Champions Cup & Challenge Cup rugby, 10th - 12th Jan

A number of great match ups this weekend, but somewhat sadly a few dead rubbers too.

Hence team lineups will be key, as those unable to make the knockout stages will almost certainly rest players.

Current Champions Cup caps on BF:

Bath -6 vs Quins
La Rochelle -9 vs Sale Sharks
Clermont - 8 vs Ulster
Connacht +7 vs Toulouse
Glasgow +6 vs Exeter
Gloucester -12 vs Montpellier
Leinster -31 vs Lyon
Northampton -17 vs Benetton
Racing 92 -11 vs Munster
No prices yet for Ospreys v Sarries, I presume because Sarries may choose to play some of their first team

My early bets:
Northampton -15
Cap since moved a couple of points. Saints still have a decent shot at progressing but will realistically need a try bonus point.
Benetton cant progress so even if they bring a strong team I cant see them being that motivated.

Toulouse -6
Big injury crisis at Connacht, can see them being overpowered by the French team's big pack.

Lastly an acca with all the following teams to win @ 2.75:
Clermont
Toulouse
Racing 92
Northampton

Early fancy for me is the Bath -5.5 @1.80 through Bet365. South African bookies have Bath -6.5 @0.95 (i.e. Bet.co.za). Both teams have no hope of making the quarter-finals and will be playing 2nd string sides. Bath has way more depth than Harlequins. Moreover, The Rec is a hard place to travel to. Taking this now as I have a feeling the cap may shift a bit when the teams are announced.

Bookies terrified of the Saracens/Ospreys match - doesn't matter where they put the cap, they'll lose

My (gimme) acca for Champions Cup:
Ulster +8.5 / Toulouse -4.5 / Exeter -2.5 @ 6.19 with Sunbet.
Climbs to 7.62 if you include the Racing win, but that's on Sunday so no need to commit now.

Ulster can go beat Clermont, and if you change the + for a win, it rises to 11.74 Definitely good for a (beer money) punt imo.

Challenge Cup should be up today, bound to be some good value there too

Don't waste hard earned cash on dead rubbers guys.

La Rochelle 14.5 v Sale
S-line: LaR by 10
No bet. Dead rubber.

Bath v Harlequins 1.5
S-line: Bath by 4
No bet. Dead rubber

Connacht's "crisis" perhaps a bit over-stated:

www.connachtrugby.ie/connacht-boosted-by...clash-with-toulouse/

It's so hard to maintain any level of interest in this northern hemisphere stuff.
But I suppose it's tuff for them too, sloshing around in mud over their ankles week after week, bashing into each other and trying to remember which competition they're actually playing in on Saturday

Anyway chin-up chaps - only 20 more sleeps.

Oh yeah - Sarries to beat Ospreys by 40+ points (bookies gonna go -28.5).

Small interests for the Bath vs Quins game – both team are out so hopefully could see an open game with team going for tries mainly

Each team over 1.5 tries @ 1.75
Over 1.5 tries in each half @ 1.75
Each team to score a try in each half @ 3

Still waiting on the Challenge Cup odds as I have targeted a game but nothing out yet

Kirky wrote: It's so hard to maintain any level of interest in this northern hemisphere stuff.
But I suppose it's tuff for them too, sloshing around in mud over their ankles week after week, bashing into each other and trying to remember which competition they're actually playing in on Saturday

Anyway chin-up chaps - only 20 more sleeps.

Oh yeah - Sarries to beat Ospreys by 40+ points (bookies gonna go -28.5).

Saracens are -13

Worcester -38.5 @1.87

Worcester should destroy this Russian team that did not play for a month and Warriors need a huge win as average could be important to qualify.
They won by 43 back in November, good forecast ahead and last year the Russian got smahed back to back by Bristol with more than 100 points scored in the last game

Euro Champs (performance 20/40 = 50%)

Clermont 9.5 v Ulster
S-line: 2
Bet plus

Glasgow v Exeter 3.5
S-line: 4
Bet plus

Connacht v Toulouse 6.5
S-line: -6
Bet plus

Gloucester 11.5 v Montpellier
S-line: 17
Bet minus

Ospreys v Saracens 13.5
S-line: -24
Bet minus

Leinster 38.5 v Lyon
S-line: 31
Bet plus

Northampton 17.5 v Benneton
S-line: 12
Bet plus

Racing 8.5 v Munster
S-line: 5
Bet plus

Euro Challenge (performance 25/39 = 64%)

Stade Francais 10.5 v Zebre
S-line: 12
No bet. Dead rubber.

Castres 10.5 v Dragons
S-line: 1
Bet plus

Agen v Wasps 5.5
S-line: -9
No bet. Dead rubber

Bayonne 8.5 v London Irish
S-line: 1
No bet. Dead rubber

Calvisano v Pau 11.5
S-line: -14
Bet minus

Bordeaux 11.5 v Edinburgh
S-line: 7
Bet plus

Worcester 40.5 v Enisei
S-line: 36
Bet plus

Bristol 27.5 v Brive
S-line: 23
Bet plus

Scarlets 3.5 v Toulon
S-line: -2
Bet plus

Leicester 9.5 v Cardiff
S-line: 6
Bet plus

Worried about how teams approach this weekend, not getting too involved at this stage but for now a 4/1 all to win acca -

Claremont
Saracens
Toulouse
Exeter
Gloucester
Northampton
Leinster
Racing

Northerner wrote:

Kirky wrote:
Oh yeah - Sarries to beat Ospreys by 40+ points (bookies gonna go -28.5).

Saracens are -13

Was in the pub when teams were announced, so only seen them this morning. Think I recognise about 2 or 3 names on Sarries list. Perhaps they've put in their B-reserves, which should still be enuff to beat Ospreys by 14 despite Alun Wyn Jones being back.

So I'll change my Suprbru to 20 and stay with -13.5

Montpellier over 15.5 @ 9/10

Every bet landed last week but yesterday was the opposite, single punt sunk without a trace and acca ended by Exeter draw.

Think Leinster at some point go soft today -

Lyon over 10.5 pts @ 10/11

Saints vs Treviso

A try scored in every 20 min period @ 1.57

southpaw wrote: Every bet landed last week but yesterday was the opposite, single punt sunk without a trace and acca ended by Exeter draw.

Think Leinster at some point go soft today -

Lyon over 10.5 pts @ 10/11

Good call right there South, well done.

Real horror show for me and glad it's over.

Champs
Weekend 4/8 = 50%
Comp 24/48 = 50%

Challenge
Weekend 2/7 = 29%
Comp 27/45 = 59%

Overall 169/294 = 57%