Sydney 7's Betting Thread

I'm reposting my post from earlier on the other thread:

The wait is almost over...Super Rugby is back baby!

Looking forward to a great season of punting. Will be in Europe for the season, so have to check which sites I will still have access to.

Just a thought on the Sydney 7's:

Interesting to see what the outright price on Australia will be. I thought they played very well and pushed both NZ and Fiji close in their games in Hamilton. Add to that the issues the country has been having with the fires etc, I reckon the team will be super pumped to give Australians some good news.

If the suspected favourites win in each pool then for the semis we're getting:

Australia v South Africa
New Zealand v England

You'd fancy Australia (should they beat the US) to beat South Africa based on last week, and New Zealand (or Fiji) may struggle backing up from a tough pool.

Taking Australia each way sounds like a goer here, if the price is right.

Things we learnt in Hamilton:
- The Blitzboks are seriously over-valued and the likes of Cecil Afrika, Branco du Preez and Werner Kok were superb in 2015 but seem a bit passed it, esp Afrika!
- Fiji are not the same powerhouse as last season
- The "2nd tier 7s nations" are on the rise! Kenya, Argies and France
- Wales are absolute rubbish

Onto Sydney 7s
Agree with the value in Australia to win. They played really well in Hamilton and always perform well in their own back yard, winning back in 2018 at 20/1!

Roll on the handicaps for the first 8!

It's time to start getting excited for the Sydney 7s - the outright and pool winner markets have been released!

Sydney Sevens Winner:
New Zealand @2.45, Australia @4.75, Fiji @5.00, South Africa @5.00, England @ 5.75, France @11.25, USA @12.75, Argentina @49.00. Canada @57.00, Ireland @73.00, Kenya @83.00, Samoa @119.00, Scotland @174.00, Spain @419.00, Wales @559.00 and Japan @559.00.

Pool A:
New Zealand @0.30, Fiji @2.30, Kenya @9.25 and Wales @169

Pool B:
South Africa @0.70, France @2.20, Argentina @4.50 and Samoa @9.75

Pool C:
Australia @0.35, USA @1.85, Scotland @13.25 and Japan @83

Pool D:
England @0.30, Canada @3.75, Ireland @5 and Spain @33.

Thoughts:
We like to make our money on the match caps and don't really get too involved in outright markets. However, we going to put a small interest in Argentina @49 and Samoa @119. They are both in the pool of death, hence their ridiculously high odds. If one of them can top the pool they will probably play Australia in the semi's and anything can happen there.

We're looking forward to chatting 7s with RuggaBugga tomorrow night where we will share our full thoughts on the match handicaps and finding where the value is!

Posting from other thread - handicaps for opening set of games from bet365 can be seen below

Game handicaps are out!

Game: USA vs Scotland
Pick: Scotland +12.5
Logic: USA just are not the same without Folua Niua in the set up. Teams are starting to read their tactic of getting it straight out to Baker and Isles. Scotland have been playing some decent rugby, winning a lot of restarts. This cap is pretty accurate.

Game: Australia vs Japan
Pick: Australia -22.5 @1.85 (BEST BET)
Logic: Australia had a great showing in Dubai and Hamilton. Their poor time in Cape Town was due to big players missing. But they’re back now and ready to do damage. Don’t rate Quadzilla in the team, but I think he will be good against the minnows, and the Japs will have a tough time defending him with Maurice breaking ankles.

Game: Argentina vs South Africa
Pick: Argentina +6.5
Logic: Blitzbokke aren’t looking good with some of their stars missing. No question about, they still have a quality team, but I think they need a bit of time to play together. Argentina on the other hand are improving every tournament. They ranked 5th and 3rd for restarts over the last two tournaments, and we really like the look of them.

Game: France vs Samoa
Pick: France -5.5 @1.80 (BEST BET)
Logic: Allez le bleu! These French men are playing great rugby at the moment. Such a well rounded team with strength, speed and tactics. A bit weary of Samoa starting strong as they normally tend to do that. But in saying that, we still massive fans of the France -5.5.

