Super Rugby Week 13 plus other Rugby

After a successful weekend, I'm going to get the ball rolling with some handicap projections here:

Blues +3.5 vs Canes
Rebels -6.5 vs Reds
Bulls +8.5 vs Saders
Landers -8.5 vs Jags
Chiefs -6.5 vs Sharks
Lions -8.5 vs Tahs
Brumbies -12.5 vs Sunwolves

I have taken Waratahs +9.5 at 9/10 and a double of Waratahs to win onto Sharks to win at 9.26/1.

Pretty confident that the Waratahs and Sharks will win

Just a quick one for you Hein,
I really enjoy your style, you are a scribe of note.
Keep up the great work.
Cheers,
Mike.

Kirky wrote: Just a quick one for you Hein,
I really enjoy your style, you are a scribe of note.
Keep up the great work.
Cheers,
Mike.

Thanks a mil Mike. Really appreciate it!!

Crusaders -6.5 @ 15/20 Sunbet.

My early main bet for weekend. Expecting a response from Saders after underperforming last week, pace in backline will really trouble Bulls and the Bulls themselves are just too error-prone on attack. Backed them successfully on cap last week but opposing them this time around.

Vastly changed Jags team likely

1 Vivas
2 Montoya
3 Pieretto
4 Paulos *
5 Kremer
6 Leguizamón
7 Ortega Desio
8 Lezana
9 Ezcurra
10 Díaz Bonilla
11 Moyano
12 de la Fuente
13 Moroni
14 Canelliere
15 Boffelli

*Debut

Have taken as much Landers -10 as Betway let's me (which isn't much)

Line out to -15 most books in Europe

on flip side Jags bench looks v strong - looking for best Jags 2nd half cap, +6.5 @ 10/11 best i can get at moment.

southpaw wrote "on flip side Jags bench looks v strong - looking for best Jags 2nd half cap, +6.5 @ 10/11 best i can get at moment.

Source: Otago Daily Times

Highlanders loose forward Elliot Dixon will notch 100 Super Rugby games for the franchise against the Jaguares at Forsyth Barr Stadium on Saturday.
The hard-running No 8 made his debut in 2012 against the Brumbies and has featured in all three back row positions.

Perhaps his most memorable moment came when he scored a try against the Hurricanes to help the Highlanders to their 2015 Super Rugby title.

There is some rotation in the front row with Ayden Johnstone and Siate Tokolahi starting, while the hard-working Daniel Lienert-Brown and Tyrel Lomax head to the bench.

Lock Josh Dickson moves into the starting line-up and All Black Liam Squire will make his return from the bench after a lengthy injury break.

The injury to Ben Smith means there has been some juggling in the backs. Matt Faddes moves to fullback and Jordan Hyland will make his second appearance on the right wing.

Sio Tomkinson will partner Rob Thompson in the midfield as Tei Walden takes a break.

Dan Hollinshead, who joined the squad as a replacement for Bryn Gatland, will make his debut from the bench.

Argentina's Jaguares will be keen to get their four-week tour off to a positive start, while the Highlanders will want to head to South Africa next week on a winning note after last week's draw against the Chiefs.

Coach Aaron Mauger has been impressed with Dixon's form this season.

"To play 100 Super Rugby games for one club is an awesome effort,'' he said.

"The fact that he is still demanding selection through his current form speaks volumes for Elliot and his attitude to the game.

"I'm sure the boys will want to put out an effort worthy of this milestone for him.''

NZ Rugby and the Highlanders will recognise the achievement post-match with a presentation.

The game kicks off at 7.35pm.

Highlanders: Matt Faddes, Jordan Hyland, Rob Thompson, Patelesio Tomkinson, Tevita Li, Aaron Smith, Elliot Dixon, James = Lentjes, Luke Whitelock, Tom Franklin, Josh Dickson, Siate Tokolahi, Liam Coltman, Ayden Johnstone.

Reserves: Ash Dixon, Daniel Lienert-Brown, Tyrel Lomax, Jack Whetton, Liam Squire, Kayne Hammington, Daniel Hollinshead, Thomas Umaga- Jensen.

