European Rugby 22-24 Nov

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4 years 4 months ago #1 by LiveLovePunt
European Rugby 22-24 Nov was created by LiveLovePunt
European Champions Cup markets are out for this weekend:

Ulster +2 v Clermont
Benetton +5 v Saints
Saracens -23 v Ospreys
Toulouse -21 v Connacht
Exeter -11 v Glasgow
Lyon +7 v Leinster
Quins -4 v Bath
Munster -5 v Racing
Sale -12 v La Rochelle
Montpellier -7 v Gloucester

Early thoughts are that I like Saints and Leinster on their respective minuses
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4 years 4 months ago #2 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
B365 opened with Toulouse -17 so I jumped on that, now out to -21

Will wait for teams before firing, but against all logic I fancy the Ospreys plus also.

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4 years 4 months ago #3 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Eloooo everyone. The #BettingStig making a first appearance. I have fun making handicap pics and hoping so will you.

Early doors on the Euro Champions Cup have me going as follows:

Uls v Cle 1.5
Bet plus

Ben v Nor -7.5
Bet plus

Sar 22.5 v Osp
Bet plus

Tls 20.5 v Con
Bet plus

Lyo v Lei 6.5
Bet minus

Exe 10.5 v Gla
Bet plus

Mun 4.5 v Rac
Bet plus

Har 3.5 v Bat
Bet plus

Sal 11.5 v LaR
Bet minus

Mon 6.5 v Glo
Bet plus

Updates to follow on Thursday/Friday depending on when teams are announced and how the lines move.

Happy hunting everyone!

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4 years 4 months ago #4 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
888 and Unibet both have Glasgow +20.5 @ 1.82 available while it is 10.5 elsewhere - worth a shot imo

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4 years 4 months ago - 4 years 4 months ago #5 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
I'm expecting to get 7/10, tell me which 3 I got wrong and why?
Last edit: 4 years 4 months ago by TheBettingStig.

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4 years 4 months ago #6 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Will Greenwood wrote, "As for Lyon, who knows? They are flying high in the Top 14 - top of the stack in fact, with eight wins from nine. They have the new kid on the block at tighthead, Demba Bamba, and two flyers in Josua Tuisova and Noa Nakaitaci on the wings, with a goal kicking wizard at 10 in Jonathan Wisniewski. Even so, given they are in such a good position in the Top 14 - a trophy all French teams would prefer to win over European competitions - I just don't see them 'going for it".

Early Easy Bet Leinster away -5.5, leaving Lyon to focus on Top 14!! Cheers 3P
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4 years 4 months ago - 4 years 4 months ago #7 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

TheBettingStig wrote: I'm expecting to get 7/10, tell me which 3 I got wrong and why?


Uls v Cle 1.5
Bet plus

Ben v Nor -7.5 Bet + X tab nz has Nor -5.5. Kiwi Coached Northampton will follow impressive win against Lyon last week with an away win against Kiwi Coached Benetton.

Sar 22.5 v Osp
Bet plus

Tls 20.5 v Con Bet + X Bundee Aki! 20.5 pts far too many. Wait on team selections


Lyo v Lei 6.5
Bet minus

Exe 10.5 v Gla
Bet plus

Mun 4.5 v Rac Bet + X Racing were the business v Sarries B last week. Wait on Teams.


Har 3.5 v Bat Bet + X Neither side has shown me much - in the too hard basket.


Sal 11.5 v LaR
Bet minus

Mon 6.5 v Glo
Bet plus

GOOD LUCK STIG. My only live bet so far is Leinster -5.5 Cheers 3P
Last edit: 4 years 4 months ago by threepeat.
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4 years 4 months ago #8 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

threepeat wrote: Early Easy Bet Leinster away -5.5, leaving Lyon to focus on Top 14!! Cheers 3P


I've jumped on that too 3P. I think the loss of a tank like Basteraux hurts any team on top of what Will Greenwood says..

I also like Clermont -1.5.
Northampton 1-12.
Montpellier -8.5.

