NRL 2020

Another one for me:
Manly Sea Eagles vs Gold Coast Titans.
Titans +6 @2

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canterbury Bulldogs
Main Bet : Rabbitohs Over 30.5 points 1.95
Bet n°2 : Over 0.5 (10 minutes Total Tries)
Bet n°3 : Campbell Gramah ATS 1.95, Damian Cook ATS 2.70

We are two games from the end of the regular season. The Rabbitohs are 6th, I think their aim is to have a home final game on the 1st round (5th vs 8th, 6th vs 7th). They have +127 at the points difference, the Raiders have +103. I think their aim, in a game against the Bulldogs, is to heal their point difference. Why ?

Bulldogs are doomed to the wooden spot. They have been void all season, they are poorly coached, the coach changes positions all week (Luke Thompson isn't a prop MAN), there is no continuity in the lines up. Last week, do you want the stats? Against Manly, 32 points conceded, 38 MISSED tackles. This week, the line up is again at BIG JOKE. For example, Meaney last week had a good game, why is the coach removing it in favor of a player who deserves less player (Smith for example)?

I think the Rabbitohs are going to score 30+ points. They have a very talented backline: Allan, Johnstone, Graham, Masters, Paulo, he's very young with a lot of potential. Last week they won the game vs. West Tigers 24-26 but Wayne Bennett didn't like it. Why ? The Rabbitohs were quickly leading 20-0, but then they fell asleep. As the Finals approach, I think Bennett will want his team to be focused ALL GAME, not just 40 minutes.

Big victory of the Rabbitohs to heal the points difference.

Zambusta wrote: Two early ones for me on Thursday's game:

1st Half First to 15 points Rabbitohs @2,15
1st Half First to 20 points Rabbitohs @3,30

Along with these I have also gone with:
Rabbitohs over 2.5 1st half tries @1.91

Agree with Couch, Thirteen and Zambusta.

Bet 1: Rabbitohs -16.5 @1.91
Bet 2: Rabbitohs over 30.5 points @1.95
Bet 3: Rabbitohs over 5.5 tries @2.05
Bet 4: Rabbitohs 1st Half points Over 12.5 @1.87
Bet 5: Rabbitohs 1st Half tries Over 2.5 @1.95

Cant disagree

Rabbits -14 @ 1.73
Rabbits over 5.5 tries @ 2

I don't think South Sydney knew they had a game on today.


When I looked at the score and saw 20-0...it took me a few seconds to realise that it was actually to the Bulldogs.

Zambusta wrote: I don't think South Sydney knew they had a game on today.


When I looked at the score and saw 20-0...it took me a while to realise that it was actually to the Bulldogs.

Honestly had exactly the same thing Zam. I saw 20-0 and thought surely they had the score the wrong way round. I kept refreshing and checking other sources. Jeez a piss poor start to the "weekend" that was...

Obviously the Bulldogs captain's milestone game was a bigger motivator than home advantage in the finals for the bunnies

I don't have a feel for much in the Panthers game this morning. They resting some middle players and I think they will be fine with just another win. Plus the Cowboys have been unpredictable and can score some tries.

Anytime try scorer Jarome Luai @2.62
Last try scorer Jarome Luai @13

He has scored in each of the last 4 games and always looks hungry for a pie!

Hello Guys. What a shock by Rabbitohs yesterday, maybe Wayne Bennett wants Broncos to go for the wooden spot.

For this morning, i go with :

Eels over 28.5 pts 1.75 Bet365

The opportunity seems fine for the Eels to regain confidence. It's been several weeks that they have struggled to score, and facing the Broncos who play backwards this season, they must take advantage of this match to regain confidence for the Finals. Reed Mahoney is back, he's a very good hooker and miss a lot last week against Panthers. For the Broncos, Payne Haas (actually their best player) and Rhys Kennedy are out for this game, so I think the Eels will have plenty of scoring opportunities. The contexts weren't the same, but Parramatta put the Broncos 92-6 in the last two games.

The Eels must get back on track against a team that shows no vigour and will.
They have the Raiders breathing down their neck, so they must get back to (confident) winning ways.

