Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #1 by Brent Graham

Tour de France 2020 - here at last was created by Brent Graham

The TDF gets going at last on 29 August and having looked through the route last night we are in for one hell of a race.

Not much for the pure sprinters and plenty of dangerous looking ambush stages.

Jumbo have shown their dominance but on paper Ineos look to be vey strong as well. This won't be an easy race for 1 team to control and for the sake of entertaining racing lets hope that neither Ineos or Jumbo is dominant over the other as we want them attacking each other or marking each other allowing others to attack.

We will have full coverage on GFTG including daily previews on the site as well as on You Tube

There will of course be this thread where all bets will be placed and all contributions will be welcome - Create your forum account here

I will also be sending out some TDF newsletters with my thoughts on the race - sign up here bit.ly/TDFmailer

Things don't look promising for our regular Fantasy Game on UDT - if anyone has an alternative they would like to suggest please do

A word of caution is that the TDF can be unpredictable at the best of times with big bets lost due to accidents or mechanicals but this year there is also the Covid complication with a ruling that if 2 riders test positive the whole team gets pulled (ridiculous if you ask me) so bear that in mind

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goosoi
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3 years 7 months ago #2 by goosoi

Replied by goosoi on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Such a treat! Can’t wait

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mackem
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3 years 7 months ago #3 by mackem

Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Here's an outright preview from Couch Critic with GC, top 3 and KoM picks

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...betting-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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The Vann
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3 years 7 months ago #4 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

All right chaps. I'm with everyone else in town. Given the present circumstances outright bets are just not the way to go. So I have reduced my normal 5-8 to just two bets

Win
Pinot @ 15/2

and a match bet double
Uran/Mollema into
Porte/Mas
@ 34/10

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #5 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Busy working on my bets - I also like Porte over Mas

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mackem
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3 years 7 months ago #6 by mackem

Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Like many of the teams I'm hunting stage wins rather than outrights but have had a small bet on Tiesj Bennot for KoM at 66/1, just a hunch, maybe Sunweb would fancy that jersey

twitter: @goodforthegame

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The Vann
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3 years 7 months ago #7 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Rightio fellows - We are taking only two outrights but we can throw a few beers at the outright markets just for entertainment.
A match bet double
Colbrelli/Nizzolo in points
Benoot/Hermans in mountains
@ 9/2
To win a stage Yes de Marchi @ 5/1
Leading Team EF Pro Cycling @ 25/4
Podium Martinez @ 9/1
Top 10 Finish
Poels @ 17/1
Rolland @ 22/1
King of the Mountains - going with the forum
Kamna @ 33/1
Benoot @ 66/1
Points Jersey
Colbrelli @ 18/1
All for entertainment at two beers and tip at the local pub.

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kt6747
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3 years 7 months ago #8 by kt6747

Replied by kt6747 on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

A couple of for me, Top 10

David Gaudu @ 13/2
Ikur Zakarin @ 8/1

Both have shown they can climb and I think that last ITT I think Zakarin might take sometime from other contenders, if he doesn't go for the KOM as Couch pointed out.

I have also taken some of Zakarin to Podium @ 8/1 for KOM.

Can't wait for the start tomorrow

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #9 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Like many punters not getting carried away with long terms at this stage but here is a video with my selections

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #10 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Stage 1 Preview - will summarise bets in forum later and possibly add some more

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mackem
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3 years 7 months ago #11 by mackem

Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Caleb Ewan straight win for me, only interest in Stage 1, enjoy ..!!

twitter: @goodforthegame

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #12 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Long Terms so far

1 unit Pogacar win at 14/1 @Sunbet
1 unit Lopez win at 33/1 @Sunbet
2.5 units Porte/Mas at 1/1 @WSB

Team Classification – 2.5u UAE/Bahrain onto EF Pro/BORA at 6/4 @Sunbet
0.25u Trentin Green 66/1 WSB
1u Trentin Green Podium 11/1 @Sunbet

Added 1.5u match bet treble at WSB - 28/10

Fabio Aru / Pierre Latour (Home)6/10
Pavel Sivakov / Sepp Kuss (Home)6/10
Richard Carapaz / Tom Dumoulin (Away)5/10

Guys I am setting up a Whatsapp group for the TDF - mainly for in-running thoughts and perhaps stage wraps

Message me on 0768470205 if you are keen to be added

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goosoi
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3 years 7 months ago - 3 years 7 months ago #13 by goosoi

Replied by goosoi on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Ewan for me tonight, straight up!

