Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
- The Vann
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I can see why Roglic tops the boards as he usually starts fast - is going to take 30-60 seconds off Superman and Carapaz over the ITT and will probably not be caught if he has around 45 sec in hand for the final week.
Am going to try and avoid too many outrights as I have been burned recently but one oddity did catch my eye. Fuglsang started as third favorite in the TdF but starts at 33/1 - with 10/1 on offer for podium. There is some doubt around his form with the w/d at the TdF and one presumes he will be required to ride in support of Lopez but those podium odds still look rather attractive.
Will post any bets after team presentation on Thursday
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- Brent Graham
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His KOM pick of Nieve who is 25/1 particularly tempting
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2 units Astana team comp 11/1 at Hollywood
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2 units Nieve 28/1 Hollywood (following Will on this one)
0.5 units Chavez 40/1 WSB
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- The Vann
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Top 10
Fuglsang @ 15/10
Top 3
Surely he can't fall 4 times by stage 14 as he did in the Giro
Geoghegan Hart @ 11/2
Team Comp
The Carapaz withdrawal is a big blow to Movistar
EF Education @ 11/2
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/viva-...betting-preview.html
Couch's picks with BetOlimp
To win the race – MA Lopez @ 3.55
KOM Winner – Hugh Carthy @ 38.00 or Daniel Martinez @ 37.00
Special: Podium finish - Tao Gheoghegan Hart @ 7.50
Special: Top 10 – Sergio Higuita @ 3.40
Special: Number of stage wins – Sam Bennett over 2.5 @ 2.30
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- The Vann
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Would normally wait until tomorrow to post stage bets but wrote down my caps and checked a few books. EF Education finished 6th at the TdF TTT (Stage 2) just 7 seconds off podium and are carrying a similar or better team. All the teams that beat them that day are carrying substantially weaker TT squads. They may have to carry Higuita slightly but I capped them at odds on to podium - around 17/20. Have taken this at Sportingbet
Top 3
EF Education @ 51/20
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- The Vann
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The Vann wrote: Stage 1
Would normally wait until tomorrow to post stage bets but wrote down my caps and checked a few books. EF Education finished 6th at the TdF TTT (Stage 2) just 7 seconds off podium and are carrying a similar or better team. All the teams that beat them that day are carrying substantially weaker TT squads. They may have to carry Higuita slightly but I capped them at odds on to podium - around 17/20. Have taken this at Sportingbet
Top 3
EF Education @ 51/20
Noticed they have shortened to 31/20 today at Sportingbet. I believe they are still value at anything over the 13/10 mark.
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- The Vann
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KOM
Soler @ 125/1
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- kt6747
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The Vann wrote:
The Vann wrote: Stage 1
Would normally wait until tomorrow to post stage bets but wrote down my caps and checked a few books. EF Education finished 6th at the TdF TTT (Stage 2) just 7 seconds off podium and are carrying a similar or better team. All the teams that beat them that day are carrying substantially weaker TT squads. They may have to carry Higuita slightly but I capped them at odds on to podium - around 17/20. Have taken this at Sportingbet
Top 3
Noticed they have shortened to 31/20 today at Sportingbet. I believe they are still value at anything over the 13/10 mark.
Still available at 17/10 @ Sunbet
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- mackem
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- Brent Graham
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Stage 2 is a typical Vuelta sprint stage that gives the pure sprinters no chance LOL - here are my selections
1 unit Gilbert 14/1
1/2 unit Aranburu 25/1 Sunbet
1/2 unit Bevin 66/1 Sunbet
1/4 unit Roche 125/1 WSB (Will Newtons pic)
1/4 unit Muhlberger 125/1 Sunbet (also on Wills shortlist)
Here is the video preview
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- The Vann
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Stage 2
Higuita @ 22/1
Battaglin @ 33/1
Venturini @ 40/1
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So for mind I see that beautiful short final climb being the decider for the stage - man I wish they just finished on its summit!
Reduced sprint for me and here are my darts:
Stybar @ 40/1. QS likely yo use the Gilbert-Stybar double and at the better price I'm hoping the latter stays away.
Dylan Theuns @ 36/1
Brambilla @ 44/1
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- Brent Graham
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No video preview for me today and won't be betting but fancy Bennett but cannot take 8/10 in the Vuelta and a bit worried he dropped before the climb yesterday although may have realised he had no chance and decided to save energy - up until then his team appeared to be riding for him
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Roglic back to strong favourite but I was actually suprised that he didn't haul Nairo in. Roglic the TT king surely should have been able to pin his ears back and pull in the pure climber with 3km of flat to the line...
Took Bennett over 2.5 wins pre race so need him to get the first one under the belt today.
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- The Vann
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Stage 3
Agree with everyone a battle between the top 3 sprinters so no value with Bennett being so short. Have to have a beer for the watch so maybe The Boss starts his sprint early and only gets caught by 2 of the 3
Top 3
Boasson Hagen @ 5/1
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- The Vann
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No doubt that Bennett is the fastest in the field but Quickstep have proved over the years that they are the best organised in tough conditions so going with
Win
Jakobsen @ 5/1
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- Brent Graham
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No interest for me the last 2 days but today's finishing climb is a brute and have to have an interest, also time to get my outright money down
Stage 5:
0.5u Chavez 25/1Sunbet
0.5u Aru 40/1 WSB
1u Quintana/Lopez at 5/2 WSB
Outright
2u Chaves Top 3 at 5/1 WSB
1u Chaves win at 25/1
Here is the video preview
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- mackem
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(Nicely done yesterday Vann - top stuff!)
