International Rugby, Currie Cup wk 6, Mitre10 wk 2
- Brent Graham
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New Zealand look to avenge their defeat to Australia in the Bledisloe Cup and bookmakers are expecting a bounce back with -14.5 the opening line
The Boks host Argentina and team selection will be key here. I would imagine the Boks will start around -13.5 though
Watch the forum for Mitre10 Cup tips, there was some real quality last week and here are my Currie Cup handicap projections - the final at the "Big Hole" is still on
Griquas +6.5 v WP
Pumas +12.5 v Free State
Lions -4.5 v Sharks
Here is the handicap projection video
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- threepeat
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Another great punting weekend downunder. Lead by the 3P Best Bet, the Double Max on Tasman v Wellington. This bet bolted home and never looked like losing 45 -8!
I also suffered a loss on the AB game but not much as the risk v reward was too high.
Fantasic win to Boks. Now picking AB V SA in RWC final @$5.50. There is more info on the RWC thread.
This weeks 3P Best Mitre 10 Cup bet is Hawkes Bay v Wellington HTH. Hawkes Bay to win @ $2.70!!!
(confidence 75% of Max)
World Cup fever has gripped NZ same as SA. Do not even care we got thrashed by Aussie or that red card rules need to be changed, so that a new player can come on after 10 minutes for offences similar to that of Scooter Barrett.
Great to have so many SA punters in on the Mitre 10 in a RWC year. Hawkes Bay had a convincing win 31- 13 last week v Manawatu away. Very well Captained by under rated Maori All Black, Highlander and Panasonic Knight Ash Dixon.
For those of you new to Mitre 10 betting the bookies have got this one wrong. Probably because Wellington is a first tier Premiership Team in the Mitre 10 and Hawkes Bay is a second tier or Championship Team, and also because Wellington is home of the Hurricanes.
Obviously the Bookies forgot to watch the Tasman game on the weekend. Get in early, will not stay @ $2.70.
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Brent Graham chats to @JudgeRugby, @ThalaMsutu77 and @HDiemont about week 3 of the Rugby Championship and some of the selection dilemmas facing coaches ahead of Rugby World Cup 2019.
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- BookieDave
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- bradie82
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Northland +10.5 vs Auckland
North Harbour -8.5 vs CM
Hawkes Bay +5.5 vs Wellington
Manawatu +10.5 vs Taranaki
Otago -16.5 vs Southland
Canterbury -1.5 vs Tasman
BoP +3.5 vs Waikato
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- mackem
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Best book correct as of 11:00 on Monday 12th August
Cheetahs 3/1 Sunbet
Western Province 3/1 WSB
Golden Lions 4/1 Sunbet
Griquas 6/1 Sunbet
Sharks 10/1 WSB, Sunbet
Blue Bulls 33/1 Sunbet
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- BookieDave
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Apologies for poor grammar and spelling
MY EARLY LINES....
Northland +5.55 v Auckland
-Like the +10.5 here, Auckland were pretty average v Harbour..Northland and Auckland seem pretty similar to how they were last year, yet last year the same game was capped @ +7.0...After opening +9.5, it came into +5.5 and settled @ 7.
Harbour -8.37 v Counties
-No real opinion here, both sides tough to get a read after 1st week. Counties will miss SBW, he was really good v the Naki.
Hawkes Bay +4.56 v Wellington
-Depends on the weather, if its raining then this game should be pick. Dry, and it should be 5 or 6. Wellingtons strength is in their backline...they didn't see the pill v Tasman as it was pissing down and Tasman are a heap better side...If its dry, I expect them to make up for last week. Hawkes bays result shows me how shit Manawatu are this year.
Manawau +7.44 v Taranaki
-Although the market is bigger, I don't trust either team...will probably get sucked into another under that will go over before HT.
Otago -22.01 v Southland (Line will probably get bigger)
-I have ZERO idea why this line is so small (-16.5), the last 2 seasons away from home southlands line average +27.75...This is a much better southland side this year for sure, but not that much difference. Add the fact that its a Ranfuly Shield challenge, and a local derby...then this line is too low. BONUS FACT!!.....Josh Ioane will surly be back for this one, as well as Jona Nareki who was a late out last week....Potentially Laim Coltman might get some game time also...Even if you disagree...this line will start at least -20.5, so back the -16.5 now, +20.5 and cheer the gap
Canterbury +3.04 v Tasman
-I can see why Canterbury are slight faves, they are Canterbury. But Tasman are by far a better side, half of them are in the Crusaders set up anyway ,so its not quite an away game....I like Tasman, havnt backed them yet as im too inlove with my other plays.
