Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby

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4 years 10 months ago #101 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Any idea where I could follow the live score for the Supersport Challenge please?

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4 years 10 months ago #102 by alike
Replied by alike on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Very little coverage of live scores. Your best bet is to go to the twitter page of the team you want to follow the live score there.

i.e. twitter.com/GriquasRugby

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4 years 10 months ago #103 by alike
Replied by alike on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby

bradie82 wrote: Any idea where I could follow the live score for the Supersport Challenge please?


Very little coverage of live scores. Your best bet is to go to the twitter page of the team you want to follow the live score there.

i.e. twitter.com/GriquasRugby

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4 years 10 months ago #104 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Not the results from the SS Challenge I was expecting, only landed the Bulls. Sharks and WP was close with FS and SWD not showing up at all.

My biggest bet, Bulls -6.5 scraped in, so am marginally up for the weekend. Onto Stormers now.

Stormers +5.5
Stormers over 19.5 points
and a small interest on the win for 18/10

Its been one of those weekends again where the plus has ruled, hopefully Stormers continue the trend.

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4 years 10 months ago #105 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Quite a good week end so far - S15 and European rugby been good while SSC has been catastrophic - shame over are not available
Anyway giving another go for the 2 games tonight

Jag v Stormers
Try before 15” @ 1.67 (Bwin)
Over 2.5 tries HT @ 1.75 (Unibet)
Over 5.5 tries @ 1.80 (Skybet)

Over 5.5 tries @ 2.10 - La Rochelle vs Toulon

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4 years 10 months ago #106 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Mostly a positive day so far, have a bit back on bulls points and blues 2nd half, but that big early week interest in bulls -6 made it a decent afternoon. But geez they made heavy weather of it!

Trying one more, possible rain later in game in Argentina -

Jaguarues over 12.5 1st half Pts @ 9/10

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4 years 10 months ago #107 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Under 46.5 match points at 17/20 in Jaguares vs Stormers game

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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4 years 10 months ago #108 by Brad Breath
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Jags -3

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4 years 10 months ago #109 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Decent weekend in the end but the Stormers are braindead at best.

They probably won 6 or 7 scrum penalties, out 7 meters from the line and can scrum against 7 and kick to touch and lose the throw. Fleck can’t go soon enough.

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4 years 10 months ago #110 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Lyon v Bordeaux
Forecast is good, strong Lyon team while Bordeaux has some players missing especially in front row

Lyon over 30.5 @ 1.80
Lyon over 3.5 tries @ 1.67
Over 47.5 @ 1.67
All on Skybet
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4 years 10 months ago #111 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
I think both wasps and Bath need to go for a bonus point win for best chance to make playoffs? That’s way I read it.

Over 49.5 @ just under 9/10 sunbet

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4 years 10 months ago #112 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
3 tries refused for Lyon in the last 7 min of the first half - quite gutted as at least one was good - Lyon is far above Bordeaux so going for Lyon race 30 @ 1.90

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4 years 10 months ago #113 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Very frustrating. Every time the put some phases together they look like scoring hopefully they can crack on now.

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4 years 10 months ago #114 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Bradie you genius. Not once in 79 minutes I doubted it ;)

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4 years 10 months ago #115 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Thank Pierre
The over game should have gone too but can t complain

Bath v Wasps
Both team to a score a try in each half @ 2.10 (William Hill)

Racing vs Stade Francais
Racing over 3.5 @ 1.67 (main bet)
Over 5.5 tries @ 1.67
Both on Skybet

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4 years 10 months ago #116 by Overs_Punter
Replied by Overs_Punter on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Name might seem quite ironic when one reads this - created this account a while ago & punting style has changed a lot since then

Feel that most on this forum just punt overs. Don’t get me wrong, everyone including myself loves a nice expansive & open game that brings plenty points but that’s just not the reality in modern day rugby with more emphasis being put on defensive , line speed etc

The reality is that unders pays more than overs, I’m just interested in everyone’s attitude to consistently go overs and never look at unders plays. Hated going under initially but it’s something that’s grown on me, obviously one needs to take a lot of factors into account (ref, altitude vs sea level, team styles, quote) but get the feeling that the general overs points lover just sees good conditions and blindly punts overs

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4 years 10 months ago #117 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
I think you will find alot of the forum love their unders (Hanrick and Coil for example) I don't mind an unders play but of late have played what I consider value overs plays - all have looked bloody good with 20 to play before going belly up

I agree with you though playing overs on every game will get you bankrupt - I think the RWC will be low scoring especially from the quarters

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4 years 10 months ago #118 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Good point Overs Punter. Long post alert but I'd like to add my comments on this.

I use to have the odd go on buying shirts - and I was always a buyer and never a seller. Think it comes from enjoying free scoring and as such we all WANT to see tries. However I know someone like Hanrick has gotten into loving those scrappy games which he has punted low on points.

