55 minutes but that game away should not be a priority at all – they are on top of the top14, 7 points ahead of Clermont and 20 of Lyon, will play Clermont home the following week end before the semi final in Dublin vs Leinster, so they don t need many points to secure a semi final in the top14. They have some issue with hooker as they lost 2 during the 6 Nations tournament, they will probably rest some international French players as they have to and some other key players I reckon.
If this on does not go through, I will stop here for the season as too many surprises in all championship and wondering if this is not due to the world cup approaching
Have a great week all

southpaw wrote: Concern for me re Blues is their finishers out wide. Reiko has to be rested I believe, and the lad who got red will be out. They do have able replacements coming back to fitness, but Reiko alone must be worth 3pts.

According to NZ media Reiko is playing. Blues have bye the week after, so helped with negotiations. Other wing banned, so Mcdonald got permission from NZ rugby. Sonny Bill out of game.

mackem wrote: Reds v Stormers preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/re...betting-preview.html

Going Reds win at 11/10 GG Gaming for 2.5 of 5 units

If Josh Stander starts, the Stormers will definitely win. Most underrated fly half in South Africa.

"All Black Protocols" - Source NZ Herald

"The Blues' bye in round four adds an extra layer of confusion as the byes apparently re-set the All Blacks' games back to zero. The All Blacks must have two games off this Super Rugby season, not counting the two byes.

It seems strange then that prop Karl Tu'inukuafe has been forced to sit out this week as part of the rest protocol.

Tu'inukuafe, who was apparently eager to continue, has played six games at an average of 39 minutes each. The front rower has started only two matches. Ioane has started all six and has played an average of 71 minutes each game.

Mike Anthony, NZ Rugby's high performance manager, has attempted to explain the protocols to the media recently, but such is the secrecy around team selections that the whole thing has become, in the words of Winston Churchill, a "RIDDLE WRAPPED IN A MYSTERY INSIDE AN ENIGMA"

Anyhow Reiko Ioane lining up against the Tahs. No Sonny Bill due to injury.

Early small bets on Blues to win and Blues -5.5 AB's & Blues very rarely lose to foreigners at Eden Park.

Will double down when Tahs team announced. Wallabies have "A gentlemans agreement in Australia" with Super Rugby coaches. Not sure what that means lol, but they will need Folau on Eden Park to have a prayer.

Bulls team out, not much respect for the Jags.

15 Divan Rossouw, 14 Johnny Kotze, 13 Dylan Sage, 12 Burger Odendaal, 11 Jade Stighling, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Duane Vermeulen (captain), 7 Jannes Kirsten, 6 Ruan Steenkamp, 5 Eli Snyman, 4 Hanro Liebenberg 3 Trevor Nyakane, 2 Corniel Els, 1 Lizo Gqoboka

Substitutes: 16 Jaco Visagie, 17 Simphiwe Matanzima, 18 Conraad van Vuuren, 19 Thembelani Bholi, 20 Tim Agaba, 21 Ivan van Zyl, 22 JT Jackson, 23 Cornal Hendricks

The forum is so quiet that I thought I’d offer something to a discussion ?
I’ve had a few nasty blood-noses over the last two weeks with all of the upsets, and have concluded that they must be due to the WC anticipation. Never mind the coaches agreements, the players themselves must be conflicted by the balance of winning, peaking, and getting hurt before the tournament.
Way I’m seeing it now is that I’d probably give up any chance of winning SR for a shot at the WC if I were an AB contender (or any national team for that matter). I think BB’s (and Folau’s) performance till now is testimony of this, but, you also have to do enough to remain a contender – they can’t just disengage completely and rely on convincing the coach in the final few weeks, surely.
So, as some of them have to step-up now, and because SR continues and I want to place some bets, my thoughts are:
Hurricanes – BB, TJ, Ben Lam and co. must produce something special this week – NZ is baying for Mo’unga in 10 so BB must make a plan and he is the brains in the outfit, also one Smith missing from Highlanders = Slam dunk for Canes.
Brad Thorn took a beating last week, and he’s not gonna let it happen again, specially at home to an SA side. Also, the poor fuddled Fleckie, without PSDT and Etsebeth (40% of his team ?), what chance can he possibly have = Reds at a canter.
Blues clicking onto a roll with the brothers Ioane and others showing credentials, against the Tahs without Hooper (the best player in Ozz ?). I’m seeing another slam dunk here, for the Blues.
Can’t see the Lions getting up a sweat against the Du Preez family with no Acorn at altitude = to me another gimme (to go with Crusaders) Lions by 2 tries +.
Rebels are such a good team this year, but so too are the Wolves = Caution to me. Possible upset. Sunwolves on the plus and beer money on an upset.
Bulls vs Jaguares ? I favour Bulls (altitude factor) for Superbru, but think it can go either way depending on who arrives at Loftus. When the Bulls are rubbish they really do it properly. No bet for me.
If I’ve got this lot wrong (again), and find myself sobbing into my whisky on Saturday night instead of (gleefully) counting my loot - then I’m getting up as high as I can onto the fence for the remainder of the season.
Got a feeling that I’ll find a few of our forum guys up there if I do.
Good luck everyone, bet wisely.

