European Rugby 22-24 Nov

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4 years 4 months ago #51 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
3P EUROPEAN CHALLENGE CUP BEST BET ROUND 2

BETTING MAX 10 OF 10 EDINBURGH -8.5
- Home field advantage
-picked a very fresh very strong team
-playing a French Top 14 team away
-7% in Edinburgh
-Passes Rugby4Cast & BettingSting algorithms!
-nobody on GFTGF picking Bordeaux Beagles
-Radradra rumoured to be unhappy in France and moving back to Aussie Rugby League

AGAINST: Radradra is a super star and playing for the opposition.
Bordeaux are currently #2 in the Top 14 which makes them a very good team.
Bordeaux are French, which means you never know how dangerous they really are.
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4 years 4 months ago #52 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

threepeat wrote:
Rugby4Cast (Est 2017) algorithm has Pau to win by 37+, which is -37 line in betting language.

Newcomer Team BettingStig/Oracle algorithm has Calvisano +26 as their second best pick of the weekend. Guys please check your algorithm, maybe you have insufficient data on an orphan like Calvisano. Nobody in good conscience good recommend this bet. :woohoo: Cheers 3P


Post Game : Pau 61 - Calvisano 10

Hi Stig, Your algorithm is obviously growing and improving week to week. I do think you are on the right track.

Thank you for withdrawing your call on Calvisano +26.

However with Oracle (he is probably the most popular character on the GFTG panel) as your spokesperson you have cost quite a few punters some serious dosh. Calvisano +26 even made it as far as the GFTG newsletter!

Wishing you the absolute best, but no flip flops next week. Thanks 3P

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4 years 4 months ago #53 by elvis juice
Replied by elvis juice on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
where did you hear guff about semi not being happy ?

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4 years 4 months ago #54 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

elvis juice wrote: where did you hear guff about semi not being happy ?


Foxsports.com.au
A homesick Semi Radradra is reportedly prepared to sacrifice up to $2 million playing rugby union in order to return to the NRL.
The Daily Telegraph reports the Fijian winger has told close friends he wants to return to NRL with South Sydney.

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4 years 4 months ago #55 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

threepeat wrote:
Early Easy Bet Leinster away -5.5, leaving Lyon to focus on Top 14!! Cheers 3P


Have doubled down with Leinster @ -4.5 to make Leinster the 3P Best Bet of Heineken European Champions Cup Round 2.
Current price at tab nz is back up to -5.5 which I would also take.

Was thinking about adding Leinster 13+, but have lost a bit of confidence after 16 All draw between Edinburgh with Bordeaux.

Irish Times "Leinster bring out the Big Guns": Starting Team: Rob Kearney; Jordan Larmour, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, James Lowe; Johnny Sexton (C), Luke McGrath; Cian Healy, Rónan Kelleher, Tadhg Furlong; Scott Fardy, James Ryan, Rhys Ruddock, Josh van der Flier, Max Deegan.

This team looks like the Ireland RWC Team, whereas I can hardly recognize any Lyon players. However they are #1 Team in the Top 14 with 8 from 9 wins. Cheers 3P
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4 years 4 months ago #56 by BDub
Replied by BDub on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

threepeat wrote:

threepeat wrote:
Rugby4Cast (Est 2017) algorithm has Pau to win by 37+, which is -37 line in betting language.

Newcomer Team BettingStig/Oracle algorithm has Calvisano +26 as their second best pick of the weekend. Guys please check your algorithm, maybe you have insufficient data on an orphan like Calvisano. Nobody in good conscience good recommend this bet. :woohoo: Cheers 3P


Post Game : Pau 61 - Calvisano 10

Hi Stig, Your algorithm is obviously growing and improving week to week. I do think you are on the right track.

Thank you for withdrawing your call on Calvisano +26.

However with Oracle (he is probably the most popular character on the GFTG panel) as your spokesperson you have cost quite a few punters some serious dosh. Calvisano +26 even made it as far as the GFTG newsletter!

