Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby

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4 years 1 month ago - 4 years 1 month ago #1 by Brent Graham
Ok lads straight into week 2 and in the interests of disclosure I watched a total of around 50 minutes of rugby this weekend due to school sport

A good weekend for the previews though with 6/7 winners and the loss just a lonely unit on the Rebels winning margin

Here are my projected handicaps and GGGaming will be out at 12h15 (EDIT GGG came out at 10h30)

Highlanders -6.5 v Sharks
Brumbies -4.5 v Rebels
Chiefs -0.5 v Crusaders
Waratahs +2.5 v Blues
Lions -8.5 v Reds
Stormers -7.5 v Bulls
Jaguares -6.5 v Hurricanes

Here is the video


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Last edit: 4 years 1 month ago by Brent Graham.

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4 years 1 month ago #2 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
GGG are out - theirs t the right

Highlanders -6.5 v Sharks (no cap but o/r relates to around 4.5)
Brumbies -4.5 v Rebels (no cap but o/r relates to around 4.5)
Chiefs -0.5 v Crusaders +8.5
Waratahs +2.5 v Blues choice
Lions -8.5 v Reds (No cap but o/r relates to around -3.5)
Stormers -7.5 v Bulls -10.5
Jaguares -6.5 v Hurricanes -12.5

I like the Chiefs +8.5 and Canes +12.5 early doors

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4 years 1 month ago #3 by hanrick
All over the Chiefs +8.5

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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4 years 1 month ago #4 by coil
Was away in the USA on Saturday Sunday but back this weekend.

Mine to the extreme right in bold , without looking .


="Brent Graham" post=94333]GGG are out - theirs t the right

Highlanders -6.5 v Sharks (no cap but o/r relates to around 4.5) MINUS 3.5
Brumbies -4.5 v Rebels (no cap but o/r relates to around 4.5). MINUS 6.5
Chiefs -0.5 v Crusaders -8.5 CHIEFS PLUS 5.5
Waratahs +2.5 v Blues choice. CHOICE
Lions -8.5 v Reds (No cap but o/r relates to around -3.5). LIONS MINUS 5.5
Stormers -7.5 v Bulls -10.5. MINUS 8.5
Jaguares -6.5 v Hurricanes -12.5. MINUS 8.5

I like the Chiefs +8.5 and Canes +12.5 early doors[/quote]

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4 years 1 month ago #5 by coil
And my 6 Nations

Ire minus 6.5 vs Wales
Scot plus 6.5 vs Eng
France minus 29.5 vs Italy

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4 years 1 month ago #6 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
Razor Robertson v Warren Gatland

The show down of the two rugby coaches who are widely regarded as better coaches than incumbent AB Coach Fossie Foster. This game is huge.

I am picking Crusaders to WIN this Round 2 Away fixture.

46 AB Test Prop Joe Moody should return for 60 minutes. Cody Taylor should start for 60 mins.
This changes the dynamic of the Crusader leadership group, freeing up Scooter Barrett to do what he does best. win lineouts and lead from the front.

For Chiefs Hooker Nathan Harris is gone for the season. Expect Damien Mckenzie to be out this week with adducter, but no word yet.

Chiefs +8.5 is a lot and an early bet may give you cash out or spread option later. No odds yet at TAB NZ.

Full Disclosure I picked Crusaders in Chiefs Fiji fixture last year and they lost 40-27. Crusaders Old Boys ran out of gas in Suva heat v young Chiefs team. Those guys are resting their 1,000 caps in the Japanese League. New look Crusaders firing and ready to play for Razor and they owe the Chiefs. Big motivation. Cheers 3P

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4 years 1 month ago #7 by CLrugby
You got lucky with these H, B365 and most bookies opened with Chiefs +3.5 and Canes +5.5.

