Australian Open Tennis

Thread looks like it's dying a death so I will donate some of my hard earned pension
Mens e/w
Tsitsipas @ 14/1
Women e/w
Halep @ 10/1

Too busy these days, no time for previews.

Dimitrov + Berrettini + RB Agut + Djokovic 3-0 @2.05

Sakkari (WTA) + Wang (WTA) + Raonic @2.05

Mmoh vs RB Agut 0-3 @1.74

Bautista Agut is 7-0 this season without losing a single set, with 6 wins at the ATP Cup, and in round one here he dispatched Feliciano Lopez 3-0.
Mmoh is lingering at a lowly 217 in the world, while Bautista Agut is no. 9.

Lajovic + Agut 3-0 @2.05

Lajovic + Sakkari (WTA) 2-0 @1.97

Federer + Agut + Sakkari 2-0 @1.85

Fed 3-0 + S Williams 2-0 + Keys 2-0 @1.94

Thompson vs Fognini

Thompson played very well in the first round and defeated the up and coming Russian Bublik in 3 sets.

Fognini however showed that he wants it, as he came back from 2 sets down and beat the big serving Opelka in 3h 46min. He resisted a ton of aces from the American (35 to his only 11) and somehow he won.

Fognini is the better player of the two, and when he shows that fighting spirit I have to back him.

Thompson has the home crowd support, as well as he played very well against a strong opponent, so I think that this match will be long enough to cover 38.5 games.

Bet 1: Fognini - 1.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Total Games Over 38.5 @1.90

Krajinovic vs Federer

Krajinovic needed 5 long sets to get past Halys, a qualifier sitting at number 215, in 4 hours.
Federer needed 3 short sets to get past Johnson, winner of the Bendigo Challenger last week, in less than 1.5 hours.

Needless to talk about the class difference between the two.

Bet: Total games Under 30.5 @1.78

Excellent post. Totally makes sense the way you explained it
Keep them coming. I'll gladly follow

Bolt vs Thiem

Bolt played a marathon in the first round, defeating Ramos in 5 sets after 3.5 hours.

Thiem dispatched Mannarino 3-0.
Bolt, no. 140 in the world, a wild card entry at this tournament, plays his tennis mainly on the Challenger circuit, while Mannarino is a constant presence on the main ATP Tour.

Big difference between these two players, Thiem at number 5 in the world being a constant presence in the final stages of most tournaments.

Bet 1: Under 31.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: Thiem 3-0 @1.76

Sugita vs Rublev

Sugita is ranked 91 and in the first round eliminated a qualifier ranked in the 200s.

Rublev, seed no. 16 here, is coming after two consecutive titles in Doha and Adelaide, plus 4 Davis Cup wins prior to that.
He is on fire, full of energy and is on the rise.
He was a bit tested in the first round, by O'Connell, a Wild Card entry, and it may be because of fatigue due to the big amount of matches played inn a short period of time.
Having had a day in between these two matches should help the youngster, who at 22 should be able to recover fast.

Bet 1: Rublev 3-0 @1.96
Bet 2: Under 32.5 games @1.86

Dart vs Halep

Dart is a qualifier ranked 173, who struggled to beat Misaki Doi, a player who has not had an impact on the tennis stage for a long time, in almost 3 hours, coming back from the brink of defeat.

Halep is seed no. 4 and in the first round she beat Jennifer Brady, no. 49, in just over 1.5 hrs.

I expect a short day at the office for Halep.

Bet: Halep win and Under 18.5 games @1.90

Thanks, I followed, came through nicely.

Nadal vs Delbonis

This is the fourth meeting between these two players. Nadal won every time without losing a set, and actually never losing more than 5 games in a match.

Delbonis, ranked 76, beat Sousa in the previous round, but Sousa had been on a very long run of poor form.

Nadal demolished Dellien (ranked 73) in the previous round, 6-2 6-3 6-0.

I expect a similar result here.

