Super Rugby Futures

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2 weeks 4 days ago - 2 weeks 4 days ago #1 by BookieDave
Super Rugby Futures was created by BookieDave
Hey all,

With the season winding up, thought I would share some prices with you...

Big winners this week are obviously the lions...

Looking like the following finals...

Crusaders v Stormers
Hurricanes v Lions
Jaguares v Rebels
Brumbies v Bulls

Just to clarify...these are 100% prices for finishing positions..
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Last edit: 2 weeks 4 days ago by BookieDave.
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2 weeks 4 days ago #2 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Futures
There is still a 6% chance that ALL teams in SAF conference make it.

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2 weeks 4 days ago #3 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Futures
Hi Dave,
How are you using this data to bet the qualifiers?

Did you get an answer about foreigners getting accounts at GG Gaming?

They have week 17 SupeRugby posted already!

Trust you finally joined the Brumbies -13.5 train last week ;- )
Cheers

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2 weeks 4 days ago #4 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Futures
Hey 3P,

I use this sheet for my futures prices. The market has been off all year, lucky for me it was off on Jaguares and Brumbies :)

I don't think I can set up accounts from over here :(

Just saw their lines for this week, love it how they go up 1st...big props to them for providing a great service for you saffa punters!

I would be all over the Brumbies...they will start favorites. Also would be on the Stormers -19.5..

Haha, yeah stayed off that game, my line ended up getting to 13...so not bet. Was happy to cheer the forum :)
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2 weeks 4 days ago #5 by Brazil
Replied by Brazil on topic Super Rugby Futures

BookieDave wrote: Hey 3P,

Just saw their lines for this week, love it how they go up 1st...big props to them for providing a great service for you saffa punters!

I would be all over the Brumbies...they will start favorites. Also would be on the Stormers -19.5..

Comp In Type Date Round Match Score Tries Points Venue Time Adv Res Margin
S15 AUS LocalConf Sat, 08 Jun 2019 17 Waratahs v Brumbies Sydney 19:45 H
S15 AUS LocalConf Fri, 15 Mar 2019 5 Waratahs v Brumbies 13-19 2:3 1-4 Canberra 19:45 A L -12
S15 AUS LocalConf Sat, 14 Jul 2018 19 Waratahs v Brumbies 31-40 4:6 1-5 Sydney 19:45 H L -12
S15 AUS LocalConf Sat, 31 Mar 2018 7 Waratahs v Brumbies 24-17 2:1 4-1 Canberra 19:45 A W -12
S18 AUS LocalConf Sat, 18 Mar 2017 4 Waratahs v Brumbies 12-28 2:4 0-5 Sydney 19:45 H L 13+
S18 AUS LocalConf Sat, 16 Apr 2016 8 Waratahs v Brumbies 20-26 2:4 1-5 Sydney 19:40 H L -12
S18 AUS LocalConf Fri, 04 Mar 2016 2 Waratahs v Brumbies 15-32 2:4 0-5 Canberra 19:40 A L 13+

With you on Brumbies,won last 5/6 derby games.

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2 weeks 3 days ago #6 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Futures
Yeah nice, even if both side full strength I think Brumbies should be faves...I have a feeling that the Tahs will get decimated this week..

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1 week 5 days ago #7 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Futures
Bulls and Lions now both $1.07 to make the 8....Only going to be 2 Kiwi sides in the 8 also!

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1 week 4 days ago - 1 week 3 days ago #8 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Futures
Had to delete...wrong info!
Last edit: 1 week 3 days ago by BookieDave. Reason: Wrong info...

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1 week 4 days ago - 1 week 3 days ago #9 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Futures
Again...wrong info :)
Last edit: 1 week 3 days ago by BookieDave.

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1 week 4 days ago #10 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Futures

BookieDave wrote: Bulls and Lions now both $1.07 to make the 8....Only going to be 2 Kiwi sides in the 8 also!


Hi Dave, What about the Chiefs m8? After that Rebels performance in ChCh, would have to think they have a good shot at a five pointer in Melbourne = 31 + 5 = 36 Good enough for as high as six. Cheers 3P

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1 week 4 days ago - 1 week 3 days ago #11 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Futures
last one..
Last edit: 1 week 3 days ago by BookieDave.

