Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan

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6 days 11 hours ago - 5 days 13 hours ago #1 by bradie82
Probably going against most of the punters but I m gonna give a go at Lyon +6.5 @ 2.4 on BetFair Exchange

I think Lyon will use this game to prepare their Top 14 against Toulon and therefore bring a strong squad
Might be wrong but worth a shot
Last edit: 5 days 13 hours ago by bradie82.

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  • son_of_a_punt
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6 days 11 hours ago - 6 days 11 hours ago #2 by son_of_a_punt
Replied by son_of_a_punt on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Champions Cup caps:

Benetton v Leinster -17.5

Lyon v Northampton Saints -5.5

Harlequins v Clermont -12.5

Ulster -22.5 v Bath

Exeter Chiefs -28.5 v La Rochelle

Sale Sharks v Glasgow Warriors -4.5

Munster -25.5 v Ospreys

Saracens -14.5 v Racing 92

Montpellier -11.5 v Connacht

Stade Toulousain -14.5 v Gloucester

Picks:

Think there is some early value in the first two games.

Benetton v Leinster: Leinster have made it clear that they want the top seed in order to secure a home quarter-final and semi-final. To do that, they need to beat Benetton. Leo Cullen stated "We'll be going full at it, that may require a couple of changes within the group, just to freshen things up. It’s full steam ahead and try and make sure we finish the job now". A strong Leinster team is enough to clear an 18.5 cap, but there is also the chance that Benetton don't play a strong side against Leinster seeing as though they are already out the competition. In addition, the Italy national team are set to start their training camp on the 19th of Jan, so if their internationals are unavailable for selection, there could be a blood bath at the Stadio Comunale di Monigo.
Pick: Leinster -18.5 (Bet.co.za)

Lyon v Northampton Saints: Lyon are out of the competition having only won 1 of their 5 games. On the other hand, the Saints need a win to have hopes of making it into the knockout stages. The Saints rested a couple players in their bonus point win over Benetton, and thus they will be sending a full strength team to Lyon. Chris Boyd was not happy with his teams performance last week, and I am sure he will be looking to right the wrongs against what could be a slightly weaker Lyon team, as they could look to rest players for their Top 14 clash against Toulon next week.
Pick: Northampton Saints -5.5 (Bet.co.za)
Last edit: 6 days 11 hours ago by son_of_a_punt.

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  • TheBettingStig
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6 days 7 hours ago #3 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Euro Champs (performance 24/48 = 50%)

Lyon v Northampton 5.5
S-line: 1
Bet plus

Benneton v Leinster 17.5
S-line: -23
Bet minus

Ulster 22.5 v Bath
S-line: 28
Bet minus

Harlequins v Clermont 11.5
S-line: -21
Bet minus

Exeter 28.5 v La Rochelle
S-line: 16
Bet plus

Sale v Glasgow 4.5
S-line: -7
Bet minus

Saracens 14.5 v Racing
S-line: 10
Bet plus

Munster 25.5 v Ospreys
S-line: 23
Bet plus

Montpellier 11.5 v Connacht
S-line: 4
No bet. Dead rubber.

Toulouse 15.5 v Gloucester
S-line: 8
Bet plus

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5 days 14 hours ago #4 by son_of_a_punt
Replied by son_of_a_punt on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Ulster vs Bath:
Ulster needing a win to secure a spot in the knockout stages, whilst Bath are out the competition. One would think Stuart Hooper would send an experimental team to Northern Ireland and save his big guns for the Premiership - and I think that is what the bookies set their 23.5 point handicap at. However, Stuart Hoopers latest press conference makes it seem as though Bath are going to field a strong team:

“They (Ulster) need to win to go through. We want to be tested against the best and Ulster Rugby are in a position where they really want to do well and get the points and progress through the competition, so we will be doing everything that we can to stop that from happening.
It is a huge game and we are treating it in that regard. We are going there with a team that we believe can win the game. When we finish that game, we will start preparing for Leicester Tigers.”

On this basis it is worth having a stab at the plus. If Bath do send out a strong team, then the cap should be covered.

