Cycling : La Vuelta Espana
- mackem
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Two of the less obvious guys for the break, Tomasz Marczynski at 66/1 and Enrico Battaglin 80/1 and just in case they get license to have a go today Omar Fraire 22/1 and Luis Leon Sanchez 28/1.
Good luck lads,
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- Brent Graham
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0.5u on
Branbilla 40/1
Geoghan Hart 28/1
JJ Rojas 50/1
0.25 u Aru 150/1
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- The Vann
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Stage 11
Mezgec @ 18/1
Higuita @ 28/1
Rojas @ 40/1 (Surely he has to win a GT stage before he retires)
Had a match bet double in mind but WSB have pulled them. Will post if I can get on.
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- The Vann
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In play with 90km to go. Looks like break may stay so going with theory - Always bet Quickstep from break
Cavagna @ 5/1
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- kt6747
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For today I know probably way out but going with the following:
Teo Geoghan Hart @ 25/1
King @ 100/1
O Conner @ 150/1
Enjoy the racing.
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- Brent Graham
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O.5 u on
Fraile 14/1
TGHart 25/1
Brambilla 40/1
Aranburu 40/1
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Stage 12
Not sure the break stays today and it will most likely be small but will take a few anyway
Rodriguez @ 31/1
De Gendt @ 41/1
Brambilla @ 51/1
Grosschartner @ 114/1
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- Brent Graham
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Studying tomorrows stage now - what a beast
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- Brent Graham
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1u Poels win 12/1 WSB
I like Roglic for the stage but will instead take him to beat Valverde at 11/10
3 units Roglic/Valverde at 11/10 WSB
3 units Poels KOM at 16/1 Sunbet
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Most of the clever chaps are calling today a GC finish so I am going Lopez but have to have a few for the possibility of the break staying.
Win
Lopez @ 5/1
Nieve @ 33/1
e/w
O'Connor @ 100/1
Poljanski @ 300/1
Fancy Teuns but he is just too close in GC to be allowed to run.
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- The Vann
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- Brent Graham
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I am having a nibble Gavaria 18/1 WSB - just 0.5 unit and half unit Bevin 40/1
I don't think the fav Bennett runs in the top 3
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- Brent Graham
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Massive stage today and after a good weekend I am looking to fire
1st up a value KOM play
1 unit Fugslang at 100/1 Sunbet
The KOM leader has 32 points, I expect Fugs in the break today and in a best case scenario (he wins every climb and the stage) he gets 40 points. That may be a bit ambitious (he may also be called back for Lopez) but 100/1 looks worth a gamble. Same logic applies to other good climbers not in contention but he looks the value
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- Brent Graham
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Majka/Valverde, Quintana/Lopez, GHart/Poels, Pernsteiner/Keldermann, Martinez/Rodriguez
Also taken a Canadian for 0.2 of a unit (26 bets)
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- Brent Graham
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1u Fugslang 14/1 WSB
0.5 u Ion Izzigirre 40/1 Sunbet
0.5u Pernsteiner 40/1 WSB
Big match bet to follow
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- Brent Graham
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5u Quintana/Lopez at 14/10
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- kt6747
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Ben O'Conner
Daniel Navarro
Both @ 125/1 E/W
Hoping one gets into the break and stays strong.
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- mackem
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- Couch Critic
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Feels like I just cant spot value at present. The likes of G Hart, Poels, Chavez and Nieve keep getting respect yet have given us little. Fuglsang and Soler look great for this stage but price is short considering possible team orders (not that Soler will give a damn this time around surely).
Jon Izagirre @ 44/1
Kelderman @ 59/1
Majka @ 59/1
Match:
Tao G Hart over Poels @ 8/10
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- Brent Graham
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Higuita 22/1
Martinez 33/1
TGHart 40/1
Frankiny 66/1
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- The Vann
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Not sure if the break stays today but must say there is a lack of cajones in the GC lot, except for Lopez who does not seem to have the legs, so it just might. Will probably look at GC in play if it looks like going that way.
Teuns @ 66/1
Henao, Sergio @ 100/1
Bizkarra @ 100/1
Leaving Martinez out of today's plays which must improve his chances.
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- mackem
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Tiesj Benoot16/1
Nils Politt33/1
Ben Hermans 66/1
Carrying the beer money
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- The Vann
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Tour of Britain Stage 4
Taking Trentin 1-3 at evens to cover
Win
Teunissen @ 12/1
Dowsett @ 200/1
1-3
Dowsett @ 50/1
Modolo @ 50/1
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- Brent Graham
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Bennett odds on and surely won't be beaten in a sprint but surely the likes of Quickstep won't play into his hands this time and will try and attack late through a Gilbert or Stybar
My main bet which I think is really good value at this stage of the Vuelta is winning margin 1 second or more at 4/1 - and going with a big 5 unit strike - not that I am that confident just like the price
then 0.5u
Gilbert 25/1 WSB
Aranburu 33/1 Hollies
TDG 66/1 Hollies
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- The Vann
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Vuelta 17
Think the right break may stay away today so going for
Aberasturi @ 18/1
De Gendt @ 66/1
Theuns @ 125/1
Barthe @ 200/1
Could not decide on a Quickstep rider but have to have one with wind expected to cause echelons so will follow Brent with Gilbert.
