Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
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4 years 10 months ago #1
by Brent Graham
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Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby was created by Brent Graham
Had a good weekend of punting (World Cup u20s excluded) and we have 1 more round of regular season Super Rugby action with loads of permutations possible for the travelling playoff position - our Aussie bookie Dave leads that discussion in this
Super Rugby Futures
thread
Here are my projected caps for week 18 - team selections will be a major factor especially given some teams have nothing to play for and others have already secured a top 4 spot
Highlanders -14.5 v Waratahs
Rebels +7.5 v Chiefs
Jaguares -22.5 v Sunwolves
Hurricanes -7.5 v Blues
Brumbies -9.5 v Reds
Stormers -5.5 v Sharks
Bulls -7.5 v Lions
Here is this weeks wrap and projection video
Here are my projected caps for week 18 - team selections will be a major factor especially given some teams have nothing to play for and others have already secured a top 4 spot
Highlanders -14.5 v Waratahs
Rebels +7.5 v Chiefs
Jaguares -22.5 v Sunwolves
Hurricanes -7.5 v Blues
Brumbies -9.5 v Reds
Stormers -5.5 v Sharks
Bulls -7.5 v Lions
Here is this weeks wrap and projection video
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4 years 10 months ago #2
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
GGG caps on the right, main difference Highlanders game - they have gone 8/10 the minus, the key will be team selection
Highlanders -14.5 v Waratahs -10.5
Rebels +7.5 v Chiefs +6.5
Jaguares -22.5 v Sunwolves -17.5
Hurricanes -7.5 v Blues -8.5
Brumbies -9.5 v Reds -10.5
Stormers -5.5 v Sharks -6.5
Bulls -7.5 v Lions -6.5
Taken a double Highladers -10.5, Bulls -6.5
Highlanders -14.5 v Waratahs -10.5
Rebels +7.5 v Chiefs +6.5
Jaguares -22.5 v Sunwolves -17.5
Hurricanes -7.5 v Blues -8.5
Brumbies -9.5 v Reds -10.5
Stormers -5.5 v Sharks -6.5
Bulls -7.5 v Lions -6.5
Taken a double Highladers -10.5, Bulls -6.5
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4 years 10 months ago #3
by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Chiefs have opened as dogs vs Rebels?!
Taken Chiefs +1.5 @ 1.89
Taken Chiefs +1.5 @ 1.89
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4 years 10 months ago #4
by southpaw
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totally agree and just read Brodie back this week as well.
Climbed into Chiefs win @ evens.
Climbed into Chiefs win @ evens.
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4 years 10 months ago #5
by ThoughtsOnSports
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Piling into Bulls win @0.8 and Chiefs win @1.1.
Lions without Kwagga.
Lions without Kwagga.
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4 years 10 months ago #6
by RuggaBugga
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Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Landers -10.5
Chiefs W
Bulls W
GOLDEN!!!!!!!!!
Chiefs W
Bulls W
GOLDEN!!!!!!!!!
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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4 years 10 months ago #7
by davopnz
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Tahs have confirmed they'll best resting so grab -10.5 while you can.
"Waratahs assistant coach Steve Tandy confirmed players would be rested and backed the next wave to step up."
Canes will also be resting a few against Blues, Laumape confirmed and likely Ardie and TJ too "Having secured a home playoff game, Plumtree said he would be looking to give some tired bodies a break in Saturday's game against the Blues in Wellington."
Really liked Bulls at first glance but they have a mounting injury list now "The Bulls have further injury worries with Schalk Brits and Marco van Staden both suffering concussion in their final 24-all draw on the tour in Dunedin against the Highlanders, meaning both are unlikely to be available for selection this coming weekend.
Add to that an ankle injury to Burger Odendaal and coach Pote Human may well have to do some shuffling for the coming weekend’s starting line-up before naming the side to take on the Lions."
Any word on Duane?
Depending on other results both Bulls and Lions may be able to control their fate on the ladder, finishing 6th actually looks more advantageous than finishing 5th, away vs Brumbies rather than Canes. You can never know if teams would throw a game in these situations though.
"Waratahs assistant coach Steve Tandy confirmed players would be rested and backed the next wave to step up."
Canes will also be resting a few against Blues, Laumape confirmed and likely Ardie and TJ too "Having secured a home playoff game, Plumtree said he would be looking to give some tired bodies a break in Saturday's game against the Blues in Wellington."