Hi Southpaw, congrats on getting the better of me last on Tahs v Sharks. The Red Card took the fun out of it for me. I think the red card rule should be ten minutes same as yellow, but same player cannot come back and goes to judicary for preset heavy penalties. Rugby is for the fans and red cards ruin games in the modern era.
As a punter I accept the risk but as a fan it ruins the contest.

Back to Landers v Jags, Landers bench is also very strong.

Book is out to -14.5 in NZ and I am getting in on Jags at that level. Landers backline is missing B Smith, W Naholo and a midfielder.

Saving some fire power for total points looking to go overs (line not out yet). FB Stadium is fast as and both of these teams can score points.

Cheers & good luck to everyone.

SS Rugby Challenge caps came out a bit later this week and I've waited for them to settle. After 100% in the first week I hit only one out of 5 last week. So here goes. Home team cap in brackets.

Sharks (+8.5) v WP XV - Both teams came within one score of the initial cap last week. They both let in too many points and seemed to have relaxed when ahead with a bonus. Match played on the Kings Park B field. WP team is pretty decent again and they should cover the cap, but it will be close.

Bulls (-20.5) v Griffons - Bulls came in nicely last week, and so did the Griffons in beating a huge cap against Griquas. Match is played at Loftus as the opener to the Super Rugby game. Bulls for me in in front of a fuller stadium and Stighling on the bench.

Pumas (-33.5) v Leopards - Pumas made heavy work of a much improved Valke last week. The Leopards were in the game against the Lions until half time and then fell apart. The big handicap is dangerous and a couple of late tries can really throw you out. If pushed, Leopards only because I'm from Klerksdorp.

Lions (-22.5) v Valke - Another Super Rugby pre-match kicking off at 12:00. It is also the first home game for the Lions and they should have more than enough to cover the cap.

Border (+12.5) v Boland - Boland have been mighty impressive this year as they easily put away FS last week. Border kept WP honest but faded (not enough for me) in the end. Border remains patchwork and Boland should have too much for them.

Namibia (+30.5) v Griquas - Namibia back at home where the kept the Lions honest and beating that cap by 19 points. Griquas put away the Valke easily and struggled against the Griffons. Namibia scored 23 points in both their matches and if they repeat that would require Griquas to get 50+ to cover the cap. Large plus, home team, Namibia get the vote.

On Sunday there is two matches played in Mossel Bay.

EP (+7.5) v FS - I'm still not sure how EP scored all that points last week and how the Cheetahs only managed a couple of late tries again Boland after such a great first week against the Sharks XV. Sanity to prevail, and the Cheetahs to cover the cap.

SWD -2.5 v Zimbabwe - SWD have been pathetic the first two weeks and Zimbabwe surprised again last week. They have some big boys and play a very physical game. They kick their penalties, scrum good and keep it tight. I noticed on their Twitter that they are based in False bay and train every day - as they don't have anything else to do - So I'm giving them the benefit this week.

Balls , just wrote a whole preview of the weekend and somehow closed the window grrr.

So I'm gonna be short .

First up The Blues , horrible side , both teams pretty much at full strength, expect the blues to run them close but fall at the last hurdle . going Blues plus 8.5 at start and a small be on the plus in running if canes start well.

Rebels vs Reds , expecting reds to be up for this and have lumped onto the plus 9.5. Lots of rain about too before the game , will go unders if quote in the 50's.

Have jumped on the Crusaders minus 7.5 , like their team and I think they will spank the Bulls.

On the Jags plus 12.5 and will hope to get bigger plusses in running , like South's mention about a good Jag's bench.

On the Sharks plus 6.5 at 7/10. The Chiefs pack could suffer . Also like unders if quote in the 50's

Lions worthy favourites , whitley is back. Waratahs overall quite average , made the bulls look poor too. Will still take Tahs plus 9.5 at 7/10 and some plus in running.

Lastly the Brwumbies have been good to me this season. I don't really like the team though this season. A day game ... so some points maybe ? waiting for the wolves team , then willl decide ,

I m gonna stick with try time in the first 2 games tomorrow morning – yes heavy rain expected in the morning in both location but it should stop 5/6 hours before the game so could dry the pitch enough to see some good rugby

Blues vs Hurricanes
Try before 15” @ 1.62

Rebels vs Reds
Try before 15” @ 1.62
Try Rebels before 20” @ 1.62

All on Bwin

Blues v Canes, over 48 points. Too low for these sides that hate tackling.

