Rugby: European Cups 15-17 November

Those are the odds for the European Challenge Cup

Toulon @ 5.5 – I already took that one and will repost my explanation below
Tigers @ 7.5 – Poor so far this season and the spectre of relegation could hit them back so should not focus on this competition
Cardiff @ 9 – Can’t see them winning with the quality played so far but they could reach the quarter final
Edinburgh @ 9 – Tough group with Bordeaux and Wasps but have the p[otential to reach semi finals
Scarlets @ 9 – question mark on that one – not sure what will be the involvement
Stade Francais @ 9 – will focus on not getting relegated so no focus at all on this competition
Wasps @ 9 – 5 points in 4 Premiership game, can t see them focusing on this competition
Bristol @ 15 – Interesting odd as I can see them reach the quarter final with Brive and Stade Francais putting B/C squad and Zebre in the pool- might be worth a tenner
Bordeaux @ 15 – Havre the potential and the sqaud to do something but tough group with Edinburgh and Wasps – first gamne against wasps, lets see the squad
Castres @ 15 - should focus on the Top14
Pau @ 21 – Never made that competition a priority so cant see why it would be different this year
Worcester @ 51 – that odd is interesting – could easily get 10 points against Enisei and same against Dragons, Castres should focus on the Top14 and they did play a quarter final last year. Mine put a tenner on it and look for a potential cash out later on

POOL 1

Castres Olympique
Dragons
Enisei-STM
Worcester Warriors

POOL 2

Bayonne
London Irish
RC Toulon
Scarlets

POOL 3

Agen
Bordeaux-Begles
Edinburgh Rugby
Wasps

POOL 4

Bristol Bears
Brive
Stade Francais Paris
Zebre Rugby Club

POOL 5

Cardiff Blues
Leicester Tigers
Pau
Rugby Calvisano



It’s a bit early in the season and not as confident as I was before last game against Lyon but will go with Toulon to win the European Challenge Cup @ 5.5
Toulon is missing 19 players at the moment, and I think Collazo will manage to get the best of this team very soon.
Looking at the group stage, this is almost the easiest one with Bayonne that will not focus at all on the competition, London Irish that might be fighting to avoid relegation and finally Scarlets.
I can see Toulon finishing on top of their group, and with few bonus points, playing quarter final and semi-final at home.
The reason I am going with Toulon is that the final will be played at Marseille, where Toulon plays few games per year, where the crowd would be Toulon Fans and on top of that, the president have made it clear it is a trophy he wants to get at the end of the season.

European Champions Cup

Outright

Leinster @ 3.25
Saracens @ 4
Toulouse @ 7
Clermont @ 8
Exeter @ 15
Munster @ 21
Racing @ 26
Gloucester @ 34
Montpellier @ 34
Sales @ 41

If speculation that Sarries will not play with the Champions Cup their best squad in order to avoid relegation ,then Leinster is clearly favourite for this competition. Munster would then reach the semi-finals, at least, and I could also see Clermont reaching the quarter final. For the rest, Pool 2 and 5 are just unpredictable. Toulouse with the international players back demonstrated how they became champion last year and could reach the quarter final but tough group while betting on Pool 2, where I see La Rochelle as the weakest team, would be a coinflip as anything could happen. The surprise might come from Lyon despite a lack of experience, the rugby played this season so far is amazing.

POOL ODD

POOL 1

Benetton Rugby @ 151
Leinster Rugby @ 1.22
Lyon @ 9
Northampton Saints @ 7

POOL 2

Exeter Chiefs @ 1.5
Glasgow Warriors @ 6.5
La Rochelle @ 8
Sale Sharks @ 7

POOL 3

ASM Clermont Auvergne @ 1.25
Bath Rugby @ 15
Harlequins @ 9
Ulster Rugby @ 8.5

POOL 4

Munster Rugby @ 3.25
Ospreys @ 201
Racing 92 @ 5.5
Saracens @ 1.67

POOL 5

Connacht Rugby @ 31
Gloucester Rugby @ 5.5
Montpellier @ 9
Toulouse @ 3.25

Munster and Toulouse could potentially be interesting, while Montpellier could be a kind of value once all the injured players are back but so far no bet for me.