Stage 5:
Brambilla @ 79/1
Atapuma @ 150/1 (when the road goes up I need him in my ranks)
Pardilla @ 330/1
Segio Henao @ 340/1
My one from the favourites:
Pogacar @ 22/1
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- The Vann
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Stage 5
Lopez only wins this stage if he rides away from everyone. He has the slowest 50m uphill sprint of the main contenders. Taking Teuns to cover the break and I believe there is a lot of merit in Brent's match bet as Quintana is going to sit on Lopez's wheel all the way up.
Win
Roglic @ 15/2
Teuns @ 25/1
Top 3
Aru @ 8/1
Match bet
Quintana over Lopez @ 25/10
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- The Vann
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Martinez @ 150/1
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Jeez Lopez and Roglic (and Valverde at this stage) look a different league to the rest right now. This really could become a two-horse race from quite far out if this trend continues.
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Win only action for me today
1u Aranburu 22/1 wsb
0.5u J Herrada 22/1 Sunbet
0.5u Guerreiro 40/1 Sunbet
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Stage 6
Strangely many in the cycling community are calling today a GC finish? Would fancy Higuita if this were the case but I'm going to stick with a few darts at a break
De Gendt @ 16/1
Izagirre Ion @ 99/1
Grosschartner @ 99/1
Will keep an eye on the break and will probably go in play if I come up empty with the above.
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1u Edet KOM at 30/1 Sunbet
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Gilbert @ 59/1
King @ 77/1
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Herrada opens my account - tomorrow should be a cracker
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- mackem
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I can't get in a blow right now, chancing these okes on Friday, this last climb short but brutal
Latour 50/1
Chavez 25/1
Navarro 50/1
Enjoy the stage
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Stage 7
Looks like GC to me but will try and cover both eventualities.
Valverde @ 10/1
Chavez @ 25/1
Martinez @ 40/1
and not going to make the mistake of leaving the KOM leader out of a mountain stage again
e/w
Madrazo @ 229/1
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a unit Poels 10/1
0.5 u Eg 28/1
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Only bets thus far for Stage 7:
Gheoghegan Hart @ 40/1
Martinez @ 50/1
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Stage 8
De Gendt @ 12/1
Aranburu @ 14/1
Smith @ 66/1
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Herrada 18/1
Bevin for Mackem at 40/1
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I have an interest on Madrazo for KOM so this is a crucial stage for my hopes. I need no breaks on the first climb or alternatively need the KOM leader to be in the break and get some points on the first 2 mountains. The problem is that whether we see a GC battle or not this stage is all about the REAL climbers. I reckon my man is going to be toppled today unfortunately.
I have no doubt that one of Poels or Geogheganhart will try the early move along with at least one of the EF lads. The problem is that other proper climbers will be called on for GC duty (think Soler, Fuglsang, Gesink and Cataldo) whilst others could be deemed too close to be let go (Nieve and Aru?) so it will be tough for someone to win from the break for mind.
Perhaps the best chance for someone other than Valverde, Nairo, Roglic or Lopez is to wait for the big four to play games and seize your chance knowing they dont need to chase you immediately. Thinking - Majka, Latour, Chavez, Aru & Pogacar.
Astana have one serious team and I see them giving it fulll beans today. Soler looks to be finding his legs which is great news for Movi as I reckon they should win the stage if they play the one-two with Nairo and ValV after Astana has done all the hard work during the day.
It's pretty much all in for Nairo for me today. I've struggled to catch him right but he looks to have the legs. Bala to go early and Quintana to finish the job when he's caught.
Nairo @ 6/1
Majka @ 40/1
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- The Vann
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Lopez @ 3/1
Geoghegan Hart @ 46/1
Martinez @ 49/1
Rodriguez @ 66/1
and some match bet odds are too long so a double
Geoghegan Hart over Poels into
Kuss over Soler @ shade over 8/1
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- kt6747
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Navarro @ 150/1
Attapuma @ 150/1
Enjoy the afternoon
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Poels 14/1 - we keep on waiting for this guy and deliver
Nieve 33/1 - KOM challenge starts here
Aru 40/1 - hoping like Will suggests on twitter he gets in the break
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Cradoock/Arndt Oliviera/Bevin
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2 u Cradoock/Arndt Oliviera/Bevin at 14/10
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0.5u Barta top 3 66/1 Sunbet
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- The Vann
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Sunday's covering bet on Lopez did not pan out as he crashed but going with another cover bet today
Stage 10
Stage to be won by more then 10sec - yes @ 11/20
to cover stakes on
Top 3
Pogacar @ 4/1
Match bet double
Roglic over Kiryienka into
Soler over I Izagirre @ 18/10
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These are cycling units not rugby units LOL
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