See the overs train is well on its way this weekend.

Blues +6.5 @ 9/10 and Canes under 27.5 @ 8/10 - Canes grossly overrated, going to be wet underfoot & Blues defense has been good this season. Briant in the middle too - expecting a tight NZ derby

Saders -7.5 9/10 taken earlier this week onto Bulls under 2.5 tries @ 0.74/1, even with Rasta in the middle I don’t see Bulls crossing the whitewash 3 times against Saders staunch defense & Bulls 3 point policy

threepeat wrote: southpaw wrote "on flip side Jags bench looks v strong - looking for best Jags 2nd half cap, +6.5 @ 10/11 best i can get at moment.


Hi Southpaw, congrats on getting the better of me last on Tahs v Sharks. The Red Card took the fun out of it for me. I think the red card rule should be ten minutes same as yellow, but same player cannot come back and goes to judicary for preset heavy penalties. Rugby is for the fans and red cards ruin games in the modern era.
As a punter I accept the risk but as a fan it ruins the contest.

Back to Landers v Jags, Landers bench is also very strong.

Book is out to -14.5 in NZ and I am getting in on Jags at that level. Landers backline is missing B Smith, W Naholo and a midfielder.

Saving some fire power for total points looking to go overs (line not out yet). FB Stadium is fast as and both of these teams can score points.

Cheers & good luck to everyone.

Hi 3peat and glad you're back, thought you'd left us! Stiff on the red but Tahs were offering little most that game, Sharks on cap and win i feel would have still arrived regardless of red.

I think there's some new belief in this Jags side but think they'll really miss the star 10 who's on bench, he's been the catalyst for their season revival. Comes onto pitch and watch the turnaround on Sat. Best talent i've seen come out of Argentina for a while bar Isa a few years ago.

One bet so far and it’s a gem of a bet in my opinion.

Crusaders to score a try in the first 20 minutes, 17/20 with SportingBet (presumably also Bwin, Bradie).

Would have won in 8/11 games so far this season. They won’t be kicking penalties so it’s basically a bet on them scoring some points in the first quarter of a game they’re 10 point favourites in

Canes by at least 12 - - - (-11.5 at 18/10)
Rebels -15.5 at 18/10
Bulls won’t lose by more than 3 – best I can find at the moment is 17/10 – probably 18/10 or 2/1 tomorrow
Fancy Jaguares +8.5 (15/10)
Sharks to win at 33/20
Waratahs will beat the Lions – just in case Tahs+1.5 at 18/10
Brumbies to put Sunwolves to the sword - 3/1 for the-25.5

Northerner wrote: One bet so far and it’s a gem of a bet in my opinion.

Crusaders to score a try in the first 20 minutes, 17/20 with SportingBet (presumably also Bwin, Bradie.

Question perhaps for Bradie, or anyone else if they know.
I have a SportingBet account which is restricted to joke stakes.
As they are the same set-up, if I open a Bwin account, will it be subject to the same pathetic restrictions straight away?

And on a separate note, I'm on Blues +8 to kick off the weekend

Brad Breath wrote:

Northerner wrote: One bet so far and it’s a gem of a bet in my opinion.

Crusaders to score a try in the first 20 minutes, 17/20 with SportingBet (presumably also Bwin, Bradie.

Question perhaps for Bradie, or anyone else if they know.
I have a SportingBet account which is restricted to joke stakes.
As they are the same set-up, if I open a Bwin account, will it be subject to the same pathetic restrictions straight away?