BOP -6.60 v Waikato
- I nearly fainted when I saw this line, yes Waikato were good last week (Helped by that flog Welsh ref), but I think the result was more due to Canterbury being a bit off...Waikato still have a heap of kids playing for them and while they were good, I cant see them repeating it this week. But this line is more around the BOP, they were sensational on Sunday, did nothing wrong and put on 50+ points in pretty shit conditions. They have a perfect mix of young and old, as well as hard workers mixed with flashy players (Titatia)....this line will start close to pick, maybe even BOP faves.
Here are my outright prices...
PREM
Tasman $2.40
Canterbury $8.04
Auckland $6.18
Harbour $9.90
Wellington $10.51
Waikato $41.16
Counties $526.37
CHAMPS
Taranaki $2.36
BOP $3.77
Otago $7.78
Hawkes Bay $10.34
Northland $16.59
Manawatu $38.76
Southalnd $9999 (A simulation of 10000 seasons and they didnt win once! haha)
So..BETS!
Northland +10.5 Medium play
Otago -16.5 - HUGE play
BOP +3.5 - 2 x HUGE PLAY haha
Chuck them in a trixie and then do a straigh double Otago in to BOP
Also, you can get $15 Harbour to win which is a little bit of value...
Good luck!
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Christmas came early.
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- mackem
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Western Province 18/10 WSB
Cheetahs 33/10 Hollywood
Golden Lions 4/1 Sunbet
Griquas 7/1 Hollywood
Sharks 15/1 BetXchange
Blue Bulls 33/1 Sunbet, Hollywood
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- RuggaBugga
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ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Loading up on Argies +20.5 vs Boks. Boks set to rest all first choice players making this handicap far too big.
Christmas came early.
BetX have Argies +21.5
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- bradie82
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Matias Alemanno, Gonzalo Bertranou, Emiliano Boffelli, Sebastian Cancelliere, Santiago Carreras, Santiago Cordero, Agustin Creevy, Joaquin Diaz Bonilla, Jeronimo de la Fuente, Bautista Delguy, Felipe Ezcurra, Juan Figallo, Facundo Isa, Marcos Kremer, Tomas Lavanini, Tomas Lezana, Pablo Matera, Santiago Medrano, Lucas Mensa, Julian Montoya, Ramiro Moyano, Javier Ortega Desio, Guido Petti, Enrique Perietto, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Joaquin Tuculet, Benjamin Urdapilleta, Mayco Vivas
On the other side Erasmus called five new players : WP Scarra Ntubeni and team-mates Wilco Louw, Kolisi and Dillyn Leyds and Blue Bulls Marco van Staden.
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- threepeat
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Northland (Taniwha) v Auckland
Weather in Whangerai is fine which will suit far superior backline of Auckland.
As defending champions they will be looking for a strong bounce back after last weeks draw.
Team is similar to last week.
Auckland team to play Northland:
Alex Hodgman (Suburbs, 1 cap(s)
Leni Apisai (Loaned, 1)
Marcel Renata (University, 33)
Jamie Lane (Ponsonby, 6)
Jack Whetton (Grammar TEC, 28)
Waimana Riedlinger-Kapa (Ponsonby, 4)
Blake Gibson – Co-C (Ponsonby, 26)
Hoskins Sotutu (Marist, 11)
Jonathan Ruru (University, 12)
Harry Plummer (Grammar TEC, 16)
Caleb Clarke (Suburbs, 11)
TJ Faiane – Co-C (Pakuranga, 29)
Tanielu Tele’a (Marist, 5)
AJ Lam (Grammar TEC, 1)
Salesi Rayasi (Marist, 12)
Michael Lea (Marist, debut)
Ezekiel Lindenmuth (Suburbs, 6)
Marco Fepulea’i (Ponsonby, 12)
Peter-Chanel Tagaloa (Marist, debut)
Dalton Papalii (Pakuranga, 13)
Danny Tusitala (Ponsonby, 1)
D’Angelo Leuila (Papatoetoe, 1)
Kurt Heatherley (Loaned, debut)
(Northland Team also available online, not many Super players in their team)
For defending champions they are missing a lot of players from last season, just look at the lack of caps. Notably, AB Dalton Papalii is on the bench and he makes a big difference. Placing faith in the highly successful coaching team of Head Coach Alama Ieremia, with support of Sir Graham Henry.
Betting 4 out of 10, Auckland to beat the line, which has been steady at -10.5 tab nz all week.