Really liked Bulls at first glance but they have a mounting injury list now "The Bulls have further injury worries with Schalk Brits and Marco van Staden both suffering concussion in their final 24-all draw on the tour in Dunedin against the Highlanders, meaning both are unlikely to be available for selection this coming weekend.
Add to that an ankle injury to Burger Odendaal and coach Pote Human may well have to do some shuffling for the coming weekend’s starting line-up before naming the side to take on the Lions."
Any word on Duane?
Depending on other results both Bulls and Lions may be able to control their fate on the ladder, finishing 6th actually looks more advantageous than finishing 5th, away vs Brumbies rather than Canes. You can never know if teams would throw a game in these situations though.
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- threepeat
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4 years 10 months ago #8
by threepeat
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Chiefs (-6.5)
Points Start (a)
Rebels v Chiefs
@ 2.87
Can do nothing wrong at the moment.
Big wins on Jags, Clermont & Toulouse.
Joining the forum thread on Chiefs but going for more $!
Shout out to Couch for Masirewa anytime try last weekend which supercharged multis @ 3.60. Thank you Sir.
Points Start (a)
Rebels v Chiefs
@ 2.87
Can do nothing wrong at the moment.
Big wins on Jags, Clermont & Toulouse.
Joining the forum thread on Chiefs but going for more $!
Shout out to Couch for Masirewa anytime try last weekend which supercharged multis @ 3.60. Thank you Sir.
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4 years 10 months ago #9
by RuggaBugga
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
I've taken more Landers -10.5
Mack Mason set to be starting at 10, he was awful in the game vs the Sunwolves! Add the fact that Kepu, Hooper, Simmons, Foley and Beale are out. Landers have outside chance of qualifying with a BP win and thats exactly what they should do!
Last game in 2017 in NZ with full strength Tahs saw the Landers win 44-28!
GOLDEN!!!!!!!
Mack Mason set to be starting at 10, he was awful in the game vs the Sunwolves! Add the fact that Kepu, Hooper, Simmons, Foley and Beale are out. Landers have outside chance of qualifying with a BP win and thats exactly what they should do!
Last game in 2017 in NZ with full strength Tahs saw the Landers win 44-28!
GOLDEN!!!!!!!
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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4 years 10 months ago #10
by ThoughtsOnSports
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Replied by ThoughtsOnSports on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Where is 10.5 still available?
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4 years 10 months ago #11
by RuggaBugga
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Just got at BetX, see its moved to -12.5
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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4 years 10 months ago #12
by coil
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Brents predicted caps , mine done after some news checking on rested players etc .. mine to the right
Highlanders -14.5 v Waratahs minus 15.5
Rebels +7.5 v Chiefs plus 6.5
Jaguares -22.5 v Sunwolves minus 18.5
Hurricanes -7.5 v Blues minus 11.5
Brumbies -9.5 v Reds minus 12.5
Stormers -5.5 v Sharks minus 6.5
Bulls -7.5 v Lions minus 6.5
Highlanders -14.5 v Waratahs minus 15.5
Rebels +7.5 v Chiefs plus 6.5
Jaguares -22.5 v Sunwolves minus 18.5
Hurricanes -7.5 v Blues minus 11.5
Brumbies -9.5 v Reds minus 12.5
Stormers -5.5 v Sharks minus 6.5
Bulls -7.5 v Lions minus 6.5
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4 years 10 months ago #13
by landrews77
Replied by landrews77 on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
RuggaBugga wrote: Landers -10.5
Chiefs W
Bulls W
GOLDEN!!!!!!!!
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4 years 10 months ago #17
by mackem
twitter: @goodforthegame
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Many thanks to Couch Critic for this week's edition of Post Match Scuffle .... Out with Botha in with Bruce Lee
www.goodforthegame.co.za/Couch-Critic/po...-with-bruce-lee.html
www.goodforthegame.co.za/Couch-Critic/po...-with-bruce-lee.html
twitter: @goodforthegame
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4 years 10 months ago #18
by davopnz
Replied by davopnz on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Great news for the Bulls, Vermeulen, Kriel, Gelant, Specman all back. I thought Kriel was meant to be out much longer.
Brits sounds a long shot, Odendaal 50/50. Still should be a very strong team however.
Brits sounds a long shot, Odendaal 50/50. Still should be a very strong team however.
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4 years 10 months ago #19
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Those who watched the projection video and were lurking on the forum early are likely on the -10.5 Highlanders but for those that missed it I feel the HT cap could be worth a play -
Highlanders v Waratahs Preview
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4 years 10 months ago #20
by ThoughtsOnSports
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Replied by ThoughtsOnSports on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
As the early value seems to have subsided and the prices are accurate, I am starting to really like the Blues +11.5. Blues have been inconsistent this season but have beaten the cap in NZ derbies 4/5 times this season.