Had a good weekend last, and feel confidence growing a bit...
Do you think Sarries will start bringing their big guns back this week, or saving their powder for relegation battle in Premiership ? Although Ospreys are rubbish, +24 might be good pickings ?
Thanks for your tips - they're always good value :beer
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4 years 4 months ago #9 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
@ 3P - were you really impressed by Sains last week end? To me, Lyon lost the game rather than Sains won it - It took 30 minutes for Lyon to enter the game and the score was already 19-0, then they missed 2 opportunities that they normally score in top14 and the second half has been a one way game and a penalty try and yellow card should have been awarded earlier. Finally, Saints have been playing counter attack most of the game and nothing much more than that so not really impressed at all.

@ Kirky : Sarries will not to appeal the 35 points deduction so I guess the focus will be on the Premiership only but Ospreys are so poor that I would not take the risk to bet on the H+ and would rather skip that game.
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4 years 4 months ago #10 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Update

Uls v Cle 1.5
Bet minus

Mon 6.5 v Glo
Bet minus

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4 years 4 months ago #11 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

bradie82 wrote: @ 3P - were you really impressed by Saints last week end? To me, Lyon lost the game rather than Saints won it - It took 30 minutes for Lyon to enter the game and the score was already 19-0, then they missed 2 opportunities that they normally score in top14 and the second half has been a one way game and a penalty try and yellow card should have been awarded earlier. Finally, Saints have been playing counter attack most of the game and nothing much more than that so not really impressed at all.

Hi Bradie, Constructive criticism is always welcome here (unlike some posters here who have a different philosophy, lol). I am always trying to pick up intel that will make for better punting decisions. I am very interested in what you have to say about Lyon this week. I have already bet Leinster -5.5 and will add to that bet unless I get other intel. In relation to Northampton last week v Lyon, I was impressed with Saints running up a very comfortable 19- zip lead at half time against Top of the Table Top 14 Lyon (with 8 of 9 wins in Top 14!). Result never in doubt, finishing 25-14. Northampton even able to run on a couple of rusty former AB's from the bench. My impression was enhanced by that game being the sixth leg in my six game Euro Cup multi! Keep the French intel coming Bradie, your opinions are much appreciated, even when they differ from mine. Adding Northampton-5.5 this weekend v Benetton, despite being a Keiran Crowley fan. Cheers 3P

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4 years 4 months ago #12 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Most points European Champions Cup

With Owen Farrell and Handre Pollard out of the running having an "interest bet" on Saints @ Wales player Dan Bigger @ 11-1. Can still get 4-1 on favourite Jonathan Sexton - but not sure about his hamstrings?!

Rank Player Team Apps Points
1 Wales Dan Biggar Northampton Saints 1 20
2 Ireland Garry Ringrose Leinster 1 15
3 France Morgan Parra Clermont 1 14
France Thomas Ramos Toulouse 1 14
4 New Zealand Tyler Bleyendaal Munster 1 12
Ireland John Cooney Ulster 1 12
5 Ireland Jonathan Sexton Leinster 1 11
6 England Danny Cipriani Gloucester 1 10
France Maxime Machenaud Racing 92 1 10
France BenoƮt Paillaugue Montpellier 1 10
France Alivereti Raka Clermont 1 10
France Thibaut Regard Lyon 1 10
England Joe Simpson Gloucester 1 10
Fiji Peceli Yato Clermont 1 10

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4 years 4 months ago #13 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
The reason I joined this forum is to beta test an algorithm which I've written to beat the bookie on the handicaps. So if all goes according to plan #BettingStigPicks will become a weekly feature with results posted afterwards both for the weekend and cumulatively for the various tournaments.

Euro rugby week 1 this past weekend went relatively successfull with 7/10 on the Championship and 8/10 on the Challenge Cup achieved. The immediate goal is to achieve a consistant success rate of between 60% and 70% across any and all tournaments, and the end goal is to design a user friendly app interface which can then be used by punters everywhere.

Thumbs up!

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4 years 4 months ago - 4 years 4 months ago #14 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Hi Bradie and 3P, you guys are having a relevant, constructive, and entertaining discussion. :) Great stuff.

