Rugby World Cup - Pool matches 30 Sep - 06 Oct, Pro 14 + other

UPDATE TYPHOON MITAG

England could be handed their World Cup quarterfinal place by a typhoon which is threatening one of the Pool B games.

World Rugby has warned France and the USA their match in Fukuoka on Wednesday is in danger of being cancelled because of high winds and heavy rain heading that way, in the form of Typhoon Mitag.

"The latest information indicates that the typhoon is moving further away from Japan's coastline than originally predicted and the impact risk is reducing," World Rugby said in a statement on Sunday.

"However, in the best interests of the teams and the integrity of the tournament, we have informed France and the USA of the contingency plans in the event that adverse weather means that it is not possible to play the match in Fukuoka on the scheduled date."

This means a possible 0 - 0 draw and no bonus point for France.

Lots of Injuries/bans for Samoa

Afa Amosa suffered a tournament ending knee injury.

Samoa centre Rey Lee-Lo has received a three-match ban

Motu Matu'u has also been banned for three matches and failed HIA

Dwayne Polataivao (halfback) failed concussions tests
I thought Matavao was the better halfback when he came on play the ball was much quicker and he posed more threats so he may have started anyway.

World Rugby and #RWC2019 Organising Committee have confirmed that #FRAvUSA match will be played in #RWCFukuoka on Oct 2 as scheduled as Typhoon Mitag is lessening in strength.

Scotland 11-20 pt win @ 5/2
MoM = Laidlaw 16/1

Scotland R30 @ 1.60 on 888

Once the over 3.5 tries is available live, I ll go for it

That’s the French squad for Wednesday game

Ramos - Huget, Guitoune, Fickou, Raka - (o) Lopez, (m) Machenaud - Iturria, Picamoles (cap.), Camara - Gabrillagues, Le Roux - Setiano, Chat, Baille.
Remplaçants : Guirado, Poirot, Slimani, Vahaamahina, Alldritt, Serin, Ntamack, Médard.

It looks like the Typhoon will be much weaker by the time of the Match on Wednesday :>

www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201919W.html

Two confident handicap picks for me this week. USA +25.5 at 10/11 vs France and Italy +29.5 at 0.89/1 vs South Africa.

I like the Jocks today

Scotland -15.5 @ 1.85 placed late last week

Gone in for more -16 @ 1.91 just now

Also Scotland pen before 14.5 mins @ 1.91

I know it's a few days early, but the All black team for the Canada game has just been released and it looks lethal.

Have taken -65.5 and -71.5 at 1.9 and 2.45 respectively.

Added McInally hat trick @ 67

Met a guy over the weekend who played all age groups rugby with Townsend. Blew his knee before reaching senior rugby and went into coaching. Says Townsend was by far the best player he ever played with and an all round good guy - not suited to coaching though - just unable to understand why players can't read situations like he could.
Having a nibble on Samoa +13.5 @ 13/10

I like Fiji -7.5, Australia -47.5 and France -26.5 for the 3rd round.

Not sure if this is the right place for this, but hear me out.

This is for the Superbru players , if you picked the exact score as the pre-game odds of Sunbet, e.g game 2, Aus - 16.5 vs Fiji so you pick Aus by 16, with the result being Aus 39 - Fiji 21 ( Aus by 18, the difference being 2,) then out of the first two rounds you would have called 16/18 games correct, with 9/18 games within 5 points, for a total of 20.5 and a TDM of around 186, which would put you just outside of 250th in the world rankings, this should also put in in either first or second spot in most of the Pools ( probably top 6 in WSB Pool).

So my question is, do you continue following the bookies? Or do you try and chase the extra margin points? A lot of punters play in pay to win pools, with Prize money ranging from R500 for the first spot to other pools where the winner takes R15/20K from 1 R750 Buy-in?

Sunshine Ace wrote: Not sure if this is the right place for this, but hear me out.

