ATP Finals - London

Just in case I may find some time to post a couple of bets...

Medvedev vs Tsitsipas

Medvedev has had a great year, reaching six consecutive finals, winning three titles and three runner-ups, the one at US Open being a memorable one, as he came back from 0-2 to lose 2-3 to Nadal.

Tsitsipas has had a great year himself, having won two ATP titles and in the lead up to this tournament he played a final in Beijing, two semifinals (Shanghai and Basel) and a quarterfinal (Paris).

However, the H2H stands at 5-0 to Medvedev. Still, every match was a long one, Tsitsipas taking a set each time, except the last meeting in Shanghai last month, when he lost in two sets, but they were long ones (7-6 7-5).

It seems that Tsitsipas may have a mental block when he plays Medvedev, and this being such a big stage, with Medvedev the most in form representative of the new wave, it may be even harder for Tsitsipas to overcome it, so I'm going with Medvedev to win.

Given the special rules of this tournament, I'm taking a small bet on the handicap, and given the history of long matches between these two players, I'm taking an overs bet too.

Bet 1: Medvedev -2.5 @1.72.
Bet 2: Total games over 22.5 @1.80.

Nadal vs Zverev

Nadal leads the H2H 5-0.
Zverev won this tournament last year, and instead of building up on it, he disappointed in general this year, and he certainly left a lot to be desired from him at the big tournaments and Grand Slams.

If Nadal is healthy (he withdrew with abdominal injury last week in Paris), he should win this. He has never won this tournament and he wants it.

The matches between these two players have been long as well.
The (-2.5) handicap is too low priced and I don't like the (-3.5), so I'm going for an over here, as well as a double Nadal + Medvedev.

Bet: Total games over 22.5 @1.90,

Medvedev @1.40 + Nadal @1.44
Double @2.02

Cabal/Farah vs Herbert/Mahut

These two pairs have met five times in the past, and their matches have been long. Although only one match went to three sets, all of them had a tie-break or a long set (7-5).

Both of these pairs are coming into this tournament in good form, having recently won the US Open and ATP Paris, respectively.

I think we're in for a long match.

Bet: Over 20.5 games @1.83

Pune Challenger

Kalenichenko vs Duckworth

Duckworth is ranked 111 and he is targetting direct entry into the main draw at the Australian Open. He won 3 challenger tournaments this year and played the finals in 3 others.
His record on hard courts this year is 34-17.

Kalenichenko is ranked 531 and has never been higher than 480. He played at a few challenger tournaments this year and he hardly reached the second round in a couple.

There is an obvious class difference between these two players.

Bet 1: Duckworth win and Under 18.5 games @1.95
Bet 2: Duckworth -5.5 @1.72

Federer vs Berretttini

Federer lost in the first round to Thiem in two tight sets. He called that a "first round hiccup".
Obviously, we expect Fed to bounce back and beat Berrettini comfortably, as not only this is a must win for him, but he also needs the games difference to qualify from this group, which all of a sudden has become even more difficult.

Berrettini was dispatched so fast and apparently easy by Djokovic, 6-2 6-1, that qualifying from this group, or obtaining any result here, is a huge task already. What can he do against Federer?

The bookies seem to think that he might give Federer a match, as they put Federer's handicap -4.5 at huge odds (2.10), total games at over 21.5, which not only means that there will be a long set or a tie-break, but also at lower odds than under, Fed to win less than 12.5 games at huge odds again (2.10), which means that he will have a long match, and a 2-0 win by Fed at the huge odds of 1.50, considering the difference in class between them. :scratch:

Given that Fed is still playing at top levels (lost an epic final at Wimbledon to Djoker, just won Basel without losing a set, defeating Tsitsipas and De Minaur in shorter sets than the total games today), I'm taking him to have a short day at the office tonight.

Bet 1: Fed -4.5 @2.10
Bet 2: Fed win and under 21.5 games @2.10
Bet 3: Fed under 12.5 games @2.10

All low stakes due to bookies fear

Still on the beers guys but nothing else to watch tonight so will be enjoying some tennis - Smalls on
Djoko v Thiem
Over 22.5 games @ 14/10
and
Player trails 0-1 set and wins match @ 28/1
AND
Many thanks to Quill for running this thread.

