Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

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2 weeks 8 hours ago #51 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
thanks for sharing. Interesting consderation for tournament total pts and tries markets. I've been waiting for these eagerly, keen to see what bookies make of expected humid/slippery ball conditions.

At moment a play on unders seems obvious choice, let's see how much homework bookies do or if they base more on past RWC.

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2 weeks 8 hours ago #52 by BDub

southpaw wrote: thanks for sharing. Interesting consderation for tournament total pts and tries markets. I've been waiting for these eagerly, keen to see what bookies make of expected humid/slippery ball conditions.

At moment a play on unders seems obvious choice, let's see how much homework bookies do or if they base more on past RWC.


Yeah will be very interesting. Between the humidity and possible rain could cause havoc for points punters. Big handicaps could also be problematic.

Just hoping the humidity drops quickly towards the end of September as they head towards their winter months.

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1 week 6 days ago #53 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

southpaw wrote: thanks for sharing. Interesting consderation for tournament total pts and tries markets. I've been waiting for these eagerly, keen to see what bookies make of expected humid/slippery ball conditions.

At moment a play on unders seems obvious choice, let's see how much homework bookies do or if they base more on past RWC.


Agreed, though have to keep any eye out on their terms for "void" matches, e.g. could be a points allocation or void if x games not played. Hopefully there will be plenty of markets for perusal as we get closer to the start.

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1 week 4 days ago #54 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

southpaw wrote: right lads i'll get the ball rolling -

Argentina +3.5 @ 9/10 and 29/20 win vs France.

Have the cap in various doubles around 5/2 or so, slowly built up last month or 2. I put up the Argies on a thread a while back, just cannot have France as favourites for this. Argies will come in battle hardened from Rugby Champs and have bonus of being allowed to select some Euro based players for first time in years.

Argentina 40/1 outright. No brainer bet for me when you look at price of likes of Wales, Boks both under 10/1. Scotland 33/1, what?!! Pumas great value.

Finalists NZ v Ireland @ 7/2. I took this about 6 months ago, less confident given above but being transparent. It's around 5/1 now.

NZ bt Ire in final @ 13/1. As above taken before 6 nations, less confident but i never know.

Top Tryscorer Sevu Reece 18/1. Okay not even confirmed an All Black yet but writing on the wall, and can't see him not being in squad. Perfect All Black winger - tackles, scores, works.

Lastly, not taken this yet but might do this week - Italy -19 @ 10/11 vs Nambia game 1. Namibia have no proper warmups scheduled, they stick out like a sore thumb. Team just hasn't moved on with professional era, and i believe not going to be playing in the SA domestic comp either? Not good. Now Italy are hard to trust, but am very tempted here.


Have added Sevu Reece top 4 @ 5/2 with sunbet. Absolute gift.

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1 week 4 days ago #55 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

BDub wrote: Just a quick heads up. Weather could be a huge factor at the WC and could be worthwhile waiting closer to games to see what the weather does. I have some small bets down but this has been my worry.


William Hill is proposing any game to end up 0-0 @ 51
Definitely worth a tenner I reckon even if not certain of the bookie rule

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1 week 3 days ago - 1 week 3 days ago #56 by BDub
Typhoon Faxai already causing chaos. Aussies are unable to fly into Japan and I think will delay a lot of other teams. My main concern is obviously rain but then the conditions of the pitches.
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1 week 3 days ago #57 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
SPIN up with a few totals markets; total points at 2475-2625 (just over 53 per game based on the mid point), total drop goals 4.5 to 5 and total yellow cards 55-60. I'm waiting for a spread on total kicking metres, after doing ok with a sell of that market in the 6 Nations.

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1 week 3 days ago #58 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

southpaw wrote: Have added Sevu Reece top 4 @ 5/2 with sunbet. Absolute gift.


Just noticed that price is available with Unibet/888 for anyone who likes the look of it. Have taken their 10/1 for him outright with a 50% odds boost. Occasionally get those to low stakes so using them for RWC outrights in the run up to the tournament.