Last edit: 3 years 7 months ago by goosoi.

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The Vann
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3 years 7 months ago #14 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

I like that Trentin outright podium pick Brent so will be joining you there.
Stage 1
Win
Nizzolo @ 7/1
never know - someone may sneak off the front
Kragh Andersen @ 184/1

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #15 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Took a unit Bennett/Ewan at 1/1 and 0.25u Coquard to win the sprint from peleton at intermediate at 13/2 - Sunbet

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #16 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Stage 2 Preview up on You Tube

Will post summary of bets and perhaps add a match bet later

Posting any running bets if any on the whatsapp group

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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mackem
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3 years 7 months ago #17 by mackem

Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Stage 2 I placed small bets on Oliver Naesen (150/1), Hermans (80/1) and Benoot (50/1) last night, I think AG2R showed their intentions with a man off the front in the later part of Stage 1 and stage wins their game, hope Naesen is their man. Hermanns would be a runner if OK imo, Benoot I'm more interested in any possible KoM aspirations but also in the play if in good shape.

I want a GC guy having watched Brent's video and the possible scenario's for how this will be ridden. I thought Formolo looked very relaxed at times yesterday so throwing him in at 28/1.

twitter: @goodforthegame

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #18 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

STAGE 2 Tour De France Bets (so far)

Stage Winner
0.5u Pogacar at 33/1 WSB
0.5u Trentin at 50/1 Sunbet
0.5u Benoot at 50/1 Sunbet
0.25u Naeson 150/1 win 40/1 podium at Sunbet

0.5u Trentin/Sagan x Benoot/Latour at 3/1 Sunbet

Betting summary after Stage 1 – through Coil I am also laying riders during the Tour – will mention on whatsapp group and will track. Yesterday we layed 5/2 Ewan and were not happy when stage was neutralized but it all worked out in the end

Long Term Invested: 9.75u
Stage Nett: +0.5u
Lay: +1.5u

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kt6747
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3 years 7 months ago - 3 years 7 months ago #19 by kt6747

Replied by kt6747 on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

I have backed my KOM selection for today in Zakarin (300/1) and then Alexix Vulimerouz (300/1) as remember him getting away previously on a few climbs and if Mackem thoughts right bout AGR

But more just looking forward to a great afternoon watch TDF, and sure this racing will be more exciting than F1.

Last edit: 3 years 7 months ago by kt6747.

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southpaw
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3 years 7 months ago #20 by southpaw

Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Dipping my toes in -

Valverde 29/1
Impey 33/1

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #21 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Brent Graham wrote: STAGE 2 Tour De France Bets (so far)

Stage Winner
0.5u Pogacar at 33/1 WSB
0.5u Trentin at 50/1 Sunbet
0.5u Benoot at 50/1 Sunbet
0.25u Naeson 150/1 win 40/1 podium at Sunbet

0.5u Trentin/Sagan x Benoot/Latour at 3/1 Sunbet

Betting summary after Stage 1 – through Coil I am also laying riders during the Tour – will mention on whatsapp group and will track. Yesterday we layed 5/2 Ewan and were not happy when stage was neutralized but it all worked out in the end

Long Term Invested: 9.75u
Stage Nett: +0.5u
Lay: +1.5u

added 0.5u GVA 33/1 & 0.25u Muhlburger 150/1

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coil
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3 years 7 months ago #22 by coil

Replied by coil on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

My three for the Stage

Lutsenko 40/1
Hirshi 55/1
Latour 66/1.