Wishing you the absolute best, but no flip flops next week. Thanks 3P


I must admit, it takes some proper bollocks to call out another guy's bet when your MAX BET lost! 10/10

Follow me on Twitter - @BrendonWessels

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4 years 4 months ago #57 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Some kind of special to have a go at a newcomer on the forum after your max bet doesn't even win, let alone cover the handicap. #ProperKnob

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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4 years 4 months ago #58 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Friday's results are in and not shooting the lights out but a solid start.

CHAMPS Won 0 Lost 1 - 0%
CHALLENGE Won 3 Lost 1 - 75%
OVERALL Won 3 Lost 2 - 60% (in the ballpark but would like this closer to 70% over time)

Here's how it went down with a comparison of how my algorithm stacked up against other well known computer models:

CHAMPS

Betting line: Uls v Cle 1.5
At kickoff: Uls v Cle 1.5
Result: Uls by 5
RugbyVision (Uls 6) plus won
Rugby4cast (Uls 5) plus won
SportsTron (Cle 3) minus lost
Stig Pick's 9th bb (Cle -1.5) minus lost

CHALLENGE

Betting line: Eni v Dra 20.5
At kickoff: Eni v Dra 21.5
Result: Dra by 27
RugbyVision (Dra by 20) plus lost
Rugby4cast (Dra by 15) plus lost
SportsTron (Dra by 24) minus won
Stig Pick's 3rd bb (Dra -20.5) minus won

Betting line: Pau 26.5 v Cal
At kickoff: Pau 37.5 v Cal
Result: Pau by 51
RugbyVision (Pau by 37) minus won
Rugby4cast (Pau by 37) minus won
SportsTron (Pau by 26) plus lost
Stig Pick - NO BET

Betting line: Brv 1.5 v Bri
At kickoff: Brv v Bri 2.5
Result: Bri by 36
RugbyVision (Bri 5) plus won
Rugby4cast (Bri 1) plus won
SportsTron (Bri 5) plus won
Stig Pick's 7th bb (Bri +1.5) plus won

Betting line: Edi 7.5 v Bor
At kickoff: Edi 7.5 v Bor
Result: Draw
RugbyVision (Edi 12) minus lost
Rugby4Cast (Edi 14) minus lost
SportsTron (Edi 12) minus lost
Stig Pick's 4th bb (Edi -7.5) minus lost

Betting line: Tln 9.5 v Sca
At kickoff: Tln 9.5 v Sca
Result: Tln by 1
RugbyVision (Tln 2) plus won
Rugby4cast (Tln 5) plus won
SportsTron (Tln 14) minus lost
Stig Pick's 5th bb (Sca +9.5) plus won

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4 years 4 months ago #59 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Full house yesterday on the Challenge so will not go with too many bets today as I am already largely involved on the Glasgow +20.5 (888 cap mistake) and the combo MHR x Munster
However looking at the forecast in London and the Bath squad, i m gonna take some Bath over 1.5 tries @ 1.62 on skybet

Risk of rain in Toulouse and Lyon and will provide more input later on when I have more info
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4 years 4 months ago #60 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Just the Bath + as big main bet for this weekend, then a treble for other interest -

Exeter glas over 41.5
Lyon Leinster over 39.5
Munster racing over 40.5

Just under 6/1
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4 years 4 months ago #61 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

threepeat wrote:
Have doubled down with Leinster @ -4.5 to make Leinster the 3P Best Bet of Heineken European Champions Cup.

Irish Times "Leinster bring out the Big Guns": Starting Team: Rob Kearney; Jordan Larmour, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw, James Lowe; Johnny Sexton (C), Luke McGrath; Cian Healy, Rónan Kelleher, Tadhg Furlong; Scott Fardy, James Ryan, Rhys Ruddock, Josh van der Flier, Max Deegan.

This team looks like the Ireland RWC Team, whereas I can hardly recognize any Lyon players. However they are #1 Team in the Top 14 with 8 from 9 wins. Cheers 3P


I really cleaned up last night with my 3 big bets winning: Dragons -19.5/-21. Pau -25.5 / 1st H -12.5. Bristol +1/-1.5.
Lost on Edinburgh & Clermont, but they were smaller.

Got some decent punts down today. I'm strong on Bath W and +4.5. Also Montpellier -12.5 (best I could get) and I think they'll win by 20.

But I have also doubled down on Leinster at -5.5, which is now my biggest bet for the weekend :)
Hope the weather doesn't affect the game too much...