Bet: Under 25.5 games @1.98

Quill wrote: Dart vs Halep

Dart is a qualifier ranked 173, who struggled to beat Misaki Doi, a player who has not had an impact on the tennis stage for a long time, in almost 3 hours, coming back from the brink of defeat.

Halep is seed no. 4 and in the first round she beat Jennifer Brady, no. 49, in just over 1.5 hrs.

I expect a short day at the office for Halep.

Bet: Halep win and Under 18.5 games @1.90

Wow, Halep nearly did me.
She had match point on her serve at 5-2, lost the serve, lost the next one too, and when back on her own serve again she had to save another break point and needed 3 match points to nail it.

Was also on this. Halep almost threw it away!

Schwartzman vs Lajovic

Over 3.5 sets @ 1.66

Wang vs Williams

Serena Williams is in devastating form this season. She won in Auckland dropping just one set, and here in Melbourne she us demolishing her opponents.
These two players met once before, at the US Open last year, when Williams gave Wang a beating, 6-1 6-0.

Bet: Under 18.5 games @1.97

Sandgren vs Querrey

Both players are in similar form and they have one thing in common: both are big hitters.When they met last year at Wimbledon, they gave us a long match, four sets with 3 tie-breakers, and plenty of aces.
I expect something similar today.

Bet: Total over 41.5 games @1.87

Rublev vs Zverev

Zverev leads H2H meetings 3-0, however Rublev is playing much better now than he was last time they met.
This year he won the tournaments in Doha and Adelaide and now at the Open he played great tennis, eliminating Goffin in the previous round.

Zverev, on the other hand, hasn't lost a set at this tournament yet, and he wants to go past the quarter-finals, which is the best result he has achieved yet at a Grand Slam.

This one looks like a competitive match.

Bet: Over 39.5 games @1.88

Nadal vs Kyrgios

Big stakes into this match between two players who don't like each other.
Kyrgios plays at home and despite the fact that in the last round he played the longest match of his career, 4.5 hours or so, while Nadal cruised through all rounds in 3 sets, I think that Kyrgios will feed off the energy from the home crowd.
He was also wearing a "Lakers" shirt earlier, so he will have extra motivation.

These two players met two times at a Grand Slam, both times at Wimbledon, and they each won once.

Whoever gets the win, I think the other player will put up a good fight in this match, which also the media built up on, fueling the rivalry, so when I see only 33.5 games as the total, I want to put a beer on it.

Bet: Total Games Over 33.5 @1.83

Barty vs Kvitova

These two players met 7 times so far, Kvitova leading the H2H 4-3.Last year they met at the Australian Open when Kvitova won 2-0.This time Barty is an improved player and she may win this match. However, both players are in great form, so I don't think that this will be a straightforward win for either of them.

Bet 1: Kvitova +1.5 @1.83
Bet 2: Over 21.5 @1.80

Wow, what a collapse Kvitova!

Sandgren vs Federer

Federer was lucky against Millman, then lost a set to Fucsovics, he wasn't at his best.
Sandgren is solid on his own serve and should give Federer a fight.

Bet 1: Sandgren +7.5 @1.83
Bet 2: Total Games Over 31.5 @1.90

Raonic vs Djokovic

Raonic has not lost a single set in his 4 matches so far, and not only that, but he has not even lost his serve once.
At the same time he has been firing aces by the truckload, and his opponents included Tsitsipas and Cilic.

Djokovic has lost one set here to Struff, but he has been dominant against lowly ranked opponents.
That being said, he is nowhere else as successful as he is here in Melbourne.
It is difficult to break his serve, as he is one of the best returners on the tour, but Raonic can certainly force a tie-break with his booming serve, himself difficult to be broken.

Bet: Over 3.5 sets @1.84

Alternatively, as some bookies may not have this bet (e.g. bet365), I took Over 35.5 games @1.77.