For novices like me, and probably anyone else too, itā€™s good to see both sides of a position from guys who know their stuff. As things stand Iā€™m in the 3P camp on Leinster, to which debate Iā€™d like to add that Lyon must travel 5 days after Leinster to face Montpellier in their Top14.
I already took Leinster -4.5 here and like 3P I will add to that, primarily because I like Leinster by 13+, but also largely still intel dependant.

I would appreciate both your opinions on the Montpellier game on Sunday, considering they will face these same Top14 log leaders Lyon 6 days later: How hard will they fight against Gloucester, who are desperate to get some points on the board ? And how deep is their squad ? Iā€™m seeing a possible upset here ā€“ anyone else seeing it ?
Or: Am I overthinking this ? (I have been known to overthink) :unsure: After all, all of the teams have games next week, and everyone needs to get up for their local leagues again. I would appreciate you guys opinions on this issue..

Bradie, my opinion on Sarries is that they will turn their back on this Champions Cup (contempt maybe ?) and slaughter all before them in the Premiership. They have 18 weeks to avoid relegation, which they should do with ease (max points per game ?), and then ā€˜reallyā€™ prove their point. Next week, whatever the minus against Bath, Iā€™ll be all over it. I think Nigel Wray will just pay up the 5mill, and that heā€™s already found a better way to compensate his players above the salary cap, and those guys - Itoge, Farrell, the Vuniā€™s, etc. will trample all before them on his behalf. Iā€™m going (small) on the Ospreys +23.5 and maybe when I see the teams I'll add something.

Mr Stig, welcome to the forum. We have a massive hole left by our SouHem pundits: Oracle, Brent, Hanrick, and Couch, which badly needs filling, and which The Conductor, Bradie and 3P are valiantly attempting to fill. We will treasure your opinions and the inputs from your algorithms, which results will be hugely interesting to say the least. :woohoo:

Ahemā€¦ Do your algorithms say anything yet about the Challenge Cup at this stage, before the bookies price up ? I made some real good pickings off the challenge cup last week..

"London Irish" :woohoo:

Happy hunting guys, keep the discussion flowing please..:beer
Last edit: 4 years 4 months ago by Kirky. Reason: more thought
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4 years 4 months ago #15 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

threepeat wrote: Hi Bradie, Constructive criticism is always welcome here (unlike some posters here who have a different philosophy, lol). I am always trying to pick up intel that will make for better punting decisions. I am very interested in what you have to say about Lyon this week. I have already bet Leinster -5.5 and will add to that bet unless I get other intel. In relation to Northampton last week v Lyon, I was impressed with Saints running up a very comfortable 19- zip lead at half time against Top of the Table Top 14 Lyon (with 8 of 9 wins in Top 14!). Result never in doubt, finishing 25-14. Northampton even able to run on a couple of rusty former AB's from the bench. My impression was enhanced by that game being the sixth leg in my six game Euro Cup multi! Keep the French intel coming Bradie, your opinions are much appreciated, even when they differ from mine. Adding Northampton-5.5 this weekend v Benetton, despite being a Keiran Crowley fan. Cheers 3P


Hi 3P
Always a pleasure to share what I hope is constructive feedback and despite being on different page on the Saints, sometimes another pair of eyes is required to see the true reality of the pitch.
That said, I will not make any move on the Lyon vs Leinster game until I see the Lyon squad. First impression is that the Leinster -4.5 is the right move but that Leinster team against Treviso was far from the ones reaching the final last year. Not sure if this is post WC tiredness or just a team playing it soft to avoid injuries but not heavily impressed while on the other hand I liked the way Treviso play and if the cap for Treviso reaches 8 or 9, I will give it a go.
The over points on the Lyon game could be the right move but once again, will depend on the squad selection

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4 years 4 months ago - 4 years 4 months ago #16 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

Kirky wrote: Hi Bradie and 3P, you guys are having a relevant, constructive, and entertaining discussion. :) Great stuff.

For novices like me, and probably anyone else too, itā€™s good to see both sides of a position from guys who know their stuff. As things stand Iā€™m in the 3P camp on Leinster, to which debate Iā€™d like to add that Lyon must travel 5 days after Leinster to face Montpellier in their Top14.
I already took Leinster -4.5 here and like 3P I will add to that, primarily because I like Leinster by 13+, but also largely still intel dependant.