Pick: Bath +23.5 (Keith Betxchange)

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4 days 18 hours ago #5 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
The Handicap is back tonight lads and we talk Super Rugby and some Champions Cup


Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
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4 days 14 hours ago #6 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
my double for weekend -

Saints -4.5
onto
Racing +14.5

@ 23/10

Northampton need that win to keep themselves in the mix, while Racing should be taking this seriously if want a home 1/4 final spot.

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4 days 7 hours ago #7 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Samll interest on Dragons -40.5 @1.91

They need ahuge win to finish first, squad is more than decent and the Russian team could suffer once again after last week game

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4 days 2 hours ago #8 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Really enjoyed THE HANDICAP tonight

Here is a podcast link for those that prefer not to see our mugs

anchor.fm/brent-graham/episodes/The-Hand...s-Cup-Preview-ea7mnb

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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3 days 23 hours ago #9 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Have just taken a bit more Racing +14.5

Looks as if Sarries will be relegated from the Prem and that's obviously got to be concerning for all their players.

Will almost certainly affect their prep and mental state.
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3 days 17 hours ago #10 by mackem
Couch Critic's Champions Cup preview and plays

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/champ...ay-18th-january.html

twitter: @goodforthegame
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3 days 14 hours ago #11 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan

Brad Breath wrote: Have just taken a bit more Racing +14.5

Looks as if Sarries will be relegated from the Prem and that's obviously got to be concerning for all their players.

Will almost certainly affect their prep and mental state.


agree, have taken some more of my Saints -4.5 /Racing +14.5 double @ 23/10, and some Racing +14.5 @ 5/6

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3 days 12 hours ago #12 by son_of_a_punt
Replied by son_of_a_punt on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Overnight news suggest that Saracens might face relegation if they cannot prove that the current squad is within the required £7m salary cap. If this is true, then I would think that Saracens sees the Champions Cup as their last glimmer of hope for the season and thus will send out a pretty strong team against Racing. It should be a great spectacle that could go either way, so although Racing on the board is value, my only play for this game will be a small interest in Racing +14.5. I mean after all, they are rugby players not soccer players, so I am sure the Sarries lads know how to leave the drama off the field ;)

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3 days 11 hours ago #13 by Kirky

son_of_a_punt wrote:
Overnight news suggest that Saracens might face relegation if they cannot prove that the current squad is within the required £7m salary cap. If this is true, then I would think that Saracens sees the Champions Cup as their last glimmer of hope for the season and thus will send out a pretty strong team against Racing. It should be a great spectacle that could go either way, so although Racing on the board is value, my only play for this game will be a small interest in Racing +14.5. I mean after all, they are rugby players not soccer players, so I am sure the Sarries lads know how to leave the drama off the field ;)

I read this situation a bit differently to you guys, consider this:

Getting to the semis or even winning the Champions Cup does nothing to avoid their relegation from the Premiership. The only thing that can keep them in the Premiership is not coming last. Relegation is a financial disaster which will cripple them. Winning the Champions Cup is no consolation.

Why give your all against an extremely good team who are visiting you, determined to win, and risk anything that could detract from next week's game against Harlequins - which must be won with a bonus point ?

It's only bonus points in the Premiership that can keep them in it for next year.

Odds here are now +13.5 for Racing, and I think Racing will be in the cap, and they might actually win it.
Good luck :beer

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3 days 10 hours ago #14 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan

Kirky wrote:

son_of_a_punt wrote:
Overnight news suggest that Saracens might face relegation if they cannot prove that the current squad is within the required £7m salary cap. If this is true, then I would think that Saracens sees the Champions Cup as their last glimmer of hope for the season and thus will send out a pretty strong team against Racing. It should be a great spectacle that could go either way, so although Racing on the board is value, my only play for this game will be a small interest in Racing +14.5. I mean after all, they are rugby players not soccer players, so I am sure the Sarries lads know how to leave the drama off the field ;)

I read this situation a bit differently to you guys, consider this:

Getting to the semis or even winning the Champions Cup does nothing to avoid their relegation from the Premiership. The only thing that can keep them in the Premiership is not coming last. Relegation is a financial disaster which will cripple them. Winning the Champions Cup is no consolation.