Quill wrote: Raonic vs Djokovic

Raonic has not lost a single set in his 4 matches so far, and not only that, but he has not even lost his serve once.
At the same time he has been firing aces by the truckload, and his opponents included Tsitsipas and Cilic.

Djokovic has lost one set here to Struff, but he has been dominant against lowly ranked opponents.
That being said, he is nowhere else as successful as he is here in Melbourne.
It is difficult to break his serve, as he is one of the best returners on the tour, but Raonic can certainly force a tie-break with his booming serve, himself difficult to be broken.

Bet: Over 3.5 sets @1.84

Alternatively, as some bookies may not have this bet (e.g. bet365), I took Over 35.5 games @1.77.

Quill
First of all thanks for the tips
qq : why not take the over 3.5 sets @ 2.10 on bet365 (No straight sets winner) as I know you play on that bookie

bradie82 wrote:

Quill wrote: Raonic vs Djokovic

Raonic has not lost a single set in his 4 matches so far, and not only that, but he has not even lost his serve once.
At the same time he has been firing aces by the truckload, and his opponents included Tsitsipas and Cilic.

Djokovic has lost one set here to Struff, but he has been dominant against lowly ranked opponents.
That being said, he is nowhere else as successful as he is here in Melbourne.
It is difficult to break his serve, as he is one of the best returners on the tour, but Raonic can certainly force a tie-break with his booming serve, himself difficult to be broken.

Bet: Over 3.5 sets @1.84

Alternatively, as some bookies may not have this bet (e.g. bet365), I took Over 35.5 games @1.77.

Quill
First of all thanks for the tips
qq : why not take the over 3.5 sets @ 2.10 on bet365 (No straight sets winner) as I know you play on that bookie

I somehow didn't see it!!
Thank you, I took it.

By the way, Sandgren had 7 (match points) and couldn't convert any.
Shows how important is the experience at this level.
Fed dodged yet another bullet.
He should retire already, he struggles to keep up at this level now.

Bet365 has now the over set up at 34.5 @ 1.83 so gonna give it a go

Kontaveit vs Halep

Halep has been cruising at this tournament, winning all her matches in straight sets, never spending more than 98 minutes on court.
She is the most experienced left in the competition, having played 13 grand slam quarterfinals, winning two times.
These two players met two times before, Halep winning both times in two quick sets.

Bet: Halep 2-0 @2.00

Muguruza vs Pavlyuchenkova

These two players met 5 times so far, Pavlyuchenkova having won only once, and that via retirement.In the other 4 matches Muguruza won in straight sets each time.

After two more difficult matches to start her campaign, following her withdrawal in Hobart a few days before due to illness, Muguruza has been feeling better and better and rolled past her last two opponents, dispatching Svitolina (no. 6) and Bertens (no. 9) each in just over an hour. 

Pavlyuchenkova had three very long matches in the previous rounds, a 3-setter against Kerber and previous to that, although she had won in two sets, they were all tie-breakers.

Bet: Muguruza 2-0 @2.45

Double, in case they don't win 2-0, they should still be able to pull out a win

Halep + Muguruza @2.10

Wawrinka vs Zverev

Zverev cruised through the four rounds so far, winning all his matches in straight sets. He is also leading the H2H 2-0, however both matches went the distance and they took place a few years ago.

At a Grand Slam Wawrinka is a different player. He is a three time champion, while Zverev has always disappointed at Grand Slams.
Also, Wawrinka showed in his match against Medvedev what it's like to be a Grand Slam winner. He turned the match around and won it from 2 sets to 1 down, and Medvedev is one of the best and most in form players on the tour right now.

OK, Zverev is younger and has played shorter matches than Wawrinka here, but still. We also saw Federer showing what a champion is, by digging himself out from deep holes in two different matches and ending up as a winner.

Wawrinka has the experience and quality, Zverev still has to prove it at this level.

I think this will be a long match, same like the previous two between them.