Really enjoy your tongue-in-cheek humour 3P, but I don't think anyone was going to take Stig's advice against Pau yesterday, and he did withdraw it almost immediately.

But we've gotta be careful on social media, some guys throw stones quickly :P

Good hunting guys :beer

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4 years 4 months ago #62 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Ospreys +28 @ 1.91

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4 years 4 months ago - 4 years 4 months ago #63 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

Brad Breath wrote: Ospreys +28 @ 1.91


Oh dear.

Pulled a bit back on Exeter and have followed the forum on Bath +5
Last edit: 4 years 4 months ago by Brad Breath.

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4 years 4 months ago #64 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
The main bet on Glasgow +20.5 is good so an amazing week end but very disappointed by the Bath performance.

Last bet of the week end : Nadolo anytime @ 2.10

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4 years 4 months ago #65 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

TheBettingStig wrote:
Betting line: Pau 26.5 v Cal
At kickoff: Pau 37.5 v Cal
Result: Pau by 51
RugbyVision (Pau by 37) minus won
Rugby4cast (Pau by 37) minus won
SportsTron (Pau by 26) plus lost
Stig Pick - NO BET

Betting line: Edi 7.5 v Bor
At kickoff: Edi 7.5 v Bor
Result: Draw
RugbyVision (Edi 12) minus lost
Rugby4Cast (Edi 14) minus lost
SportsTron (Edi 12) minus lost
Stig Pick's 4th bb (Edi -7.5) minus lost

threepeat wrote: Rugby4Cast (Est 2017) algorithm has Pau to win by 37+, which is -37 line in betting language.

Newcomer Team BettingStig/Oracle algorithm has Calvisano +26 as their second best pick of the weekend. Guys please check your algorithm, maybe you have insufficient data on an orphan like Calvisano. Nobody in good conscience good recommend this bet. :woohoo: Cheers 3P


The BettingStig wrote: Thanks 3P! Agree and have removed the game from the model for this weekend

I refer to the threads "Proper Twins" Knob & Bollocks, who have been disadvantaged in life, in that they have trouble in posting in the forum in "proper" english, have problems with keeping up with the "thread",cannot understand the meaning of simple phrases such as" beta testing an algorithm" and cannot distinguish between meaningful bets and theoretical research. 3P forgives you.

BettingStig did not make a bet on Calvisano!! Refer above! In fact he is so busy building his model he may not have had an actual bet on any of the games this weekend. Accordingly I am not guilty (set 3P free) of the slanderous remarks of my accusers Knob & Bollocks.

I invite constructive criticism and views the polar opposite of my own. Please try and do it prior to kick off so that I can cover my bet when needed. IMHO constructive criticism does not extend to Knob & Bollicks homophobic remarks. Would have gone with stay away from the Bordeaux 3P or get run over by a Semi. Actually its Bollocks that post inappropriately, at three am in the morning lol

Anyhow my betting reasoning on Edinburgh was posted in the forum prior to the game, Frankly I would make the same bet again, just for less! #2 in the Top 14 deserved more respect. I had been of the opinion in means less in RWC years due to everyone being at RWC. Please note that all four algorithms tracked by Dr Stig also got it wrong. I did post a double down on Leinster v Lyon and got back more than my earlier loss. Other posts included Northampton to win, Connacht + 20.5 and Pau -26.5, giving me 80% of posts and actually better $$$ in real life.

I cannot find any record of Knob or Bollocks posting their Euro Cups bets on the forum. Knob & Bollocks are throwing stones in a glass house. That does make you a couple of hypocrites. 3P Challenges both of you to a duel in Round 3 of the Cups or the Premiership next week, or Pro14 next week. Best of luck. My apologies to anyone that lost on Edinburgh this week (hope you got on Leinster), though you could have been influenced by many sources. Cheers 3P

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4 years 4 months ago #66 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
The most bizarre rugby thread ever. Battled to follow between the gratuitous self back slapping, petty calling out of losing tips and complicated system after system updates.

