Super Rugby Aotearoa Week 6, Australia Week 3
- Brent Graham
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Here are my handicap projections
Red -12.5 v Force
Hur +1.5 v Blu
War +3.5 v Bru
Chi -8.5 v Hig
Let's unite against the bookies lads!
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Red -12.5 v Force -13.5
Hur +1.5 v Blu +0.5
War +3.5 v Bru - waiting but betting 15/10 5/10
Chi -8.5 v Hig -7.5
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Red -12.5 v Force -15.5
Hur +1.5 v Blu +1.5
War +3.5 v Bru +8.5
Chi -8.5 v Hig -6.5
I was def out on the Brumbies game but is 8.5 correct?
Any early value? I would have taken the Reds at -12.5 but 15.5 is big
Based on chats with various punters I expect the Blues to start -3.5 or so
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- son_of_a_punt
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We have taken a BIG strike on the Brumbies -8.5. We saw that SunBet have it @ 1.90 , otherwise most other bookies are around 1.85.
The last 5 games that Brumbies have won have been by a margin of 8, 33, 33, 12 and 13.
The last 5 games that Waratahs have lost have been by a margin of 6, 33, 37, 14 and 20.
The last time these two teams faced each other was on the 15th of March this year when the Brumbies won 47-14 at home. This weekend Waratahs will have the home ground advantage at the ANZ Stadium, however, we still think it is going to be one way traffic for the Brumbies.
The Brumbies forwards were certainly a bit rusty in their opening game against the Rebels, but we have no doubt that they are going to bounce back strong against the Waratahs and dominate at scrum time and in the line outs. They undoubtedly have the best pack in the competition and we can see the Brumbies thundering over for plenty of tries.
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- RuggaBugga
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The Tahs were so clueless against the Force and that pack will be severely exposed. Was waiting for GG to open the caps yesterday but sadly they didn't - would have called Oracle's granny if it was under a converted try - but the 8.5 is a cracker!
The manner in which the Brumbies destroyed the Tahs in March is serious motivation for this punt and the Tahs are FAR worse off since then ...
Nice one SOAPS
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Brumbies -8.5 we go!
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- landrews77
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I agree with Brumbies -8,5.Let's clean the bookies.
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- RuggaBugga
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Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Big bounce back from the Chiefs in Hamilton this week and Landers missing Dillon Hunt. Landers had couple of tough games and I expect this to be one bridge too far.
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- Brad Breath
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ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Chiefs X Brumbies double at 1/1.
Big bounce back from the Chiefs in Hamilton this week and Landers missing Dillon Hunt. Landers had couple of tough games and I expect this to be one bridge too far.
Hunt is expected to be fit, so too Josh Ioane who may replace Hunt at 10.
That said, I agree and think the Chiefs win
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- Zambusta
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Hurricanes have gone from being the team expected to finish bottom to now putting in some solid performances.
Super Rugby Aotearoa has been a real mixed bag, which is great from a sporting perspective but not so much from a punting one.
Lastly.
How cavernous is the difference between SR NZ and SR AU???
Australian rugby has got some real problems on their hands.
Best of luck to all for the weekend ahead!
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- threepeat
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Blues' side to face the Hurricanes in Wellington:
Beauden Barrett, Mark Telea, Rieko Ioane, Harry Plummer, Emoni Narawa, Otere Black, Finlay Christie, Akira Ioane, Dalton Papalii, Aaron Carroll, Josh Goodhue, Patrick Tuipulotu (c), Ofa Tuungafasi, Kurt Eklund, Alex Hodgman.
Reserves: Luteru Tolai, Marcel Renata, Sione Mafileo, Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, Tony Lamborn, Jonathan Ruru, TJ Faiane, Dan Carter repaced by Matt Duffie.
Medium bet on Canes +.5 @ $1.92 Keeping some powder dry for probable Unders bet.
No Sotutu, No Clarke, No Tu'inukuale
Crusaders have provided road map for defeating Blues.
Continuing error of playing Beaudie out of position
Jordie is a better fullback than Beauden!
Home crowd, home field advantage.
Canes getting better by the week lead by Savea & Barrett.
Laumape running at Plummer probably worth an anytime try @ $3.75 Cheers 3P
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- Brazil
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threepeat wrote: Cashed out early (insurance) bet on Blues to win SR Aotearoa at almost 100%
Blues' side to face the Hurricanes in Wellington:
Beauden Barrett, Mark Telea, Rieko Ioane, Harry Plummer, Emoni Narawa, Otere Black, Finlay Christie, Akira Ioane, Dalton Papalii, Aaron Carroll, Josh Goodhue, Patrick Tuipulotu (c), Ofa Tuungafasi, Kurt Eklund, Alex Hodgman.
Reserves: Luteru Tolai, Marcel Renata, Sione Mafileo, Gerard Cowley-Tuioti, Tony Lamborn, Jonathan Ruru, TJ Faiane, Dan Carter repaced by Matt Duffie.