Lyon can easily ā€œskipā€ the Montpellier game or do a rotation as they have the depth to do so. I shared my view on the previous post, squad selection will be key here and the total points (Lyon scores loads at home and Leinster defence was not exceptional last week end / or a drop goal scored if Wisniewski is starting).
To come back on one of your point, I donā€™t think Bastareaud will miss that much as he was playing number 8 and did not play all the games. His leadership could be a miss but even that, I think Lyon has some other players that can easily do that job.

Kirky wrote: I would appreciate both your opinions on the Montpellier game on Sunday, considering they will face these same Top14 log leaders Lyon 6 days later: How hard will they fight against Gloucester, who are desperate to get some points on the board ? And how deep is their squad ? Iā€™m seeing a possible upset here ā€“ anyone else seeing it ?
Or: Am I overthinking this ? (I have been known to overthink) :unsure: After all, all of the teams have games next week, and everyone needs to get up for their local leagues again. I would appreciate you guys opinions on this issue..


Montpellier by losing at Connacht will have no choice but to win the game to stay alive in this tournament and Gloucester was quite poor against Sarries and Toulouse. On the team news side, Picamoles should be back for this game, Nadolo could be as well, Bismark should start, question mark around Steyn. Cruden and Jeannie du Plessis both out of the squad as their contract finished.

Kirky wrote: Bradie, my opinion on Sarries is that they will turn their back on this Champions Cup (contempt maybe ?) and slaughter all before them in the Premiership. They have 18 weeks to avoid relegation, which they should do with ease (max points per game ?), and then ā€˜reallyā€™ prove their point. Next week, whatever the minus against Bath, Iā€™ll be all over it. I think Nigel Wray will just pay up the 5mill, and that heā€™s already found a better way to compensate his players above the salary cap, and those guys - Itoge, Farrell, the Vuniā€™s, etc. will trample all before them on his behalf. Iā€™m going (small) on the Ospreys +23.5 and maybe when I see the teams I'll add something.


Agree with you on the Sarries but they could also introduce few players to get them some time before putting the strong squad next week. The easy target on the Aviva will be the bonus point for Sarries but not available (except if over 3.5 tries or less pre game)
Last edit: 4 years 4 months ago by bradie82.
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4 years 4 months ago #17 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

threepeat wrote: Most points European Champions Cup

With Owen Farrell and Handre Pollard out of the running having an "interest bet" on Saints @ Wales player Dan Bigger @ 11-1. Can still get 4-1 on favourite Jonathan Sexton - but not sure about his hamstrings?!

Rank Player Team Apps Points
1 Wales Dan Biggar Northampton Saints 1 20
2 Ireland Garry Ringrose Leinster 1 15
3 France Morgan Parra Clermont 1 14
France Thomas Ramos Toulouse 1 14
4 New Zealand Tyler Bleyendaal Munster 1 12
Ireland John Cooney Ulster 1 12
5 Ireland Jonathan Sexton Leinster 1 11
6 England Danny Cipriani Gloucester 1 10
France Maxime Machenaud Racing 92 1 10
France BenoƮt Paillaugue Montpellier 1 10
France Alivereti Raka Clermont 1 10
France Thibaut Regard Lyon 1 10
England Joe Simpson Gloucester 1 10
Fiji Peceli Yato Clermont 1 10


I reckon you need to go for a team that will at least reach the quarter final (Leinster, Munster, Racing, Toulouse, Clermont, Exeter,ā€¦) and then a player that will play most of the game ā€“Munster have 2-3 fly halves, Toulouse have 2-3 different kickers, Biggar should not reach the quarter final, ā€¦ the value would be on Parra (not sure what are the odds) as he should be playing all the games and Sexton that despite getting old, will be focusing only on main games so could be a good choice also

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4 years 4 months ago #18 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

TheBettingStig wrote: Bet plusI'm expecting to get 7/10, tell me which 3 I got wrong and why?