Round 1

Gloucester -1.5 vs Toulouse
Bath -2.5 vs Ulster
Glasgow -2.5 vs Sale
Leinster -20.5 vs Treviso
La Rochelle +1.5 vs Exeter
Ospreys +9.5 vs Munster
Clermont -11.5 vs Harlequins
Northampton -8.5 vs Lyon
Connacht -1.5 vs Montpellier

I guess the Saracens game won’t be available until team announced.
I m gonna go with Lyon +8.5. As explained earlier, Lyon is playing an amazing rugby this season and despite Saints having a good season so far, I reckon that handicap is slightly too high. The only issue I see is the lack of experience for Lyon.

Been a very profitable run with European rugby, long may it continue.

My plays for the weekend

Clermont -11.5
Quins awful away from home and Clermont will be getting players back. I capped this in the high teens.

Bath outright @8/10

My best bet of the weekend. Bath hitting their straps and game getting played at the Rec. Ulster struggle on the road so expect this game to be no different.

Saints -8.5

I feel as if Bradie's french connection is clouding his judgement on this one. There is no chance that Lyon are able to keep up with Saints. Hutchison and Dingwell have been superb in midfield and will tear up Lyon. Easy pickings.

Munster -9.5

I don't generally back the minus for the away team but Munster are streets ahead of Ospreys. This is more of a stance against Ospreys than backing Munster.

Gloucester outright @ 9/10

Feel as if Gloucester need a bounce back and generally strong at Kingsholm. 2 losses on the bounce will need to reply. Toulouse have been great spearheaded by Ntamack in midfield. I just feel that away from home, it will be different.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts Thoughs.
Agree with you on Bath especially if their full backline is back and also like Munster cap but 10 points away is slightly too high for me.
Now regarding Lyon, indeed I am French (nobody’s perfect) but my bet is based on the quality of rugby they have played so far this season. I am not sure you have seen any Lyon game but trust me, they moved to another level while Saints have been good but not great.
To me, fine with Saints being favourite but I would have given a 3 points cap rather than 9 so have to take it as I reckon it will drop down.

Bought Forward from old thread.

Hi Kirky, You wrote " Thought Sarries mgmt team would buckle a bit"

Looks as if the Team that buckled was Exeter Chiefs. Possible explanation given by Rob Baxter after shock loss to Bristol 17 - 20, blowing a 17 - 0 halftime lead. After all Sarries "Robbed" them of two English Premiership Finals!

Expect strong bounce from Exeter to beat La Rochelle away in Euro Cup. Early bet on H@H @ $1.67, but will add Exeter -6.5 when it comes available. Cheers 3P

Champions Cup has been up since Monday with the bookies, but still no sign of anything to do with the Challenge cup which has 4 games on Friday.
Has it been cancelled or something ?
Even Odds Checker has nix. Anyone know why they're so slow to price up ?

Kirky wrote: Champions Cup has been up since Monday with the bookies, but still no sign of anything to do with the Challenge cup which has 4 games on Friday.
Has it been cancelled or something ?
Even Odds Checker has nix. Anyone know why they're so slow to price up ?

Hi Kirky
This is the same every year - bookies are waiting for the team to be available on Thursday to start pricing.
It is very rare that odds are available prior to the team annoucement so I guess tomorrow afternoon you should see some odds tomorrow afternoon

Have taken Racing -3.5 (@ 0.9) vs Saracens for this weekend.

internationals won't be available for Saracens. Also seems like Sarries will be concentrating on not getting relegated from the Prem, thus will be playing youngsters and fringe squad members in the Heineken cup.

LiveLovePunt wrote: Have taken Racing -3.5 (@ 0.9) vs Saracens for this weekend.

internationals won't be available for Saracens. Also seems like Sarries will be concentrating on not getting relegated from the Prem, thus will be playing youngsters and fringe squad members in the Heineken cup.

Thanks for sharing this info but may I ask if this has been confirmed yet or just an assumption at this stage? Cheers

Just a speculative call for now, however it's based on the following article: www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/nov/10/saracens-premiership

The following are excerpts:

Saracens’ England contingent look like being given the next two weeks off with the club’s director of rugby, Mark McCall, saying that he would be giving the Premiership priority with the threat of relegation real if an appeal is lost and the points’ deduction stands.