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1 week 3 days ago #59 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Guys on tonights Use it or Lose it live at 21h00 we are going to be looking closely at Groups A and B - Click here to join us


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1 week 3 days ago #60 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

harry_rag wrote: SPIN up with a few totals markets; total points at 2475-2625 (just over 53 per game based on the mid point).


Probably short that based on dodgy weather affecting both handling and stamina together with the 0-0 possibilities and the 48 games in 2015 produced 2,439 points if my calculator is still working.

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1 week 2 days ago #61 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Apparently; "If a pool match kicks off, but is abandoned during the first half, it will be ruled as a draw with teams keeping any scores and bonus points accrued.

If it is abandoned from half-time onwards, the scoreline will stand as the result."

inews.co.uk/news/environment/typhoon-fax...ugby-world-cup-2019/

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1 week 2 days ago #62 by Tarka

harry_rag wrote: Apparently; "If a pool match kicks off, but is abandoned during the first half, it will be ruled as a draw with teams keeping any scores and bonus points accrued.

If it is abandoned from half-time onwards, the scoreline will stand as the result."

inews.co.uk/news/environment/typhoon-fax...ugby-world-cup-2019/


So most bookies bets on those games will be null and void? Everything except for first try scorer or HT handicap if they do finish the first half.
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1 week 2 days ago #63 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
That's a good point, I was thinking more from the perspective of outright betting but it could cause chaos with betting on individual matches! I've cooked up this as a possible strategy, not sure if it has any merits, allowing for the possibility of some one-sided games ending up as "draws" and skewing the standings.

The spreads for the 4 pool indices award 50 points to the winner then 30, 20, 10 and 0 down to 5th place. You can buy the 8 group "rags" at a collective price of 51 (Samoa, Russia, Canada, Namibia, Tonga, USA, Georgia and Uruguay).

Worst case scenario is an 11 point loss if all 8 teams occupy the bottom two spots in their respective groups. Should just one of those teams manage 3rd place your worst case scenario is a 1 point loss and 2 would mean at least a 9 point profit. Is there enough scope for weather related chaos to justify a buy at 51, risking a maximum loss of 11 times your unit stake?

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1 week 2 days ago - 1 week 2 days ago #64 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

harry_rag wrote: That's a good point, I was thinking more from the perspective of outright betting but it could cause chaos with betting on individual matches! I've cooked up this as a possible strategy, not sure if it has any merits, allowing for the possibility of some one-sided games ending up as "draws" and skewing the standings.

The spreads for the 4 pool indices award 50 points to the winner then 30, 20, 10 and 0 down to 5th place. You can buy the 8 group "rags" at a collective price of 51 (Samoa, Russia, Canada, Namibia, Tonga, USA, Georgia and Uruguay).

Worst case scenario is an 11 point loss if all 8 teams occupy the bottom two spots in their respective groups. Should just one of those teams manage 3rd place your worst case scenario is a 1 point loss and 2 would mean at least a 9 point profit. Is there enough scope for weather related chaos to justify a buy at 51, risking a maximum loss of 11 times your unit stake?


Not a spread I would take. The up-side is just too short. Weather would need to affect selected matches ie possible 3rd and 4th placed sides which gives your "rag"a shot on points difference. It's going to make no difference if Ireland v Samoa is rained off during the match - they still have to beat Japan to make 3rd. Given a level playing field I would give only Samoa and Georgia an outside chance of upsetting the odds.
I would be more interested in a market like the total drop goals - down side 4.5- up side who knows.
Last edit: 1 week 2 days ago by The Vann.
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1 week 1 day ago #65 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Both spread firms have some tournament totals markets up now, here are the market prices you can buy or sell at.