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- Couch Critic
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Bennett will secure my pre tour bet of over 2.5 wins by taking victory but I am feeling bullish and will back him for the stage as well today. He has looked stront and wont be tripped up by the steep finish.
Sam the man @ 5/6 for a solid strike
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- Wies Bang
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- Brent Graham
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Couch Critic wrote: Sorry lads but I cant have anyone but Bennett today. Its been a long time since there was a chance for a sprint and I reckon they will make sure they get one!
Bennett will secure my pre tour bet of over 2.5 wins by taking victory but I am feeling bullish and will back him for the stage as well today. He has looked stront and wont be tripped up by the steep finish.
Sam the man @ 5/6 for a solid strike
Wish I had known, would gladly lay you 1/1
A sprint and he wins but I have my doubts it will be a pure sprint
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- The Vann
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Brent Graham wrote:
Couch Critic wrote: Sorry lads but I cant have anyone but Bennett today. Its been a long time since there was a chance for a sprint and I reckon they will make sure they get one!
Bennett will secure my pre tour bet of over 2.5 wins by taking victory but I am feeling bullish and will back him for the stage as well today. He has looked stront and wont be tripped up by the steep finish.
Sam the man @ 5/6 for a solid strike
Wish I had known, would gladly lay you 1/1
A sprint and he wins but I have my doubts it will be a pure sprint
One of those "What do you want first? The good news or the bad news?" Good news is Bennett makes the break - Bad news is so does Quintana which means Bora are now chasing for the Majka overall position. Would love to see this part live
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- The Vann
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- Couch Critic
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Brent doubted it would be a sprint and clearly Bennett heard him. The fastest sprinter in the break needed to pick a wheel and coast till less than 400m to go and launch to glory but instead felt alone and confused without a leadout and completely shat the bed by going for glory just inside the 1km kite. What an idiot!
Beautifully done by QS with their usual brilliance in being vital in creating the split and then playing the one-two combo with Stybar and Gilbert to get the win.
Nice going on Gilbert and the 1sec bet Brent. Still cant believe my bad luck /poor form in this Vuelta.
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- Brent Graham
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Was just hoping Gilbert wouldn't slow down too much and very pleased to land the 4/1 play which was great value
Onto tomorrow and there must be some very tired legs
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- Couch Critic
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My early pick for tomorrow (yes you heard me right - there will be no retreat, no surrender from this punter!) is Jon Izagirre hopefully being let off the hook to ride his own race @ 60/1
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- Brent Graham
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I will speculate with 0.5u on each of
Cataldo 125/1
Fraile 125/1
Chaves 40/1
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- The Vann
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Fancied Gheoghegan Hart and Guerreiro today but the 9/1 and 14/1 does not appeal. We get the whole stage today so may pick one in play at reduced odds. Joining Couch (Sadly the butt of another Irish joke yesterday) and adding a few
Win
J Izagirre @ 33/1
Aranburu @ 45/1
De Gendt @ 63/1
King @ 109/1
and a match bet double
Pernsteiner/Kelderman into
Lopez/Pogacar @ 4/1
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- mackem
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Thursday, Latour for me at 25/1, was in leading group yesterday i think but not for long, hoping it was with today in mind rather than bad legs.
Also nibbling at Lawson Craddock at 125/1 and I want a GC man so Roglic at 14/1 in case they all his main rivals cut their own throats
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- The Vann
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Tour of Britain
Top 3
Durbridge @ 13/2
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- The Vann
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In play 112km left
Geoghegan Hart @ 7/2
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- Brent Graham
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It is not the standout value of Wednesday where we got 4/1 but I think there is more likely to be a 1 second gap than not so I am wading in again with a 5 unit play
5u winning margin 1 sec or more at 31/20 at Sunbet
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- mackem
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- Brent Graham
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I like him and will nibble on Stybar and throw in some roughies
1u Valverde around 9/1
1u Stybar at 11/1
0.5u LaTour 66/1
0.5u Brambilla 100/1
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- The Vann
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Aranburu @ 22/1
De Gendt @ 85/1 (Last chance stage for him)
Brambilla @ 100/1
Grosschartner @ 110/1
Normally that would be it but the missus wants to know how much of my money would she need to get 1k if Stybar wins. Therefor R72 - which I won't see again on
Stybar @ 14/1
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- Brent Graham
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Todays stage is tough, not brutal climbs but hardly any flat and very difficult to control. If Lopez is feeling strong this could get very exciting early - break has a decent chance though I reckon and will probably pick a few long shots today.
Roglic is the strongest in the race but if Movi and Astana both ride aggressively he could well be exposed today.
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- Brent Graham
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Then is Lopez has the legs he attacks and one by one the Astana crew drop back to pace him - if you want to make big time on this stage you need a seriously strong team which Lopez has. Valverde is likely to ride defensively although a few Movi will be in the break for sure and I think the condition of Quintana will determine how aggressive they go. They showed yesterday when they never really worked with Bora in that small echolon that they want to protect Quintana podium
Let's hope we get serious action and here are my bets - all 0.5u on
Brambilla 28/1
Frankiny 66/1
De Gendt 125/1
Chavez 66/1
Considering a decent lump on Lopez at 6/1 but a bit worried as he (and Roglic) went down yesterday.
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- Brent Graham
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5u Lopez/Majka onto Podgacar/Quintana at 1.25/1 - Hollywood
Could have got 14/10 at Sporting if they didn't somehow think the events were related
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- Brent Graham
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