Bet 1: Eels -20.5 @1.95
Bet 2: Eels team total over 30.5 points @1.90
Bet 3: Eels team total over 5.5 tries @1.99

Lads what an awful beat - (I had total over 42.5)

Henry the f*$ken Octopus has screwed us over big-time!!

The referee killed us the bets. He whistles forward on a pass while there was try ! Instead of letting it play and asking for the bunker afterwards, he whistles away ! No luck on this one, it's part of the game.

mackem wrote: Couch's preview and plays for 19th and 20th September

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/nrl-b...-20th-september.html

@Couch
I like to follow your previews and obviously I appreciate them , however in this one I noticed two mix-ups in the Raiders vs Warriors and Knights vs Dragons, where you wrote about different teams.
You may want to have a look and correct that with what you actually wanted to say about those matches.

Manly Sea Eagles vs Gold Coast Titans

Both teams are out of contention for play-offs. Both teams welcome back key players.
The Eagles are coming from two matches in which they scored more than 30 points, winning the last one, and the Titans are on a 3-match winning streak, having beaten three teams below them on the ladder.

Nothing much at stake other than pride, two key players back, relative good form for both teams, I'm taking overs.

Bet 1: Sea Eagles team total over 24.5 points @1.95
Bet 2: Sea Eagles team total over 4.5 tries @2.01
Bet 3: Titans team total over 18.5 points @2.01

Storm vs Tigers

Bet 1: Storm over 30.5 points @1.99
Bet 2: Storm over 5.5 tries @2.07
Bet 3: Total points over 44.5 @1.87

Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Warriors

The Raiders sitting on 5th are keeping the pressure on the Eels on 4th.
They have been scoring big numbers recently, in 4 of their last 5 having put more than 34 points on the board.

The Warriors lost their last two games and they are now out of the finals. They'll be looking forward to go back to their families after four months in Australia, and with the loan players departing, plus prop Jamayne Taunoa-Brown suspended, they should be good for the taking by the Raiders.

Bet 1: Raiders -16.5 @1.97
Bet 2: Raiders team total Over 28.5 @1.80

Hi guys. Here are the bets I took for the last round before the Finals. We had to be very reactive when leaving the lines up because the Raiders and the Storm put all their big guys to rest.

Game 1 : NZ Warriors vs Manly Sea Eagles
NZ Warriors vs Manly Sea Eagles -> NZ Warriors to win @2.65, Stake 4/5
Last game of the season for the NZ Warriors. The last of a beautiful emotional story where nearly 50 people, staff and players, are compartmentalized in their bubble in Tamworth. Completely cut off from the world, their family and their children, there is only one game left and they will be able to return to New Zealand. Since the resumption of the NRL, it is THE beautiful story of the season. Apart from their loss to the Storm, they have always been in the game, fought in every game, which is something to make their interim coach Todd Payten proud. This match, they want to win it to conclude in the most beautiful way the monstrous efforts made for months. They want to win it because it will be the last game for Todd Payten, who will then join the Cowboys to train them. It will also be the last game for Adam Blair, the 34-year-old will play his last game in the NRL before likely joining the NZ Warriors staff. The Warriors have just lost 24-12 against the Raiders, with two tries conceded following an interception by losing Roger Tuivasa Check to injury. A crazy performance. Opposite, Manly's season is over, they no longer know how to defend. Very surprised to see the Warriors at this rating. I put them at 1.60.

Game 2 : Cronulla Sharks vs Canberra Raiders
Bet : Cronulla Sharks to score more tries @4.50.

Game 3 : St George Dragons vs Melbourne Storm
Bet 1 : Dragons to score more tries @5.70
Bet 2 : Dragons +8.5H 1st Half @1.87
Bet 3 : Dragons over 14.5 points @1.87

Kicking myself for not diving into the Dragons when I see the team news. I checked and saw my one bookie took the match down and never went back or shopped around as I wanted to as yesterday got a bit hectic. Thirteen you got onto some superb bets there which are now long gone.

I also fully agree with regard to the Warriors and are also taking them on the board against a shattered Manly.

