Rugby betting thread 03-05 Jan

Thread for this weekends NH rugby action and betting, hopefully some value about. Will be keeping an eye out on team news as well.

Post all your thoughts and bets below.

The first games that catch my attention are Benetton vs Glasgow and Sale vs Quinn’s.

Will be taking Glasgow at 1/1. They haven’t been as good this year as last year, but still rate they have enough quality to put Benetton away and they would have been 6/10 last year for this game. They won’t be taking this game lightly.

Also taking Sale at -6.5. Don’t rate that Quinns side and think Sale will see this as an opportunity to get 5 points.

Weather for both games looks ok.

In agreement with BDub re Sale -6, which I got on yesterday. Quins away form is poor and Sale rarely lose at home.
Line is on its way out I see so get on ASAP if you fancy them.

Some excellent games in the Pro14 this week, first fancy is Ulster to beat Munster on Friday night.
Munster have a few injuries and will also be resting a number of their Irish squad.
Ulster without Coetzee and Ludik but have plenty of strength in depth.
Kingspan on a Friday night very hard place to go and win.
Got on Ulster win @ 1.8 with BF when books opened Monday

Pro 14 (performance 33/54 = 61%)

Cardiff v Scarlets 0.5
S-line: -5
Bet Scarlets win

Ulster 2.5 v Munster
S-line: 4
Bet minus

Benneton 0.5 v Glasgow
S-line: -3
Bet Glasgow win

Dragons 4.5 v Ospreys
S-line: 8
Bet minus

Zebre v Cheetahs 7.5
S-line: -10
Bet minus

Leinster 25.5 v Connacht
S-line: 23
Bet plus

Edinburgh 23.5 v Kings
S-line: 28
Bet minus

Premiership (performance 24/42 = 57%)

Sale 8.5 v Harlequins
S-line: 11
Bet minus

Leicester 4.5 v Bristol
S-line: 9
Bet minus

Gloucester 7.5 v Bath
S-line: 1
Bet plus

Saracens 21.5 v Worcester
S-line: 24
Bet minus

London Irish v Exeter 10.5
S-line: -16
Bet minus

Wasps v Northampton 0.5
S-line: -6
Bet Northampton win

Top 14 (performance 50/84 = 60%)

Agen v Lyon 2.5
S-line: -7
Bet minus

Racing 8.5 v Clermont
S-line: 9
Bet minus

Bordeaux 22.5 v Bayonne
S-line: 26
Bet minus

Montpellier 17.5 v Brive
S-line: 14
Bet plus

Pau 3.5 v La Rochelle
S-line: -2
Bet plus

Toulon 15.5 v Castres
S-line: 23
Bet minus

Stade Francais v Toulouse 1.5
S-line: -9
Bet minus

Happy happy New Year everyone - may it be prosperous for all of us.

I posted this on the 'Algorithms - do they work thread' earlier, so copy & paste to here. My predictions are the same as Stig's except for the Leinster/Connacht game: Stig says plus and I think minus. Nevertheless, there's some good value around imho.

Premiership:
Sarries to thrash Worcester on a revenge mission for last weekend’s loss, and easily beat the -19.5 (90%)
Exeter to continue their ruthless run on the crown by trashing London Irish and beating the -12.5 (95%)

Pro 14:
Ulster to beat the -2.5 against Munster (90%)
Dragons to slaughter Ospreys by more than 20, and beat the -5.5 (99%)
Leinster to beat the -24.5 against Connacht (80%)

There’s a few others hooting at me, but not at the certainty levels of above, like:
Edinburgh to beat the -24.5 against Kings, and;
Cheetahs to beat the -5.5 against Zebre.

I'm feeling a good year looming for us, starting this weekend...

Munster team slightly stronger than I thought......still confident of Ulster getting the result though

Am going to Blues v Scarlets and have just backed Blues +1.5 @ 1.91
Big Nick Williams back at 8 which is huge for them.
Will be looking at overs on points too when available.

Kirky wrote: Happy happy New Year everyone - may it be prosperous for all of us.

I posted this on the 'Algorithms - do they work thread' earlier, so copy & paste to here. My predictions are the same as Stig's except for the Leinster/Connacht game: Stig says plus and I think minus. Nevertheless, there's some good value around imho.
...

I tend to agree with you on that Leinster bet Kirky. Especially given what happened in Galway already a few weeks back (11-42). Just watch the team sheets, both teams could be resting players here.

As I keep on saying, the algorithm is only a guide, performing around 60% means one would do well if you can pick out a couple where you disagree strongly and go the opposite way every week.

Brad Breath wrote: Munster team slightly stronger than I thought......still confident of Ulster getting the result though

Am going to Blues v Scarlets and have just backed Blues +1.5 @ 1.91
Big Nick Williams back at 8 which is huge for them.
Will be looking at overs on points too when available.