I have certain teams and venues that I go unders or just stay away from the points - ie Sharks in Durbs. Or when I have info on conditions which I think bookies aren't quite clued up on. But I must say that at the end of it all I still find myself erring toward going high rather than low which I do need to work on as I feel bookies feast on us there as you say. (Somehow it just feels wrong looking at the clock and wishing time to fly by!).

The one thing I have starting doing is taking a points bet in-running. So after a fast start I like to go low and this has worked out reasonably well for me this season.

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4 years 10 months ago #119 by Overs_Punter
Replied by Overs_Punter on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Enjoying the feedback thus far - Brent I understand there are people on the forum that do go unders, but I’m sure you would agree that the majority tend to go high on points

My theory (could be wild incorrect) is that bookies tend to add an extra point or two to the true points line knowing that 80% + of punters tend to favour high rather than low. This has worked well for me generally getting higher quotes that I have seen as value

In saying that, I do still enjoy my overs plays, got burnt badly on over 50.5 this past weekend in the bulls game. All the factors were there -

Altitude, 3pm kick off, Peyper ref, Waratahs & Bulls tend to play a style that leads to a more free flowing game

The reality is that loftus isn’t the overs ground it was once was, bulls style very negative & defense stubborn (at times)

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4 years 10 months ago #120 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Enjoying the unders chat. Like Coil, I live unders. Obviously I bet overs aswell as can be seen on my posts on the forum, but my 1st instinct is always unders.

I'm 100% sure if you punt unders blindly on every game at the same stake you will show a profit in the longrun.

There are however guys on this forum who just can't punt unders and every points bet they post on here is a an overs play. With all due resprect, if you can't bring yourself to punting unders you have a long way to go as a punter.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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4 years 10 months ago #121 by shaft
Replied by shaft on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
With regards to handicaps I much prefer punting a big plus than a low minus.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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4 years 10 months ago #122 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Overs Punter I agree most punters go high - I actually sold shirts in every game of the 2011 RWC and one of the Super Rugby years as an experiment - made a killing but I still go overs more than unders - go figure!

Great feedback here guys

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4 years 10 months ago - 4 years 10 months ago #123 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
As a try/point punter, i m taking the liberty to reply.

Agree with your statement Overs, most of the people I know tend to bet on over rather than under but in my case, 2 reasons :

First there is a historical factor : looking at S15, Currie, Gallagher and Mitre, those competitions always used to tend to over points and tries and despite a change in the past few years, hard to remove that “feeling” from your mind.

Secondly, I simply cannot watch a game and push for a scrum, a forward pass, a blind TMO or anything else that would make my under go through - on top of it, you re never safe from a a yellow/red card, from a miss tackle or pass and a stupid act can blow your under in second. I prefer to get pissed off by a “ no try” than seeing scrums after scrums.

That said, most of my bets here are preflop - as Couch well stated, if a game goes crazy, I tend to go under - how many Racing home games ended up with a high scoring first half and few points only in the second half : many this season.

Finally I think despite betting mainly on over, I also brought diversity in my betting - I sed to jump on S15 handicap on monday morning looking for an opportunity but this season the S15 have seen upset after upset, week after week, and even with the starting line, anything can happen - I therefore moved to an exotic bet with the early try game and/or team and this has been quite successful so far.

But you are right, I select my games on monday, look at the ones that would potentially go over, never under, get a cut in my head and depending on the odd, forecast and starting line, I decide if this is a value bet or not, e.g. Toulon over 1.5 tries @ 1.62 last night against live after few minutes - Toulon has nothing to play this season and is going for the try 8 times ouf of ten. And despite bookie being better and better in rugby union while I consider they were not few years ago, I still believe there are massive opportunities in over e.g. Newcastle yesterday that desperately needed a bonus try win.
Last edit: 4 years 10 months ago by bradie82.

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4 years 10 months ago #124 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
Laughable comment that “If you don’t back unders you have a long way to go as a punter.” :silly: Do me a favour.

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4 years 10 months ago #125 by Overs_Punter
Replied by Overs_Punter on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
It’s a tough transition from overs to unders - must say it’s grown on me in a big way and cheering for re-sets, knock on’s and TMO reviews is a different kind of thrill - definitely the way to go for the pocket

Will start posting my points plays when the quotes come out, take a lot of factors into account (not just conditions and quote - like most) and only really have a bet when many of the different factors align

The reality is that one needs to be analyze a game objectively and make a call from there, not being able to go unders will definitely result in one being a loser in the long run

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4 years 10 months ago #126 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
I think you could get away with not going unders but you would just have to be very selective on your overs plays - I went on a great spread betting run a few years back - I was only buying but was disciplined and only bought when the stars aligned (conditions, ref etc) and only when I saw a bigger upside than downside

The key is keeping your discipline and I eventually started breaking my own rules

If you are a points player on every game you need to be able to play udners but if selective and disciplined then not an issue being an overs player

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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