Tomorrow I just cant have the Broncos - expecting JT to have a huge game. Also think Roosters should put the Bunnies to bed on Friday.

Yes, we had to be very reactive, the lines have changed a lot. To say that Wednesday night we had Dragons +16.5. Anyway.

I took the Broncos me Couch I expect a big game from them. I actually took the Broncos +11.5 x West Tigers +17.5 @ 1.83 combo.

The Broncos absolutely must win this game to avoid the wooden spot for the first time in their history. Their defense has been improving in recent weeks: a month ago, they have conceded at least 30 points per game, for a few games it has been better when they played the Panthers, the Eels and the Titans, teams in shape right now. I like the changes in the line up: Corey Oates benched, very good, return of Payne Haas who will win metres and Jordan Riki, Kotoni Staggs at 6, that I like a lot because he is their most dangerous player in attack and expect him to do some class action on this game. For the Cowboys, not much to play this weekend, their defense is as horrible as that of the Broncos, Taumalolo's return but the Broncos have more to lose in this game. I expect a close game.

Last outing for Benji Marshall and Michael Lawrence in the West Tigers jersey, they are two icons of the club, expect their friends to give everything on this match to offer them a great outing. Even though I understand that it is difficult to trust this team, especially their defense at the moment, I think the emotions of this match will strengthen their collective. There's a lot of change and comebacks: Brooks (suspension), Michael Chee-Kam, Blore, Talau, Twal and Taylor. This means that Aloiai (injured), McIntyre (HIA), and Packer, Liddle, Leilua, Reynolds are out of the 17. I'm still not impressed with the Eels, without a great Gutherson last week I'm not sure the score is the same, I really have trouble locating this team at the moment. I think the Eels are going to win, but not by a big margin.

The Broncos looked at times, for some periods of time during some of their recent matches, as if they were on the brink of getting a result. Maybe they get consistent here and do get that result, it's about time they did.
I'm taking points too, as both defences are like melted butter, the only ones to have more than 500 points conceded, and in a derby like this, where the Cowboys would love nothing less than giving the Broncos the wooden spoon, and the Broncos trying to make a statement against it, I expect they'd throw everything they have at each other, which should result in points on the board for us.

Bet 1: Broncos +2.5 @1.75
Bet 2: Total points over 44.5 @1.95
Bet 3: Broncos Team Total Tries over 3.5 @1.80
Bet 4: Total tries over 7.5 @1.72

Manage to snag some early value this week, with the murmurings about Panthers and Storm resting players
Double of:
Bulldogs +18 & Dragons +18 @ 3.64
Though not sure the dogs can be trusted - that will likely be an uncomfortable watch.....

My preference for the Cowboys this morning, smalls on:
Cowboys 1-12 @ 3.10
Both teams to score 20+ points & Cowboys win @ 5.50

The Titans playing at home, I give them some tries, otherwise I'm with the Knights to show who's in the play-offs and who's not. Otherwise why would they field a strong line-up?

Bet 1: Knights -4.5 @1.91
Bet 2: Team Total Knights over 4.5 tries @2.15
Bet 3: Team Total Titans over 3.5 tries @2.08

Wild weather in Sydney, so I'm not taking the Roosters handicap.

Bet 1: Newcastle Knights (see above) + Sydney Roosters @1.90
Bet 2: Total points under 42.5 @1.90
Bet 3: Total tries under 7.5 @1.83

Storm are leading 16-12 at half time, but they play with reserves and players who don't see much playing time. I hope and expect the Dragons to at least stay close, if not win this.

Dragons +5.5 @1.91

Hello guys. Early bets for me for this Week 1 of Finals, i don't see surprise in the line-up because Storm or Raiders players are fresh because rested last week.

Over 42.5 pts Raiders / Sharks 1.91 Bet365

The Raiders are in great shape at the end of the season. Since Round 8, they have won all of their matches by consistently scoring 30pts +. They only lost to the Storm, the Panthers and the Roosters, teams ranked ahead of them. They arrive fresh, because coach Ricky Stuart put a lot of men to rest last weekend.