And on a separate note, I'm on Blues +8 to kick off the weekend

Hey Brad
I have my bwin account for ages but the fact that I am restricted on Sportingbet did not affect my stakes on Bwin so worth opening a one imo - however, and just a fyi, betfair sportbook and paddy restricted me on the same day

It seems like the weather has been dry fro almost 10 hours in Auckland so will follow Pierre on the over points

Over 48.5 @ 1.83

Hurricanes under 27.5 points at 10/11 and Blues to win by 1 - 12 at 3/1

Bulls v Saders -

Saders over 29.5 points @ 8/10 sunbet

Rebels by 1 - 12 at 1.75/1 and under 6.5 tries at 8/10

Over 46.5 points @ 0.84 - against my will but Gardener in the middle, quote lowish & conditions look alright. Hoping Rebels blow out to a decent lead so things open up

Bulls more penalties than tries @ 2.60 seems like a decent value so will give it a go
Same on Bulls to score a penalty before 23" @ 1.87

Saders over 29.5 @ 0.78/1
Bulls under 2.5 tries 0.74/1
Crusaders -7.5 @ 9/10

Crusaders -8.5 at 19/20 and Bulls under 2.5 tries at 19/20

bradie82 wrote: Bulls more penalties than tries @ 2.60 seems like a decent value so will give it a go

Have followed you on this - Saders scrum has been penalised a lot, particularly when Franks not there.

Also Saders -7 placed earlier in the week.

Bet365 is proposing tries and point on the Bulls vs Griffons game which will also be live so gonna throw few beers on

Bulls R40 @ 1.66
Over 8.5 tries @ 1.66
Over 62.5 @ 1.83

Northerner wrote: One bet so far and it’s a gem of a bet in my opinion.

Crusaders to score a try in the first 20 minutes, 17/20 with SportingBet (presumably also Bwin, Bradie).

Would have won in 8/11 games so far this season. They won’t be kicking penalties so it’s basically a bet on them scoring some points in the first quarter of a game they’re 10 point favourites in

Following you on that one and adding
Try scored 15" @ 1.90 (Bwin) - its 10"30 @ 1.80 on bet365 and its been a successful punt for the past few weeks

Clermont v La Rochelle

Choo Choo!!!!
Yes I m jumping on the Over Express Train and this sounds crazy as this is a final but I have seen those 2 teams games most of the season, and both have been playing an open game and firing some great rugby with their backline. Clermont has a full squad with Raka, Fofana, Penaud and Parra/Lopez to lead them, while La Rochelle, despite Murimurivalu and Vito being out, has a very strong backline and they will play an open game with Kerr-Barlow and West. Forecast is good in Newcastle sand last year, 2 teams playing an open rugby ended up in a 61 points and 6 tries final so why not tonight.

Over 45.5 @ 1.75 (Bwin)
Over 4.5 tries @ 1.62 (Unibet) – cut is 5.5 on all other bookies

With you on the overs Bradie, got on the same 45.5 with (my brand new) Bwin account @ 1.85 earlier today.

Much bigger stake on Clermont win @ 1.44, placed yesterday.

And Yato for the last try at 17s. (He's on the bench).
The bloke is an absolute freak!

Pay no attention to this post. It's what happens when a footie punter watches the rugby of an evening
Saders -16.5 @ 3/2

southpaw wrote: Crusaders -6.5 @ 15/20 Sunbet.

My early main bet for weekend. Expecting a response from Saders after underperforming last week, pace in backline will really trouble Bulls and the Bulls themselves are just too error-prone on attack. Backed them successfully on cap last week but opposing them this time around.

added Saders over 29.5 @ 8/10 this morning.
small interest 1st try C Taylor 15/1

bradie82 wrote:

Northerner wrote: One bet so far and it’s a gem of a bet in my opinion.

Crusaders to score a try in the first 20 minutes, 17/20 with SportingBet (presumably also Bwin, Bradie).

Would have won in 8/11 games so far this season. They won’t be kicking penalties so it’s basically a bet on them scoring some points in the first quarter of a game they’re 10 point favourites in

Following you on that one and adding
Try scored 15" @ 1.90 (Bwin) - its 10"30 @ 1.80 on bet365 and its been a successful punt for the past few weeks

Thanks Northerner for the gem

Quite a good day yesterday
Nothing appealing so far on the first game so will go with my usual early try and a second half handicap both small stake

Landers v Jags

Try before 15” @ 1.57 (Bwin)
Jags 2nd half cap, +8.5 @ 1.71 (Unibet)

Highlanders to win the game and under 57.5 points at 1.29/1

Big bet Chiefs under 28.5 @ 8/10

For an interest - Highlanders -6.5 first half cap 9/10

Also having a big strike on the Chiefs under 28.5 points at 8/10