Uls v Cle 1.5
Bet plus
I would have gone minus here ā€“ Clermont is on fire with the international back, Penaud might be back but question mark as he missed last game due to a training injury where he lost 2 teeth and got 20 stiches

Ben v Nor -7.5
Bet plus
Agree

Sar 22.5 v Osp
Bet plus
This is a coinflip

Tls 20.5 v Con
Bet plus
Agree

Lyo v Lei 6.5
Bet minus
No view on it yet

Exe 10.5 v Gla
Bet plus
Agree

Mun 4.5 v Rac
Bet plus
Munster at home should win this game by more than 5 points. Racing better with international back but played two ā€œweak sidesā€ (Stade Francais and Saracens)

Har 3.5 v Bat
Bet plus
No view on it yet

Sal 11.5 v LaR
Bet minus
No view on it yet

Mon 6.5 v Glo
Bet plus
I will go with Montpellier here as Gloucester has been poor recently and Montpellier desperate for a good win at home

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4 years 4 months ago #19 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

TheBettingStig wrote: The reason I joined this forum is to beta test an algorithm which I've written to beat the bookie on the handicaps. So if all goes according to plan #BettingStigPicks will become a weekly feature with results posted afterwards both for the weekend and cumulatively for the various tournaments.

Euro rugby week 1 this past weekend went relatively successfull with 7/10 on the Championship and 8/10 on the Challenge Cup achieved. The immediate goal is to achieve a consistant success rate of between 60% and 70% across any and all tournaments, and the end goal is to design a user friendly app interface which can then be used by punters everywhere.

Thumbs up!


Thanks for sharing your results and looking forward for your Challenge Cup predictions

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4 years 4 months ago #20 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
That's some great advice right there Bradie. Thanks very much.

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4 years 4 months ago #21 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Well I can tell you guys I know already which 10 challenge cup teams the models project to have the highest probability of success however, I wouldn't want to help the books in any way by making this info publicly available before they even price up.

Let them make the first move, then I'll tell you guys where they most likely got it wrong :-)

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4 years 4 months ago #22 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
BATH +4.5 @ 9/10 best bet of weekend. Get on.
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4 years 4 months ago - 4 years 4 months ago #23 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

southpaw wrote: BATH +4.5 @ 9/10 best bet of weekend. Get on.


Done it South.
Must wonder what's going on as Sportingbet have removed the game from their options.
Did like the bet beforehand as have Bath to win on Superbru, but wasn't ready to pull the trigger - did now.
Cheers.
Last edit: 4 years 4 months ago by Kirky.

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4 years 4 months ago #24 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

TheBettingStig wrote: Well I can tell you guys I know already which 10 challenge cup teams the models project to have the highest probability of success however, I wouldn't want to help the books in any way by making this info publicly available before they even price up.

Let them make the first move, then I'll tell you guys where they most likely got it wrong :-)


Agree that you should not share anything here but shame as I have made some predictions and would be keen to see what your model is projecting in order to compare

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4 years 4 months ago #25 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

bradie82 wrote:

TheBettingStig wrote: Bet plusI'm expecting to get 7/10, tell me which 3 I got wrong and why?


Uls v Cle 1.5
Bet plus
I would have gone minus here ā€“ Clermont is on fire with the international back, Penaud might be back but question mark as he missed last game due to a training injury where he lost 2 teeth and got 20 stiches

Ben v Nor -7.5
Bet plus
Agree

Sar 22.5 v Osp
Bet plus
This is a coinflip

Tls 20.5 v Con
Bet plus
Agree

Lyo v Lei 6.5
Bet minus
No view on it yet

Exe 10.5 v Gla
Bet plus
Agree

Mun 4.5 v Rac
Bet plus
Munster at home should win this game by more than 5 points. Racing better with international back but played two ā€œweak sidesā€ (Stade Francais and Saracens)

Har 3.5 v Bat
Bet plus
No view on it yet

Sal 11.5 v LaR
Bet minus
No view on it yet

Mon 6.5 v Glo
Bet plus
I will go with Montpellier here as Gloucester has been poor recently and Montpellier desperate for a good win at home


Thx, I did issue an update earlier, to back both Clermont and Montpellier on the minus so am with you there. Also agree with South, Bath plus can be seen as the best bet as it has the highest probability of success of all 10 games. In future I will include the probability ranking for all the games.