This is for the Superbru players , if you picked the exact score as the pre-game odds of Sunbet, e.g game 2, Aus - 16.5 vs Fiji so you pick Aus by 16, with the result being Aus 39 - Fiji 21 ( Aus by 18, the difference being 2,) then out of the first two rounds you would have called 16/18 games correct, with 9/18 games within 5 points, for a total of 20.5 and a TDM of around 186, which would put you just outside of 250th in the world rankings, this should also put in in either first or second spot in most of the Pools ( probably top 6 in WSB Pool).

So my question is, do you continue following the bookies? Or do you try and chase the extra margin points? A lot of punters play in pay to win pools, with Prize money ranging from R500 for the first spot to other pools where the winner takes R15/20K from 1 R750 Buy-in?

In my experience Books set the margins and then adjust them based on their stats on punters for eg Today's Scotland v Samoa. They probably came up with Scotland around 12 point favorites and then set their margin at 15.5 on the basis that most punters would go Scotland. I met a large group of Scottish fans over the weekend and they convinced me that Scotland would be lucky to beat Samoa by 10 points today. I changed my SuperBru pick from Scotland by 25 to Scotland by 11 and bet Samoa + 13.5. Should have stayed with my pick.
To answer your "Do you continue to follow the books ?" If you are not great on rugby then yes - if you know your sport - go with your own picks. Guarantee you that 16 from 18 is about as good as it gets from the books and will probably head downhill from now.

3rd Red card of tournament today. Surely the over 3.5 lands by time this weekend is over.

Charlie Sheen 1st Quaddie in October:

Points Start World Cup: France v USA Rugby Union Wed, 02 Oct 2019, 8:45pm
USA (+26.5) @ 1.90
Points Start World Cup: Georgia v Fiji Rugby Union Thu, 03 Oct 2019, 6:15pm
Fiji (-7.5) @ 1.90
Head To Head Mitre 10 Cup: North Harbour v Wellington Rugby Union Fri, 04 Oct 2019, 7:35pm
Wellington @ 1.48
Points Start (a) Mitre 10 Cup: Auckland v Southland Rugby Union Sat, 05 Oct 2019, 5:05pm
Auckland (-20.5) @ 1.46
Combined Odds 7.80

hanrick wrote: Two confident handicap picks for me this week. USA +25.5 at 10/11 vs France and Italy +29.5 at 0.89/1 vs South Africa.

Agree with your USA pick and managed to get on tab nz +26.5 @ $1.90
Note that line has now moved to +23.5

Have now added small bet France margin 21 - 30 @ $4.20

All over Italy I think you Saffas are in trouble XD

Italy has a very poor record against England in Six Nations and RWC warm up, largely due to not being competitive in the pack. SA will bring that same advantage to this RWC Pool game. Line is currently SA -28.5 with tab nz. AB's will blow Italy off the paddock by 45 + so this line looks reasonably well set to me. SA will want nothing less than a dominant performance against the weakest link in Six Nations Rugby, going into quarter finals.

Betting SA - 28.5 half now and half more subject to team announcements.

South Africa last 6
28/09/2019 World Cup Pool B
57 - 3 v Namibia

21/09/2019 World Cup Pool B
13 - 23 v New Zealand

06/09/2019 International
41 - 7 v Japan (a)

17/08/2019 International
24 - 18 v Argentina (h)

10/08/2019 Rugby Championship
46 - 13 v Argentina (a)
27/07/2019 Rugby Championship

16 - 16 v New Zealand (a)

Italy last 6

48 - 7 v Canada RWC

47 - 22 v Namibia RWC

0 - 37 v England (a)

19 - 47 v France (a)

85 - 15 v Russia (h)

10 - 29 v Ireland (a)

R3V3R3NT_ wrote: All over Italy I think you Saffas are in trouble XD

You must be joking they have NO chance of beating us, will win by 15 plus....

hanrick wrote: Two confident handicap picks for me this week. USA +25.5 at 10/11 vs France and Italy +29.5 at 0.89/1 vs South Africa.

Another one I like this week. Georgia +9.5 at 9/10 and 5/2 to win the game. Prediction is for rain during the game and the stadium is very open. Weather will play right into Georgia's forwards' hands and will not suit Fiji's style.

