clMitre 10 Cup Week 1, SR AU Playoff, Pro 14, Premiership 8-13 SEP + other rugby

Not sure best thread for this, but Mitre 10 cup starts next weekend, and All Blacks coach Ian Foster expects 35 many squad to play round 1.

m.facebook.com/nigelyaldensports/photos/...695921059010/?type=3

Have tucked into:

Canterbury -9.5 v North Harbour (ie. Mounga, Whitelock, Bridge)
Wellington -6.5 v Waikato (ie. Perinara, Savea)
Auckland -7.5 v Otago (ie. Sotutu, Ioane, Tuipulotu)
Taranaki -1.5 v Bay of Plenty (Jordy and Beauden Barrett)

Info about squads is scattered around but each teams Wikipedia page now seems to have up to date squads if anyone can’t find elsewhere...

This link has the just named All Blacks squad with the Mitre 10 cup province each plays for:

rugbyredefined.com/wp/new-zealand/2020/0...-rugby-championship/

Are the All Blacks players likely to play in week 1?

Just going off report from Ian Foster saying he expects those in the 35 man squad will be playing mitre 10 week 1 (link above)

Here is number of All Blacks in each province:

Canterbury - 7
Wellington - 4
Auckland -7
Counties- 2
Tasman - 5
BOP - 1
Hawkes - 1
Waikato - 2
Northland - 1
Harbour - 1
Manawatu - 1
Taranaki -3

Taranaki to beat BOP at 0.85 a real standout for me.

Eyeing out Manawatu to beat Northland and Canterbury -9.5 but yet to strike.

Have taken Canterbury to win the title at 2.5/1.

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Taranaki to beat BOP at 0.85 a real standout for me.

Eyeing out Manawatu to beat Northland and Canterbury -9.5 but yet to strike.

Have taken Canterbury to win the title at 2.5/1.

In agreement with Taranaki & Canterbury. Have taken a early strike on the Naki and will put more on later in the week. Barrett bros and a fired up Boshier should be good for them.

Auckland and Canterbury fielding awesome teams this weekend - should romp home. Managed to get a bit more down on both (head to head) before NZ TAB moved lines. Auckland now -10.5 and Canterbury -12.5 (from 7.5 and 9.5).

I closed out my Wellington bet, with McKenzie and Leinart-Brown in for Waikato,

But leaving open Taranaki with Jordy Barrett and Tupou Vaa'i playing (no Beauden Barrett). Jordy was IMO the best player in Super Rugby Aotearoa

..........................

www.allblacks.com/news/all-blacks-availa...cup-opening-weekend/

"Good afternoon. These members of the ABs squad are available for the opening round of the Mitre 10 Cup. These members of the ABs squad are available for the opening round of the Mitre 10 Cup ... GO & Arriane, your dream is close to coming true....

North Harbour: Karl Tu'inukuafe.

Canterbury: Codie Taylor, Samuel Whitelock, Cullen Grace, Richie Mo'unga and George Bridge.

Waikato: Anton Lienert-Brown and Damian McKenzie

Wellington: Asafo Aumua, Ardie Savea and TJ Perenara

Auckland: Alex Hodgman, Ofa Tuungafasi, Patrick Tuipulotu, Akira Ioane, Hoskins Sotutu, Rieko Ioane and Caleb Clarke

Counties Manukau: Nepo Laulala and Dalton Papalii

Tasman: Tyrel Lomax, Shannon Frizell, Sevu Reece and Will Jordan

Northland: Jack Goodhue

Manawatu: Aaron Smith

Taranaki: Tupou Vaa'i and Jordie Barrett

Hawke's Bay: Brad Weber.

NB “Two players, new All Black lock Quinten Strange and hooker Dane Coles are still recovering from injuries and are unavailable, while four others, Joe Moody, Sam Cane, Beauden Barrett and Braydon Ennor, will be assessed by medical staff this week before a decision is made on whether or not they can play this weekend”"

Am I the only one not being that over optimistic on Taranaki? BB will probably be out, Scott is still on the injury list and they have been very poor on pre-season games. Yes Jordi and Vaa'i will be there and also few good SR players such as Boschier but BOP is also packed. Sam Cane is a potential play for them this week end, they have signed Otere Black Tahu from the Chiefs. They were one of the strongest pack last year and can't see the Taranaki pack capable of matching them upfront. I understand Jordi is a massive add to Taranaki but is it really enough on a game played in closed door?