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4 years 4 months ago - 4 years 4 months ago #26 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Kirky M8, "The more information I have the luckier I get"

I like to make my own " focused investment grade" punting decisions (yes no matter how much intel you have there is an element of gambling lol). I do run them back through one or more algorithms. Below is Rugby4cast's Round 2 Challenge Cup predictions. I am looking forward to see how new poster Stig man stacks up. If you want to view Champions Cup they are available on the web page. They also post predicted scores! I also had a terriffic run in the Challenge Cup last week and have kept plenty of powder for a repeat! Cheers 3P


European Rugby Challenge Cup Round 2 - Rugby4cast Algorithm

Dragons 15+ v RCE 69.5%

Edinburgh 14+ v BOR 87.4%

Toulon by 5+ v SCA 68.4%

Bristol by 1+ v BRI 52.5%

Pau by 37+ v Calvisano 97.3%

Stade Francais by 2+ v ZEB 57.2%

Wasps by 13+ v AGE 85.6%

Cardiff by 11+ v LEI 82.6%

Castres by 1+ v WOR 48.9%

London Irish by 12+ v BAY 84.5 %
Last edit: 4 years 4 months ago by threepeat. Reason: Upgrade
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4 years 4 months ago #27 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
The Handicap, Thursday night, live from 21:00 Brent Graham is joined by Brendon Wessels "The Conductor" to go through the European Champions Cup and Challenge Cup matches




If you wish to comment on the show whilst it is live please use this link to our Youtube channel

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 4 months ago #28 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Small interest on 2 Challenge games, both on William Hill

Bristol +4 @ 1.91 - despite a turnover, I expect Bristol to be close to a win

Dragons -18 @ 1.91 - they ve been very good agains Castres, small turnover, cold but dry forecast, was expecting a 25 cap so giving it a go
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4 years 4 months ago #29 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

bradie82 wrote:

Bristol +4 @ 1.91 - despite a turnover, I expect Bristol to be close to a win

Dragons -18 @ 1.91 - they ve been very good agains Castres, small turnover, cold but dry forecast, was expecting a 25 cap so giving it a go

I'm on both of those with Sunbet Bradie:
Dragons -21.5 and Bristol +1.5.
But I'm also on Pau -25.5.

My expectation is Bristol to win by 2 scores - on Superbru. I may put more tomorrow, depending..

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4 years 4 months ago #30 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
I've run the numbers for all the Friday games through the model.

Euro Challenge

Eni v Dra 20.5
Bet Minus (1st of 10 i.e. best bet for the round)

Pau 26.5 v Cal
Bet Plus (2nd)

Brv 1.5 v Bri
Bet plus (9th)

Edi 7.5 v Bor
Bet Minus (4th)

Tln 9.5 v Sca
Bet Plus (10th)

Euro Champs

Uls v Cle 1.5
Bet minus (6th)

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4 years 4 months ago #31 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Kirky,
I would be a bit careful as the Brive team is not that weak as they will use that game to prepare the Stade Francais game

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4 years 4 months ago - 4 years 4 months ago #32 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Thanks for the caution Bradie, I do appreciate it.

My view is that Bristol is improving every week, and whichever way I look at it, I think they have Brive's number. I think a 10+ win.
But I'm in, and let's see the score tomorrow night :)

Next weekend Brive -11.5 against Stade Francais would be a good bet for me. Just a thought :)

Good pickings to all for the weekend.
Cheers :beer
Last edit: 4 years 4 months ago by Kirky.

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4 years 4 months ago #33 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
On top of Brive bringing a decent squad, 8 changes for Bristol and they play London Irish the following week end which they might target
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4 years 4 months ago #34 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Oracle Rugby a late inclusion on tonights show at 21h00 and he has worked closely with The Betting Stig and will share some of the logic in the system

Click Here to watch at 21h00

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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4 years 4 months ago #35 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
CLICK HERE to listen to the show as a podcast

Also if you have not signed up for our free weekly betting mailer CLICK HERE as it will be sent out Friday morning

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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4 years 4 months ago #36 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Following The Handicap show I've decided to remove the first 2 Challenge games from the model as these predictions are heavily skewed by the fact that Enisei and Calvisano each only had 1 performance from which to try and gauge relative team strenght and form and statistically a sample of 1 is unreliable with a large risk of deviation.

