Super Rugby Week 12 plus other Rugby
- bradie82
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- alike
i.e. twitter.com/GriquasRugby
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- alike
bradie82 wrote: Any idea where I could follow the live score for the Supersport Challenge please?
Very little coverage of live scores. Your best bet is to go to the twitter page of the team you want to follow the live score there.
i.e. twitter.com/GriquasRugby
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- Pierrebal
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My biggest bet, Bulls -6.5 scraped in, so am marginally up for the weekend. Onto Stormers now.
Stormers +5.5
Stormers over 19.5 points
and a small interest on the win for 18/10
Its been one of those weekends again where the plus has ruled, hopefully Stormers continue the trend.
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- bradie82
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Anyway giving another go for the 2 games tonight
Jag v Stormers
Try before 15” @ 1.67 (Bwin)
Over 2.5 tries HT @ 1.75 (Unibet)
Over 5.5 tries @ 1.80 (Skybet)
Over 5.5 tries @ 2.10 - La Rochelle vs Toulon
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- southpaw
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Trying one more, possible rain later in game in Argentina -
Jaguarues over 12.5 1st half Pts @ 9/10
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- hanrick
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- Brad Breath
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- Pierrebal
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They probably won 6 or 7 scrum penalties, out 7 meters from the line and can scrum against 7 and kick to touch and lose the throw. Fleck can’t go soon enough.
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- bradie82
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Forecast is good, strong Lyon team while Bordeaux has some players missing especially in front row
Lyon over 30.5 @ 1.80
Lyon over 3.5 tries @ 1.67
Over 47.5 @ 1.67
All on Skybet
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- southpaw
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Over 49.5 @ just under 9/10 sunbet
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- bradie82
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- Pierrebal
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- Pierrebal
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- bradie82
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The over game should have gone too but can t complain
Bath v Wasps
Both team to a score a try in each half @ 2.10 (William Hill)
Racing vs Stade Francais
Racing over 3.5 @ 1.67 (main bet)
Over 5.5 tries @ 1.67
Both on Skybet
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- Overs_Punter
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Feel that most on this forum just punt overs. Don’t get me wrong, everyone including myself loves a nice expansive & open game that brings plenty points but that’s just not the reality in modern day rugby with more emphasis being put on defensive , line speed etc
The reality is that unders pays more than overs, I’m just interested in everyone’s attitude to consistently go overs and never look at unders plays. Hated going under initially but it’s something that’s grown on me, obviously one needs to take a lot of factors into account (ref, altitude vs sea level, team styles, quote) but get the feeling that the general overs points lover just sees good conditions and blindly punts overs
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- Brent Graham
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I agree with you though playing overs on every game will get you bankrupt - I think the RWC will be low scoring especially from the quarters
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- Couch Critic
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I use to have the odd go on buying shirts - and I was always a buyer and never a seller. Think it comes from enjoying free scoring and as such we all WANT to see tries. However I know someone like Hanrick has gotten into loving those scrappy games which he has punted low on points.
I have certain teams and venues that I go unders or just stay away from the points - ie Sharks in Durbs. Or when I have info on conditions which I think bookies aren't quite clued up on. But I must say that at the end of it all I still find myself erring toward going high rather than low which I do need to work on as I feel bookies feast on us there as you say. (Somehow it just feels wrong looking at the clock and wishing time to fly by!).
The one thing I have starting doing is taking a points bet in-running. So after a fast start I like to go low and this has worked out reasonably well for me this season.
Twitter: @HDiemont
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- Overs_Punter
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My theory (could be wild incorrect) is that bookies tend to add an extra point or two to the true points line knowing that 80% + of punters tend to favour high rather than low. This has worked well for me generally getting higher quotes that I have seen as value
In saying that, I do still enjoy my overs plays, got burnt badly on over 50.5 this past weekend in the bulls game. All the factors were there -
Altitude, 3pm kick off, Peyper ref, Waratahs & Bulls tend to play a style that leads to a more free flowing game
The reality is that loftus isn’t the overs ground it was once was, bulls style very negative & defense stubborn (at times)
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- hanrick
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I'm 100% sure if you punt unders blindly on every game at the same stake you will show a profit in the longrun.
There are however guys on this forum who just can't punt unders and every points bet they post on here is a an overs play. With all due resprect, if you can't bring yourself to punting unders you have a long way to go as a punter.
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- shaft
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"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- Brent Graham
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Great feedback here guys
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- bradie82
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Agree with your statement Overs, most of the people I know tend to bet on over rather than under but in my case, 2 reasons :
First there is a historical factor : looking at S15, Currie, Gallagher and Mitre, those competitions always used to tend to over points and tries and despite a change in the past few years, hard to remove that “feeling” from your mind.
Secondly, I simply cannot watch a game and push for a scrum, a forward pass, a blind TMO or anything else that would make my under go through - on top of it, you re never safe from a a yellow/red card, from a miss tackle or pass and a stupid act can blow your under in second. I prefer to get pissed off by a “ no try” than seeing scrums after scrums.
That said, most of my bets here are preflop - as Couch well stated, if a game goes crazy, I tend to go under - how many Racing home games ended up with a high scoring first half and few points only in the second half : many this season.
Finally I think despite betting mainly on over, I also brought diversity in my betting - I sed to jump on S15 handicap on monday morning looking for an opportunity but this season the S15 have seen upset after upset, week after week, and even with the starting line, anything can happen - I therefore moved to an exotic bet with the early try game and/or team and this has been quite successful so far.
But you are right, I select my games on monday, look at the ones that would potentially go over, never under, get a cut in my head and depending on the odd, forecast and starting line, I decide if this is a value bet or not, e.g. Toulon over 1.5 tries @ 1.62 last night against live after few minutes - Toulon has nothing to play this season and is going for the try 8 times ouf of ten. And despite bookie being better and better in rugby union while I consider they were not few years ago, I still believe there are massive opportunities in over e.g. Newcastle yesterday that desperately needed a bonus try win.
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- southpaw
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- Overs_Punter
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Will start posting my points plays when the quotes come out, take a lot of factors into account (not just conditions and quote - like most) and only really have a bet when many of the different factors align
The reality is that one needs to be analyze a game objectively and make a call from there, not being able to go unders will definitely result in one being a loser in the long run
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- Brent Graham
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The key is keeping your discipline and I eventually started breaking my own rules
If you are a points player on every game you need to be able to play udners but if selective and disciplined then not an issue being an overs player
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