Cycling : w/c 10 Aug Criterium du Dauphine, Il Lombardia etc

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3 years 7 months ago #1 by The Vann
Welcome to the TdF official warm-up race and over the weekend the second monument of the year.
Criterium du Dauphine
A five day stage race with enough climbs to set the legs for the TdF. In my opinion the field this year probably contains the full TdF top 10.
On the Outrights
Probably Roglic but the odds are too short so am taking two shots at the podium
Finish 1-3
A Yates @ 7/1
Soler @ 40/1
Stage 1
Once again going for the longer place odds
Valverde @ 7/1
Gallopin @ 33/1
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3 years 7 months ago #2 by Couch Critic
Great that Dauph & Lombardia will be televised. I had a nibble on WvA in MSR but will be focussing on cycling more from this week on!

Loving the look of the Dauph with climbs all the way through the week. Puncheurs only really have Stage 1 to have a proper crack at, after that the big boys will come out to play. That being said the GC guys saw what happened when Ala was given a bit too much rope in the TdF last year so the little Frenchie could find it tough being afforded any space from Jumbo or Ineos.

I will sleep on a couple of possible plays for now and share my picks tomorrow.

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3 years 7 months ago #3 by Couch Critic
Pretty similar parcours for both the Pemonte and Dauph Stage 1 today with a series of little lumps as we near the finish. One would think this means either break or puncheurs getting the job done. That being said the GC lads in Dauph are in such good form that no one would put it past a Roglic storming to the win straight out the gate! Anyway here are my plays.

Dauph 1: (Just too short at the top end so will back a break or late attack - like the Gallopin play Vann and expecting a TdG from Chris as well).
Mohoric @ 50/1
Benoot @ 50/1
Gorka Izagirre @ 80/1

Piemonte:
Aranburu @ 7/1 (looks in superb form and the route should suit him perfectly)
Ciccone @ 20/1 (to have a late attempt at sneaking away)

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3 years 7 months ago #4 by The Vann
Was not going to take anything on Piemonte but had some spare time this morning counting my footie losses so am taking
e/w
I Izagirre @ 22/1

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3 years 7 months ago #5 by Brent Graham
Hi guys, wasn't able to get too involved but fancy the fav double ALA onto MVDP at 15/1 and took a nibble

May look for a match bet in running and really looking forward to the Dauphine - it certainly is a beast of a route

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3 years 7 months ago #6 by Brent Graham
A match bet treble for me today at just shy of 17/10 at WSB - 1.5u at 1.69/1

Guillaume Martin / Warren Barguil (Home)7/20
Richie Porte / Rigoberto Uran (Home)5/10
Tom Dumoulin / Geraint Thomas (Home)1/3

And to win - Pogacar to attack with a km to go and Ineos and Jumbo to hesitate as to who chases him, he is not seen again - 0.5u at 7/1

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3 years 7 months ago #7 by The Vann
Dauphine Stage 2
Fancy the longer odds on two of the match bets today
Masnada / Rolland @ 14/10
D Martin / Higuita @ 2/1
Looked impressive yesterday and short stage does not favor a break so going stage win
Bernal @ 5/1

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3 years 7 months ago #8 by Couch Critic
Everyone will rave about Roglic but jeez how good was Kuss?! The wasps looking superb atm.

Dauph Stage3: Surely Jumbo take a day off and with the flat start before the 2 climbs the break candidate needs to have the pace/power on the flats to make it to the hills.
- Benoot @ 40/1
- Bilboa @ 40/1
- Polanc @ 150/1
- Jungles @ 200/1
- Cosnefroy @ 200/1 (ew)

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3 years 7 months ago #9 by Brent Graham
Kuss was excellent and clearly has faith in his leader - Roglic looks sublime though

I think this stage could go either way but also make the break fav and 2 of your pics namely Benoot and Polanc going into my staking plan (just hope Polanc isn't on baby sitting duty for Pogacar)

Final picks to follow

PS Was good to land yesterdays treble although Tom D had me worried for a while

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3 years 7 months ago #10 by The Vann
Quality treble Brent. Higuita and Martin took my H2H seriously and crashed into each other with Martin taking 5 minutes longer to get up. What are the odds on that?
I do not hold out much hope for a break today as there is no real springboard for them in the first 80 odd km's but need a few beers for the watch
Dauphine Stage 3
Benoot @ 40/1
Soler @ 100/1
and a match bet double
Rolland / Pozzivivo into
Uran / Valverde @ 4/1

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3 years 7 months ago #11 by Brent Graham
Battling to get my Sunbet password reset so had to bet elsewhere and missed some of the early prices

0.25 units on

Beenoot now 20/1
Pogacar 22/1 (if it comes together he may get some leash)
Lutsenko 33/1
Polanc 100/1

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3 years 7 months ago #12 by Brent Graham
Taken 1 unit on this double at 7/2

Egan Bernal / Tadej Pogacar (Away)2/1
Enric Mas Nicolau / Adam Yates (Home)6/10

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3 years 7 months ago - 3 years 7 months ago #13 by The Vann
Having watched three stages of the TdF warm-up I have taken a full size outright based on the following.
I think Roglic looks top dog and anyone who beats him wins the TdF. Roglic won the Vuelta in 2019 but he clung on desperately at the end and was unable to stay with his main rivals on the penultimate stage. His 2017 and 2018 TdF efforts played out on exactly the same lines. His strength is the ITT but the TdF ITT's are on the second last stage. In 2017 over 23km flat he finished 14th and shed almost 50sec to Froome. In 2018 over 31km of flat he finished 8th and shed 70 plus sec to Froome losing his podium place - Froome did not win either of the ITT's. The 20th stage ITT this year is over 36km but around 10km are up hill. I don't think he gets any time from his main rivals on this stage. In my opinion the rider who looks most capable of challenging and beating Roglic at the TdF is
Win Pinot @ 15/2
Last edit: 3 years 7 months ago by The Vann.
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3 years 7 months ago #14 by The Vann

Brent Graham wrote: Taken 1 unit on this double at 7/2

Egan Bernal / Tadej Pogacar (Away)2/1
Enric Mas Nicolau / Adam Yates (Home)6/10


Two doubles at 7/2 and 4/1 landed on the boards today - Verrrie Naaaice :beer
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3 years 7 months ago #15 by Couch Critic
Nice work on the matches lads.