GL everyone

@Chris_Lacharge

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4 years 1 month ago #8 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
Early calls

Sharks plus 9.5
Reds plus 7.5
Jaguares minus 5.5

Twitter @BettingStig

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4 years 1 month ago #9 by mackem
Post Match Scuffle, Couch Critic's weekly Super Rugby blog makes a welcome return

New logo, same slaying

goodforthegame.co.za/Couch-Critic/post-m...an-same-slaying.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 1 month ago #10 by mackem
Super Rugby outright betting update including the conferences

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2020/su...te-3rd-february.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 1 month ago #11 by NicG
Jaguares minus 6.5 vs Canes jump out. They're on a high after a massive win, whilst the Canes really looked extremely average....and they have to travel this week

I really believe Jaguares will dominate up front and cover this minus easily

I expected minus 10.5 at least

Thoughts from you guys?

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4 years 1 month ago - 4 years 1 month ago #12 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
My early fancy is the Reds +7.5 @ 1.89 with B365

They've covered this in 4 out of 5 of the last H2Hs

The extra half a point is crucial - (covers more than 1 score and the losing BP range)
Last edit: 4 years 1 month ago by Brad Breath.

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4 years 1 month ago #13 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
On tonights USE IT OR LOSE IT at 21h00 we review week 1 of Super Rugby with focus on the SA teams - while not a betting show we will take a look at some of the long term betting moves



Click Here to watch in You Tube and comment live

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4 years 1 month ago #14 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
An enjoyable review with 2 very knowledgeable rugby pundits Couch Critic and @Jaredwright17

Click here to listen and download as a podcast

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4 years 1 month ago #15 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
Landers -6.5
Saders -2.5
Blues Win
Jags -5.5 (BB)

All TAB NZ, Individual bets + Multi bet
Games of the round Razor v Gatland in Hamilton and Downtown Tony Brown's "Shark Attack" in Dunedin
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4 years 1 month ago #16 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby

TheBettingStig wrote: Early calls

Sharks plus 9.5
Reds plus 7.5
Jaguares minus 5.5


Crusaders minus 2.5
Brumbies minus 5.5
Waratahs plus 3.5
Stormers minus 10.5

Twitter @BettingStig
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4 years 1 month ago #17 by CLrugby
Ioane out for the Blues, it’s going to be a long season ...

@Chris_Lacharge

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4 years 1 month ago #18 by Zambusta
Also still no Finn Russell for Scotland.
Still suspended for breaching team protocols last week...getting pissed.

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4 years 1 month ago #19 by stokes1982
Replied by stokes1982 on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
Ireland v Wales

Not sure if anyone has access to Betway uk, but they've priced up the following as a requestabet and it seems ridiculously generous ( unless I'm missing something )

Either team to win by 1-12 @ 2/1
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4 years 1 month ago #20 by mackem
Good spot Stokes, that is sure to tumble, I'm also expecting a tight game and have gone with Wales +4.5 points as best plus I could find in SA

Ireland v Wales preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/i...betting-preview.html

3 units Wales +4.5 points at 9/10 with WSB

Unit Scale 1-5

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 1 month ago #21 by mackem
Scotland v England preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/s...betting-preview.html

A couple of units on England to win by 1-12 pts, 14/10 with BetXchange best I could find right now

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 1 month ago #22 by mackem
France v Italy preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/f...betting-preview.html

1 unit on France to win by 21-30 pts inc, 22/10 BetXchange

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 1 month ago #23 by stokes1982
Replied by stokes1982 on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby

stokes1982 wrote: Ireland v Wales

Not sure if anyone has access to Betway uk, but they've priced up the following as a requestabet and it seems ridiculously generous ( unless I'm missing something )

Either team to win by 1-12 @ 2/1


Unfortunately, bets gone and stake reimbursed. Had a feeling that they might of priced that up wrong lol

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4 years 1 month ago - 4 years 1 month ago #24 by son_of_a_punt
Replied by son_of_a_punt on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
Unfortunately the 7s is behind us (until LA & Vancouver in just under a month) and we have to turn our attention to the longer format of the game.

We are going to be focusing on Super Rugby this weekend, there are some mouth-watering encounters that await us! Here is where the value is at in round 2 of the competition:

Match: Brumbies vs Rebels
Pick: Brumbies -6.5 (Hollywoodbets)
Logic: Rebels were terrible against the Wolves. Everyone is expecting them to bounce back against the Brumbies, but we don't think that is going to happen. Brumbies have only made one change to the side that beat the Reds last week, which is great show of consistency. Rebels have an amazing backline, there is no denying that, but the Brumbies forwards could prove to be too strong... and if that happens the Rebels backline is not going to see the ball much. Rain, rain and more rain predicted for the game, which is putting us even more on the side of the Brumbies as the conditions play perfectly into their hands.

