Week 10 Super Rugby and other Rugby

Hi lads ,

Just got a few moments and wanted to put down my caps before I saw anyone else's.

Chiefs minus 15.5 vs Lions
Sharks minus 5.5 vs Reds
Wolves plus 26.5 vs Canes
Highlanders minus 5.5 vs Blue
Waratahs minus 5.5 vs Rebels
Stormer minus 11.5 vs Brumbies

Cheers

I will be all over the Chiefs-14.5

Chiefs opened -10 in UK, which I was about to pull the trigger on.
But they're on the drift and the line now down to -7

Clearly the loss of DMac is significant, but that can't be solely responsible for the drift, presumably they priced up on the basis he was out?

Am I missing something else?

Dmac injury + Smith and Whiteley back for the Lions I believe. To be fair I will stay away from that game, remember how people follow trend sometimes, Chiefs were supposed to lose by double digits against the Bulls 3-4 weeks back, both team are mixing ups and downs and must win for both. I ll skip that one.

CLrugby wrote: Dmac injury + Smith and Whiteley back for the Lions I believe. To be fair I will stay away from that game, remember how people follow trend sometimes, Chiefs were supposed to lose by double digits against the Bulls 3-4 weeks back, both team are mixing ups and downs and must win for both. I ll skip that one.

Chiefs have turned the corner somewhat, their form line in last 4 games is DWWW

Although just read Retallick & Harris carrying knocks too so perhaps in doubt.

I will also stay away for now.

I've taken some Brumbies +8.5 though, Pocock will apparently be back and Tom Wright is giving them a bit more creativity in their backline.

Agree on the Brumbies pick, here again Stormers in one week change from a +12 against Rebels to a - 8 against Brumbies. They have a solid pack and a good backline as well, they are clearly not at the ranking they deserve. Didn’t check injuries or rotations on that one but they can definitely get a win there. This week I am not shooting anything before the lineup are released anyway.

CLrugby wrote: Agree on the Brumbies pick, here again Stormers in one week change from a +12 against Rebels to a - 8 against Brumbies. They have a solid pack and a good backline as well, they are clearly not at the ranking they deserve. Didn’t check injuries or rotations on that one but they can definitely get a win there. This week I am not shooting anything before the lineup are released anyway.

Also travel won't favor either side as they both travel to SA this week.

Brent Graham wrote: Guys just a heads up, due to the long weekend we are going to do THE HANDICAP on Wednesday night at 21h00

No! It clashes with the Liverpool game. Guess can afford to miss the game, as this is much more important:lol:

Whitely back - Jantjies and Marx on bench

Lions

15 Sylvian Mahuza, 14 Courtnall Skosan, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Franco Naude, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Gianni Lombard, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Cyle Brink, 6 Kwagga Smith, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Stephan Lewies, 3 Carlu Sadie, 2 Robbie Coetzee, 1 Sti Sithole

Substitutes: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Frans Van Wyk, 18 Johannes Jonker, 19 Wilhelm van der Sluys, 20 Marnus Schoeman, 21 Nic Groom, 22 Elton Jantjies, 23 Andries Coetzee

Cettas wrote: Whitely back - Jantjies and Marx on bench

Lions

15 Sylvian Mahuza, 14 Courtnall Skosan, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Franco Naude, 11 Aphiwe Dyantyi, 10 Gianni Lombard, 9 Ross Cronje, 8 Warren Whiteley (captain), 7 Cyle Brink, 6 Kwagga Smith, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Stephan Lewies, 3 Carlu Sadie, 2 Robbie Coetzee, 1 Sti Sithole

Substitutes: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Frans Van Wyk, 18 Johannes Jonker, 19 Wilhelm van der Sluys, 20 Marnus Schoeman, 21 Nic Groom, 22 Elton Jantjies, 23 Andries Coetzee

Still not convinced on the Chiefs H, I can see everyone jumped on it but being on the bench doesn't mean being rested. If they bring them back in at the 50' it is a massive bench to do some damages as well if the Lions are still on the game. There are also some potential injuries on the Chiefs side so I would rather wait for their lineup and I even don't believe I will put a single coin on that match.