The Sharks are for me the worst Top 8 team. They have never won against a Top 8 team this season. Why ? Their defense is very bad. It is the worst defense of these teams which are in the Finals. They scored 480 pts and cashed 480 pts, it's easy for the average, it's about 24 pts cashed per match. In the Finals, it is defense that wins matches and titles, the Sharks start with a disadvantage in this sector.

These two teams clashed Last Saturday, the Raiders put all starters to rest, a 38-22 win while the Sharks had only 4 players to rest, including Talakai, Dugan and Rudolf. Proof that this Sharks team is bad in defense, 38 pts conceded against the A' team of the Raiders.

However, their attack is good. They are among the best in line breaks, tackle breaks and offloads which have led to lots of points. Their talisman Shaun '' Magic '' Johnson got injured against the Roosters and will miss this game, Wade Graham is expected to be teamed with Chad Townsend at 6 / 7th position.

I'm expecting a fast-pace game and with points the weather forecast is good in Canberra and the crowd will be back (at 50% of the stadium capacity)

Storm x Rabbitohs 1.66 Bet365 (take this Sunday)

Storm vs Eels

The Storms are regulars at the Finals, they know how to win these games, have a lot of very experienced players at this level of the competition, with leaders like both Cameron, Smith and Munster, plus the Bromwich brothers. They are fresh because Coach Bellamy has decided to do a lot of rotations against the Dragons. Their left-edge in attack is very efficient with Munster / Olam / Ado-Carr, these last two players have registered a lot of tries in the last matches. The Storm arrived confidently in this match and sure of their strength.

The Eels have been drafted for several weeks. They were the leader of the competition during the competition, but something has gone wrong with their game for several weeks. Their defense is not as good as at the start of the season, for example they have just conceded 24 pts against the West Tigers in a match they could have lost. I'm afraid Mitchell Moses (54 missed tackles this season) and Waqa Blake (59 missed tackles) have problems against Munster, Olam and Ado-Carr. Their attack has been in trouble for several matches. Sometimes they can play really good football, but they just can't seem to be consistent for 80 minutes. I see very little chance for them to win against the Storm.

Rabbitohs vs Knights

The Rabbitohs regained their confidence in this last game, winning 60-8 against the Roosters (well I suspect the Roosters have left this game to not play the Storm first in Queensland). However, they put things right after their ugly loss to the Bulldogs. Cody Walker was masterful in attack, if he plays like that against the Knights, Kalyn Ponga's teammates have no chance.

The defense of the Knights is problematic. Over the last 5 games, they have conceded 36 pts against the Titans and the NZ Warriors, two teams that are not in the Finals, and 42 against the Roosters. Mitchell Pearce is often targeted by opposing attacks, having missed 77 tackles this season (the highest total in NRL). In attack, Kalyn Ponga is far too alone, he is targeted by teams which put a lot of pressure on him. To win this game, the Knights need to have a big defense and a masterful Ponga, which I don't think will happen.

On similar lines, just cannot see either Sharks or Knights defence cutting the mustard
Double: Raiders -8 × Rabbits -4 @ 2.61

Can see a Panthers win today, but by the same token Chooks bouncing back wouldnt surprise, given their pedigree. (Though not seen anything like last week's game for some years, perhaps ever, it was ridiculous!)
Smaller acca: Panthers x Raiders x Storm x Rabbits @ 3.99

Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters

The first match of the play-offs, played at the Panthers stadium with spectators.

The Panthers lost only one game in the regular season and they were the most constant team of them all. They finished top of the ladder with the tightest defence.

The Roosters are the defending champions. They finished 4th on the ladder and their defence ranks 5th.

I'm taking the Panthers to win this, because they've been constant throughout. The Roosters have had ups and downs, they lost 6 games after all.

Because it's a big play-off match, I'll take the unders as well.

Bet 1: Panthers @1.68 bet365
Bet 2: Under 36.5 points @1.90 sportsbet.com.au

Good luck Guys for your bets in Panthers / Roosters. For me it's a coin flip. I take a drop goal at 6 because it's Finals.

Because tonight's match has a higher degree of risk, I took the other three favourites to win

Raiders + Storm + Bunnies @1.88, bet365.

A triple for today.