I am gonna be very conservative on money I invest on the French game tomorrow but still find odds that are quite value especially as the weather should dry but windy

France over 4.5 tries @1.80
Picamoles @ 2.5
Guitoune @ 2.63

Agree with you here Bradie, different angle:
France over 37 points
France -23.5

For tomorrow, I've gone for a buy of the USA front 5 try minutes at 10 (sticking with Taufete'e) and Canada hotshots at 8 (not often you get the chance to break even in the event of one of the players phoning in sick)! Both of those with SPIN. Also on Van der Merwe try at 13/2 Skybet.

NZ -64.5 @ 17/20 for me

Ardie Savea wearing his goggles. Photo / Getty - Widely available but did not transfer to here lol

Want to add spice to any multi / acca. Add Couch's call on Ardie Savea to score last try v Canada,currently 17-1 and send any multi into orbit!

NZ-67.5 @ 17/20 Sunbet ( not sure where the 64.5 is but probably can’t get on).

Man of Match Reiko Ioane @ 15/2

Am on NZ minus also, -66 @ 1.91

Have had a much larger bet on Aus -48 @ 1.91 v Uruguay

Here is the possible Aus team:
Dane Haylett-Petty, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Tevita Kuridrani, Kurtley Beale, Jordan Petaia, Matt Toomua, Nic White, Jack Dempsey, David Pocock, Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Adam Coleman, Rob Simmons, Taniela Tupou, Folau Faingaa, James Slipper.

Resting a few, understandably, but Uruguay set to do the same too.

Conditions meant to be good, think this could be a real blowout.

Sunshine Ace wrote: Not sure if this is the right place for this, but hear me out.

This is for the Superbru players , if you picked the exact score as the pre-game odds of Sunbet, e.g game 2, Aus - 16.5 vs Fiji so you pick Aus by 16, with the result being Aus 39 - Fiji 21 ( Aus by 18, the difference being 2,) then out of the first two rounds you would have called 16/18 games correct, with 9/18 games within 5 points, for a total of 20.5 and a TDM of around 186, which would put you just outside of 250th in the world rankings, this should also put in in either first or second spot in most of the Pools ( probably top 6 in WSB Pool).

So my question is, do you continue following the bookies? Or do you try and chase the extra margin points? A lot of punters play in pay to win pools, with Prize money ranging from R500 for the first spot to other pools where the winner takes R15/20K from 1 R750 Buy-in?

Hi Ace. I think for the most part the bookies have been pretty accurate with setting their lines thus far and teams have pretty much performed to expectation (apart from a couple of rank shocks which very few SB players would have predicted). Thus it doesnt come as a big surprise to me that you would have done well if you used the bookie line as your method for predicting thus far.

The big difference would come in if there were to be a couple of "minor upsets" from this point. Thus for instance if Japan were to beat the Scots or Georgia over Fiji you could see yourself lose some ground in your pool by going for the bookies' call as there is bound to be a decent percentage of people going for these semi-upsets. The Quarters could also deliver one or 2 of these.

On your question of sticking to the bookies handicap as your margin thats a tough one - most on this forum will hope that the bookies will be way off on a few so we can have an opportunity to make some money. With fatigue and general mental space with regard to a team's position in the Pool becoming more of a factor toward the latter stages of pool play I think the margins become more difficult for the bookies to get right so perhaps it might not alway be the best option to religiously pick a SB margin right on the handicap line over the next few weeks

hanrick wrote:

hanrick wrote: Two confident handicap picks for me this week. USA +25.5 at 10/11 vs France and Italy +29.5 at 0.89/1 vs South Africa.

Another one I like this week. Georgia +9.5 at 9/10 and 5/2 to win the game. Prediction is for rain during the game and the stadium is very open. Weather will play right into Georgia's forwards' hands and will not suit Fiji's style.