This is the Crusaders' first home game they will play since the tragedy there, as the Highlanders game was called off. The Waratahs game was a fluke, they are really subpar, and they were fortunate to catch the Crusaders after a very emotional week where their focus was all over the place. My feeling is that they are going to have a HUGE game in front of their home fans. The Brumbies have also conceded more points in the second half in their last few games, couple that with watching the Canes held to nil points by the Crusaders in their second half last week. I am going with:

Crusaders 2nd half cap -11.5

The lions have a 6-2 split in their reserves for Friday night, as opposed to the sharks 5-3. So I think the Sharks forwards will be feeling it more in the second half. So also like:

Lions 2nd half cap -2,5

I'm eyeing out some nice plays this weekend. Some cracking value on offer.

Canes outright @0.9
Landers are missing A Smith which is a massive loss for them. Canes look to bounce back after last weekend's hiding and have named a full strength side.

Reds +5.5
Managed to get on early value in this case. No confidence for Storm on the road and lacking experience of Etzebeth and PSDT.

Lions -6.5
Tentative call but Lions back playing at altitude against a Sharks side missing Akker. I reckon Lions should cover the cap.

Brumbies +25.5
No matter how bad the Brumbies are on the road, this cap is far too big. NZ teams (Saders included) are overrated by the bookies. Brummies have some good players in their ranks and will be determined to keep this tight.

Blues -4.5
Another early value play here. Blues to continue that winning momentum against an unpredictable Tahs team.

Rebels-Wolves:
No play at the moment. If the points line is anywhere around the 65 mark, will look for an under play. Night game and Rebels pride themselves on defence.

Bulls -6.5
Jags are horrible on the road. Although the Bulls have rested some key players, the replacements are more than adequate and they still have some old heads in the mix.

Best bet of the weekend: Reds +5.5
Value bet of the weekend: Canes under 12.5 @1.7

Certain teams just shouldnt be trusted with our punting money, unless maybe its during in running play, it's doesn't matter how weak you think the opposition is. These teams include especially the Tahs and Reds. These 2 will knock on n butcher tries time after time... I'd stay away from Reds Stormers game

Canes 1-12 for me

And under 50.5 points in Reds match

Been traveling so no rugby action for me so far but going tonight -

Main bet either side win by 7 or less Incl draw @ 15/10

1st try Marx 12, van vurren 28/1

Gone over on the points in the Lions v Sharks...44.5....looked appealing and then you realise that these two....cannot score...absolutely hapless

Brent Graham wrote: Going to try and bet myself out of a hole here - Sharks over 18.5 for the maximum

Superb brent and as a diehard sharks fan, I ask why the hell haven’t they played like this all season?!

Head To HeadSuper Rugby: Highlanders v HurricanesRugby UnionFri, 05 Apr 2019, 7:35pm
Hurricanes @ 1.59 Winner
Match ResultSuper Rugby: Reds v StormersRugby UnionFri, 05 Apr 2019, 10:00pm
Reds @ 1.91 Winner
Head To HeadSuper Rugby: Lions v SharksRugby UnionSat, 06 Apr 2019, 6:10am
Sharks @ 2.92
Match ResultSuper Rugby: Blues v WaratahsRugby UnionSat, 06 Apr 2019, 7:35pm
Blues @ 1.34
Combined Odds 11.88

"Sweet As" Look forward to the Shark bite at @2.92 in my multis. Sharks cannot lose from here in the rain. No Captain Hooper in Tahs so Blues will win with ease. Will take some alternate points starts from -10 up

The Lions not scoring a point is a joke...really...really...its enough for me to take an out.....disgraceful. Enjoyed being part of the forum but that result says.... ok one thing...you can't beat the book.

*Casually taking my Sharks to win the SA conference betslip out of the trash

Hanrick wrote Casually taking my Sharks to win the SA conference betslip out of the trash.

Casually putting my x max bet on Blues to win over 6.5 wins in regular season back on top of the pile. Thank you Leon McDonald - love the way you manage to play the Ioane brothers for 80 minutes week in week out for eight rounds without rotation. Made easier by the fact the best #8 in the country, Akira did not even get selected for the AB "C" Team that played Japan last year! Don't get me wrong. We need Captain Reed in Tokyo, but he is showing a lot of wear and tear, please give him more rest and play Akira in Round One RWC v the mighty Boks.

Entering the bloody fray at half time with Saders down 0-7 to Brumbies.

Bet Saders -4,5 @ 1.80 FT 4 out of 5

threepeat wrote: Entering the bloody fray at half time with Saders down 0-7 to Brumbies.

Bet Saders -4,5 @ 1.80 FT 4 out of 5

Similar, I've taken -7.5 at 1.91

You've got much better value than me, which book is that with Threepeat?

hanrick wrote: *Casually taking my Sharks to win the SA conference betslip out of the trash

LOL

Taking the Blues to win and over 53.5 points, and also Blues 1-12.

Gone Blues by 11-20 @ 4s

Smaller play on over 53.5

Tahs over 11.5 1st half pts 9/10

southpaw wrote: Tahs over 11.5 1st half pts 9/10

Placed this bet then 5 min later realised I had already taken Blues/blues ht/ft @ 9/10 with Sunbet but had forgotten, I blame the beer.

Now shouting for 2 bets that count against each other. Not too smart.

Solid strike on Sunwolves under 23.5 points at 0.98/1