Why give your all against an extremely good team who are visiting you, determined to win, and risk anything that could detract from next week's game against Harlequins - which must be won with a bonus point ?

It's only bonus points in the Premiership that can keep them in it for next year.

Odds here are now +13.5 for Racing, and I think Racing will be in the cap, and they might actually win it.
Good luck :beer


Kirky did you see the overnight news suggesting Sarries could be relegated regardless?

Meanwhile they've named a full strength team for tomorrow :unsure:
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3 days 10 hours ago #15 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
After seeing teams I've taken some of the following:
Clermont -12 (weak Quins team)
Joining Son of a Punt on Bath +25

And somewhat embarrassingly earlier this week I took some Ospreys +27
They are complete garbage, but tend to be a different team when both Tipuric and AW Jones are in the pack.
Plus Scott Williams is back in the centres.

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3 days 9 hours ago #16 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Worcester need a bonus point win to finish first and not Castres will give 100% of their energy on that game

Worcester over 25.5 @ 1.79
Over 43.5 @ 1.68

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3 days 8 hours ago #17 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Challenge Cup (performance 27/46 = 59%)

Worcester 7.5 v Castres
S-line: 15
Bet minus

Dragons 41.5 v Enisei
S-line: 46
Bet minus

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3 days 6 hours ago #18 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan

bradie82 wrote: Probably going against most of the punters but I m gonna give a go at Lyon +6.5 @ 2.4 on BetFair Exchange

I think Lyon will use this game to prepare their Top 14 against Toulon and therefore bring a strong squad
Might be wrong but worth a shot


good prediction, Lyon into +1.5, Saints -1.5, making -4.5 backers like myself scratching head a bit.

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3 days 6 hours ago #19 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
off back of team news my acca for weekend -

Glasgow -4.5
Ospreys +26.5
Exeter -24.5
Racing +14.5

@ 10/1

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3 days 13 minutes ago #20 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Challenge Cup (performance 28/48 = 58%)

Pau 7.5 v Leicester
S-line: 10
Bet Minus

Cardiff 44.5 v Calvisano
S-line: 39
No bet. Dead rubber.

Zebre v Bristol 10.5
S-line: -14
Bet minus

Brive 11.5 v Stade Francais
S-line: 9
No bet. Dead rubber.

Edinburgh 29.5 v Agen
S-line: 47
Bet minus

Wasps 1.5 v Bordeaux
S-line: -5
Bet plus

Toulon 24.5 v Bayonne
S-line: 35
Bet minus

London Irish v Scarlets 6.5
S-line: -12
Bet minus

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2 days 14 hours ago #21 by Experienced Novice
Replied by Experienced Novice on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan

bradie82 wrote: Probably going against most of the punters but I m gonna give a go at Lyon +6.5 @ 2.4 on BetFair Exchange

I think Lyon will use this game to prepare their Top 14 against Toulon and therefore bring a strong squad
Might be wrong but worth a shot


Well done on the punt of the year, especially after Lyons team selection.

I have loaded up on the plus, outright etc. I simply can not see Saints winning this one and would write off all multiples in which they were included.
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2 days 9 hours ago #22 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Small interest on under 8.5 tries @ 1.66 in the Ulster vs Bath game - found that cut quite high

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2 days 8 hours ago #23 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Well done do all Saints backer
Could not see them trashing Lyon especially after the first half but no regret on the H+6.5 I took early this week

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2 days 5 hours ago #24 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Scarlets over 3.5 tries @ 1.90
They need a bonus point win to qualify for the quarterfinals
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2 days 4 hours ago #25 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Exeter -11.5 @ 9/10 at break. Ref has been shocking to them 1st half and expecting some decisions to finally go their way and pull away.

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2 days 3 hours ago #26 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan

bradie82 wrote: Scarlets over 3.5 tries @ 1.90
They need a bonus point win to qualify for the quarterfinals


Agreed and following.

They were awful last week, expecting much better performance tonight.

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1 day 14 hours ago #27 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Does anyone have any thoughts on the friendlies in SA today?

Sharks -2 vs Stormers
Lions -2 vs Bulls

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1 day 13 hours ago #28 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Have fired Ospreys over 13.5 pts @ 17/20 Sunbet.