Canes have confirmed they are resting players so will be without the likes of Laumape, TJ, Ardie.
Canes have confirmed they are resting players so will be without the likes of Laumape, TJ, Ardie.
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4 years 10 months ago #21
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
I am a bit surprised the Rebels are still favourites and the Chiefs are my preview punt at BetoLimp -
Rebels v Chiefs preview
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4 years 10 months ago #22
by threepeat
I am more than a bit surprised, I am in shock that Rebels are favourites and happy to harvest the low fruit.
Only explanation is that TAB NZ odds now set by Paddy Power Betfair, and not Kiwi punters.
The return of Genia/ Q Cooper does make a big difference However since the return of AB Sam Cane in better than expected form after his neck injury in SA last year, leadership and results and belief have had a huge "Chiefs Mana" boost. Add to that the return of Big Bad Brodie and Rebels will be thinking they are playing a Crusader pack again!
There is a 50% chance of rain showers in Melbourne Friday afternoon. I see no home field advantage. Melbourne Victoria is more like NZ conditions than the States the Rebels players come from :- )
Gone big already on Chiefs, added Chiefs -6.5, and now adding a touch of Chiefs 13+ Recommended to the Oracle "Granny Fund"
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Brent Graham wrote: I am a bit surprised the Rebels are still favourites and the Chiefs are my preview punt at BetoLimp - Rebels v Chiefs preview
I am more than a bit surprised, I am in shock that Rebels are favourites and happy to harvest the low fruit.
Only explanation is that TAB NZ odds now set by Paddy Power Betfair, and not Kiwi punters.
The return of Genia/ Q Cooper does make a big difference However since the return of AB Sam Cane in better than expected form after his neck injury in SA last year, leadership and results and belief have had a huge "Chiefs Mana" boost. Add to that the return of Big Bad Brodie and Rebels will be thinking they are playing a Crusader pack again!
There is a 50% chance of rain showers in Melbourne Friday afternoon. I see no home field advantage. Melbourne Victoria is more like NZ conditions than the States the Rebels players come from :- )
Gone big already on Chiefs, added Chiefs -6.5, and now adding a touch of Chiefs 13+ Recommended to the Oracle "Granny Fund"
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4 years 10 months ago #23
by threepeat
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I have missed the bus for the early game on Friday. LIne has moved with Tahs Wallaby announcement. 90% chance of rain in Invercargill on Friday!
I think young Tahs will step up, and Landers know Chiefs will win in Melbourne and that they cannot qualify for playoffs. Tahs a long way from Sydney, but Landers a long way from there covered stadium in Dunedin.
NO BET. Keep the powder dry.
I think young Tahs will step up, and Landers know Chiefs will win in Melbourne and that they cannot qualify for playoffs. Tahs a long way from Sydney, but Landers a long way from there covered stadium in Dunedin.
NO BET. Keep the powder dry.
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4 years 10 months ago #24
by CLrugby
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Maddock and Coleman both out for the Rebels, Chiefs lineup is massive with confirmed returns of Retallick and Harris + Debreceny / Weber on the 9-10 paring. Nothing wrong with that team with their best starting XV of the season and a solid bench. My only fear is the Australian ref that will favor the Rebels but @2 Chiefs are a massive value here.
@Chris_Lacharge
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4 years 10 months ago #25
by RuggaBugga
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
landrews77 wrote:
RuggaBugga wrote: Landers -10.5
Chiefs W
Bulls W
GOLDEN!!!!!!!!
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4 years 10 months ago #26
by Scoembo
Have to agree with you Threepeat. It's not like the Tahs made wholesale changes. There's 5 guys out and Jack Dempsey's returning from the bench so they lost 5 wallabies and got one back and AA Cooper is still there as well as Phipps and other senior players so they still have experienced players on the park. Highlanders also not at their best
Replied by Scoembo on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
threepeat wrote: I have missed the bus for the early game on Friday. LIne has moved with Tahs Wallaby announcement. 90% chance of rain in Invercargill on Friday!
I think young Tahs will step up, and Landers know Chiefs will win in Melbourne and that they cannot qualify for playoffs. Tahs a long way from Sydney, but Landers a long way from there covered stadium in Dunedin.
NO BET. Keep the powder dry.