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The Vann
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3 years 7 months ago #23 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Little late today. Spent some time star gazing last night - unfortunately from inside my bedroom so been busy with roof repairs.
Stage 2
Win
Trentin @ 33/1
Mohoric @ 66/1
Naesen @ 80/1 He certainly shortened since you guys placed.
Match bet double
van Aert/Phillippe into
Martin/Yates
@ 42/10

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #24 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Stage 3 betting preview is up - I give the break a big chance

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mackem
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3 years 7 months ago #25 by mackem

Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Small bets added up and Stage 2 hurt a bit financially so I'm calming down a bit or I won't make it to Paris.

Stage 3, I've gone with Bennett at 3/1 mainly due to the lack of opportunities for sprinters throughout the tour, then a nibble on on Mezgec each way 40/1. Having seen Brent's comments about the chances for the breakaway loose change each way thrown at Nils Pollitt at 150/1

twitter: @goodforthegame

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Couch Critic
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3 years 7 months ago #26 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

The big question today is if anyone decides to help QS. As the yellow jersey team as well as the team with the Stage favourite it really is all down to them. Yes Sunweb, NTT and Lotto S will fancy their chances but they would do well to call Quickstep's bluff and watch them burn all their matches.

Still, whether a relatively keen break is hunted down or if CCC & Bora look to try and drop the traditional sprinters it looms as a tough stage for the favourites. Bennett or Ewan might get the job done but no value for mind.

Pedersen @ 12/1
Edward Theuns @ 100/1
Mohoric @ 100/1

Twitter: @HDiemont

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #27 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

STAGE 3 Tour De France Bets

0.5u Pedersen win at 14/1 Sunbet
0.25u Van Avermaet win at 80/1 Sunbet
0.25u Naesen win at 100/1 WSB

1u Trentin/Venturini x Bennett/Ewan at 1.27/1 at WSB

Also throwing 0.5u Winning Margin 2sec or more at Sunbet – come on the break

Betting summary after Stage 2 – through a mate of mine I am also laying riders during the Tour – will mention on whatsapp group and will track.

Long Term Invested: 9.75u
Stage Nett: -2.5u
Lay: +1.5u

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The Vann
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3 years 7 months ago #28 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Yesterdays match bet will stand the test of time and maintain its position as worst match bet of 2020 TdF - opposing riders who finished 1st and 3rd.
Stage 3
Unsurprisingly - no match bets today
e/w
Nizzolo @ 12/1

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coil
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3 years 7 months ago #29 by coil

Replied by coil on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

My stage 3 fancies .

Wout van Aert 15/1.
Ed Theuns 55/1
Anfre Greipet 80/1.

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The Vann
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3 years 7 months ago #30 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Stage 3 Live
Sunbet offering 10 riders to win intermediate sprint. Probably only four will actually sprint
Kristoff @ 4/1

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southpaw
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3 years 7 months ago #31 by southpaw

Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Sagan 12/1 in running

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kcmarinopirlo
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3 years 7 months ago - 3 years 7 months ago #32 by kcmarinopirlo

Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Mads Pederson in Running Win @14/1 and Top 3 @7/2

Twitter @kamalch53215288

Last edit: 3 years 7 months ago by kcmarinopirlo.

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #33 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

A tough day, the stage was soft pedaled which I didn't expect - full credit to Ewan though, what a finish

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Couch Critic
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3 years 7 months ago #34 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Superb finish from Ewan. That type of break never had a chance yesterday. Also since we don't have many sprint stages I suppose we should have known it would merely be Bennett vs Ewan.

Anyway, onto the most significant Stage thus far. With all the talk ahead of this stage being important it might end up being a damp squid (that last Cat 1 climb really isn't all that tough). Yet with so many questions marks around Roglic, Pinot, Ala P, Yates, Buchmann we could very well at least get an early glimpse of who really doesn't have the legs to take it in 2020.

With the Green sprint at the 50k mark just before the 1st climb the break should only get away at this point. I expect Jumbo to act like they are the team leading and controlling this TdF today as they stamp their authority on the race. If a break does get away the winner will need strong climbing legs to stay away from a Tony Martin, WvA, Gesink, Kuss & Bennett led peloton.

