Cycling : The Tour de France
- The Vann
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Match bets
Bernal over Kruiswijk @ 15/10
Uran over Mas @ 13/10
and have to take a few beers on
1-3
De Gendt @ 25/1
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- kt6747
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All the best with your selections guys.
Hope they come flying home.
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- kt6747
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The Vann wrote: I see Tommy dG is not in the top 20 on most boards for today - what rubbish. Should finish well inside top 10. Scrolling through the match bets would make Bernal's match up choice and Uran at around even against Mas so worth a dip at the odds.
Match bets
Bernal over Kruiswijk @ 15/10
Uran over Mas @ 13/10
and have to take a few beers on
1-3
De Gendt @ 25/1
Vann. 25/1 for top 3 looks great at moment. Hope you got some wins as think he will be tough to beat.
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- The Vann
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kt6747 wrote:
The Vann wrote: I see Tommy dG is not in the top 20 on most boards for today - what rubbish. Should finish well inside top 10. Scrolling through the match bets would make Bernal's match up choice and Uran at around even against Mas so worth a dip at the odds.
Match bets
Bernal over Kruiswijk @ 15/10
Uran over Mas @ 13/10
and have to take a few beers on
1-3
De Gendt @ 25/1
Vann. 25/1 for top 3 looks great at moment. Hope you got some wins as think he will be tough to beat.
Only took the 1-3. Was cursing some but pleased two guys beat him. Closest bet I've made on cycling - 0.28 seconds to 4th.
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- Brent Graham
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Unbelievable Alaphilipe
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- mackem
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Saturday 3 guys who look overpriced each way bets
Wilco Kelderman 200/1
Xandro Meurisse150/1
Steven Kruijswijk 40/1
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- Brent Graham
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0.5 u Mas 40/1
0.5 u Bachmann 50/1
2 u Aru/Bennett at 5/4
28 u Alaphilippe Tour Podium NO at 4/10 (had 60 units in account but only allowed to get 28 down at Sporting - pity cause I think this is put and take)
Disclaimer: Remember the Matthews bet - follow at own risk
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- southpaw
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Uran 40/1
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- The Vann
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Porte over Landa @ 38/10
Two from GC today
Win
Pinot @ 11/2
1-3
Buchmann @ 8/1
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- Couch Critic
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My plays:
Zakarin @ 50/1 (taken last night)
Aru @ 50/1
Guillaume Martin @ 97/1
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- The Vann
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- mackem
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Have reinvested the place returns from Kruijswijk's excellent ride yesterday accordingly with 3 each way bets.
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- Brent Graham
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Stage Bet:
0.5 u Haig win 25/1
1 u Pinot win at 7/1
0.5 u Keldermann 100/1
KOM:
5 units Pinot top 3 at 6/4 Sunbet
1 unit Barguil win 18/1 WSB
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- Brent Graham
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I may be remembering this TDF for all the wrong reasons
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- southpaw
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Costa 66/1
Bardet 40/1
Ciccone 28/1
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- The Vann
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e/w
Haig @ 25/1
Win - My Belgium picks
De Gendt @ 33/1
Teuns @ 75/1
Meurisse @ 189/1
As the final few km's are a perfect Alaphilppe finish
Alaphilippe over Pinot @ 7/4
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- The Vann
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Win
Yates S @ 5/1
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- Brent Graham
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- The Vann
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Brent Graham wrote: Nice in running play Vann - what a great stage and this race is wide open
Yeah. Managed to get out of that stage even. Would fancy Pinot for the tour but the predicted temperatures of 38 dgrs for the Alps worry me - He does not like the heat. Probably a coin toss between the two Ineos guys for the overall.
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- The Vann
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Yellow Jersey
Thomas came in under cooked owing to the crash in Swiss Tour. He may be better in week three. Bernal at 22 years old has never been in a third week of a Grand Tour. Temperatures for tomorrow forecast at 39 C and expected to hold through the Alps. - Pinot does not handle the heat.
Win
Thomas @ 15/4
Mountains Jersey
They asked S Yates if he is going for this jersey - He said no - but then he would. If he goes, in my opinion, he wins it.