“We would have had some conversations anyway because it is unrealistic to think some can come back from five months away and play in a Champions Cup game two weeks after a World Cup final,” said McCall. “I think a number of the players involved today deserve to experience European rugby and it could be a big benefit to us in the long term. "

The above infer that the internationals will not play this week and only return the following week. Also it seems like McCall is keen to blood the club's youngsters in Europe

Barbarians v Fiji this weekend, expecting the BaaBaas to win by 30+. Fiji squad very weak, all star players back at clubs.

southpaw wrote: Barbarians v Fiji this weekend, expecting the BaaBaas to win by 30+. Fiji squad very weak, all star players back at clubs.

Hmm I take this back, this isn’t a massively great looking Barbarians match 23 named today. Good enough to win, just not sure by how much. Interested to see how bookies go on this one.

Perpignan +12 @ 1.91 (available on PP and Betfair)

I found the cap very high for a game between the leader Oyonnax and Perpignan sitting on the third place so far.
Perpignan is coming with a decent squad and with rain and snow forecasted, this could be a very close game

On top of that, Toulon is bringing a very strong squad for the first European game away in Bayonne so confirming the Chalenge Cup will be an objective this season

Adding Toulon @ 1.68 on 888
Cannot find the Bayonne squad but I can't see them focusing on the Challenge Cup and the Toulon squad despite still loads of injured players is very good

Hi Bradie,

Bayonne: 15 Aymeric Luc, 14 Sean Robinson, 13 Peyo Muscarditz (c), 12 Malietoa Hingano, 11 Latu Latunipulu, 10 Manuel Ordas, 9 Michael Ruru, 8 Filimo Taofifenua, 7 Baptiste Heguy, 6 Sione Tau, 5 Edwin Maka, 4 Guillaume Ducat, 3 Jean-Baptiste de Clercq, 2 Torsten van Jaarsveld, 1 Ugo Boniface
Replacements: 16 Maxime Delonca, 17 Swan Cormenier, 18 Toma Taufa, 19 Adam Jaulhac, 20 Arnaud Duputs, 21 Guillaume Rouet, 22 Brandon Fajardo, 23 Maile Mamao

GoGoNoNo wrote: Hi Bradie,

Bayonne: 15 Aymeric Luc, 14 Sean Robinson, 13 Peyo Muscarditz (c), 12 Malietoa Hingano, 11 Latu Latunipulu, 10 Manuel Ordas, 9 Michael Ruru, 8 Filimo Taofifenua, 7 Baptiste Heguy, 6 Sione Tau, 5 Edwin Maka, 4 Guillaume Ducat, 3 Jean-Baptiste de Clercq, 2 Torsten van Jaarsveld, 1 Ugo Boniface
Replacements: 16 Maxime Delonca, 17 Swan Cormenier, 18 Toma Taufa, 19 Adam Jaulhac, 20 Arnaud Duputs, 21 Guillaume Rouet, 22 Brandon Fajardo, 23 Maile Mamao

Thanks GoGoNoNo
Not a team as weak as expected but 12 changes with last game vs Pau and the bench his quite weak so with Toulon’s ambition to win the Cup, I think the motivation and a better squad are enough to beat that Bayonne team

On the Prod2, just seen the Montauban squad that played in Grenoble on Sunday and there is a massive turnover so taking Grenbole -16 @ 1.91 on William Hill

Worcester -13.5 @ 1.82 on 888
Game is played in Kuban Stadium where the forecast is not as bad as expected : 15 degrees and sunny at kick off time
Last year Enisey got smashed with 407 points against in 6 games and the Warriors team despite being young has the depth to win comfortably this game
Hopefully try will be available later on

This seems like huge value. Out of Enisey's last 12 games in europe, they've only covered a +13.5 cap 1/12 times

Joined the Munster minus train earlier in the week, just doubled down my stake after seeing the lineups, which are available for all games here by the way:

www.epcrugby.com/champions-cup/matches/line-ups/

Brad Breath wrote: Joined the Munster minus train earlier in the week, just doubled down my stake after seeing the lineups

Added Munster -4 HT cap @ 1.85 with Bwin

Line is melting, get on quick lads, cap will probably settle around -20

Toulouse over 19.5pts @ 17/20 Sunbet

Worcester over 4.5 tries @ 1.80

4 LEG MULTI
Combine all selected single bets
@ 12.27

Barbarians -17.5@ 1.92
Points Start
Barbarians v Fiji

Exeter Chiefs @ 1.85
Head To Head
La Rochelle v Exeter Chiefs

Saracens +9.5 @ 1.80
Points Start
Racing 92 v Saracens

Bristol -17.5 @ 1.92
Points Start
Bristol v Zebre

SPICY 2 LEG MULTI

@ 17.11 !!!