Weather Kintetsu Hannazona Rugby Stadium Thursday October 3, 2019.
According to the forecast below it is sunny sky during game time which is 14.15 JST

Thu 03
Oct 00:00
E
E

8 / 9 km/h 24 / 26°C 71% 1017 mb
49%
0.0 mm
Partly cloudy skies
03:00
E
E

6 / 8 km/h 23 / 25°C 69% 1015 mb
40%
0.0 mm
Partly cloudy skies
06:00
ESE
ESE

7 / 8 km/h 24 / 25°C 66% 1015 mb
9%
0.0 mm
Sunny skies
09:00
SE
SE

8 / 9 km/h 27 / 27°C 55% 1014 mb
7%
0.0 mm
Sunny skies
12:00
SSW
SSW

13 / 15 km/h 31 / 30°C 40% 1012 mb
17%
0.0 mm
Sunny skies
15:00
S
S

17 / 20 km/h 31 / 30°C 42% 1010 mb
48%
0.0 mm
Partly cloudy skies
18:00
SSE
SSE

14 / 17 km/h 28 / 29°C 53% 1010 mb
48%
0.1 mm
Partly cloudy skies
21:00
SSE
SSE

I will post web address for weather forecast so everyone can compare to their own weather site, as weather is important to the style of game to be played. Humidity is high being 55 at 12.00 according to above forecast.

As a huge follower of Fiji Rugby I am expecting a big rebound from the Pacific Islanders. They bring back all the stars from the Team that beat France and ran close against Australia. Uruguay game was out of character and played by a team that proved Fiji does not have any depth beyond the 23.

Betting large Fiji -7.5, subject to confirmation of sunny weather conditions. Cheers 3P

Web site used for Kintetsu Hannazona Rugby Stadium.

www.myweather2.com/Rugby/Japan/Kintetsu-...o-Rugby-Stadium.aspx

Please remove duplicates of post - internet connection did a "Brent"

southpaw wrote: NZ-67.5 @ 17/20 Sunbet ( not sure where the 64.5 is but probably can’t get on).

Man of Match Reiko Ioane @ 15/2

Bettingworld. Line's still there but shortened

shaft wrote: NZ -64.5 @ 17/20 for me

Tempted to add NZ -28.5 first half cap @ evens(!) with GG

shaft wrote:

shaft wrote: NZ -64.5 @ 17/20 for me

Tempted to add NZ -28.5 first half cap @ evens(!) with GG

does my head in when a bookie puts a line right on the sum of a number of converted tries. Not a bad line though.

hanrick wrote:

hanrick wrote: Two confident handicap picks for me this week. USA +25.5 at 10/11 vs France and Italy +29.5 at 0.89/1 vs South Africa.

Another one I like this week. Georgia +9.5 at 9/10 and 5/2 to win the game. Prediction is for rain during the game and the stadium is very open. Weather will play right into Georgia's forwards' hands and will not suit Fiji's style.

Prediction has changed and rain will only come after the game. Temperatures close to 30 degrees and cloudy conditions should see the humidity pretty high. Still confident on Georgia. Might have a fast start by Fiji, but can't see them keeping it up in tough conditions.

bradie82 wrote: I am gonna be very conservative on money I invest on the French game tomorrow but still find odds that are quite value especially as the weather should dry but windy

France over 4.5 tries @1.80
Picamoles @ 2.5
Guitoune @ 2.63

Adding France -21.5 @ 1.80 on 888

Front and third row are physical and mobile and know how to offload (glad to see Iturria back as flanker) Ramos kicking instead of Lopez, and any opportunity to counter attack with that backline could be a threat to USA

Taking France -20.5 at 15/20 at SupaBets.

The French backline will give this Yank defence problems today. Come on Frenchies!

Properly involved on USA +25.5 and +26.5. Also taking under 48.5 total points at 9/10. Reckon conditions will be tough with temperatures in high 20's

God I can’t stand O’Keefe!!

France over 29.5 @ 1.93 on 888
France over 4.5 tries @ 2.20
Over 4.5 tries @ 1.57

Looks like the forum cleaned up there

Bradie I wouldn't be surprised if you smashed your TV screen after 65 mins and then weren't able to watch all your bets come in!

Added Frizell any time @ 1.83 in next game

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM! The Yanks games have been my favourite of this RWC!

The last minute +38.5 cover vs England
And the last minute French cover!

Love you YANKIES!