Aaron Carroll - Lock (Mount Maunganui)
Aidan Ross - Prop (Te Puke Sports)
Chase Tiatia - Utility Back (Rangataua)
Cole Forbes - Fullback (Te Puke Sports)
Dan Hollinshead - First Five-Eighth (Te Puke Sports)
Emoni Narawa - Wing (Tauranga Sports)
Fa'asiu Fuatai - Wing (Rangataua)
Haereiti Hetet - Prop (Mount Maunganui)
Hugh Blake - Loose Forward (Mount Maunganui)
Jeff Thwaites - Prop (Te Puna)
Joe Johnston - Loose Forward (Te Puke Sports)
Joe Webber - Wing (Rangiuru)
Joe Tupe - Number 8 (Greerton Marist)
Jordan Lay - Prop (Whakarewarewa)
Kaleb Trask - First Five-Eighth (Tauranga Sports)
Kane Le'aupepe - Lock (Te Puke Sports)
Keepa Mewett - Lock (Tauranga Sports)
Kurt Eklund - Hooker (Mount Maunganui)
Lalomilo Lalomilo - Utility Back (Te Puke Sports)
Leroy Carter - Halfback (Tauranga Sports)
Luke Campbell - Halfback (Te Puke Sports)
Mathew Skipwith-Garland - Midfield Back (Whakarewarewa)
Mitchell Karpik - Loose Forward (Rangataua)
Nathan Vella - Hooker (Rangataua)
Nathan Harris - Hooker (Te Puke Sports)
Nic Souchon - Hooker (Tauranga Sports)
Otere Black - First Five-Eighth (Ruatoki)
Regan Ware - Wing (Rangiuru)
Ross Geldenhuys - Prop (Rangiuru)
Sam Cane - Loose Forward (Reporoa)
Sam Dickson - Number 8 (Rangiuru)
Scott Curry - Midfield Back (Mount Maunganui)
Stan van den Hoven - Lock (Greerton Marist)
Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi - Halfback (Rotoiti)
Tevita Mafileo - Prop (Tauranga Sports)
Zane Kapeli - Loose Forward (Te Puna)

Agree with you CLrugby, not convinced by Taranaki. Very impressive Steamers squad. Will wait for team news, but at this stage leaning Steamers win.

Not convinced by Canterbury minus either. Impressive Harbour squad. I do think the value on the outright to win the Premiership is with Canterbury though.

Otago squad looks paper thin and Auckland squad absolutely packed. Reckon Auckland win by 20+ here.

Have fired Auckland by 14+ at 1.44/1. My only bet at this stage.

Under 7.5 tries in Bears game tonight - see it's mostly 6.5 everywhere else

Bristol vs Northampton

Although Bristol made some changes, they're still fielding an experienced team.
The Saints are fielding an inexperienced team, with many youngsters and players from their academy. They are building for next season, and this match will help their players to gain some experience of what it's like to play in the English top level rugby.

Bet 1: Bristol -17.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Bristol team total over 34.5 points @1.85
Bet 3: Bristol team total over 4.5 tries @1.66

Hello everyone. Let me introduce myself: my name is the Thirteen, I am a French gambler who has been looking at your forum for some time and enjoys discussions, so I decided to register to chat with you!

I mainly bet on the rugby league hence my nickname, but it also happens to me to bet on rugby union in off-peak periods (the NRL is finished in October). I mainly bet on French bookies, and I regularly post my bets on Blogabet.

I think one of the best bets of the weekend in the Mitre 10 Cup is Southland handicap. He's BIG for a first day. This is mostly due to the fact that Southland has won 3 of the last 40 Mitre Cup games. However, they have changed a lot of things this year: complete new staff, the new coach looks great with a HUGE Mitre 10 Cup experience (assistant at Auckland and Canterbury), new players, they recruited well at the forwards with players like Siate Tokolahi, Ethan de Groot did all the preparation for Super Rugby with the Highlanders, Tony Lamborn is a formidable leader. I expect a lot of progress with this team, I want to believe it. I'm waiting for the line-ups, but they made some good friendlies against Otago: something happened in this match, they were down 19-0 in the 20th minute, and in the second half, they were from 33-12 to win 44-40. Before, when Southland conceded two or three tries, they mentally let go, there I see a new mentality in this team, they will fight like dogs.

Overall, I would focus on one team: Otago. The team has not changed, last year, the stats: 3.70 tries scored, 4.80 tries conceded, they still play at Dudedin in their closed stadium. Sunday afternoons games are usually a try-fest contest too.

Loading up more on Chiefs -13.5 vs Saints in Champs Cup.