Saracens (-6.5) @ 5.90
Points Start (a)
Racing 92 v Saracens
Exeter Chiefs (-6.5) @ 2.90
Points Start (a)
La Rochelle v Exeter Chiefs

Saracens "B" has enough internationals to beat a struggling French Top 14 team. Things are not as bad at Sarries as believed. Investments made by Sarries with/ for players not exactly covered by salary cap rules. Collected last week on Sarries -6.5 and looking to repeat. Cheers 3P

Brent your nemesis team, France has a new defence coach.

World Cup-winning coach Clive Woodward has declared France as the “team to beat in four years’ time” after Shaun Edwards was confirmed as their defence coach.

I think everyone enjoyed your England banter this RWC year, while wishing you to lose.

Here is a chance to repeat with France, currently paying 9-1 for RWC 2023.

Good luck with the poker tournament, though Oracle proclaims you will need a Miracle.

Nice result on Toulouse last night and looking for a few strikes today. First one down -

Fiji over 22.5 Pts @ 17/20. Feel that’s a try too short and even if Barbarians win well I think Fiji get in the points.

Bath vs Ulster under 49.5 @ 1.71

I find this cut too high

Glasgow vs Sale
Over 4,5 tries @ 1.62 on Skybet

Acca placed earlier in the week @ 6.30
Exeter win
Munster -10
Leinster -21

IMO a very poor Barbarians team. Main bet Barbarians under 44.5 points at 0.89/1 and half the stake total points under 69.5 at 9/10

Hi Bradie,
Thank you for your coverage of the Euro Cups, in particular for bringing us up to speed on Lyon.
Due to RWC have not seen a single Lyon game, as not one of my favoured Top 14 Teams. Have a four and a five straight multi dependent on Saints winning ( I almost always add any favoured NZ Coach, in this case Chris Boyd, playing at home plus bookie / algorithm favourite into multis). You have taken Lyon +8.5 and given top of table Top 14 status, deservedly so. They must be a serious chance of winning? Pretty sure I am going to hedge my multis with a H2H on Lyon as paying almost 3 to 1. If you catch this post, your advice would be greatly appreciated. Cheers 3P

Hi 3p
Yes I am a strong believer in Lyon to stay within the handicap and the squad selected with the return of Gill and Fearns, an electric backline keep me in that direction. Forecast is dry today so its a good news with the type of game Lyon has been playing so far this season. I have not been impressed by Saints so far, could not get a win in Bath last week despite a red card for Bath, and I can see them struggling a bit today.
That said, 2 points to be raised : first of all, and as I said earlier, there is a lack of experience in European rugby for Lyon and we ve seen the result last year with 6 games lost. On top of that, I ve been reading that the H cup was clearly not an objective this season but a direct semi final spot in top14 is so will they play 100% as they do in top14, not sure, but can t see them not fighting hard on the first game.
If I was in your shoes, I would cover my bets by taking Lyon (and the draw), watch the game and get the benefits no matter whats the score at the end of the game.

Healthy sized bets on:

Reinach anytime @ 3/1
First tryscorer @ 16/1
Double @ 25/1
Hattrick @ 150/1

He should be closer to evens imo. All with Bet365.

Small interest on Delhommel anytime @ 6 on skybet
Connacht defended maul poorly against Leinster last week end and Montpellier very good when close to the try line

Thanks Bradie, Took the insurance on Lyon with HTH & some -4.5. Not needed, but definitely the smart move. Had no insurance bet on England when I had a long term bet on AB v SA RWC final. Learnt my lesson, just hate to bet against the Blacks. Loving Euro Cups so far. Racing 92 far better than i expected against Sarries "B". Everything else Hunky Dory. Have added a little Bristol for the Challenge Cup at $10. Cheers 3P

PS: Even after two years assistant with the Crusaders O'Gara does not seem to be ready for Head Coach @ La Rochelle.