Total points: 2600-2625

Total Tries: 310-317

Total Drop Goals: 7

Total Yellow Cards: 53-55

Total Red Cards: 3.5-3.75

Total Bookings Points: 610-625

Total Draws: 0.75-0.9

Total Ton-Ups: 17 (aggregate total of points >100 in an individual game)

Will be taking a closer look tomorrow.
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1 week 14 hours ago #66 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

harry_rag wrote: Both spread firms have some tournament totals markets up now, here are the market prices you can buy or sell at.

Total points: 2600-2625

Total Tries: 310-317

Total Drop Goals: 7

Total Yellow Cards: 53-55

Total Red Cards: 3.5-3.75

Total Bookings Points: 610-625

Total Draws: 0.75-0.9

Total Ton-Ups: 17 (aggregate total of points >100 in an individual game)

Will be taking a closer look tomorrow.


Initial thoughts are still shorting the total points. Spreads not out at my local book yet. I would guess that the Total Ton-Ups spread should be 1.7 - at 17 it's a no brainer.

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1 week 2 hours ago #67 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

The Vann wrote: [I would guess that the Total Ton-Ups spread should be 1.7 - at 17 it's a no brainer.


No, it was 17. Down to 12-15 with both firms now. Relates to the aggregate of all total points over 100, e.g. 3 games with totals of 108, 105 and 101 would give a total ton ups of 14.

SPIN lowered their drop goals quote and I've decided it's a buy at 6.75. Not much downside on that as it's been higher in the last 4 World Cups, albeit only 8 last time.

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6 days 11 hours ago #68 by mackem
Cracking effort from Couch Critic in his outright preview, loads of plays here, a good read.

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/rugby...ew-couch-critic.html

twitter: @goodforthegame
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6 days 9 hours ago #69 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

harry_rag wrote:
No, it was 17. Down to 12-15 with both firms now. Relates to the aggregate of all total points over 100, e.g. 3 games with totals of 108, 105 and 101 would give a total ton ups of 14.


I see the light - thought it was number of matches over a ton. I have not seen that type of spread offered in SA before. Only see four possibilities. Ireland or Scotland v Russia and NZ or SA v Namibia. First one up is SA v Namibia +- match 13 so I would leave spread until 28 Sep when weather/injuries and playing conditions can be assessed. Spread should have shortened a little by that time. If I felt lucky I would then buy the spread and hope for a ton match. If it arrives the chances are the books would increase the spread and I would sell and take the boodle. If the match comes up a little short I don't expect the spread to move so can always bale with the 3 point loss.

If my SA book comes up with the spreads you listed earlier I will be buying the draw at 0.9 and would seriously consider shorting that 2,600 points.
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6 days 4 hours ago #70 by Kirky

mackem wrote: Cracking effort from Couch Critic in his outright preview, loads of plays here, a good read.

Lovely content Couch,
You are a serious schemer of note.
I'm definitely going to follow you on some of those..
Thanks to the others for warning about the weather.
My thorts:
The Ruskies are tougher than the bookies are crediting them (+39.5);
Fiji will shock the Aussies;
France will slaughter the Argies;
SA has too many 'De Alendes' to trouble (much) the ABs (they don't have any weak spots);
The Italy minus is a gimme;
Wales will give the Georgians a cavity search..
This is going to be fun, and profitable...
Good luck guys,
Cheers.
Ahem.. Hanrick ? Trying to explain to some little Jap babe what a brannewyn en coke is ?
Come back soon, we need your tips :-)

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6 days 3 hours ago #71 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Cheers Kirky appreciate it!

Next week we will roll up the sleeves and get stuck into the games so it should be good fun and hopefully profitable for all involved.

This World Cup is going to be HUGE boys! And I have a feeling you might also be seeing our mugs a touch more often during the next month or two...

Happy hunting everyone!

Twitter: @HDiemont

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6 days 46 minutes ago #72 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Good read couch and welcome to the Sevu Reece club. Think he’s going to have a huge tournament.