The Vann wrote: Still on the beers guys but nothing else to watch tonight so will be enjoying some tennis - Smalls on
Djoko v Thiem
Over 22.5 games @ 14/10
and
Player trails 0-1 set and wins match @ 28/1
AND
Many thanks to Quill for running this thread.

Just noticed slight cock-up on last nights odds. The set bet was at 5/1. The third evening beer at 28/1 was on Thiem winning the second set 7-6 which lost. Old noggin was not fully operational after sundowners but at least they were paid for by the book.

The Vann wrote: Still on the beers guys but nothing else to watch tonight so will be enjoying some tennis - Smalls on
Djoko v Thiem
Over 22.5 games @ 14/10
and
Player trails 0-1 set and wins match @ 28/1

....

Wow, this! Whatta bet!

Challenger Pune

Goveas vs Nagal

Goveas is sitting in the depths of the ranking system, playing mainly futures and even so, having a negative W-L on hard: 13-18.

Nagal, ranked 127, played qualifications and got into the main draw at US Open and took a set off Federer.
I expect him to make light work of Goveas.

Bet: Under 19.5 games @1.83

Quill wrote:

The Vann wrote: Still on the beers guys but nothing else to watch tonight so will be enjoying some tennis - Smalls on
Djoko v Thiem
Over 22.5 games @ 14/10
and
Player trails 0-1 set and wins match @ 28/1

....

Wow, this! Whatta bet!

Sadly a dud post - See above. But will take the win anyway

Quill wrote: Challenger Pune

Goveas vs Nagal

Goveas is sitting in the depths of the ranking system, playing mainly futures and even so, having a negative W-L on hard: 13-18.

Nagal, ranked 127, played qualifications and got into the main draw at US Open and took a set off Federer.
I expect him to make light work of Goveas.

Bet: Under 19.5 games @1.83

FT 3-6 6-7
Nagal was leading 5-4 in the second set and was serving and he lost his serve and went on to tie-break

ATP Finals - Doubles

Cabal/Farah vs Rojer/Tecau

These are two of the top doubles in the world. Both pairs have been there in the top 10 and even top 5 and playing together for many years now, both of them won ATP tournaments and Grand Slams.

They played each other 9 times so far, Rojer/Tecau leading 5-4.
In all their encounters both pairs won at least one set, and in two instances only, when the match ended in two sets, one of the sets went to tie-break.
So there is a good history of long matches between these two pairs.
This year they met at Wimbledon and Cabal/Farah won 3-2.

Also, they both lost in the first round here, so they will go for the win tonight.
In terms of form, Cabal/Farah just won the US Open, while Rojer/Tecau just won in Basel.

I expect a long match again.

Bet: Over 21.5 games @1.90

Nadal vs Medvedev

OK, Nadal is a dog and he's not playing Djoko or Federer.
The bookies are quick to jump at his throat after a defeat to someone other than the big three. However, he lost to Zverev, the current champion here, who began the year at number 3, not he didn't lose to just anyone.

Both Nadal and Medvedev lost their first round matches 0-2.
None of them were able to find answers to break through Zverev and Tsitsipas, respectively.
Both of them lost to their opponents for the first time in 6 matches, both after having won the first 5 encounters.

Nadal withdrew from Paris with that abdominal injury, but he said that that was not the problem at all, he did not feel any abdominal pain. It was just that Sascha played well and he didn't.

Medvedev on the other hand, after reaching six consecutive finals winning three of them, skipped his home tournament in Moscow and he may have got out of rhythm. In Paris he lost in the first round to Chardy, and here he lost to Tsitsipas, as I said above.
He said that he was missing something both physically and mentally, as he did not have enough good energy to win.
Most importantly however, he said that the way he has been practicing the last few weeks he noticed that he was no longer at the level he had been playing before, that he lost the momentum a little bit, and he is struggling to find it, to get back to the level he was at the US Open, Shanghai and St Petersburg.

Both of them are in a must win situation, and given Nadal's fighting spirit, and having played here one match already, and having had one day of rest, should help him.

Also, if he said that he is not injured, we should believe him, no?

Bet 1: Nadal @2.10
Bet 2: Nadal +1.5 @1.83

Tsitsipas vs Zverev

Both players are coming after big wins, so their confidence restored, this should be a good match.
Tsitsipas played very good tennis to defeat Medvedev, a player who has reached great heights this year.
He won without having to save a single break point.

Zverev beat Nadal quite easily, 6-2 6-4.

