Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby

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4 years 9 months ago #1 by Brent Graham
Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby was created by Brent Graham
This weeks Best Bet Brumbies -13.5 arrived Click here to get our free weekly e-mail but things went pear shaped for me when the Crusaders blew a 20 point lead and then the Sharks and the Stormers all fell a score short of delivering overs plays.
Only 2 weeks of the regular season left and here are my handicap projections with Dave from Australia projections to the right and GGGaming opening lines in brackets - all based on the home team

Highlanders -8.5 v Bulls -9.5 (-10.5)
Reds +3.5 v Blues -1.5 (11/10)
Crusaders -16.5 v Rebels -16.5 (-14.5)
Waratahs -1.5 v Brumbies +6.5 (13/20)
Lions -0.5 v Hurricanes +2.5 (8/10)
Stormers -22.5 v Sunwolves -22.5 (-19.5)
Jaguares -5.5 v Sharks -7.5 (-7.5)

Video to follow

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4 years 9 months ago #2 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Here is the video


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4 years 9 months ago #3 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
This week's edition of Post Match Scuffle from Couch Critic.........., Slip Ups and Saunas

goodforthegame.co.za/Couch-Critic/post-m...-ups-and-saunas.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 9 months ago #4 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
my form on Friday games last week was terrible but i'm flying into this one early -

Highlanders -8 @ 10/11

It's a simple must win, must get bonus pt situation for Highlanders. Results on weekend gave them a chance to haul in teams around them and after a bye week with several key players back from injury against a Bulls side playing last game of a very long tour, i can see the home side winning by a couple tries.
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4 years 9 months ago #5 by JacoAucamp
Replied by JacoAucamp on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Granny's house and pension fund on Hurricanes and Stormers minus this weekend.

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4 years 9 months ago #6 by davopnz
Replied by davopnz on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Bulls flying Pollard back, huge.

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4 years 9 months ago #7 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby

davopnz wrote: Bulls flying Pollard back, huge.


sounds like desperation. He was in Europe last week for a medical with Montpelier. So goes from Aus, to SA, to France, back to SA, and now down to NZ, and will get one training session in before Friday. Not sure this really helps Bulls but good luck to them.

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4 years 9 months ago #8 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Betting Preview for Highlanders v Bulls and after leaning Highlanders early doors I am going for a home win but by 12 or less

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4 years 9 months ago #9 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Highlanders by 11-20 @ 28/10 for me.
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4 years 9 months ago #10 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
I should be shocked...but my god how dumb are the waratahs!

They MUST rest their Wallabies this week or next week. For some STUPID reason they are resting NEXT week...How in this day and age with analytics and what not, that they could make this decision is beyond me.

What SHOULD have been done and why...

If they rest their players THIS week, I reckon their chances of winning the game drop to about 35%....Then if they play full strength against the Highlanders then they are probably 30% chance to win in Dunedin...
Now, they are doing the opposite... So, their winning % is now around 55% this week and next week v the Higlanders with ALL their Wallabies out would be around 10%..maybe even less!

Hopefully you are still with me...
Rest week 1 = Total winning % is 65%
Rest week 2 = Total winning % is 65%...

NOW! here is the kicker... They CANT pass the Brumbies on the ladder so its only a "4/5 Point Game"....If they beat the Highlanders however, then they are in DIRECT competition with them for that final spot and therefore if they do beat them it means the Highlanders CANT get a win that week, making it and "8 Point Game"...

As you can tell I am bewildered as to how this decision has come about, so thanks for letting me vent!
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4 years 9 months ago #11 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby

BookieDave wrote: I should be shocked...but my god how dumb are the waratahs!

They MUST rest their Wallabies this week or next week. For some STUPID reason they are resting NEXT week...How in this day and age with analytics and what not, that they could make this decision is beyond me.

What SHOULD have been done and why...

If they rest their players THIS week, I reckon their chances of winning the game drop to about 35%....Then if they play full strength against the Highlanders then they are probably 30% chance to win in Dunedin...
Now, they are doing the opposite... So, their winning % is now around 55% this week and next week v the Higlanders with ALL their Wallabies out would be around 10%..maybe even less!

Hopefully you are still with me...
Rest week 1 = Total winning % is 65%
Rest week 2 = Total winning % is 65%...

What about if they just don't rest their wannabies, and they just play a full strength side both weeks ?