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1 day 13 hours ago #29 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan

Northerner wrote: Does anyone have any thoughts on the friendlies in SA today?

Sharks -2 vs Stormers
Lions -2 vs Bulls


Weather will be rubbish and surface used mostly for footie. Would be inclined to avoid high points/tries.
If anything I would lean towards smalls on the Lions minus

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1 day 12 hours ago #30 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan

The Vann wrote:

Northerner wrote: Does anyone have any thoughts on the friendlies in SA today?

Sharks -2 vs Stormers
Lions -2 vs Bulls


Weather will be rubbish and surface used mostly for footie. Would be inclined to avoid high points/tries.
If anything I would lean towards smalls on the Lions minus


Sharks game has a cut of 52.5 - might be worth unders if it’s raining

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1 day 11 hours ago #31 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan

southpaw wrote:

Brad Breath wrote: Have just taken a bit more Racing +14.5

Looks as if Sarries will be relegated from the Prem and that's obviously got to be concerning for all their players.

Will almost certainly affect their prep and mental state.


agree, have taken some more of my Saints -4.5 /Racing +14.5 double @ 23/10, and some Racing +14.5 @ 5/6


Been getting twitchy a big exposure on racing and just not sure how Saracens react to news. Have covered stakes on Saracens -13.5 so effectively have decent sized free bet Racing -14.5 @ 11/10.

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1 day 7 hours ago #32 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Youlose 029.5 after 12, expect them to get on top and then pull clear as Glouc heads drop

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1 day 3 hours ago #33 by son_of_a_punt
Replied by son_of_a_punt on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
It was awesome to feature on The Handicap for the first time and chat some Heineken Cup with Brent and Brendon! Since the rugby is now done for the day and there’s nothing else to do, we thought we’d summarize our tips.

It was a bad start losing our first pick with the Leinster -18.5 (by half a point nogal), but boy did we bounce back.

We raked in on the Saints -4.5, Bath +23.5, Glasgow -4.5 and Connacht +12.5.

We suggested staying away from the Clermont and Exeter minuses, choosing to rather go with Mr Luke Cowan-Dickie, who tumbled over in the 11th minute. Wish we also took him for first try scorer (hindsight is the best sight though).

We got the Ospreys plus 25.5 wrong, wow they are horrendous, however it was a small play as we had no real interest in it.

For the final two games of the weekend we suggested no bet for the Toulouse game and rather punted the Racing +14.5. For those who follow us on Twitter we also recommended to not take Racing on the board, so was nice not to throw away any profit on that. But in saying that, unlucky to all the gents that had Racing outright - they really should have closed out that game out after the Skelton red card.

Anyway, hope everyone had a good weekend! Looking forward to the Hamilton and Sydney legs of the 7 series over the next two weekends - our favorite and most successful type of sport to bet on. Keep a look out for our tips.

Cheers
-SOFP

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18 hours 46 minutes ago #34 by Kirky
Well done guys.
Another colonoscopy for me though, despite 17/20 on Superbru.

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17 hours 20 minutes ago - 12 hours 16 minutes ago #35 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic Champions Cup & Challenge Cup 17th - 19th Jan
Have been finding Euro rugby really tough navigating all the different competitions, team selections, permutations and even weather conditions & trying to call every game (except the dead rubbers).

In saying that, my algorithm still surviving the onslaught of challenges and outperforming vs other available algorithms.

Euro Challenge

Weekend
BettingStig 5/8 = 63%
Rugbyvision 4/8 = 50%
Rugby4cast 4/8 = 50%

Tournament
BettingStig 32/54 = 59%
Rugbyvision 28/54 = 52%
Rugby4cast 31/54 = 57%

Euro Champs

Weekend
BettingStig 4/8 = 50%
Rugbyvision 4/8 = 50%
Rugby4cast 5/8 = 63%

Tournament
BettingStig 28/56 = 50%
Rugbyvision 22/56 = 39%
Rugby4cast 21/56 = 38%

Global totals

Rugbyvision 147/310 = 47%
Rugby4cast 150/310 = 48%
BettingStig 178/310 = 57%
Last edit: 12 hours 16 minutes ago by TheBettingStig.

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