I will dive into some bets in my next post but ito the break vs GC I think a lot will depend on how Roglic feels during the stage. Primoz has one of the best kicks in the business and at full flight he would fancy this stage. But one firstly wonders whether he really wants to put a target on himself so early and secondly we are unsure as to his exact condition. Quick Step have the man in yellow and again at top form their little Frenchman should fancy a finish like this which I dont see as too long or too steep so they could also help out with the pacemaking.

I'm leaning toward the break not getting the job done and the slightly more punchy climbers battling it out for victory.

Twitter: @HDiemont

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Couch Critic
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3 years 7 months ago - 3 years 7 months ago #35 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

From the break:
Benoot @ 80/1
Ben Hermans @ 100/1
Cataldo @ 150/1

GC Battle:
Roglic @ 11/2 (WSB)

Matches:
Carapaz over Tom Dumoulin @ 11/10
Double: Higuita over Valverde onto Porte over Mas @ 12/10

Twitter: @HDiemont

Last edit: 3 years 7 months ago by Couch Critic.

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #36 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Stage 4 preview is up - am leaning towards the break getting caught

Poor stage for me yesterday and coming out swinging today

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #37 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

0.5u Lopez Podium 10/1 Sunbet
0.5u Pogacar win 12/1 WSB
0.25u Dumoulin win at 40/1 Hollywood

0.5u Quintana/Buchmann x Roglic/Pinot x Bardet/Uran at 38/10 at WSB
5u De Marchi/De Gendt at 11/20 at Sunbet

Betting summary after Stage 3

Long Term Invested: 9.75u
Stage Nett: -5u
Lay: +1.5u

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mackem
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3 years 7 months ago #38 by mackem

Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Pogacar and Yates for me today, Enjoy

twitter: @goodforthegame

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The Vann
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3 years 7 months ago - 3 years 7 months ago #39 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Good of Nizzolo to sneak that 3rd giving me my first positive stage.
Stage 4
I expect around 20 GC riders to hit the last km together so going with
e/w
Yates @ 11/1
and the match bet double
Valverde/Higuita into
Landa/Lopez
@ 49/10

Last edit: 3 years 7 months ago by The Vann.

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kcmarinopirlo
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3 years 7 months ago #40 by kcmarinopirlo

Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Matchbet Double

Bardet > Uran
Formolo > Herrada

@29/20

Twitter @kamalch53215288

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The Vann
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3 years 7 months ago #41 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Managed to get some in play
Benoot @ 10/1 at Sunbet

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southpaw
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3 years 7 months ago #42 by southpaw

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Peters 66/1
Kamna 66/1

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #43 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

No De Marchi in break means my match bet strike is a lottery now

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Brent Graham
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3 years 7 months ago #44 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Carnage for me yesterday, I need to turn this tour around

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Couch Critic
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3 years 7 months ago - 3 years 7 months ago #45 by Couch Critic

Replied by Couch Critic on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

Was nice getting into the winner's circle with Prima Roglic yesterday but given the price it wasn't a huge strike.

For Stage 5 I believe everyone is over hyping the uphill. Most of the sprinters should have little issue getting to the finish. For mind the bigger concern is the bend before the line. Reckon your sprint train will be key today so with that in mind I'm taking a solid strike on Sam Bennett. Gbets offering a Top 3 refund promo so that extra safety net has me going bigger than usual for a 3/1 play in cycling.

Bring it home Sam!

Edit: I see the Promo is limited to R1k so taking that and adding a bit more with the WSB offer as well.

Twitter: @HDiemont

Last edit: 3 years 7 months ago by Couch Critic.

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The Vann
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3 years 7 months ago #46 by The Vann

Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

With Couch on the run-in. Have to look at a train that will put you in position so I'm going with Sunweb for place only
1-3 Bol @ 17/10
and the match bet double
Bonifazio/Viviani into
Hofstetter/Coquard
@ 43/10

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coil
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3 years 7 months ago #47 by coil

Replied by coil on topic Tour de France 2020 - here at last

All over Sam Bennett today like an old ukranian hore ... just hope the pressure of all our money doesn't get to him !!
So bennett 33/10, and evens first 3.
Mads Pederson 19/1 and 6/1 first 3.

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