Cheap beer stakes on each bet.

Bet 1: Wawrinka +2.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Total Games Over 39.5 @1.90

Quill wrote: Double, in case they don't win 2-0, they should still be able to pull out a win

Halep + Muguruza @2.10

Yay, all three bets in!

Nadal vs Thiem

These two players met 13 times so far, but only once on a hard court, at the US Open 2018, when Nadal won in 5 sets.
Both players are in outstanding form and this should be an entertaining long match. In their last two Grand Slams encounters, they played a 5-setter and a 4-setter. This one should be at least 4 sets too. Both of them leave everything on the court.

Bet 1: Over 38.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: Straight Sets Winner? (Either player to win to 0) - No @1.66

Quality on the ladies Quill.
Joining on the Nadal v Thiem games and adding
Nadal 3 - 1 sets @ 29/10

Quill wrote: Nadal vs Thiem

These two players met 13 times so far, but only once on a hard court, at the US Open 2018, when Nadal won in 5 sets.
Both players are in outstanding form and this should be an entertaining long match. In their last two Grand Slams encounters, they played a 5-setter and a 4-setter. This one should be at least 4 sets too. Both of them leave everything on the court.

Bet 1: Over 38.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: Straight Sets Winner? (Either player to win to 0) - No @1.66

Dinerrrroooooooooooooooo!!!!!

Men Doubles
Dodig/Polasek vz Purcell/Saville

Dodig/Polasek are one of the most experienced pairs in men's doubles, having beaten all the top pairs in various competitions.

Purcell /Saville play mainly at Challenger level.

Bet: Dodig/Polasek 2-0 @1.80

Barty vs Kenin

Everybody is behind Barty to advance to the final and she probably will.
The thing is Kenin wants it too. She has played very good tennis here and she lost only one set. Barty has had a few longer sets and I hope that Kenin will put enough pressure on her to keep this match long.
Two rounds ago Barty lost a set to Riske, who plays a similar style of tennis to Kenin, and Kenin beat Riske at the end of year Finals.

Bet: Over 20.5 games @1.80

Halep vs Muguruza

Halep has been dominant in her matches so far. She hasn't lost a single set and in the previous round she demolished Kontaveit 6-1 6-1.

H2H between these two players is 3-2 to Muguruza.

Halep has already beaten Mugugruza at a Grand Slam (French Open) two years ago. Halep has improved her game on other surfaces as well, and after the French Open she won Wimbledon and now she wants to win the Australian Open.

Muguruza is playing very well too, but as Halep is on an ascending form and is brimming with confidence, I'm taking her to win after a hard fought match.

Bet 1: Halep win @1.63
Bet 2: Over 21.5 games @1.80

Federer vs Djokovic

This is Djokovic's house, this is the place that he loves most on the tour, this is where he feels most comfortable, this is where he won his most Slams.
He already chased Federer away from Wimbledon, which was supposed to be Federer's house. Now Federer is struggling to beat the likes of Millman (Millman was 8-4 in the final tie-break and couldn't reach 10 points from there to beat Federer), and Sandgren (ranked at 100 in the world), who had 7 match points, 4 of them in a row.

Djokovic on the other hand lost just one set in the first round and since then he's been dispatching his opponents with ease, like in training sessions.

This Federer has no chance with this Djokovic. Federer shouldn't even be here, he dodged too many bullets already.

I don't think that Federer can keep up with Djokovic, not even to get to a tie-break, especially on the slower than usual conditions this year in Melbourne. 

Bet 1: Tiebreak in Match - No @2.10
Bet 2: Djokovic 3-0 @1.86

Taken Thiem -1.5 sets win @ just under a shade of 9/10 with Sunbet.

Lost Halep outright yesterday so replacing with
Thiem to win title @ 4/1

The Vann wrote: Lost Halep outright yesterday so replacing with
Thiem to win title @ 4/1

I hope so too.
He's come a long way, he should win one soon.