Please can we get back to some normal rugby betting posts? Not sure I can stick around amongst such drivel.
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4 years 4 months ago #67 by Experienced Novice
Replied by Experienced Novice on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

southpaw wrote: The most bizarre rugby thread ever. Battled to follow between the gratuitous self back slapping, petty calling out of losing tips and complicated system after system updates.

Please can we get back to some normal rugby betting posts? Not sure I can stick around amongst such drivel.


I absolutely agree South. Never one for statistics or formulas when it comes to rugby, just your basic analysis of h2h records, current home and away form of both teams together with the respective importance of the fixture will suffice for a simpleton like myself. Maybe lady luck smiled upon me, but i will take the 50/1 rugby acca that I landed yesterday and leave the posting of tips to the mathematicians.

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4 years 4 months ago - 4 years 4 months ago #68 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
I thank the stars that this train-wreck of a weekend is nearly over.

Just a small interest on Montpellier -12.5 left now.

After large wins on Dragons, Pau, and Bristol, followed by a big win on Leinster yesterday, pretty much everything else went down the drain and I find myself with a profit of 1.05%
Which kinda sucks. But I have had worse :sick:

Roll-on next weekend :woohoo: :dry:
Last edit: 4 years 4 months ago by Kirky. Reason: mistake made

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4 years 4 months ago #69 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov

Kirky wrote: I thank the stars that this train-wreck of a weekend is nearly over.

Just a small interest on Montpellier -12.5 left now.

After large wins on Dragons, Pau, and Bristol, followed by a big win on Leinster yesterday, pretty much everything else went down the drain and I find myself with a profit of 1.05%
Which kinda sucks. But I have had worse :sick:

Roll-on next weekend :woohoo: :dry:


Kirky M8, It is been another fantastic weekend. Leinster was a cracker. I did not go 13+. which I would have done if i had not lost on Edinburgh lol I did post that Harlequins v Bath was in the too hard basket.

Sale Sharks Starting 15: 15. Simon Hammersley, 14. Denny Solomona, 13. Rohan Janse van Rensburg, 12. Rob du Preez, 11. Chris Ashton, 10. AJ MacGinty, 9. Faf de Klerk; 1. Ross Harrsion, 2. Akker van der Merwe, 3. Coenie Oosthuizen, 4. Bryn Evans, 5. Jean-Luc du Preez, 6. Ben Curry, 7. Tom Curry, 8. Jono Ross (Capt)

Strong team, includes 11 internationals. looks like our bet on Leinster.

FAF IS BACK! BETTING MAX SS -10.5 @ $1.72 Line is currently -12,5 @$ 1.92 @ tabnz so one step down in the alt market. The -12.5 looks good but playing safe to end the week. Sitting on a multi needing Montpellier -9.5 Cheers 3P.
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4 years 4 months ago #70 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
EURO CHALLENGE weekend results 7/9 or 78%.

Added to last weekend's 8/10 gives 15/19 overall or 79%.

EURO CHAMPS weekend picks performing poorly though, been a real tough old weekend. Two games to go and will update after.

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4 years 4 months ago #71 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
No back slapping for me, just big face palm thanks to a poor Bath team.

Double - La Rochelle and Gloucester both over 15.5 pts @ 22/10

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4 years 4 months ago #72 by LiveLovePunt
Replied by LiveLovePunt on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Sale -12.5 v La Rochelle

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4 years 4 months ago #73 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
EURO CHAMPIONSHIP result in, finishing the weekend just 3/10 or 30% and over the whole comp 10/20 or 50%.

Combined champs and challenge tournaments:
Weekend 10/19 or 53%
Overall 25/39 = 64%

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4 years 4 months ago - 4 years 4 months ago #74 by elvis juice
Replied by elvis juice on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
.
Last edit: 4 years 4 months ago by elvis juice.

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4 years 4 months ago #75 by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Weekend result for me: Loss of 5.5%

My final verdict: No matter what I try, I cannot beat the bookies.

To those of you who claim that you do: I salute your genius :S

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4 years 3 months ago #76 by coil
Replied by coil on topic European Rugby 22-24 Nov
Honda lads ,

Focused mainly on the horses today but my fancies.

Leicester on the best plus , last chance for these clowns , Murphy is a lousy coach but going for them today.

Best plus Worcester my best bet of the day, think they';ll win on the board.

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