West Coast Eagles + Canberra Raiders + Melbourne Storm @2.14, bet365

West Coast Eagles should win their play-off encounter in Australian Rules Football tonight vs Collingwood at their own stadium. They won all their games there this season, against this opposition too.

Raiders and Storm should beat their opposition just by mentioning their names.

Both games so far has seen the halves taking the initiative. will continue with that into next game.

Jahrome Hughes anytime try scorer @3
Cameron Munster anytime try scorer @3

All of the finals games last week were high scoring. I think the trend will continue.
I also think the Eels luck is about to run out. Their starting wings are out and not getting so much of the rub of the green with refs.
Plus bunnies do not look like they are playing around

Roosters vs Raiders
Over 42,5 @1.91
Both teams to score 16 points or more @2.1

Eels vs Rabbitohs
Rabbitohs win and over 44,5 @2.65
Rabbitoh -6,5@2

Double on Roosters and Rabbitohs to win @2.17

mackem wrote: Couch's preview and plays for the play offs on 9th and 10th October

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/nrl-s...th-10th-october.html

Just a note here, the preview for Roosters vs Raiders is actually the Panthers vs Roosters instead.

Quill wrote:

mackem wrote: Couch's preview and plays for the play offs on 9th and 10th October

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/nrl-s...th-10th-october.html

Just a note here, the preview for Roosters vs Raiders is actually the Panthers vs Roosters instead.

Thanks for the heads up quill!
Any thoughts on the game? (And afl of course)

Thanks!

Roosters vs Raiders

No matter how I look at it, it looks like a tight match. Not sure about the overs.
I give the Roosters the edge only because they play in Sydney and I think they showed a bit more oomph against a top team, compared to the Raiders.

Bet 1: Either team by 8 or less @2.25, sportsbet.com.au
Bet 2: Roosters win and Over 35.5 alternative points @1.95, sportsbet.com.au
Bet 3: Roosters -4.5 @1.74, bet365

Following Zambusta with his double Roosters + Rabbitohs @2.10

Also think this will be a tight one. Agreed Roosters should edge it, but a Raiders win wouldn't surprise.

Main bet Raiders +6.5 @ 1.91

Smalls Raiders 1-12 @ 4.25

Beers Papalii anytime @ 8

Double:
Richmond (preview in Australian Rules Football - Football Section) + Roosters @1.80

Wow what a great game! Great finals footie!!!

Raiders scored points as expected but roosters just couldn't catch them...albeit I definitely thought there was a clear head high tackle to stop Morris scoring in the second half, not sure why that wasn't called.

Great calls @brad breath

Zambusta wrote: Wow what a great game! Great finals footie!!!

Raiders scored points as expected but roosters just couldn't catch them...albeit I definitely thought there was a clear head high tackle to stop Morris scoring in the second half, not sure why that wasn't called.

Great calls @brad breath

They are outrageous with their bunker calls. Makes me not want to watch the game anymore. It was clear as daylight that head high tackle, red card no questions asked in Union.
And all the calls sent to the bunker, it's more for the KFC (chickens = Roosters and Roosters are sponsored by Steggles, a chicken products company) advert than for making the right call.
Disappointing from that point of view.

Agree with you mate, if you are talking about CNK vs Morris "try-saving" tackle... Should hv been at least a yellow card and 10 in the bin... Tedesco was unlucky, Keary was offside at a very important part of the game. Anyway it was a good game to watch. Lets go Rabbiths

Agreed lads, crazy it wasn't a penalty as a bare minimum. Great game otherwise.

Key for me now is not give most of profits back on union, which happened last week.

Fancy the bunnies tomorrow, particularly with Ferguson now confirmed out.

Taken Rabbits -5.5 & over 42.5 total points @ 2.75

Hi lads.

Sorry about the technical glitch that krept in with the old preview showing and not the new one. The bets were however still correct - yet very wrong!! Did not see that performance coming. Well done to those that made some loot.

Tomorrow I'm big on the Bunnies in all sorts of ways. Come on the Souths!!!!

Rabbitohs -10 @1.91
Rabbitohs over 26.5 team total @1.85