Win
S Yates @ 11/2
Team Competition
Here is one of Vann's famous theories. Quintana is leaving for Arkea in the off season. I have never seen him criticised by anyone at Movistar but Valverde had a go at him a few days ago and Landa was scathing (quite rightly so) for his total lack of effort on stage 15 when Landa came past. This is not a happy camp. On stage 15 Landa, Valverde and Quintana were counting times. Soler finished 19 minutes down. Stages 18/19/20 all run well over 2,000 m and Valverde clutches at around 1,900 m. If Quintana pulls a sulk the half hour advantage they have on Ineos will not be enough. Ineos will go for the team prize on the last two stages if they feel they are close enough (just a matter of telling 3rd rider to ride in)
Win
Ineos @ 22/1
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- southpaw
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4 units Bernal outright @ 9/2
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- Brent Graham
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0.5 u Politt win at 200/1 Hollies
0.5 u Narsen win at 125/1 Hollies
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- The Vann
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Sagan @ 6/1
Bettiol @ 300/1
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- Brent Graham
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- Couch Critic
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Barnal should enjoy the altitude but he also looked at times to be right on his limit and as Vann says he has talent rather than experience to fall back on.
Buchmann has been one of the finds of the tour but whilst he has done well to follow I don't see him grabbing the race by the scruff of the neck and putting himself right in contention.
Kruisjwijk has bee impressive - to me Jumbo Visma have far and away been the team of the race. Again though we started to see a few little cracks from the Dutchman on the highest slopes and things are about to get even nastier for him - I reckon he blows on Friday.
Pinot is looking great and boy must he be cursing those crosswinds. He has worked his ass off to try and claw back some time but somehow I fear there's just one stage where he can't keep climbing as he has and that throws the ball back into the court of the Ineos pair.
Thomas has me well and truly scratching my head. On two occasions now he couldn't keep pace with the top lads. Yet he has done well to not panic and just settle back down into his own rhythm and get to the line in the best way possible for me (in true Sky fashion).
So clearly you can see that I offer no real input on the outright apart from saying I'm clueless. I have some coin on Pinot but at this stage am leaning toward Bernal to push the others at altitude and break free to win the race.
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- mackem
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Again - who the hell knows whats going to happen. We might just see three straight breakaway victories over the next three stages!
As most have said in their pre stage views. The likes of Jumbo Visma and DQS have bigger fish to fry and might not worry about doing any chasing. Sagan has green in the bag and also could get in the break which would take Bora out the mix as well. Lotto Soudal, perhaps Bahrain and even UAE could do the chasing if they don't have a break representative. (Sunweb must surely be done with putting in all the effort for no reward).
So, my feeling is a sprint between a few breakaway riders:
Matthews @ 44/1 (Reckon he dearly wants a win)
Trentin @ 48/1 (No team duties and strong enough to make the break)
Stuyven @ 67/1 (Will out-sprint most in a reduced dice)
Mohoric @ 124/1 (Can't have him winning a stage without my money on)
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- The Vann
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e/w
Trentin @ 17/1
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I will stick to my exact same selections for Stage 17 here as I feel the reasoning remains unchanged. Prices willl however come in significantly. Reckon Astana will also go all out for a win tomorrow after their double setback today.
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- mackem
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Wednesday picks
Lutsenko 22/1
Impey 40/1
Feline 50/1
Pollit 50/1
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- Brent Graham
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1 u Trentin 12/1
0.5 u Bettiol 50/1
2 u winning distance 2 sec or more at 17/10
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- Brent Graham
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- Couch Critic
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Love Trentin but have him in my fantasy team whilst few other have so will be delighted if he wins!
I reckon Matthews will be super keen today but jeez he's short.
Mohoric @ 24/1
Lutsenko @ 25/1
Stuyven @ 36/1
Valgren @ 70/1
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- The Vann
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- Brent Graham
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Couch you beauty - no 1 globally - I am no longer riding against you but will assume domestique duties
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Well done on the bet lads - super glad he finally got that win.
I like to get my own bets down before checking Will and the rest of Twitter...
Keeping it rather simple tomorrow - reckon Landa is in a league of his own in the steep stuff.