Match: Chiefs vs Crusaders aka Gatland vs Razor Robertson
Pick: Crusaders -2.5 (BetOlimp) aka Razor -2.5
Logic: Conditions look great on Saturday evening in Hamilton. Chiefs are set to miss All Black props Nepo Laulala and Angus Ta'avao - this is a huge blow as the Crusaders' forward pack is not one to be messed with! The Chiefs do have a fit and healthy Aaron Cruden to start at 10, but this likely comes with the loss of Damian McKenzie. We think that the Crusaders are going to be able to get on top of the Chiefs, which will allow Richie Mo'unga and his incredible backline to wreak havoc.

Match: Waratahs vs Blues
Pick: Waratahs +3.5 (Hollywood)
Logic: Massive winds and rain all weekend in Newcastle Australia (the venue for this match due to the fires). For us, this screams a game that is going to be won in the forwards. The Waratahs boast a pretty impressive forward pack, whilst the Blues have been hit with injuries. Front-rowers Alex Hodgman and Ray Niuia are out. Moreover, The Blues lose their best player from last week, with Rieko Ioane fracturing his hand. Blues didn't win a game on the road last season and we think that is not going to change this weekend. Also could be interested in an unders play if the line is high enough.

Twitter: son_of_a_punt | Time to win some beer money
Last edit: 4 years 1 month ago by son_of_a_punt.
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4 years 1 month ago #25 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
The 1st of our previews for the weekend - handicap where I expected it so going Highlanders to win by 1-12

Highlanders v Sharks Preview

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4 years 1 month ago #26 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
Struggling for inspiration in Fridays matches an as often happens in these situations the 1-12 point winning margin is the fall back

Brumbies v Rebels Preview

Looking forward to chatting with Hanrick and Andrew (one half of Son of a Punt) on tonights THE HANDICAP at 21h00


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4 years 1 month ago #27 by hanrick

hanrick wrote: All over the Chiefs +8.5


Taking some more Chiefs to win the game at 12/10. Betting for this game is the wrong way round and if it was switched I would have taken the 8/10 Chiefs now aswell.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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4 years 1 month ago #28 by son_of_a_punt
Replied by son_of_a_punt on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
We see that Chiefs have McKenzie in the starting line up...and no Mo’unga for the Crusaders! Bit worried about the -2.5, but nothing we can do now.

Twitter: son_of_a_punt | Time to win some beer money

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4 years 1 month ago #29 by hanrick

son_of_a_punt wrote: We see that Chiefs have McKenzie in the starting line up...and no Mo’unga for the Crusaders! Bit worried about the -2.5, but nothing we can do now.


But we knew yesterday morning already that Mo'unga wouldn't play... ;)

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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4 years 1 month ago #30 by The Vann
For those (like me) who agree with Hanrick Sportsbet still have Chiefs @ 31/20

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4 years 1 month ago #31 by Zambusta
As exciting and good as Damian MacKenzie is, just remember he didn't play most of last season and had ACL surgery (which is the worst ligament to tear in your knee). This is pretty much his first game back since April last year. It will take a few games for him to get up to pace again.

Just a thought.

I'm sticking on the Crusaders...the team sheet looks very good.

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4 years 1 month ago - 4 years 1 month ago #32 by Zambusta
...and the Crusaders won't fall away in the second half like the Blues ALWAYS do.
Last edit: 4 years 1 month ago by Zambusta. Reason: repeated post

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4 years 1 month ago #33 by mackem
Big thanks to Thoughts On Sports for his Super Rugby preview plays which you can find in this blog

goodforthegame.co.za/Thoughts-On-Sports/...-2-betting-tips.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 1 month ago #34 by mackem
An a big thanks to Couch Critic as well for his Super Rugby plays inc the 1st and last tryscorer specials

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...-week-2-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 1 month ago #35 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby

hanrick wrote:

son_of_a_punt wrote: We see that Chiefs have McKenzie in the starting line up...and no Mo’unga for the Crusaders! Bit worried about the -2.5, but nothing we can do now.