Will let them have a few games before considering to add them back in.

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4 years 4 months ago #37 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
WHO THE ***k IS ALICE? I MEAN CALVISANO?


Full name Kawasaki Robot Rugby Calvisano
Union Italian Rugby Federation
Founded 1970; 49 years ago
Location Calvisano, Italy
Ground(s) Stadio San Michele (Capacity: 5,000)
President Angelo Zanetti
Coach(es) Massimo Brunello
Captain(s) Alberto Chiesa
League(s) Italy Top12 / European Challenge Cup

This week in Round 2 of the European Challenge Cup Calvisano is up against current #3 in France Top14 Pau.
Pau not putting up anywhere near there full strength Team. Calvisano still do not have a prayer, it is lambs to the slaughter, shark v minnow, a no contest.

Kiwi Simon Manning, Director of Rugby (former Head Coach) together with assistant coach former AB legend Conrad Smith are just part of the Kiwi Team on the staff that have got Pau to #3 on the Top 14 Table.

Rugby4Cast (Est 2017) algorithm has Pau to win by 37+, which is -37 line in betting language.

Newcomer Team BettingStig/Oracle algorithm has Calvisano +26 as their second best pick of the weekend. Guys please check your algorithm, maybe you have insufficient data on an orphan like Calvisano. Nobody in good conscience good recommend this bet. :woohoo: Cheers 3P
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4 years 4 months ago #38 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

bradie82 wrote: Kirky,
I would be a bit careful as the Brive team is not that weak as they will use that game to prepare the Stade Francais game


Hi Kirky, I am also adding caution to bets on this game. Bradie is the #1 picker of games involving anyTop 14 teams and his caution should be carefully considered. Also French teams are notoriously better at home and especially when they sense blood in the water or get ahead on points. However my greatest concern is the walking wounded at Bristol as follows: Unavailable: Shaun Malton (neck), Tom Lindsay (hamstring), John Afoa (calf), Jake Heenan (ankle), Nathan Hughes (finger), Blake Boyland (ankle), Andy Uren (head), Alapati Leiua (knee), Jack Bates (hamstring), Luke Daniels (shoulder), Charles Piutau (ankle).

Charles Piutau is the 900,000 man at Bristol (outside the salary cap as a marquee player) their Talisman and makes a huge difference to every game (would have played for AB's in RWC if we had SA eligibility rules). Nathan Hughes and John Afoa are also key players. I am aware that "The Conductor" made this his Challenge Cup pick of the round on the Handicap show, but he also claimed Bristol were at full strength :oops: Maybe he will comment after seeing the injured player list.

I am otherwise with you that Pat Lam is doing an amazing job with the talent he has, Bristol are safe in the Premiership and will qualify out of this Challenge Cup Pool. Cheers 3P PS Not posting my Challenge Cup best pick until odds posted by bookies on London Irish game.

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4 years 4 months ago #39 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

threepeat wrote: Rugby4Cast (Est 2017) algorithm has Pau to win by 37+, which is -37 line in betting language.

Newcomer Team BettingStig/Oracle algorithm has Calvisano +26 as their second best pick of the weekend. Guys please check your algorithm, maybe you have insufficient data on an orphan like Calvisano. Nobody in good conscience good recommend this bet. :woohoo: Cheers 3P


Thanks 3P! Agree and have removed the game from the model for this weekend (as well as the Enisei game).

But perhaps I can clarify why such a bold prediction was made by the algorithm and you will have some more insight into how my numbers are put together.

In all their games this season (i.e. only 1 game last weekend) Calvisano has beaten the bookie gametime cap by an average of 17.5 (the cap for that game was 39.5 and they only lost by 22). This makes them a consistent over achiever vs their caps and the team can be backed with more confidence if the team news adjustment factor is not significant. Now in this case unfortunately team strenght has not yet been quantified in the model as information for these players are lacking, so team strenght adjustment is 0. Note in last weekend's game the rugbyvision algorithm had Cardiff by 31 and so they were out by 9 although they did get the direction correct (plus game as 31<39.5). Similarly Rugby4cast had -37 and TheSportron had -42.