1st 2 days acca -

Russia +39.5
Fiji +15.5
France -2.5
NZ -7.5

12.5/1

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6 days 13 minutes ago #73 by shaft
If you like Reece, Gbets have him priced @ 31/2

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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3 days 16 hours ago #74 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Sunbet out with total points and tries

Points 2615.5
Tries 315.5

I have gone unders in both markets

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3 days 13 hours ago #75 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

Brent Graham wrote: Sunbet out with total points and tries

Points 2615.5
Tries 315.5

I have gone unders in both markets


Thanks Brent. I can't figure how the the books are arriving at the points market. Weather is expected to be energy sapping and provision has been made for 0-0 draws if matches are called off. I looked at the two previous tournaments which ran on exactly the same format and points were 2,245 in 2011 and 2,439 in 2015. I will be taking several long odds outrights for small stakes but unders on the 2615.5 points line has been placed as my main outright.

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3 days 12 hours ago #76 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Just did a quick check on the main European bookies for the WC outright and quite few gaps tween them

Bet 365:
2560.5 points
307.5 tries
7.5 drop goals
52.5 yellow cards
3.5 red cards

William Hill:
314.5 tries
7.5 drop goals
232.5 successful conversions
188.5 successful penalties
52.5 yellow cards
3.5 red cards

Sky:
2625.5 points
318.5 tries
52.5 yellow cards
0.5 drawn match

888:
2615.5 points
315.5 tries
7.5 drop goals
52.5 yellow cards
3.5 red cards

Paddy Power:
2550.5 points
303.5 tries
180.5 successful penalties
7.5 drop goals
50.5 yellow cards
3.5 red cards

I like the over penalties here and the under points
In 2007, 178 were scored, 169 in 2011 and 229 in 2015
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3 days 11 hours ago #77 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Just done a very quick analysis but taking all cut from William hill – most have been updated since I posted
If all go over, that would give us a total of 2622 points when their cut for total is 2585.5
- 313 tries = 1565
- 189 penalties = 567
- 233 conversions = 466
- 8 drop goals = 24

But can’t see all of those going over so taking the under 2625.5 points with Skybet and will have a thought on the under 318.5 tries

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3 days 10 hours ago #78 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
I see a few of us are of a like mind in terms of looking at the totals markets and the prices available. That's my main task today. There will be a few detailed posts with prices and stats. Might help a few others and I'd welcome any thoughts if I've glossed over a price that someone thinks is a stonking bet!

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3 days 8 hours ago - 3 days 8 hours ago #79 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Ok, here we go! Spreads part one. Best price spread followed by average and stats from past 4 World Cups (most recent first) and brief thoughts on potential or actual bets.

Total Points : 2550-2575, Ave = 2499.25 (2439 - 2245 - 2478 - 2835)
Thoughts - share the consensus that this is a sell if anything but prefer to bet in other markets.

Total Tries: 305-315, Ave = 290.25 (271 - 262 - 296 - 332)
Thoughts - similar to points, again you're going back to 2003 to find the spread covered.

Total Penalty Tries: 9-10, Ave = 5 (6 - 4)
Thoughts - only got stats for 15 and 11, looks a bit high to me barring relevant rule changes but too low a price to be selling at.

Total Tryscorer shirts: 3500-3550
Thoughts - no stats and no feel for this one, posted in case of interest.

Total successful penalties: 182-192, Ave = 194.75 (224 - 171 - 178 - 206)
Thoughts: No strong view on this one.

Total successful conversions: 226-236, Ave = 207.5 (194 - 171 - 211 - 244)
Thoughts: Already sold this at 230. If the spreads were right about the number of tries then you'd still need the success rate to be slightly higher than it's been over the last 4 tournaments (ave = 71.5%).

Total drop goals: 7.5-7.25, Ave = 16.25 (8 - 20 - 14 - 23)
Thoughts: already bought at 6.75. Even allowing for the downward trend I don't think there's much downside to a buy at that price. Currently a slight arb on this market.

Total missed kicks: 122-132, Ave = 223.25 (152 - 235 - 222 - 284)
Thoughts: already bought at 130. This looks way too low to me, even if some of those stats look iffy (apparently the success rate for drop goals is really low and it would appear teams were pinging them in from all over the shop prior to 2015). If you exclude drop goals you still get an average of 166.5.