Yuck Chiefs team.

Chiefs: Jack Debreczeni, Sean Wainui, Alex Nankivell, Anton Lienert-Brown, Ataata Moeakiola, Marty McKenzie, Brad Weber (captain), Taleni Seu, Lachlan Boshier, Luke Jacobson, Mitchell Brown, Tyler Ardron, Nepo Laulala, Liam Polwart, Angus Ta'avao. Reserves: Samisoni Taukei'aho, Atu Moli, Sosefo Kautai, Jesse Parete, Pita Gus Sowakula, Jonathan Taumateine, Tumua Manu, Shaun Stevenson.

On chiefs lions team news I like -

Either side win by 7 or less incl draw @ just over 16/10 Sunbet.

Then a value bet - HT/FT Chiefs/lions 9/1 also Sunbet.

Hurricanes squad to face the Sunwolves: Source NZ Herald

15 Chase Tiatia
14 Wes Goosen
13 Matt Proctor
12 Ngani Laumape
11 Ben Lam
10 Fletcher Smith
9 TJ Perenara (c)
8 Reed Prinsep
7 Du'Plessis Kirifi
6 Vaea Fifita
5 Liam Mitchell
4 James Blackwell
3 Ben May
2 Ricky Riccitelli
1 Fraser Armstrong

Reserves:

16 Asafo Aumua
17 Xavier Numia
18 Jeff To'omaga-Allen
19 Isaia Walker-Leawere
20 Sam Henwood
21 Richard Judd
22 James Marshall
23 Billy Proctor

Notably no Barrett Bros & no Ardie Savea.

Skosan is out for the Lions, he is going back to SA. Chiefs missing Harris, Retallick, Dmac, Alaimalo and TTT ... looks more and more like a coin flip to me. Definitely a skip.

Brumbies team out and no Pocock. Have added some -7.5 9/10. Its sure to move soon.

I think there is a lot of value in rugby this weekend.

Chiefs -5.5 @evens
Even with Brodie and DMac missing, NZ rugby boasts the best depth. Chiefs in great form and a home game to boot. Lions start with Marx on bench.

Storm -6.5
No Pocock for Brumbies. Storm are different beasts at Newlands. Playoff hopes rest on their home games and they are in with a real sniff. A fresh PSDT returning is a huge boost.

Tahs to beat Rebels.
Tahs at home can't be overlooked. Rebels stuttering.

Wolves +19.5
Very improved Wolves playing in Japan.

Value of the round:
Tahs 1-12 @3.

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: I think there is a lot of value in rugby this weekend.

Chiefs -5.5 @evens
Even with Brodie and DMac missing, NZ rugby boasts the best depth. Chiefs in great form and a home game to boot. Lions start with Marx on bench.

Storm -6.5
No Pocock for Brumbies. Storm are different beasts at Newlands. Playoff hopes rest on their home games and they are in with a real sniff. A fresh PSDT returning is a huge boost.

Tahs to beat Rebels.
Tahs at home can't be overlooked. Rebels stuttering.

Wolves +19.5
Very improved Wolves playing in Japan.

Value of the round:
Tahs 1-12 @3.

Which bookie has these prices? Looks mostly like Monday’s prices.

BetXChange has the prices and they have a promotion this weekend where the handicaps are at evens.

Am I the only one to think that Waratahs @2 is a value here? Except Folau they have a pretty experienced and balanced team and I still believe that Rebels are overrated here.

I agree with you CL. But then again, might be safer to cut the grass and wait for the Stormers game.

Hi Guys
Just thinking or hoping that the Lions bench might make a huge difference in the second half.
So i will take 2 bets... Not sure of odds yet.
Game double.. Chiefs/lions
What ever the lions cap is at the 50th minute.... Ill jump on that to

I’m on the Chiefs today, they managed the game well without McKenzie. The forwards are solid enough but Lienert-Brown is a cut above and runs a good backline. I don’t think it will be a run away and points lines are a bit high for me.