But we knew yesterday morning already that Mo'unga wouldn't play... ;)


I can see we will have some interesting chat around this one on tonights show :lol:

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4 years 1 month ago #36 by coil
A reasonable start for me last weekend , this weekend I feel I've left my run a little late and as a result some of the games I was eyeing out have become quite difficult to pick.

I'm leaning towards the Sharks in the first match on Friday , the cap looks reasonably set at 7.5 , 6.5 in most places and with a run under their belts I'm hoping they'll run the Highlanders in their first start close .

the second game on Friday is a bit of a tough one , I was hoping for a little larger on the plus Rebels. They were atrocious last week against the Sunwolves and lacked any kind of leadership on the field . It is tough to see them making huge improvement in a week while the Brumbies fought back well against the Reds last week in Canberra .

To be honest Australian rugby is plain awful nowadays and I havent enjoyed their sides for ages . There is a chance of some showers so total points could be an option but for now it'll be a tentative watch and should the Brumbies get off to a flyer I may look to punt the Rebels in running .

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4 years 1 month ago #37 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
Some grim weather due to hit all 3 Six Nations games this weekend - rain and strong winds.
Shame as it's been largely fine in the UK all week.

I like the Welsh team with Tompkins in the centre, albeit perhaps a slight question mark over their scrum. Can see them going really close if not beating the Irish - who have a somewhat uninspiring line up in my view
Wales +5 @ 1.91
Smaller play Wales win @ 2.70

Scotland will scrap and fight for everything, England's team changes strengthen them slightly but Eddie is rolling the dice a bit in my view, with a 6:2 split on the bench.
Scotland +8 @ 1.91
Smaller play Scotland by 1-10 @ 5

Not confident on too much of Super rugby, looking forward to the Handicap this evening!

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4 years 1 month ago #38 by Shazzadude
Replied by Shazzadude on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
Highlanders v Sharks-At +7.5 the Sharks start to become attractive to me. I know people think pre-season doesn't matter, but the Highlanders had some shocking results in pre-season (lost 40-21 to the Waratahs and 41-7 to the Crusaders). That said, I wasn't very impressed with the Sharks either, they really should have put the Bulls to the sword. Highlanders tries unders may come under consideration for me once Bet365 open markets.

Brumbies-Rebels: I'm expecting a rubbish game here, maybe total points unders or total tries unders is the go.

Chiefs-Crusaders: When was the last time you saw a Crusaders line move three points against them? Something's fishy here, and the Chiefs have a nice looking run on side. There's a strong Tasman contingent from last year's Mitre 10 cup champion side in this Crusaders lineup, but man for man I think the Chiefs match up well.

Tahs-Blues: Smells like unders to me, or tries unders, weather forecast to be horrible in Newcastle. Hard to back the Blues when their goalkicker can be expected to leave 6-10 points on the tee, but the weather conditions may well suit.

Lions-Reds: I grabbed some +7.5 earlier in the week, and I'm kicking myself for not taking more. The Lions stink this year, and I think a fit, young Reds team are going to do well at altitude. They should have beaten the Brumbies last week in what were trying conditions at 40 plus degrees celsius, but will only get better with execution as the season goes on. I think the Reds win straight up.

Stormers-Bulls: Stormers should cover this easily; whether they do is another matter

Jaguares-Hurricanes: Last week I took the Stormers to beat the Canes, this week I like the Canes in a bounce back spot. The Jaguares did smash the Lions, but I think the Lions are just junk this year, and see +5.5 as a nice start for the Canes. Had the Stormers-Canes game last weekend been close, I think this would have been a pick em.

Kiwi living in Australia
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4 years 1 month ago #39 by Kirky
Think I'm against the flow here, but...
This Highlanders outfit looks good to me albeit their first game - they must be raring to go.

Their backline looks deadly from Smith to McKay, and the forwards are a properly capable bunch too. Then they have the bench - ha...
I'm -6.5 @ 1.95 (Sunbet)
over 53.5. @ 1.85 Sportingbet)
Josh Ioane for 1st try @ 17.00 (Sportingbet) Either him or Jonah Nareki's gonna get it, but my fancy is Ioane.