Total 50-ups: 440-460, Ave = 458.75 (328 - 386 - 474 - 647)
Thoughts: Potential sell if you think the points lines are too high anyway. Treat the stats with caution as I've just compiled them from ESPN while furiously stabbing at a calculator!

Total Ton-ups: 11, Ave = 21.75 (0 - 0 - 21 - 66)
Thoughts: This was 17 to buy or sell when I first posted the early numbers so obviously seen sellers. There are better ways to bet on low points totals but a low risk buy if you do still fancy a blow out or two. There have been just the 3 games seeing >100 points, 1 in 07 and 2 in 03.
Last edit: 3 days 8 hours ago by harry_rag. Reason: Minor typos
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3 days 6 hours ago #80 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Part 2!
Unused subs: 49-53 (57 in 2015)
Thoughts: I got a bit excited about this as a potential buy as I was piecing together what stats I could find until I realised that 2015 was the first time 8 subs were allowed. As it was a new development then I suspect teams will be more used to making use of 8 replacements so it's no bet for me.

Bookings points: 625-630, ave = 371.25 (555 - 230 - 400 - 300)
Yellow cards: 54-55, ave = 34 (53 - 18 - 35 - 30)
Red cards: 3.5-4, ave = 1.25 (1 - 2 - 2 - 0)
Thoughts: Total bookings points looks like a potential sell in the absence of anything that suggests an upsurge in cards this year. Red cards may be over-stated. I'll be mulling this one over before getting involved.

Total drawn games: 0.75-0.9, ave = 0.75 (0 - 1 - 1 - 1)
Thoughts: I've taken 6/5 for any drawn game with Lads. Not sure it should be odds against.

Total games won to nil: 2.96-2.9, ave = 2 (1 - 2 - 4 - 1)
I'm not quite comparing like with like here as Spreadex's market is actually based on 25 points per team scoring 0 so you could get 50 points in the event of a game ending 0-0 (not including abandoned games) but let's ignore that possibility. The Tote go 1/2 for any game to be won to nil and I think that's a good price but I can't quite bring myself to put the hefty bet on that would be required to make it worthwhile at the price.

Tryless matches: 0.75-0.95, ave 2 (1 - 3 - 3 - 1)
Thoughts: Not much downside but hardly an exciting prospect as a buy. Might keep any eye out for a fixed odds price that appeals.

One last post to come in terms of spreads, just a list of the remaining markets I've seen but without stats or comments.
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3 days 6 hours ago #81 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Final post on spreads, a round up of the other prices I've seen.

Winning distances: 1310-1355 (aggregate of all winning margins)
N Hemisphere/S Hemisphere: 120-140
Biggest winning margin: 91-96
Highest scoring game: 105-110
Lowest scoring game: 17-19.5
Fastest try (seconds): 75-78
Fastest drop goal (mins): 24-27
Fastest hat trick (mins): 33-36
Highest tries in a match: 15.5-16.5
Highest kicked pens in a match: 8.75-9.75
Highest shirts in a match: 212-220
Highest bookings points in a match: 48-53
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3 days 4 hours ago #82 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

harry_rag wrote: Final post on spreads, a round up of the other prices I've seen.

Winning distances: 1310-1355 (aggregate of all winning margins)
N Hemisphere/S Hemisphere: 120-140

Fastest drop goal (mins): 24-27


Harry - Got any more detail on the 120-140? If it's points differential in all tournament matches could be a runner.

The fastest drop goal appeals in that the spread will probably not move much so short at 24 and let it run for 15-20 matches. The chances of an early drop should also improve as the Tournament progresses so the spread will tend to shorten. Either you get lucky or you can bail with limited or no damage.
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3 days 4 hours ago #83 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

The Vann wrote: Harry - Got any more detail on the 120-140? If it's points differential in all tournament matches could be a runner.