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4 years 9 months ago #12 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby

Brent Graham wrote: This weeks Best Bet Brumbies -13.5 arrived Click here to get our free weekly e-mail but things went pear shaped for me when the Crusaders blew a 20 point lead and then the Sharks and the Stormers all fell a score short of delivering overs plays.
Only 2 weeks of the regular season left and here are my handicap projections with Dave from Australia projections to the right and GGGaming opening lines in brackets - all based on the home team

Highlanders -8.5 v Bulls -9.5 (-10.5)
Reds +3.5 v Blues -1.5 (11/10)
Crusaders -16.5 v Rebels -16.5 (-14.5)
Waratahs -1.5 v Brumbies +6.5 (13/20)
Lions -0.5 v Hurricanes +2.5 (8/10)
Stormers -22.5 v Sunwolves -22.5 (-19.5)
Jaguares -5.5 v Sharks -7.5 (-7.5)

Video to follow


**My Updated Lines After Teams**

Highlanders -9.5 - No Bets for me
Reds -2.0 - Rieko and PT out for Blues, Tate big loss for reds, but I think the Blues get man handled at set piece. Decent go on the Reds +3.5 for me
Crusaders -19.0 - No idea here.
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4 years 9 months ago #13 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Thanks Dave - have flipped to the Reds outright on the back of team news - Reds v Blues Preview

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4 years 9 months ago #14 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Looking forward to chatting to 1st time guest @Pierrebal on tonights #TheHandicap live at 21h00


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4 years 9 months ago #15 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
With Rieko rested v Reds, taking Folau Fainga'a to take out top try scorer in regular season based on game plan for last two games. Paying $5 Confidence $$$$ Laumape out for last SA game? Rebels playing Saders in 7 degrees = Maddocks out.



TOP TRY SCORER-2019 TOP REGULAR SEASON TRY SCORER
Ngani Laumape (Hurr)
4.00

Jack Maddocks (Rebels)
4.50

Folau Fainga'a (Bru)
5.00

Rieko Ioane (Blues)
6.50

Sevu Reece (Cru)
8.00

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4 years 9 months ago #16 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby

threepeat wrote: With Rieko rested v Reds, taking Folau Fainga'a to take out top try scorer in regular season based on game plan for last two games. Paying $5 Confidence $$$$ Laumape out for last SA game? Rebels playing Saders in 7 degrees = Maddocks out.



TOP TRY SCORER-2019 TOP REGULAR SEASON TRY SCORER
Ngani Laumape (Hurr)
4.00

Jack Maddocks (Rebels)
4.50

Folau Fainga'a (Bru)
5.00

Rieko Ioane (Blues)
6.50

Sevu Reece (Cru)
8.00


Laumape is in the starting lineup the Canes put up on their twitter.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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4 years 9 months ago #17 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby

hanrick wrote:

threepeat wrote: With Rieko rested v Reds, taking Folau Fainga'a to take out top try scorer in regular season based on game plan for last two games. Paying $5 Confidence $$$$ Laumape out for last SA game? Rebels playing Saders in 7 degrees = Maddocks out.


Laumape is in the starting lineup the Canes put up on their twitter.


Yep he's starting this week but Plumtree said he'll be rested v Blues next week
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4 years 9 months ago #18 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Couch Critic's preview of Super Rugby Round 17

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...ound-17-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 9 months ago #19 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Crusaders v Rebels is up and I fancy a fast start from the home team

See you at 2030 for GGGamingGoneMad and 21h00 for The Handicap ;)

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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4 years 9 months ago - 4 years 9 months ago #20 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
The Brumbies have a great record in Sydney and I fancy the 11/10 currently on offer Waratahs v Brumbies preview is up

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Last edit: 4 years 9 months ago by Brent Graham.

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4 years 9 months ago #21 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby

BookieDave wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: This weeks Best Bet Brumbies -13.5 arrived Click here to get our free weekly e-mail but things went pear shaped for me when the Crusaders blew a 20 point lead and then the Sharks and the Stormers all fell a score short of delivering overs plays.
Only 2 weeks of the regular season left and here are my handicap projections with Dave from Australia projections to the right and GGGaming opening lines in brackets - all based on the home team

Highlanders -8.5 v Bulls -9.5 (-10.5)
Reds +3.5 v Blues -1.5 (11/10)
Crusaders -16.5 v Rebels -16.5 (-14.5)
Waratahs -1.5 v Brumbies +6.5 (13/20)
Lions -0.5 v Hurricanes +2.5 (8/10)
Stormers -22.5 v Sunwolves -22.5 (-19.5)
Jaguares -5.5 v Sharks -7.5 (-7.5)

Video to follow


**My Updated Lines After Teams**

Highlanders -9.5 - No Bets for me
Reds -2.0 - Rieko and PT out for Blues, Tate big loss for reds, but I think the Blues get man handled at set piece. Decent go on the Reds +3.5 for me
Crusaders -19.0 - No idea here.