Some suggestion from BookieDave that a better line can be found, but not here in NZ and I appear to be contrary to his medium play. Dave has been giving good advice in this competition but you cannot agree on everything. Dave's Otago -16.5 is worth banking on. Cheers3P
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- threepeat
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RuggaBugga wrote:
ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Loading up on Argies +20.5 vs Boks. Boks set to rest all first choice players making this handicap far too big.
Christmas came early.
BetX have Argies +21.5
tab nz line moved today from Argie +21.5 to +20,5
Have followed Thought & Rugger deep into this.
Imagine how much you would have put on prior to the Salta game!
Get on now before Bok team is announced, as it will be a hybrid BOK A/B Team, and line will drop down.
Pumas are same as Jags and have been rotating all year and will be less affected by changes.
Lets not forget that Boks play Japan b4 world cup and will start the A Team for that game.
Question is how many changes for Loftus? I am betting on plenty.
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- hanrick
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threepeat wrote:
RuggaBugga wrote:
ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Loading up on Argies +20.5 vs Boks. Boks set to rest all first choice players making this handicap far too big.
Christmas came early.
BetX have Argies +21.5
tab nz line moved today from Argie +21.5 to +20,5
Have followed Thought & Rugger deep into this.
Imagine how much you would have put on prior to the Salta game!
Get on now before Bok team is announced, as it will be a hybrid BOK A/B Team, and line will drop down.
Pumas are same as Jags and have been rotating all year and will be less affected by changes.
Lets not forget that Boks play Japan b4 world cup and will start the A Team for that game.
Question is how many changes for Loftus? I am betting on plenty.
From what I have heard, the whole starting XV will be different.
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- threepeat
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hanrick wrote:
threepeat wrote:
RuggaBugga wrote:
ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Loading up on Argies +20.5 vs Boks. Boks set to rest all first choice players making this handicap far too big.
Christmas came early.
BetX have Argies +21.5
tab nz line moved today from Argie +21.5 to +20,5
Have followed Thought & Rugger deep into this.
Imagine how much you would have put on prior to the Salta game!
Get on now before Bok team is announced, as it will be a hybrid BOK A/B Team, and line will drop down.
Pumas are same as Jags and have been rotating all year and will be less affected by changes.
Lets not forget that Boks play Japan b4 world cup and will start the A Team for that game.
Question is how many changes for Loftus? I am betting on plenty.
From what I have heard, the whole starting XV will be different.
Comprehensive article can be found on RugbyPass.
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- mackem
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WSB
Griquas +7.5 WP
Pumas +13.5 Free State
Lions -4.5 Sharks
Sunbet
Griquas +9.5
Pumas +11.5
Lions -4.5
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- bradie82
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- southpaw
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They don’t appear to have anywhere near the same level of competition for World Cup places compared to Boks. The guys turning out for Rassie this weekend will be trying to book a spot in RWC squad, and scores can come fast at Loftus.
Overs on points will be my focus once quotes come out. Weather forecast looks superb.
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- BookieDave
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Was hoping Northland might get Tom Robbo back... no idea how long he is out for..
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- threepeat
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BookieDave wrote: Nice 3P, if we all agreed how boring would it be!!
Was hoping Northland might get Tom Robbo back... no idea how long he is out for..
Also a Clifford the big red dog fan!
Source NZ Herald June 2019 "Blues loose forward Tom Robinson, a standout in his first season of Super Rugby, has suffered another knee injury which requires surgery and could set him back for six months.
The Herald understands Robinson suffered a torn meniscus in training and is scheduled to go under the knife today. The only positive for the 24-year-old blindside flanker is that it isn't an anterior cruciate ligament injury"..
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- MrMeeseeks86
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- mackem
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bradie82 wrote: The Griquas +8.5 (in European bookie) seems quite interesting with the number of WP players involved in the SA vs Arg game but have not seen any Griquas game this season
I think so to Bradie, my Currie Cup form not great this season so that might not be a good thing but going 3 of 5 units Griquas +9 points 9/10 Sportingbet (tie in play)
Griquas v WP preview here
goodforthegame.co.za/Currie-Cup-2019/gri...betting-preview.html
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- bradie82
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Griquas +9.5 @1.87
For tomorrow, I quite like the Northland over 21.5 pts
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- Brad Breath
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ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Loading up on Argies +20.5 vs Boks. Boks set to rest all first choice players making this handicap far too big.
Christmas came early.
Followed on this, cap now +17 / +18 at most European books.