These two players met four times before, with Tsitsipas leading 3-1. Both players played great tennis in the first round and both are in very good form.
I expect a tight match, with many games, even three sets.

Bet 1: Over 23.5 games @1.89
Bet 2: Total sets - 3 sets @2.37

Quill wrote: Nadal vs Medvedev

OK, Nadal is a dog and he's not playing Djoko or Federer.
The bookies are quick to jump at his throat after a defeat to someone other than the big three. However, he lost to Zverev, the current champion here, who began the year at number 3, not he didn't lose to just anyone.

Both Nadal and Medvedev lost their first round matches 0-2.
None of them were able to find answers to break through Zverev and Tsitsipas, respectively.
Both of them lost to their opponents for the first time in 6 matches, both after having won the first 5 encounters.

Nadal withdrew from Paris with that abdominal injury, but he said that that was not the problem at all, he did not feel any abdominal pain. It was just that Sascha played well and he didn't.

Medvedev on the other hand, after reaching six consecutive finals winning three of them, skipped his home tournament in Moscow and he may have got out of rhythm. In Paris he lost in the first round to Chardy, and here he lost to Tsitsipas, as I said above.
He said that he was missing something both physically and mentally, as he did not have enough good energy to win.
Most importantly however, he said that the way he has been practicing the last few weeks he noticed that he was no longer at the level he had been playing before, that he lost the momentum a little bit, and he is struggling to find it, to get back to the level he was at the US Open, Shanghai and St Petersburg.

Both of them are in a must win situation, and given Nadal's fighting spirit, and having played here one match already, and having had one day of rest, should help him.

Also, if he said that he is not injured, we should believe him, no?

Bet 1: Nadal @2.10
Bet 2: Nadal +1.5 @1.83

He came back from the dead!
Whatta comeback!!

I was watching in disbelief and then he clawed his way back.
Wow, whatta playa!

ATP Finals Doubles

Kubot/Melo vs Ram/Salisbury

Both pairs must win to qualify. Both doubles defeated Dodig/Polasek 2-1, and both lost to Klaasen/Venus 0-2.

They played three times against each other so far, all matches this year, last two of them took 3 sets and the first one only 2 sets, but with a tie-break.

Given the high stakes in play and that they normally play long, tight matches, I'm going for a long one here too.
The thing with the number of games at this competition is that some bookies will consider the match tie-break only as one game. The match tie-break is the third set at this competition. So if the first two sets end up in a 6-4 6-4 kind of score, we don't get the over 21.5 as a winner. So I'm going for 3 sets.

Bet: Number of sets - 3 sets @2.50

For bookies that do not consider the match tie-break as one game, here's the total games over bet:
Over 21.5 games @2.00

Medvedev vs Zverev

Zverev caught Nadal off guard when he beat him in the first round. Nadal was coming after injury and break, without enough time to prepare. As we saw, when he got into playing mood, he won two very hard matches. Tsitsipas was already qualified and he played as if his going through depended on this match.

Theoretically he should not have been motivated, right? However, he gave Nadal a good fight.

Zverev, as I was saying, was lucky to catch Nadal like that, because, as we saw, he lost the second match easily to Tsitsipas 6-3 6-2. Zverev has not been in great form in this tournament.

Medvedev, even though he lost his matches, he played well, he fought hard, he was unlucky. He lost to Tsitsipas 7-6 6-4, then to Nadal in an epic match.

Medvedev beat Zverev in the final in Shanghai last month, 6-4 6-1.

Even the bookies are hesitant to make Zverev a favourite. If Zverev was almost sure to win, the bookies should've made him 1.50 odds or less.

I'm putting beer money on a Medvedev win @2.05.

Forgot to add that Nadal apologized to Medvedev: "Honestly, I have been super lucky, that's the real thing," Nadal said. "Sorry to Daniil, it is a tough loss, he was playing much better than me in the third.

"Today is one of these things where one out of 1000 you win."

Medvedev v Zverev
Over 30.5 games @ 5/2

ATP Final
Tsitsipas vs Thiem

These two players have played a great tournament in London. They both beat Federer, both beat the current champion, Zverev, and Thiem also beat Djokovic.
Both players have had a great year and they both look like future Grand Slam winners.
Last time they met was in the final in Beijing last month, when Thiem won in three sets.
They should give us a good final here.

Bet: Over 23.5 games @1.90

Thiem 2-1 Sets @ 33/10