Quill wrote: Bristol vs Northampton

Although Bristol made some changes, they're still fielding an experienced team.
The Saints are fielding an inexperienced team, with many youngsters and players from their academy. They are building for next season, and this match will help their players to gain some experience of what it's like to play in the English top level rugby.

Bet 1: Bristol -17.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Bristol team total over 34.5 points @1.85
Bet 3: Bristol team total over 4.5 tries @1.66

Lovely stuff Quill, full house. Tries we’re flying in that 2nd half!

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Loading up more on Chiefs -13.5 vs Saints in Champs Cup.

Jumping on board -12.5 also, Saints are down to just 1 senior loosehead after 2 went down tonight.

They'll throw everything at the Chiefs as their Prem season is finished, but you can't go to Sandy Park without a scrum

London Irish under 20.5

Warriors under 17.5

Not very inspired by those mid week games but still find 2 cuts quite high

Under 57.5 in both Sale and LI game

So much rugby going on it's awesome!

For those of you following me we have already banked a nice Bristol minus last night, and a few games being played today.

My tips are on the blog, another 20 tips for upcoming games (5 Premiership, 1 Pro 14, 7 Mitre 10 and 7 Top 14 tips) are up and on Friday I will post the last 6 weekend premiership games.

Happy hunting guys, make those books pay pay

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Betting-Stig/st...-september-2020.html

Stig is red hot!

We're taking exeter -28.5 vs gloucester

smaller interest in -13 FH and jack nowell anytime

Exeter -23.5
Wasps -17.5
Sale -7.5
Bath -13.5

multi @ 4/1

Gallagher Premiership Results

Round 19 - 4/6 = 67%

Since the break - 26/36 = 72%

2019/2020 season - 72/114 = 63%

Wellington -6.5 vs Waikato.

Team is stacked full of SR experience. Also taking Wellington -11.5 at 18/10

In case the bookies offer us the Gallagher odds prior to the squad announced, here a few players out due to the rules in place.

Bath : Judge, Stooke, Walker, Matavesi, Boyce and De Glanville should all be ruled out as selected in the first 6 games – Rokoduguni and Redpath should not be in the squad as well due to the minutes played in the past 2 games
Bristol : Uren, Earl and Woolmore should all be ruled out as selected in the first 6 games – Sheedy, Vui , Morahan and potentially Radradra (he played 132 minutes so far) should be out as well
Exeter : Sam Hidalgo-Clyne should all be ruled out as selected in the first 6 games - Tom Hendrickson should not be in the squad as well due to the minutes played in the past 2 games
Gloucester : No player impacted
Harlequins : Lang, Gray, Garcia Botta and Collier should all be ruled out as selected in the first 6 games – Robshaw, should be out as well while ? for Earle, Baldwin and Lewies who can still play more than 50 minutes
Leicester : Leatigaga should all be ruled out as selected in the first 6 games - Ellis Genge only allowed to play 48 minutes so should be rested
London Irish : Donnell and Cornish should all be ruled out as selected in the first 6 games - Ollie Hassell-Collins should be out as well well due to the minutes played in the past 2 games
Northampton : Only Francis could potentially be impacted as he can play only 64 minutes
Sale : Jean-Luc du Preez and Faf de Kerlk should all be ruled out as selected in the first 6 games - Daniel du Preez should be out as well well due to the minutes played in the past 2 games
Saracens : Tom Whiteley only allowed to play 48 minutes so should be rested
Wasps : No player impacted
Worcester : Richard Palframan should all be ruled out as selected in the first 6 games - Ollie Lawrence only allowed to play 50 minutes so should be rested

So based in those info + few teams playing European Cup the following week end, here are my projected handicaps

Wasps (-5.5) vs Bristol
Leicester (-0.5) vs Northampton
London Irish (+1.5) vs Worcester
Sale (-5.5) vs Bath
Saaracens (-4.5) vs Chiefs
Gloucester (-7.5) vs Harlequins

Here is my preview of the Top14 R2
Last week was not a great week for me – was wrong on Agen on the board and under (2 tries in 2 minutes in the first half killed the under), same for Toulon and Bayonne but good call on the early bet on Racing, the Pau H and the over points between Clermont and Toulouse (what a game!!). Something to keep in mind is the number of penalties that were whistled in 6 games was just extremely high and this won’t change for few weeks so I will be looking at overs this weekend
This week is not easier than the previous one and looking at the caps, no proper value is blindingly obvious so will suggest to keep going with low stake

Racing (-8.5) vs Montpellier : Racing has been impressive last week at Lyon with a convincing win while Montpellier has been more than disappointing against Pau. Racing should bring their best squad to get ready for next week quarter final vs Clermont and that game being played in the Arena on a synthetic pitch, I will probably wait for the over to come out even if I suspect a very high cut. Handicap wise, I personally won’t take anything but think Racing could beat it

Pau (-8.5) vs Agen : That game does not inspire me at all in term of handicaps or tries – if a bookmakers offers number of successful penalties I ll probably go that way if around 5.5. I still believe Pau should win this game but the handicap is well set up (without team news).