Agree with you on that one - forecast is good, I like both squads and cut is a bit low IMO

Over 40.5 @1.83

For a pure gamble with beer-money, both Saracens and Exeter offer some value on Sunbet:

Saracens to beat Worcester by 31-40 @ 4.10
Exeter to beat London Irish by 21-30 @ 5.00,
and Exeter also by 31-40 @ 12.50

I've also taken a few (small) accas combining handicaps with them. If they come in they really do multiply quickly, and I've got Sarries by 35 and Exeter by 30 on Superbru. I also reckon Leinster by 30+ over Connacht, but so far no similar offers from Sunbet.

Main bet today - Glasgow over 19.5pts @ 17/20.

Smaller bet, total pt Acca @ 10/1 -

Dragons ospreys over 41.5
Zebre cheetahs over 41.5
Leinster Connacht over 52.5
Edinburgh kings over 50.5

Just 2 changes from me following team news:

Benneton -4.5 (Glasgow selected a second string team)
Kings +25.5 (Edinburgh stars sitting on the bench)

southpaw wrote: Main bet today - Glasgow over 19.5pts @ 17/20.

Smaller bet, total pt Acca @ 10/1 -

Dragons ospreys over 41.5
Zebre cheetahs over 41.5
Leinster Connacht over 52.5
Edinburgh kings over 50.5

Also gone over 42.5 @ 9/10 Gloucester bath

Think the Kings may struggle a bit 1st game up after a long spell.
Few changes for the Edinburgh team doesn't weaken them significantly for me, with plenty of quality on the bench.
Edinburgh -24

Have been dipping my toe into spread betting the last few weeks.
Small buy of Edinburgh shirts at 66

southpaw wrote:

southpaw wrote: Main bet today - Glasgow over 19.5pts @ 17/20.

Smaller bet, total pt Acca @ 10/1 -

Dragons ospreys over 41.5
Zebre cheetahs over 41.5
Leinster Connacht over 52.5
Edinburgh kings over 50.5

Also gone over 42.5 @ 9/10 Gloucester bath

Been a great day and acca goes to the last leg, have covered 2 unit stake on under 51.5, looking for a free flowing game from the off!

Great stuff South, well played

After a very large degree of fortune (Kings red card), Edinburgh shirts closed at 120.
Not sure there is a better rush than watching the high numbers stroll in late on

Superb stuff BB

Pushing my luck a bit for fancy Exeter to win comfortably today and Saints to edge Wasps.

Exeter -11.5
Saints win

Double @ 2/1

Superb South

LI vs Chiefs
Over 43.5 @ 1.71
Over 28.5 Chiefs @ 1.83
Over 3.5 tries Chiefs @ 1.72

bradie82 wrote: Superb South

LI vs Chiefs
Over 43.5 @ 1.71
Over 28.5 Chiefs @ 1.83
Over 3.5 tries Chiefs @ 1.72

Nailed it

southpaw wrote: Superb stuff BB

Pushing my luck a bit for fancy Exeter to win comfortably today and Saints to edge Wasps.

Exeter -11.5
Saints win

Double @ 2/1

Covered 5 unit stake wasps 11/10 dnb

And 0.5 unit draw 20/1, so effectively now on evens saints win

Kirky wrote: Happy happy New Year everyone - may it be prosperous for all of us.

I posted this on the 'Algorithms - do they work thread' earlier, so copy & paste to here. My predictions are the same as Stig's except for the Leinster/Connacht game: Stig says plus and I think minus. Nevertheless, there's some good value around imho.

Premiership:
Sarries to thrash Worcester on a revenge mission for last weekend’s loss, and easily beat the -19.5 (90%)
Exeter to continue their ruthless run on the crown by trashing London Irish and beating the -12.5 (95%)

Pro 14:
Ulster to beat the -2.5 against Munster (90%)
Dragons to slaughter Ospreys by more than 20, and beat the -5.5 (99%)
Leinster to beat the -24.5 against Connacht (80%)

There’s a few others hooting at me, but not at the certainty levels of above, like:
Edinburgh to beat the -24.5 against Kings, and;
Cheetahs to beat the -5.5 against Zebre.

I'm feeling a good year looming for us, starting this weekend...

Excellent work!!

Giving myself a facepalm for those two last minute switches, turning both winning bets into losing ones. Ospreys game did look good though until that last try against the run of play.

Algorithm Performance

Pro 14
Weekend 3/7 = 43%
Season 36/61 = 59%

Premiership
Weekend 5/6 = 83%
Season 29/48 = 60%

Top 14
Weekend 3/7 = 43%
Season 53/91 = 58%

Totals
Weekend 11/20 = 55%
Combined Seasons (Pro14, Prem, Top14) 118/200 = 59%
Overall 163/279 = 58%

Other Algorithms

StatsChat
Weekend 1/13 = 8%
Overall 49/109 = 45%

Rugbyvision
Weekend 9/20 = 45%
Overall 135/279 = 48%

Rugby4cast
Weekend 9/20 = 45%
Overall 137/279 = 49%