Game: Canada vs Ireland
Pick: Canada to win the match @1.79 (BEST BET)
Logic: The Canucks are coming off an extremely strong tournament in Hamilton, finishing the tournament trumping USA convincingly. Ireland did impress in the first two legs of the series with Conroy causing havoc on the wing. However, Canada have a very experienced team and should take care of Ireland just like they did last week.


Game: England v Spain
Pick: Spain +17.5
Logic: england were good last weekend, but Spain know how to hang around. We’re not too keen on anything in this game to be honest.

Game: Kenya v Fiji
Pick: Fiji -6.5 (BEST BET)
Logic: as great as Kenya have been this season, Fiji need to bounce back and 1 try cap on them is extremely rare. You also never really know which Kenyan side are going to turn up.

Game: New Zealand v wales
Pick: NZ -32.5
Logic: Wales are horrific and New Zealand are the in form team. I don’t see anything changing and in the hot conditions, the fit kiwis should run rampant.

We have indicated our four best bets and those are the only ones we are going to be taking. Catch us on the Goodforthegame show on YouTube later where we will chat 7s with RuggaBugga and maybe have our mind changed about some of the games!

There will be scorching temperatures this weekend in Sydney.
In Parramatta area, where the stadium is, there will be 41 deg C with 41% humidity and a sunny Saturday, and on Sunday there will be 37 deg C with 49% humidity and 50% chance of precipitation.

Samoa v France over 35.5 points

For the women, managed to grab $18 for the US (or 17/1 or +1700) for a small play, too much value here for the only team that's been successful in eliminating New Zealand in the cup draw over the course of the last year (three times in fact). Also they had an easier tournament compared to the other big teams, playing only four games, the last of which was an easy 45-5 pumping.

For the first couple of matches I like:

USA women minus and 13+ (opened at -6.5, now -7.5)
Canada women -21.5 v Brazil

After the show we have decided to make one change and we are going to side with Sean on his England -16.5 against Spain!

Game: USA vs Scotland
Pick: Scotland +12.5 @1.80

Game: Australia vs Japan
Pick: Australia -22.5 @1.85 (BEST BET)

Game: Argentina vs South Africa
Pick: Argentina +6.5 @ 2

Game: France vs Samoa
Pick: France -5.5 @1.80 (BEST BET)

Game: Canada vs Ireland
Pick: Canada to win @1.79 (BEST BET)

Game: England v Spain
Pick: England -16.5 @1.80

Game: Kenya v Fiji
Pick: Fiji -6.5 @1.80 (BEST BET)

Game: New Zealand v Wales
Pick: NZ -32.5 @1.80

Note, as stated earlier, we are only going to take the four bets that we indicated as our best bets. However, we just shared our thoughts on all the games for interest sake. We will be back early morning on Saturday for round 2 matches!

Teams are confirmed. Big changes in the Japan squad where Lote Tuqiri is not playing this weekend, he is one of their better players on the circuit so a big blow to them. They also without the debutant "Samoan" Sufia who looked a big solid unit last weekend so they are definitely short on the strength side!
Making Aussies -23.5 a cracker and rubber stamping it with the SOAPie Stars

Glad you guys have switched England, you might go 8 out of 8 now

New Zealand lose Joe Webber but have ample cover for him

Samoa are without Motuga so they are not as strong as last weekend.

Scotland don't have a 13th man so look to go against them on Day 2 if they get injuries as they will be spread thin

Spain get Javier Carrion back and he is pretty decent which makes their side a bit stronger this weekend

Wales lose George Gasson so believe it or not, they are actually worse this weekend

My best 4 for first 8
Aussies -23.5 vs Japan
Fiji -6.5 vs Kenya (Will even take the -8.5)
France -6.5 vs Samoa (Will even take the -8.5)
NZ -33.5 vs Wales ... CRICKET SCORE HERE!

Quick thank you to Son of a Punt and Rugga - you've both absolutely nailed your selections across the board yet again. Another acca win - remarkable stuff

RuggaBugga wrote: My best 4 for first 8
Aussies -23.5 vs Japan
Fiji -6.5 vs Kenya (Will even take the -8.5)
France -6.5 vs Samoa (Will even take the -8.5)
NZ -33.5 vs Wales ... CRICKET SCORE HERE!