I watched a lot of these boys play Mitre10. They were drooling for SR, and I can't see a slouch anywhere in their lineup.
Looking forward to tonight's show

Good picking guys :woohoo: :beer

Also thinking Brumbies vs Rebels will be a miserable, wet, low scoring game, edged by the Brumbies.

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4 years 1 month ago #40 by Kirky
Aaargh, just seen I've got loadshedding from 08.00 - 10.00 tomorrow.
Just gonna have to run the generator - simple.

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4 years 1 month ago #41 by The Vann
Chaps - I'm not a great rugby punter these days for reasons I have put on the boards before but I do suggest that you guys bet what you see. There is way too much bounce back etc here. The bottom line is the Rebels and the Canes were crap and that is probably what they are this season - don't look for something that is not there.

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4 years 1 month ago #42 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
2 more previews up

Chiefs v Crusaders - the lads are split on this one and I am going for either team by 7 points or less at Sunbet

Don't miss tonights THE HANDICAP live at 9 - The Betting Stig makes his debut and Hanrick and Son of a Punt are in separate corners for this one

Waratahs v Blues - have decided to look no further than Son of a Punts +3.5

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4 years 1 month ago #43 by southpaw
Am in Highlanders camp tomorrow, will have had chance to study Sharks round one game and expecting some real attacking intent with Tony Brown as attack coach.

Been holding out for some points markets but in meantime like the Highlanders/Higlanders ht/ft @ 15/20.

But points lines if low enough will be main interest.

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4 years 1 month ago #44 by southpaw
High v sharks - over 53.5 pts
Onto
Brum v Rebels - under 50.5pts

Double @ 11/5

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4 years 1 month ago #45 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
Not often you see two of the presenters on The Handicap have opposing best bets, makes for an interesting forum.

The line has moved into Crusaders - .5 @ $1.90 tab nz

Someone suggested that the Crusader pack was weak (we suspect a case of beer goggles), so we have taken a layer off the onion of the Crusaders starting pack to play the Chiefs: We reveal 3 All Blacks, 3 NZ U20 All Blacks, 1 Maori All Black and an Irishmen good enough to get into the Crusaders Academy and be in the Crusader squad since 2017, playing behind and training with an all AB front row for the last three years.

1. Joe Moody - AB
2. Codie Taylor -AB
3. Oliver Jager - NZ Barbars
4. Scott Barrett (C) - AB
5. Mitchell Dunshea- AB U20 NZ Barbars
6. Tom Sanders - AB U20, NZ Universities
7. Tom Christie - NZ Schools, Captain AB U20
8. Whetukamokamo Douglas - Maori All Black

With AB props Laulau and Ta'avoa out injured, Chiefs are ripe for the taking up front.

Sader backline is an excitement machine with AB's Ennor, Goodhue, Reece and Bridge all starting..

Solid bet Crusaders -.05 plus a little interest in -6.5 & -8.5 in the alternate start points.

Cheers & Good Luck. 3P

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4 years 1 month ago #46 by R3V3R3NT_
Replied by R3V3R3NT_ on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby

Brent Graham wrote: 2 more previews up

Chiefs v Crusaders - the lads are split on this one and I am going for either team by 7 points or less at Sunbet

Don't miss tonights THE HANDICAP live at 9 - The Betting Stig makes his debut and Hanrick and Son of a Punt are in separate corners for this one

Waratahs v Blues - have decided to look no further than Son of a Punts +3.5


Good stuff guys just caught the replay shame I couldn't make it live. My first week back into it some good tips to ponder!

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4 years 1 month ago #47 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
For those who missed last nights THE HANDICAP and want to catch the podcast Here it is it is also available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts etc

Really enjoyed last nights show and am working the weekly betting mailer as we speak - you can sign up below any of the Super Rugby previews

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4 years 1 month ago #48 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
Toyed with the half time handicap in the Lions v Reds Preview but settled on +6.5 at GGG

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4 years 1 month ago #49 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby wk 2, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
Small play on Landers 1-12 @ 2.75

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4 years 1 month ago #50 by bradie82
Sharks over 34.5 @ 1.88 on 888 -

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