Chiefs -7.5
Total points u 55.5
Lions points u 24.5
Anton Lienert-Brown Anytime 22//10

NZ GAMES WEEK 10

Highlanders v Blues tomorrow Saturday appears to be the best punt downunder.

GFTG have gone Highlanders -2.5
Couch & Hanrick have both gone Blues 1-12.

The esteemed panel is off target on this game in my opinion.

Highlanders were shocking against Saders last week, whereas Blues should have won in the Tron. Blues have attacking threats all over the park (similar to Saders) and there is too much risk for me in keeping to the 1-12, Forsyth Barr Stadium lends itself to a high scoring Blues team. No home field advantage here, Threepeat bet is Blues -6.5 at $3.30 TAB NZ

Going 3 out of 5 and plan to add two more units live on Blues win if Landers get an early lead.

Early game I see Chiefs hard to beat at home, even without DMac & Retallick. With respect to Lions bench taking a nibble at Chiefs half time -3.5.

Will add live bet on Chiefs win if Lions get first score.

Adding a small double Blues -6.5 with Chiefs -3.5 HT

Cheers & Good Luck to everyone.

My early thoughts were all the Chiefs , then the changes occurred and the cap came down as a result . For Rotalliik is possibly their biggest loss for this game than DM, Whitely could also produce a better performance from the Lions whilst the internal struggles revealed over night could play a part either way

So for now sticking with the Chiefs at minus 5.5 at 8/10.

The Wolves game throws us the same set of problems , the canes loose their core while the hosts make a number of changes once again. It's played in Tokyo and is an evening game for the first time .

Probably look at something in running , but the least minus is where I'm looking at for now .

Lastly the Sharks host the Reds , initial thoughts were the Reds plus , however one does worry about the Sharks potential bounce back. The Reds are not a great team to rely on but they still get a narrow vote on the plus .

Chiefs-12.5 at 2.11/1

Lions news just in, Swys de Bruin has left for SA already. Personal reasons cited. Taking some more Chiefs!

Pierrebal wrote: Lions news just in, Swys de Bruin has left for SA already. Personal reasons cited. Taking some more Chiefs!

And Marx and Jantjies now starting.

Took some Chiefs win @ 1.6 earlier in the week, was going to add the minus cap but will hold off for now

I've done a 180 on this game. Now in the Lions camp. Lions over 23.5 points for me at 15/20

hanrick wrote: I've done a 180 on this game. Now in the Lions camp. Lions over 23.5 points for me at 15/20

Have added Lions +7.5 at even money

Pierrebal wrote " And Marx and Jantjies now starting".

Last minute changes have thrown a nasty curve ball to my HT bet,

Nine minutes in Lions about to get three points

threepeat wrote: Pierrebal wrote " And Marx and Jantjies now starting".

Last minute changes have thrown a nasty curve ball to my HT bet,

Nine minutes in Lions about to get three points

Jip... So the bench started the game. Will take a cover now and take chiefs ons the cap on 50min mark

Still can't believe my Lions over 23.5 lost.

Sunwolves under 23.5 points at 10/11. Bit of a strike.

hurricanes -19.5 (19/10)

Nice start to punting day, and found great value in next -

Ben Lam anytime try 15/20 Sunbet.

This is a very nice price, my main bet on game.

kompos wrote: hurricanes -19.5 (19/10)

On the same, but bigger bet on -13

hanrick wrote: Still can't believe my Lions over 23.5 lost.

Sunwolves under 23.5 points at 10/11. Bit of a strike.

Just as I couldn't believe the Lions over 23.5 didn't win, I can't believe the Sunwolves under 23.5 has won. So so many games of 2 halves in rugby.

South, well played on Ben Lam. Did the job for you and went off.

Like wise Hanrick, bigger bet was Canes minus and wolves under 23.5 , thankfully it somehow arrived , the latter. Once again like the chiefs the canes looked hopeless without their main players , wish I had given greater consideration to that .

Nevertheless, I'm down and will be looking to get out of it on the Sharks game , however it just doesn't look appealing and smaller bets are probably the wiser call.