Have to agree with you Threepeat. It's not like the Tahs made wholesale changes. There's 5 guys out and Jack Dempsey's returning from the bench so they lost 5 wallabies and got one back and AA Cooper is still there as well as Phipps and other senior players so they still have experienced players on the park. Highlanders also not at their best
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4 years 10 months ago #27
by southpaw
added Chiefs 1st to 20pts @ just over 11/10
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
southpaw wrote: totally agree and just read Brodie back this week as well.
Climbed into Chiefs win @ evens.
added Chiefs 1st to 20pts @ just over 11/10
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4 years 10 months ago #28
by threepeat
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Just read Ben "from the office" Smith not back from injury to play Tahs.
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4 years 10 months ago #29
by Scoembo
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Not sure about the rest of the games but put a double down on Chiefs -1.5 and Tahs +19
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4 years 10 months ago #30
by threepeat
Scoembo, bet the Granny fund on the Chiefs, but keep your double to a unit or no units. Game is completely unpredictable. Liam Squire back from hell and last chance to be seen by AB selectors. Young Tah bucks looking for SR rugby contract (and getting away from Darrell Gibbo). Invercargill has been described by the Rolling Stones as the ass end of the world, and with 90 % rain game is going to be hell with rain, Landers play under a heated stadium LOL in Dunnie.
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Scoembo wrote: Not sure about the rest of the games but put a double down on Chiefs -1.5 and Tahs +19
Scoembo, bet the Granny fund on the Chiefs, but keep your double to a unit or no units. Game is completely unpredictable. Liam Squire back from hell and last chance to be seen by AB selectors. Young Tah bucks looking for SR rugby contract (and getting away from Darrell Gibbo). Invercargill has been described by the Rolling Stones as the ass end of the world, and with 90 % rain game is going to be hell with rain, Landers play under a heated stadium LOL in Dunnie.
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4 years 10 months ago - 4 years 10 months ago #31
by Scoembo
Replied by Scoembo on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
All valid points Threepeat but with the exception of the Blues and Wolves games the Landers havent won any game by more than 5 points this year. Ive played in Invercargil and if memory serves me correctly the pitch is smaller than forsyth barr. This fact coupled with the rain and Landers history makes me swing towards the Tahs on the cap. Landers scores a lot but they also let in the odd try or two.
Last edit: 4 years 10 months ago by Scoembo.
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4 years 10 months ago #32
by threepeat
Good to have a fellow Kiwi on the site. Saffas have no chance in this competition called Super this year LOL
Scoembo I actually agree with your bet on Tahs +19.5, but putting my money on chiefs game instead, risk reward not enough. No one wants to play in Cargill. Anything could happen.
FYI They relocated the pitch you and put in real drainage.
Me, I played for Canterbury U20 at Carisbrook, after a weird night at the Captain Cook. Rained and I had one run, and three offers from ChCh clubs!.
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Scoembo wrote: All valid points Threepeat but with the exception of the Blues and Wolves games the Landers have
not won any game by more than 5 points this year. Ive played in Invercargil and if memory serves me correctly the pitch is smaller than forsyth barr. This fact coupled with the rain and Landers history makes me swing towards the Tahs on the cap. Landers scores a lot but they also let in the odd try or two.
Good to have a fellow Kiwi on the site. Saffas have no chance in this competition called Super this year LOL
Scoembo I actually agree with your bet on Tahs +19.5, but putting my money on chiefs game instead, risk reward not enough. No one wants to play in Cargill. Anything could happen.
FYI They relocated the pitch you and put in real drainage.
Me, I played for Canterbury U20 at Carisbrook, after a weird night at the Captain Cook. Rained and I had one run, and three offers from ChCh clubs!.
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4 years 10 months ago #33
by Scoembo
Replied by Scoembo on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Haha Sorry Threepeat but Im actually a Saffa. Just had the privilege of playing for the Magpies for 2 years so got to see a bit of Kiwi land which was pretty awesome. Have lots of mates over there still and even some Saffas that immigrated.
Good to hear Invercargil got a pitch upgrade. The big ol Whopper would be proud and so would Jimmy Cowan. Anyway Ive backed Landers too many times on the cap and been disappointed so Up The Tahs!!
Good to hear Invercargil got a pitch upgrade. The big ol Whopper would be proud and so would Jimmy Cowan. Anyway Ive backed Landers too many times on the cap and been disappointed so Up The Tahs!!