Stage 18:
Landa @ 9/1
Barguil @ 32/1
Jack Haig @ 42/1
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- Brent Graham
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This is a stage I am struggling to pic - a couple of small interests and then my main interest a match bet treble
0.5 u Quintana win at 33/1 Sunbet
0.5 u Lutsenko win at 28/1 WSB
2 units at 28/10 WSB
Lutsenko/Bilbao
G Martin/Kreuziger
Valverde/Alaphilippe
Video preview and update below
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Win
S Yates @ 21/4
Top 3
Barguil @ 9/1
Zakarin @ 15/1
and a match bet double to cover above stakes if it goes pear shaped
Zakarin over Nibali into
Aru over Martin @ 5/2
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- Couch Critic
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The Yates boys, Nibali and Bardet are very good going downhill but I really am concerned for Pinot today! Ala is the best of the lot and if the GC teams don't all help to push the pace he might even kick us in the teeth (still reckon he loses big time in the following two days).
Taking who I believe to be the better down-hillers:
Landa over Pinot @ 18/10
Ala P over Valverde @ evens (opposing Brent here)
Nibali over Zakarin @ 11/10 (hoping Nibs is feeling good so opposing Vann as the Zak will do well to stay upright)
Buchmann over Kruijswijk @ 910
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- The Vann
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Barguil over Quintana into
Alaphilippe over Valverde @ 17/10
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- Brent Graham
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Have not looked at outright betting and well done Ala but I still believe he will crack
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- The Vann
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A little late on the thanks to Brent but ran with that 2 seconds on stage 17 which made it a brilliant stage all round.
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Movi all of a sudden have 3 guys within 6 mins of Ala and within 5 of the others so they have a few jokers up their sleeve to play and really crack open the race in a big way. By far the strongest team around they have dictated terms without doubt. Again all eyes will be on them tomorrow (despite their best placed rider only being in 7th place overall).
Ineos just dont look to have their regular power and control to dish out the pain and finally bury Ala P. Even FDJ might find it tougher than in the Pyrenees and one might start to wonder whether some grande French conspiracy might not be whispered around so as to stop the French team from really going all out to smash the current yellow jersey holder. As per usual with grand tour rides you also get to a point of self preservation and thus Jumbo V and Bora will in all likelihood revert to heads down and just hold on. Thus it really could be all down to Movistar to make a real race of this!
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Went with him today and his team mate did the business but reckon there is only one win play for me tomorrow: Movi to smash the pace at the front and burn the others away before Landa launches for the win whilst the top five sans Ala look at each other and wonder who dares have a go but happy enough to settle for taking time on the Frenchie.
To win Stage 19:
Landa @ 19/2
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- Brent Graham
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Just a small interest for me in the outrights
0.5u Barguil win at 33/1
In the match bets I like this double at 9/2
2 units Poels/Mas (1.75/1) - both domestics but expect Poels to be up there while Mas hopefully stays with a broken Ala
onto
Barguil/Ala (1/1) - 11/10 at WS but the double works out slightly better at Hollywood
Here is the video preview
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- southpaw
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I’m not as up to speed as others but when I posted my bet on Bernal outright @ 9/2 I expected that Ineos would back him as soon as Thomas struggled, but reading reports last night i can’t get a clear picture - are they going to let him attack today or is he still riding for Thomas?
I see he’s now outright favourite around 6/4, so hoping this is a good sign. Just worried he’s not allowed to do his own thing today. Anyone have a clearer view?
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- mackem
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South - I've backed Bernal to win the stage today, think its short enough and GC will try and break Alla today so hopefully he will be strongest. Nibbled at Jack Haig today as well just in case a break does stick but strongly favour a GC battle for stage win.
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- The Vann
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southpaw wrote: Well done yesterday lads.
I’m not as up to speed as others but when I posted my bet on Bernal outright @ 9/2 I expected that Ineos would back him as soon as Thomas struggled, but reading reports last night i can’t get a clear picture - are they going to let him attack today or is he still riding for Thomas?
I see he’s now outright favourite around 6/4, so hoping this is a good sign. Just worried he’s not allowed to do his own thing today. Anyone have a clearer view?
The team cars carry spare bikes in slots on the roof. These slots are numbered with slot No 1 being the outside slot above the door the mechanic gets out of ie the slot he can get to the quickest. Since stage 16 Bernal's spare bike has been in this slot. Maybe an indication of team thinking?
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- The Vann
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Pinot @ 29/4
Thomas @ 23/2
keep losing one leg in my match bet doubles so just two singles today
Kruijswick over Buchmann @ evens
Aru over G Martin @ 16/10
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