Pau on the other hand has a form adjustment number of 2.2 meaning they on average are a team that beat their cap by 2.2. Note in their last 2 home games they've lost their cap against Racing by 34.5 and beat their cap against Castres by 7.5. Furthermore, they have announced a weaker side than usual so there is a negative team strenght factor for this game.

Problems with this prediction 1. Cal has only played 1 game, too low a sample to make significant acertations from 2. Cal has not yet played an away game 3. Cal team strengh has not yet been quantified 4. The cap has already significantly been adjusted following week 1's performance (now 26.5 in an away game vs last week's for a home game 39.5).

Hence me recalling that prediction. The Enisei game has similar issues and I have removed both games from the model given that the expected deviation and therefore risk of a negative outcome is too high.

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4 years 4 months ago - 4 years 4 months ago #40 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

threepeat wrote:
Rugby4Cast (Est 2017) algorithm has Pau to win by 37+, which is -37 line in betting language.

We'll know tonight :)

Last edit: 4 years 4 months ago by Kirky. Reason: Missed Stig's reply.

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4 years 4 months ago #41 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Actually cheched the team news again and although still dont have a feel for Enisei team strenght, they were beaten soundly last week (by 43) by a weaker Worcester team than the Dragons have put out for tonight. Sticking to my guns on this one Dragons minus.

Calvisano away still too much of an unknown.

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4 years 4 months ago #42 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Couch Critic's Champions Cup preview and plays

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/champ...y-23rd-november.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 4 months ago - 4 years 4 months ago #43 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Have taken Montpellier -7 off the back of team lineups

Cruden missing for MHR, but odd Glos lineup with weak halves and a couple of debutants.
(Only 4 players retained from last weeks Toulouse game)
Last edit: 4 years 4 months ago by Brad Breath.

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4 years 4 months ago #44 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Montpellier x Munster @ 1.92 on William Hill - guess the Montpellier line will stay that high for long

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4 years 4 months ago #45 by ThoughtsOnSports
Replied by ThoughtsOnSports on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Brive outright.

Edinburgh -6.5

Ulster on the board.

Saracens -23.5

Montpellier -7.5.

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports

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4 years 4 months ago #46 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
*Challenge Cup*

Brv 1.5 v Bri
Bet plus (7th)

Edi 7.5 v Bor
Bet Minus (4th)

Tln 9.5 v Sca
Bet Plus (5th)

Cas 8.5 v Wor
Bet Plus (1st i.e. best bet)

Zeb v Std 4.5
Bet Minus (6th)

Was 28.5 v Age
Bet Plus (2nd)

Lon 12.5 v Bay
Bet Minus (8th)

Car 13.5 v Lec
Bet Plus (5th)

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4 years 4 months ago #47 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Small interests on

Pau over 5.5 tries @ 1.73 on Skybet
Pau over 39.5 @ 1.82 on 888
Pau -27.5 @ 1.80 on WH

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4 years 4 months ago #48 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Euro Championship

Uls v Cle 1.5
Bet minus (9th)

Ben v Nor 3.5
Bet minus (8th)

Sar 27.5 v Osp
Bet plus (3rd)

Tls 20.5 v Con
Bet plus (7th)

Lyo v Lei 5.5
Bet minus (6th)

Exe 11.5 v Gla
Bet plus (2nd)

Mun 5.5 v Rac
Bet minus (5th)

Har 3.5 v Bat
Bet plus (1st i.e. best bet)

Sal 11.5 v LaR
Bet minus (10th)

Mon 12.5 v Glo
Bet plus (4th)

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4 years 4 months ago #49 by alike
Replied by alike on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
This is a cry for help. I want to get on some sort of penalties bet for the Brive game vs Bristol Game (i.e. over penalties in the game, time of first penalty or a particular team's first scoring play to be a penalty). However, my beloved bookmaker, Bet365, has finally made the smart decision to not take my bets. If anyone knows a South African or European site that offers these markets, please let me know. Thanks

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4 years 4 months ago #50 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Toulon vs Scarlets under 37.5 @ 1.70

Its been raining heavily all day long and more to come tonight so going under

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