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4 years 10 months ago #34
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
I think the Jaguares come out firing and gone for another HT cap -
Jaguares v Sunwolves preview
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4 years 10 months ago #35
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Agree with the sentiment on the Blues + and actually think they could shock us all and win - have stuck to a handicap play in the preview though
Hurricanes v Blues preview
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4 years 10 months ago #36
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Brumbies v Reds
is probably the one game I wouldn't mind missing but I have a small fancy for the home team to dominate the match for the 5th year running
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4 years 10 months ago #37
by Scoembo
Just put another double down on Chiefs - 1.5 onto Blues to win on the board. Blues have SBW back and except for their props they are picking their strongest side. Hurricanes have no Barret in sight and TJ and Ardie on the bench.
Blues to win paying 3.7 at Sportingbet
Should move pretty quickly after the team namings
Replied by Scoembo on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Brent Graham wrote: Agree with the sentiment on the Blues + and actually think they could shock us all and win - have stuck to a handicap play in the preview though Hurricanes v Blues preview
Just put another double down on Chiefs - 1.5 onto Blues to win on the board. Blues have SBW back and except for their props they are picking their strongest side. Hurricanes have no Barret in sight and TJ and Ardie on the bench.
Blues to win paying 3.7 at Sportingbet
Should move pretty quickly after the team namings
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4 years 10 months ago #38
by mackem
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The Handicap Super Rugby Round 18 preview live from 21:00 on Thursday night
If you wish to comment on the show whilst it is live, please use this link to our Youtube channel
If you wish to comment on the show whilst it is live, please use this link to our Youtube channel
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4 years 10 months ago #39
by The Vann
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Writing down weekend matches for my usual 50% Superbru results and don't see a locked in away win. As a footie punter always fancy home teams anyway so
Seven home wins @ 13/1
Seven home wins @ 13/1
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- bradie82
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4 years 10 months ago - 4 years 10 months ago #40
by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Seems like the weather won’t be that wet tomorrow at Invercargill as the cut opened at 54.5 points @ 1.85 and 7.5 tries @ 1.66
Edit: Even found 58.5 and 8.5 tries both @ 1.85
Edit: Even found 58.5 and 8.5 tries both @ 1.85
Last edit: 4 years 10 months ago by bradie82.
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- mackem
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4 years 10 months ago #41
by mackem
twitter: @goodforthegame
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Couch Critic's preview and best bets for every match in Super Rugby Round 18
goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...ound-18-preview.html
goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...ound-18-preview.html
twitter: @goodforthegame
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- Brent Graham
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4 years 10 months ago #42
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
From what I have seen on Twitter conditions will be tough with or without rain - gone u18.5 Waratahs 17/20 at GGG
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4 years 10 months ago #43
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Final previews for the weekend
Bulls v Lions - I am on the early 8/10 Bulls outright but agree with Rugga and Couch that the -4.5 remains a good bet
Stormers v Sharks = I suspect this will be close, considered the 1-12 options but have settled for either team, by 7 or less
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Bulls v Lions - I am on the early 8/10 Bulls outright but agree with Rugga and Couch that the -4.5 remains a good bet
Stormers v Sharks = I suspect this will be close, considered the 1-12 options but have settled for either team, by 7 or less
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if you are not already on board
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4 years 10 months ago #44
by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Waratahs under 18.5
Chiefs over 25.5
Double @ 5/2
Chiefs over 25.5
Double @ 5/2
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4 years 10 months ago #45
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Like that one Paw - final bet for me though as seriously exposed on this one now
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4 years 10 months ago #46
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Really wish I hadn't seen this but Hollywood go 58.5 pts and have gone unders - pressure on this game immense and I cannot even watch
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4 years 10 months ago #47
by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Think the cap was too big for a Landers team that leak quite a bit.
Tahs +20 @ 1.91
Main bet is the Chiefs + posted earlier
Have added Chiefs HT/FT @ 2.75
Tahs +20 @ 1.91
Main bet is the Chiefs + posted earlier
Have added Chiefs HT/FT @ 2.75
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4 years 10 months ago #48
by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
added - Highlanders win both halves onto Chiefs win @ 2/1
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4 years 10 months ago #49
by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
Rebels vs Chiefs
Over 50.5 @ 1.81
Try before 15” @ 1.60
Over 50.5 @ 1.81
Try before 15” @ 1.60
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4 years 10 months ago #50
by southpaw
covered stake on Tahs over 12.5pts, looking for a middle.
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 18 + other rugby
southpaw wrote: Waratahs under 18.5
Chiefs over 25.5
Double @ 5/2
covered stake on Tahs over 12.5pts, looking for a middle.
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