**Updated After Teams**
Tahs -0.5 - No bet here, cant believe they not resting here.
Lions +0.5 - Key outs for the Canes, maybe back them 2nd half handicap.
Stormers -19.5 - These to team lineups stink! was hoping to back the Stormers, but staying well away now.

Waiting on Jags team

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4 years 9 months ago #22 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby

Kirky wrote:

BookieDave wrote: I should be shocked...but my god how dumb are the waratahs!

They MUST rest their Wallabies this week or next week. For some STUPID reason they are resting NEXT week...How in this day and age with analytics and what not, that they could make this decision is beyond me.

What SHOULD have been done and why...

If they rest their players THIS week, I reckon their chances of winning the game drop to about 35%....Then if they play full strength against the Highlanders then they are probably 30% chance to win in Dunedin...
Now, they are doing the opposite... So, their winning % is now around 55% this week and next week v the Higlanders with ALL their Wallabies out would be around 10%..maybe even less!

Hopefully you are still with me...
Rest week 1 = Total winning % is 65%
Rest week 2 = Total winning % is 65%...

What about if they just don't rest their wannabies, and they just play a full strength side both weeks ?


Yeah, my take is solely based on the deal they made to rest Wallabies...

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4 years 9 months ago #23 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby

BookieDave wrote:

BookieDave wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: This weeks Best Bet Brumbies -13.5 arrived Click here to get our free weekly e-mail but things went pear shaped for me when the Crusaders blew a 20 point lead and then the Sharks and the Stormers all fell a score short of delivering overs plays.
Only 2 weeks of the regular season left and here are my handicap projections with Dave from Australia projections to the right and GGGaming opening lines in brackets - all based on the home team

Highlanders -8.5 v Bulls -9.5 (-10.5)
Reds +3.5 v Blues -1.5 (11/10)
Crusaders -16.5 v Rebels -16.5 (-14.5)
Waratahs -1.5 v Brumbies +6.5 (13/20)
Lions -0.5 v Hurricanes +2.5 (8/10)
Stormers -22.5 v Sunwolves -22.5 (-19.5)
Jaguares -5.5 v Sharks -7.5 (-7.5)

Video to follow


**My Updated Lines After Teams**

Highlanders -9.5 - No Bets for me
Reds -2.0 - Rieko and PT out for Blues, Tate big loss for reds, but I think the Blues get man handled at set piece. Decent go on the Reds +3.5 for me
Crusaders -19.0 - No idea here.


**Updated After Teams**
Tahs -0.5 - No bet here, cant believe they not resting here.
Lions +0.5 - Key outs for the Canes, maybe back them 2nd half handicap.
Stormers -19.5 - These to team lineups stink! was hoping to back the Stormers, but staying well away now.

Waiting on Jags team


*Last one**

Jags -7.0 - No bet

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4 years 9 months ago #24 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
The last 3 previews are up

Jaguares v Sharks where I have eventually settled on -5.5 Jags

Stormers v Sunwolves where I am leaning Sunwolves on the handicap but will settle on the Semisi Masirewa ats play suggested in The Handicap live chat - price to follow

Lions v Hurricanes where over 51.5 stands out as the bet of the weekend with no real strong fancies competing with it

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4 years 9 months ago #25 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Sweet on the Highlanders this morning,:

Over 32.5 points 17/20
Try Handicap -1.5 17/20

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4 years 9 months ago #26 by Scoembo
Replied by Scoembo on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby

Pierrebal wrote: Sweet on the Highlanders this morning,:

Over 32.5 points 17/20
Try Handicap -1.5 17/20


Agree Pierrebal. Also took some Landers to score within 20 minutes.

Moving on to the Blues game I think they might actually beat the handicap of 2 today. Blues are like the Sharks in the fact that theres a lot of pressure to perform at home and they actually play their best games away from home. The Reds also lost Tate Mcdermot and nobody has said anything about Sefa Naivalu being sidelined since last week. One of their top carriers. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto also rested this week who also gets them nice go forward ball usually.

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4 years 9 months ago #27 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Also like Highlanders - over 31.5 at Sunbet

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4 years 9 months ago #28 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby

southpaw wrote: my form on Friday games last week was terrible but i'm flying into this one early -

Highlanders -8 @ 10/11

It's a simple must win, must get bonus pt situation for Highlanders. Results on weekend gave them a chance to haul in teams around them and after a bye week with several key players back from injury against a Bulls side playing last game of a very long tour, i can see the home side winning by a couple tries.