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1 week 4 days ago #12 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Futures

threepeat wrote:

BookieDave wrote: Bulls and Lions now both $1.07 to make the 8....Only going to be 2 Kiwi sides in the 8 also!


Hi Dave, What about the Chiefs m8? After that Rebels performance in ChCh, would have to think they have a good shot at a five pointer in Melbourne = 31 + 5 = 36 Good enough for as high as six. Cheers 3P


Yeah the Rebels were poo...I hope Chiefs win, and win well..They are $126 to make the 8 only 3 weeks ago!!

The Chiefs = Can get as high as 36 points, They could over take the Lions, but NOT the bulls (unless there is an 85 point swing...but because the lions and Bulls play each other it means that one of those teams is locked into 5th...Now, the Sharks and Stormers play each other on 33 and 34 points..Unless it is a draw and the Chiefs win by 50+ then finishing 6th is impossible...

So, the 2 spots the chiefs a likely to finish are 8th and 9th...The difference between 8th and 9th will solely rest on bonus points :)

Hope that clears it up!
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1 week 4 days ago #13 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Futures

BookieDave wrote:

BookieDave wrote: Also these 4 teams are LOCKED into the 8...

Crusaders
Hurricanes
Jaguares
Brumbies
Bulls
***LIONS!!** ---forgot them haha

Teams that can make 8 and their 100% prices
Stormers $1.39
Rebels $1.42
Sharks $3.03
Chiefs $4.68
Highlanders $31.06
Waratahs $588.29



Actually, hold up...may have found an error in my sheet..nothing major though :)

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1 week 3 days ago #14 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Futures
Ok, so totally stuffed my simulator! Also adjusted this weeks SIM lines to reflect non motivational games.

These are now the correct prices..

Crusaders, Hurricanes, Jaguares, Brumbies and Bulls are all locked into the Finals.

Prices to make the other 3 spots...

Lions $1.40
Stormers $1.48
Highlanders $1.93
Rebels $2.39
Chiefs $2.85
Sharks $3.08

Probably Finals Match ups...

Crusaders v Highlanders
Hurricanes v Bulls
Jaguares v Rebels
Brumbies v Stormers
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1 week 3 days ago #15 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Futures
For me, I hate to say it, but i would look at laying the Crusaders or backing around them..

Looks like the will play the Highlanders and then the Hurricanes...probably the 2 teams left that would give them a run....Imagine if it was the Rebels and Brumbies or something. The Canes and Landers are a lot more daunting...

Here are my winner prices..

TEAMS WIN
Crusaders $1.96
Hurricanes $4.26
Jaguares $7.57
Brumbies $14.58
Highlanders $66.67
Chiefs $68.97
Stormers $163.95
Rebels $172.43
Lions $178.59
Bulls $227.30
Sharks $400.04
Waratahs $1000000000000000000

I still see value in the Hurricanes at $5.5ish, also in the Jaguares...Will have 2 home games and who knows, they may host the final should the Crusaders lose a quarter or a semi...

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6 days 22 hours ago #16 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Futures

BookieDave wrote: For me, I hate to say it, but i would look at laying the Crusaders or backing around them..


Got some Saders outright @ 3.0 after round 3 or 4 I think it was.
But I'm inclined to agree with your statement Dave.

As such have had a nibble on Chiefs outright @ 150.
They are apparently "absolutely hissing" this week and I expect them to win comfortably over the Rebels.

Yes they are likely to come up against the Saders in Chch the following week - but funny things can happen......

No harm at that price anyway ;-)

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5 days 5 hours ago #17 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Futures
Hi Brad,
I also took a nibble on the Chiefs @151, as an insurance bet, in case they qualified eight and they got another shot at the Crusaders! As represented on the week 18 thread, weekend off to a roaring start with Chiefs winning big, had gone big early and then went up the chart to about -21! Should have gone higher!

Going Bulls & Brumbies tonight + Toulouse ;- )

Cheers 3P

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