Booooooooooom!!!

Great start to round 1 with all our best bets coming home!

for round 2:

USA -20.5 v Japs @0.85

Argies outright v Samoa @0.7

Kenya -16.5 v Wales @0.85

The amazing run continues with the Sevens! Well done Rugga & Son of a punt, very impressive!!

Rubber stamping the Sons of Punts tips

Then adding South Africa -10.5 vs France
France are without Veredamu as he got a red card in previous match. JP Berraque looks injured so the French are in trouble. Blitzies are on the up and while it all went there way against the ARgies, I think they smack the tired French here

Taken cover on France +11.5
Veredamu and JP are playing for the French so not as bullish

On team news, we're following and taking frogs +11.5 at 0.9 !

Another good round of 7s betting! Our best bets for round 3:

Scotland -9.5 v japs ; scots play good rugby and they need a big win to ensure they're in the highest placed 3rd playoff.

Ireland -4.5 v Spain ; If Ireland win then they come second. The ireland game is also before Canada v england so they must assume england will win and thus will try to get a healthy W v spain, which they have historically. A 10 point PD swing is required to come 2nd.

Fiji -29.5 v Wales ; no explanation required (but Wales have got a W in the group so are now in the 3rd place pool. They know they can’t do better than worst 3rd so they’ll rest up for that playoff game)

Canada +19.5 v england ; canada still in with a chance of winning the pool. england just need the win. think the cap is way too big

Firstly congratulations to Son of a Punt (SOAP) aka Barcelona Boys. Hottest streak I have ever seen on GFTG forum. Percentages in Hamilton and Sydney have been out of the park. So impressed I joined Twitter yesterday! Yet to send my first tweet.

Of your four selected games I am thinking Barcelona Boys Best Bet (BBBB) has got to be Scotland -9.5 v Japan.
Thats the game I am picking to double down on.

Good luck with the rest of the tournament, HSBC World series and Tokyo Olympic 7'S

Cheers 3P

Lines for Ireland, Fiji and Canada have moved to -6.5, -31.5 & +15.5 respectively (BBBB market movers!).

Jags -12 $ has hit the account so having a go at Ireland Fiji double. Cheers 3P

France vs Canada

Canada +5.5 @1.88

Argentina vs Ireland
Argentina -6.5 @1.88

New Zealand vs Australia

Australia +8.5 @1.90

Downpour here, so I took another bet.

NZ vs Australia Under 29.5 @1.90

NZ -7.5 v Aussie

Betting on Fiji 7s
(-2.5) Points Start
South Africa 7s v Fiji 7s
@ 1.92 TAB NZ

FInishing with a BOOOOOMMM Fiji on fire. Cannot believe it is only -2.5.

I hope everyone else managed to jump on the unders for all of the games when the rain started. I was just quick enough before the books closed all the totals markets. Conditions are tough out there!

Edit: I see points lines back up.

threepeat wrote: Betting on Fiji 7s
(-2.5) Points Start
South Africa 7s v Fiji 7s
@ 1.92 TAB NZ

FInishing with a BOOOOOMMM Fiji on fire. Cannot believe it is only -2.5.

Hollywoodbets have Fiji outright at 9/10

Women's Sevens

Australia to beat France -5.5 @1.87

NZ to beat Canada -3.5 @1.80

Double Australia + NZ @2.09

[quote=
"son_of_a_punt" post=94306]Another good round of 7s betting! Our best bets for round 3:

[/quote]
some serious tipping there - methinks you blokes went "back to the future" with Marty McFly and got a copy of his sportsbook

Sensational tipping from the Son of a Punt! Have honestly not seen a better run before. Seriously impressive boys. Long may it continue!

Cracking tournament. I could not call those scots right all weekend though. They screwed me in game 1 on Saturday and again on game 1 Sunday. They are the Blues of the 7s circuit!

Fiji are creeping back to their best but the Blitzies could have won that final. Sets up nicely for US and Canada legs. Well played everyone on the unders train in the rain.

Saving that 7s loot for LA!
Booooooooooom