Yes it is, can make up as a negative number if SH outscores the NH. Didn't look to closely at this one as it would have been a test for my geography and quite hard to work out the past stats. I make it 11 NH and 9 SH but not got a strong feel for this one.
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3 days 4 hours ago #84 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Love the spreads input - thanks Harry - reckon shirts is a sell at 3500 (an avg of 72.9 a game)

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3 days 3 hours ago #85 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
We have a new guest @Rugbycology on "Use it or Lose it" live tonight at 21h00 - we will be discussing Groups C and D of the RWC

CLICK HERE to watch on You Tube


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2 days 14 hours ago #86 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

The Vann wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: Sunbet out with total points and tries

Points 2615.5
Tries 315.5

I have gone unders in both markets


Thanks Brent. I can't figure how the the books are arriving at the points market. Weather is expected to be energy sapping and provision has been made for 0-0 draws if matches are called off. I looked at the two previous tournaments which ran on exactly the same format and points were 2,245 in 2011 and 2,439 in 2015. I will be taking several long odds outrights for small stakes but unders on the 2615.5 points line has been placed as my main outright.


Must be a lot of like-minded punters out there. See the line opened at 2535.5 this morning.

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2 days 8 hours ago #87 by labrador
Replied by labrador on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
I have seen the line on total red cards at 4.5 with Coral/Ladbrokes and 3.5 generally elsewhere.

If anyone can gets bets on with these firms it provides a virtually free bet on a total of 4 reds.

I understand that the referees are expected to afford little tolerance to head-high shots. With desperate underdogs like Russia and Namibia attempting last-ditch tackles plus tried and tested "over-exuberance" from the likes of Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, there could be a bit of an uptick in red cards this time. Could be worth a pre-tournament buy on the spreads with an early close once the first couple of reds are shown and before the players wise up and improve their tackling techniques.
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2 days 8 hours ago #88 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

labrador wrote: I have seen the line on total red cards at 4.5 with Coral/Ladbrokes and 3.5 generally elsewhere.

If anyone can gets bets on with these firms it provides a virtually free bet on a total of 4 reds.

I understand that the referees are expected to afford little tolerance to head-high shots. With desperate underdogs like Russia and Namibia attempting last-ditch tackles plus tried and tested "over-exuberance" from the likes of Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, there could be a bit of an uptick in red cards this time. Could be worth a pre-tournament buy on the spreads with an early close once the first couple of reds are shown and before the players wise up and improve their tackling techniques.


Took over 3.5 @ 10/11 with Sunbet this morning as had similar view.

Twitter @southpawZA

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2 days 7 hours ago #89 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

labrador wrote: I have seen the line on total red cards at 4.5 with Coral/Ladbrokes and 3.5 generally elsewhere.

If anyone can gets bets on with these firms it provides a virtually free bet on a total of 4 reds.

I understand that the referees are expected to afford little tolerance to head-high shots. With desperate underdogs like Russia and Namibia attempting last-ditch tackles plus tried and tested "over-exuberance" from the likes of Samoa, Fiji, Tonga, there could be a bit of an uptick in red cards this time. Could be worth a pre-tournament buy on the spreads with an early close once the first couple of reds are shown and before the players wise up and improve their tackling techniques.


In a similar vein, there's a 125 point middle on the total points lines between Lads (2500.5) and Skybet (2625.5).

On the subject of cards I'd favour taking odds against for <4.5 red with Lads if you pressed me for a bet, and I think the bookings points on the spreads are on the high side but, having read referee comments etc. I'm wary of going low at this stage. I might sit this one out but get involved as a seller if there's a bit of early carnage that results in an over reaction from the spread firms.

All that trading in and trading out stuff isn't for me, almost every bet once struck should be allowed to run to a conclusion! ;)

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2 days 5 hours ago #90 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Quick post re my current fixed odds portfolio. You'll be relieved to hear I haven't got the energy to go into as much detail as I did with the spread markets!