I was a bit surprised at the strength of the Pumas squad, thought they'd rest fair few more. They look a bit tired to me.
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- Brent Graham
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- hanrick
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- Brad Breath
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hanrick wrote: Looking at the line movement it looks like there is a lot of support for Northland. They didn't impress me against Southland. I like Auckland here and have managed to get -8.5 at 9/10
Agreed Hanrick, best I could get was -9.5
Small stakes as last weekend I got roasted
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- slaterj
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Saying this they will probably tear a new one off of the Aussies in Auckland at the weekend however how can anybody back them simply expecting for them to beat a handicap? The stats don't lie they have been terrible at covering for a good while now.
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goodforthegame.co.za/Currie-Cup-2019/pum...betting-preview.html
Initally I was thinking the minus but Pumas still have chance to avoid the promo / relegation play off which has me sat of the fence as far as the cap is concerned.
Will go 2 units on 2nd half to be highest scoring half at 5/6 with WSB
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- landrews77
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The AB's has selected a exited back three. They will not kick that much this week.It will be the wallabies who gonna kick ball away ,always under pressure. Another factor that always play apart with the AB's was their emotions.Every time when the AB's are emotional , they payed badly, like the crusaders. Last week was the same. The death of a Legend. This week ,they are angry, I have expected them 2 weeks ago to win with 19 points, they did not.Also against the Argies , they did not. It will happen this week. GOLDEN AB -18,5
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- landrews77
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2008 : 34 -19 Sydney (Aus win)
39-10 Eden Park (AB win
2011: 25-20 Brisbane /Aus win
20- 6 Eden Park / AB win
2014 : 12 - 12 Sydny / dràw
51 -20 Eden park /AB win
2015: 27 -19 Sydny /Aus win
42- 23 Eden park /AB win
2019: 47-26 Perth /Aus win
Eden park -/same margin or more
Very confident the AB will beat the handicap
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- southpaw
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Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Wyn Jones, 18 Dillon Lewis, 19 Aaron Shingler, 20 Josh Navidi, 21 Aled Davies, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Owen Watkin
England: 15 Elliot Daly, 14 Ruaridh McConnochie, 13 Jonathan Joseph, 12 Piers Francis, 11 Joe Cokanasiga, 10 George Ford (c), 9 Willi Heinz; 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3 Dan Cole, 4 Joe Launchbury, 5 Maro Itoje, 6 Courtney Lawes, 7 Lewis Ludlam, 8 Billy Vunipola
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Joe Marler, 18 Kyle Sinckler, 19 George Kruis, 20 Jack Singleton, 21 Ben Youngs, 22 Owen Farrell, 23 Manu Tuilagi
This is a better England 23 than last week and a weaker 23 for Wales who've lost a few to injury. Itoje back for Eng = big plus, their pack looks extremely solid.
ENG +2.5 @ 17/20 with Sunbet all day long.
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- threepeat
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Ash is the Folau Fainga’a of Mitre Ten. Paying 17-1 for the first try tonight! The beauty is, he is the Captain and calls the plays!
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- sunnyskies
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landrews77 wrote: I really think the AB's have underestimate the Wallabies last week. Hansen expect 200% from his team this week. The Wallabies is not a good team . It is the same team that was demolished by a second string Boks team a couple of weeks ago and HOW? The Boks had out muscle them upfront to supplied good ball to the backs.
The AB's has selected a exited back three. They will not kick that much this week.It will be the wallabies who gonna kick ball away ,always under pressure. Another factor that always play apart with the AB's was their emotions.Every time when the AB's are emotional , they payed badly, like the crusaders. Last week was the same. The death of a Legend. This week ,they are angry, I have expected them 2 weeks ago to win with 19 points, they did not.Also against the Argies , they did not. It will happen this week. GOLDEN AB -18,5
The weather forecast could play a big impact in this. It is not looking good at this stage.
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- mackem
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2 units, either side to win by 7 points or less including the draw at 14/10 with Sunbet
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- hanrick
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- hanrick
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hanrick wrote: I'm surprised Harbour aren't bigger favourites here. Really like them on the minus. I'm on -8.5 at 10/11
Really bad read from me. 30 mins in and minus long gone
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- Wies Bang
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- bradie82
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I saw few games with a high scoring in first half with only few points in second half so i ll give it a go
On the next game, on betfair exchange, took Dixon anytime tryscorer @ 3.75
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- bradie82
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bradie82 wrote: Following my first instinct
Griquas +9.5 @1.87
Adding Griquas over 24.5 @ 1.86
I find the cut low so giving it a go
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