Was quite heavily invested early doors on the Highlanders minus, thought it would have got to about 12 Pts by now but pollard return tempered that.

Still happy with this bet and quite confident.

For smaller interest - 1st try NAHOLO 8/1

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4 years 9 months ago #29 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Highlanders over 31.5 points onto under 50.5 points in Reds/Blues game at just under 26/10

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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4 years 9 months ago #30 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Landers over 31.5 @ 1.87
Landers to score a try before 20” @ 1.61
Bulls under 23.5 @ 1.85
Bulls under 2.5 tries @ 1.95

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4 years 9 months ago #31 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Added —
Highlanders over 31.5
Highlanders over 15.5 1st half pts
Highlanders over 14.5 2nd half pts

Will start weekend with a bang or whimper.

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4 years 9 months ago #32 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Is there a whimper emoji?

Terrible Highlanders and by looks of a poor result for most punters. Friday games continue to be my bogey.

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4 years 9 months ago #33 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
HT in Reds v Blues, gone under 62.5 total points @ 1.95

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4 years 9 months ago #34 by Scoembo
Replied by Scoembo on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby

southpaw wrote: Is there a whimper emoji?

Terrible Highlanders and by looks of a poor result for most punters. Friday games continue to be my bogey.


I must agree with you here. Have gotten the last 2 Fridays horribly wrong

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4 years 9 months ago #35 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
With my lines being -19.0, Im on the Rebels +23.0 and Crusaders team total U39.5 ;)

This wont be fun to watch!

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4 years 9 months ago #36 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
I know there's been a lot of back and forth on here about the Saders this week and i want to get stuck into the first game of the weekend (its silly o clock here in the UK) but what are peoples thoughts genuinely?

The Rebels have fallen off a cliff in the past few weeks however Saders have been poor covering caps pretty much all season!
Yes they are at home and usually strong in Christchurch but i just get the impression things are not right behind the scenes..

Crusaders could smash the Rebels by 40 but then again only win by 7 i think the line being 22 is a lot but i just do not rate the Rebels at all..

I've just been online and as far as i can see there is no adverse weather down in Christchurch will leans me more towards the Saders. Any thoughts?

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4 years 9 months ago #37 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
You made points on both sides...therefore = No bet! :)

Its a big Handicap for a team (Crusaders) who have been playing very average...

Im on the plus..

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4 years 9 months ago #38 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Haha your probably right there Dave!

Yes it's a huge cap (over 3 converted tries) but the only snag is i cannot see Rebels doing anything at all going forward. The Saders are missing Franks badly but i reckon the + is perhaps the right way to go.

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4 years 9 months ago #39 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
I am not confident on the 80 minute cap but like the -9.5 HT cap put up in preview and I see Sportingbet still have it at 17/20 - gone 10.5 and 11.5 elsewhere

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4 years 9 months ago #40 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Cheers Brent i'll take a look at the preview now

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4 years 9 months ago #41 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
I got some Crusaders -16 earlier this week, which I'm happy with.

Wouldn't touch the -22 if I didn't have the above.

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4 years 9 months ago #42 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Also going with that Saders -9.5 ht cap, and going max bet so 10 units. Decided I either start day big or sit out.

Need an angry, fast start from Saders.

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4 years 9 months ago #43 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Exact same bet, all comes down to this 40 minutes

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4 years 9 months ago #44 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Cheers guys really helpful. By the sounds of it your all liking the first half cap so might get stuck into this then. I like the Tahs later on against the Brumbies but i feel like whatever your initial thoughts are with Super Rugby this season it's always best to go with completely the opposite against logic haha

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4 years 9 months ago #45 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
I m with you on that one

Crusaders -9.5 HT @ 1.85
For fun Sarders R20 HT @ 2.20

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4 years 9 months ago #46 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Good call lads, easy money!

What the hell was Ruru doing not kicking it out!!!!!!!!!

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4 years 9 months ago #47 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner good start to the day all round! Rebels have done bugger all going forward.

Scott Barrett is a machine.

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4 years 9 months ago #48 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
Brumbies 021.5 at 17/20 Sunbet - good record in Sydney and hoping for some rolling maul tries

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4 years 9 months ago #49 by BookieDave
Replied by BookieDave on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
My bets almost won! hahahahah

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4 years 9 months ago #50 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
The Rebels have been utterly smoked.

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