No messing around for me any more I'm going big on Lombardia tomorrow. Everyone and he's dog is in love with Remco atm but tomorrow his bubble goes pop. Trek and Astan will give the youngster a working over and I'm putting all my eggs in one basket early. Big bet in cycling terms for me on Jakob!
Fuglsang @ 6/1

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3 years 7 months ago #16 by kt6747
Thanks Couch, followed you with that and taken 2 outsiders

Tao Geoghegan Hart @ 66/1
Navarro @ 200/1

Both can climb and descend, hoping surprise

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3 years 7 months ago #17 by Brent Graham
Dauphine:
If Roglic doesn't win today then this one is really wide open - small win interests

0.25u Pogacar @33/1 - hasn't looked at his best but getting stronger and if there at the end can slip away for the win

0.25u Froome 100/1 - would have to be from the break and only if he has been bluffing a bit

0.25u Tom D 200/1 - will prob work for Rog but Jumbo so strong he may get to follow an attack and win from there - he shoould only be 190/1

0.25u Valverde 33/1 - has not looked good but may just be targeting a stage

1.5u double at just shy of 1/1

Pogacar/Bardet
Buchmann/Martin

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3 years 7 months ago #18 by The Vann
Dauphine Stage 4
Might look at the break in play but first up
de Gendt @ 33/1
Polanc @ 150/1
and sadly one of us has to lose our double today
Yates / Valverde into
Martin / Buchmann @ just under 7/2

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3 years 7 months ago #19 by The Vann
IL Lombardia
Spending more on the Dauphine as I have seen the riders there. Beers for the falling leaves
Bennett @ 9/1
Schachmann @ 33/1
Hermans @ 100/1

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3 years 7 months ago #20 by Brent Graham
Il Lombardia - this is going to be a classic

They are all trying to beat young Remco and if they let him get away they wont see him again. I think this race will be ridden hard from a long way out and I am looking to beat the fav

0.25u on

Sosa 22/1
Ciccone 33/1
Schachmann 28/1
Aru 100/1
Bettiol 100/1

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3 years 7 months ago #21 by Brent Graham
Bernal not starting so good chance Sky make the break - Froome shortens to 80/1 LOL

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3 years 7 months ago #22 by kt6747

Couch Critic wrote: Nice work on the matches lads.

No messing around for me any more I'm going big on Lombardia tomorrow. Everyone and he's dog is in love with Remco atm but tomorrow his bubble goes pop. Trek and Astan will give the youngster a working over and I'm putting all my eggs in one basket early. Big bet in cycling terms for me on Jakob!
Fuglsang @ 6/1


Couch you Biscuit. Great call

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3 years 7 months ago #23 by southpaw
Well done couch yesterday.

Didn’t get to watch any sport yesterday but got some time today, will make a rare venture into cycling -

Caruso 28/1
Barguil 40/1
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3 years 7 months ago #24 by The Vann
Excellent Fuglsang pick Couch. Had hopes for Bennett but Astana double-teamed him brilliantly over the last 15km. Been very impressed with the young Russian this year.
Dauphine Stage 5
Disappointed by Yates in the double yesterday but he apparently has the runs.
e/w
Thomas @ 33/1
Grossschartner @ 250/1
Win only
Caruso @ 20/1
Latour @ 33/1
Higuita @ 33/1

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3 years 7 months ago #25 by The Vann
Dauphine Stage 5
Had difficulty with the match bets today but have finally settled on the following double
Lopez / Sivakov into
Haig / Elissonde @ 4/1

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3 years 7 months ago #26 by Brent Graham
Roglic out and the stage is going to be chaos with many potential winners but the 2 strongest teams with no motivation to control the break

0.25u on

Froome 66/1
Polanc 150/1
Van Aert 66/1

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3 years 7 months ago #27 by Brent Graham
0.25u Rolland at 40/1

0.125u Yankee

LaTour 15/10/Yates
Lopez/14/10/ Sivakov
Rolland 7/4/Bardet
Landa 2/1//Pinot

Acca works out just under 50/1

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3 years 7 months ago #28 by The Vann
Roglic has been pulled so throwing in
Win
Kuss @ 12/1

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3 years 7 months ago #29 by Brent Graham
Main bet a unit on the double

Landa/Pinot
Pog/Martin

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3 years 7 months ago #30 by Brent Graham
Landa is gone as are most of my bets

In running

0.5u Pog at 8/1

2.5u Pog/Martin at 7/10

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3 years 7 months ago #31 by Brent Graham

The Vann wrote: Roglic has been pulled so throwing in
Win
Kuss @ 12/1


Great call The Vann

What a stage

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3 years 7 months ago #32 by The Vann
Thanks Brent. Went someway to covering a crap weekend.
Have seen a lot of inexplicable lapses in sport in my life but today's sight of Froome and Thomas in the gruppetto leaves me kinda speechless.
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