Argentina to win at 40/1 Hills
Ireland to win at 16/1 888
Reece top tryscorer at 15/1 888
Thoughts: These three can be filed under "using an odds boost or free bet before it expired".

Any player to score >100 points in the tournament at 9/4 with Hills
Any player to score 100+ points in the tournament at 5/1 with Betway
Thoughts: I'd taken the worse price and terms with Hills before I saw the second bet (don't think it was available at the time). My gut feel is it was just about a bet at 9/4 and is decent value at 5/1 (though I was limited to small stake).

Any team to score >90 points in a match at 6/4 with Fred
Any player to score 6+ tries in a match at 16/1 with Betway
Any player to score 8+ tries in the tournament at 9/4 with Betway
Thoughts: Basically, all bets where my gut feel told me the line and price combine for a bit of value, with due regard to prices elsewhere and stats across the last 4 World Cups.

South Africa v New Zealand final at 10/3 with Hills:
Thoughts: Sub 3/1 virtually everywhere else, Rugby Vision's ratings assess this as around a 28% chance of happening. Whilst I wouldn't follow their view slavishly it's certainly worth paying some regard to them and I felt this was worth a go.

Total drawn games >0.5 at 6/5 with Lads.
Thoughts: Close to a coin toss for me with no draws perhaps the less likely outcome. I'd rather take the 6/5 for this side of the line than the 5/4 for <0.5.

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1 day 15 hours ago #91 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
I like the guys red card bets. Unfortunately not offered in NZ

What is on offer in the unusual bets is: Any Team to Score 100+ Points in a Match @ $2.50

Based on my view of AB's v Tonga 96-7, and choosing to play as if it was SA with 15 mins to go and deliberately playing only 14,
they would otherwise got 110.

England v Tonga could therefore go large. Not to mention other teams v Tonga!

But Namibia v AB's and SA, with those outside the 23, willing to do anything to get in the 23. Especially AB outside backs.

Believe you guys (GFTG) were asking for questions for the GG Gaming Show. 100+ in any game looks "sweet as" ?

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1 day 11 hours ago #92 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

threepeat wrote: What is on offer in the unusual bets is: Any Team to Score 100+ Points in a Match @ $2.50


Is that a total return of $2.50 (what I'd call 6/4 or 2.5) or a profit of $2.50 (5/2 or 3.5)?

If the former, I'd say it's a poor bet as I'm on any team to score >90 at 6/4 as posted above. If the latter it's not bad, certainly beats any price I've seen so far for that line.

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10 hours 14 minutes ago #93 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Some interesting anomalies in the "To make the Final" markets. Joined Brent with England/Ireland @ 17/1 (Straight offered @ 22/1) but taking Couch's pick England/SA as a straight @ 33/1. Final probably hinges on England beating NZ which means they will start favorites and easy to cover SA at the 11-14/10 mark. Gives you the choice of a 2/3 stake up front or a 50% bigger profit for the same stake if covering the final for a few hours.

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8 hours 4 minutes ago - 7 hours 49 minutes ago #94 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets
Raka should be playing against Tonga and USA where France should score most of its tries so will give it a go with Raka best team tryscorer @ 6.50
Penaud is far better than him but against England and Argentina that won’t be as easy as vs those 2 teams
Now that said, with Reece and Bridge playing against SA, that means Ioane should get some time against Namibie, Canada or Italy where you could score few tries – will look at which bookie offers the best odd

Recap of my WC bets so far:
Argentina + 3.5 @ 1.88
Argentina ML @ 2.43
Italy -19 @ 1.90
Japan and Italy to win both halves @ 2.25

LT:
Any game to finish 0-0 @ 51
Reece top 4 @ 3.50
Scotland eliminated in group stage @ 5
Any player to score over 8 tries @ 6
Under 2625.5 points @ 1.91
Under 318.5 tries @ 1.91
Raka best team tryscorer @ 6.50
Last edit: 7 hours 49 minutes ago by bradie82.

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