Medium bet on Canes +.5 @ $1.92 Keeping some powder dry for probable Unders bet.
No Sotutu, No Clarke, No Tu'inukuale
Crusaders have provided road map for defeating Blues.
Continuing error of playing Beaudie out of position
Jordie is a better fullback than Beauden!
Home crowd, home field advantage.
Canes getting better by the week lead by Savea & Barrett.
Laumape running at Plummer probably worth an anytime try @ $3.75 Cheers 3P
Yep ...a knockout game for both teams.If Canes pull off two wins now they might sneak to win the cup.Must win for Blues with only 3 games left after this and no bonus points yet.
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- landrews77
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The men from Wellington bossed proceedings for large parts in last week encounter and with a wealth of possession,indicate they are up to the task this weekend.Savea and Kirifi cause problems around the ruck and the Canes possess players with X-factor.-they know when to pounce.
My bet : Canes win.
Canes -4,5 on the Handicap
Coles anytime tryscorer
Van Wyk first tryscorer,
Ben Lam anytime tryscorer
Total scoreline Over 55,5
Good luck.
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- landrews77
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Reds vs Force
Reds -8,5
Total points/scoreline =Under 52,5points
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- landrews77
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Canes Win/Chiefs Win/Brumbies Win/Reds Win.
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- mackem
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- threepeat
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Reds have averaged 25 point per game so far in SR Gold. Force have a one game average of 14. Leaves room for standard deviation of over two converted trys. Add Thorney's forward oriented game plan, strong team culture at Force, as indicated by Richard Kahui and Twiggy Forrest interviews this week, bet looks "sweet as". Cheers 3P
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- Brent Graham
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Joined by Couch, Conductor and Oracle with best bets from SOAP
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Here is the Podcast version
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- bradie82
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Under 3.5 penalties @ 1.70
First scoring play : try Reds @ 2.10
And the usual
Highest scoring half first half @ 2.10
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- Brad Breath
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- southpaw
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Small interest 1st try McReight 25/1
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Battling on this one and pulling a bet usually reserved for our man Couch
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- Bookie Basher
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WSB out with 48.5 point line BGBrent Graham wrote: Hurricanes v Blues Betting Preview
I gave up waiting for points lines, Canes to win
Canes total points 24.5
Blues total points 24.5
Canes 1st half points 12.5
Blues 1st half points 12.5
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- southpaw
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Brumbies over 13.5 1st half points @ 15/20
Small interest 1st try Samu 22/1
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- Brent Graham
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Waratahs playing out of their skin here - will do a quick betting update at halftime on You Tube and Twitter
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- Brent Graham
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The final preview of the week and settled on Chiefs -5.5 at Hollies
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- southpaw
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Weather looks perfect for some decent attacking action.
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- Northerner
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- southpaw
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southpaw wrote: Been a great weekend on the rugby and hoping for a line around 47/48 Points in tomorrow’s game to fire into. Not seen anything yet but not shopped around.
Weather looks perfect for some decent attacking action.
Over 48.5 @ 15/20 Sunbet
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- Brad Breath
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Chiefs by 11-20 @ 4.30
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- threepeat
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Having a great punting weekend so far. Congrats to like minded punters, particularly BG on the GFTG Super Rugby column who stepped off the Blues Train in Wellington and punted on the Canes. What a fantastic game, with lead changing five times and no chance to hedge your bet "in play" No Hoskins Sotutu was a definite factor. Also, Beauden Barrett got well and truly exposed at fullback. Laumape a nice $ @ 3.75 in the TAB NZ "Try Time" Bonus competition. What a try! AB re-call for that effort alone!
Condolences to the many on the Barcelona lads early call Brumbies -8.5. Unlucky, betting result would have been different if no loss of Slipper at minute 14 and big loss of Playmaker Lolesio at minute 33.
In todays game I am being cautious as my Canes margin Bets in SRA have gone astray when picking them to beat the spread. Firstly in Dunedin and again in Hamilton, when Jordie Barrett returned from injury and played a blinder.
Relying more on statistics than usual for this bet, Chiefs are 1-4 ats last 5 and are 7-17 ats in last 24 @home. Highlanders are winners 3 of 4 ats in SRA.
Landers were well beaten in Wellywood but only lost by 6. Both teams have considerable injuries making punting difficult. However Landers' AB Try Scorers Frizzell and Smith both in good form. Two more AB's on the bench with Ioane and Coltman. Cheers 3P
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- Brent Graham
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Next weeks handicaps up shortly
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- Brad Breath
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Brad Breath wrote: Chiefs -5 @ 1.91
Chiefs by 11-20 @ 4.30
Thought both of these were winners at 74 mins!
Well played Landers backers
Outstanding comeback from the Landers but some of the Chiefs defence just woeful.
Think Sam Cane looking very average - as both player and captain.
Concerning for the ABs.
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