Toulouse (-16.5) vs La Rochelle : Toulouse was amazing last Sunday at Clermont : despite being reduced to 13 men, they managed to almost win the game with a last minute try denied by the video but the way they played was just incredible. On the other hand, despite a good win against Toulon, La Rochelle was not that good – its more Toulon that has been absolutely rubbish for the first 40 minutes and on top of that, lost few players during the game. I think Toulouse will use that game to make a statement and that could be a long afternoon for La Rochelle. A Toulouse to win by 13+ could be a good move or wait for the points/tries to come out.

Bayonne (+4.5) vs Clermont : I was expecting more from Bayonne at Brive last week end and very disappointed by the performance, especially defensively – that was awful! On that one I will wait for the all the bets to be out as if Bezy is playing first half, might go with over points Clermont HT as he s been amazing last week and as soon as Parra went in, Clermont stopped playing. Lets see as well if Raka and Penaud are back or not and for all the odds to be out.

Bordeaux (-17.5) vs Brive : Not sure if Brive was that good last week but despite missing few key players, they managed to get a comfortable win against Bayonne while Bordeaux has seen its game against Stade Francais postponed. Bordeaux has been impressive last season but they lost their key player Radradra who was the masterpiece of that team so how will it be this season without him? First thought are on Brive +17.5 as they have a decent kicker, they played already a game and won’t rest key players as no European Cup for them next weekend.

Castres (-8.5) vs Stade Francais : Another game I am not interested in so far and I think the handicap is well setup. But what team will the SF bring (they had 19 players impacted by Covid with some of them having developed lung lesions) and without a single game played since March, not even a friendly, in what shape will the players be? Castres started well with a win away in Agen and at home, they are always hard to beat – the second half handicap in Castres favour could be the right move and so will be an over penalties (depending on the cut).

Toulon (-6.5) vs Lyon : If I had to take a pick right now, that will be the Lyon +6.5 but will wait on this one. Toulon was not that bad last weekend despite losing at La Rochelle but they only played 40 minutes. But with Belleau and Estebeth out Carbonnel probably too, it means Toulon will have to play Serin at fly half and if you had on top of that that the Toulon backline is quite weak and Mignoni, the Lyon coach, is an ex Toulon lad, I think Lyon can come back with a defensive bonus point, if not more.

Great show guys tonight!!!
Based on your info, took two bets on the Mitre

Wellington-5.5 @ 1.70
Auckland-10.5 @ 1.70

It looks like I am the only one with that angle but my main bet is Northland +2.5

The team is stacked with SR experience and with Robinson, Goodhue X2, Nock, Hyland, Ranger and the rest is also solid, with Smith on the bench for the Turbos I am banking Northland

1. Luatangi Li (Debut)
2. Jordan Olsen (Captain)
3. Tyler Kearns (Debut)
4. Sam Caird
5. Josh Goodhue
6. Tom Robinson
7. Kara Pryor
8. Sam McNamara
9. Sam Nock
10. Dan Hawkins (50th Game)
11. Jordan Hyland
12. Jack Goodhue
13. Rene Ranger
14. Pisi Leilua
15. Scott Gregory

North Harbour over 8.5 1st half points @ 10/11

southpaw wrote: North Harbour over 8.5 1st half points @ 10/11

On the same line of thought, South. Harbour +8.5 1st half cap at 17/20 for me

NH vs Canterbury

Small play on over 22.5 @ 1.83 on Spreadex

Cut is 25.5/26.5 elsewhere so giving it a go

I like that 1st half cap play Hanrick, have followed for an interest

Couple of outrights:

Top try: Manasa Mataele @ 12

To win the Premiership: Wellington @ 7

Summary of this morning's match in Miter 10 Cup for those who would like to know:

1st half :
A very good start from Harbour, solid in defense with Hunt / Talakai third row. Gatland masterclass with his foot/kick. Canterbury scored on refereeing errors I find (on the 3rd try, Cameron does not find the touch but the referee says yes, 2nd try, knock on of Canterbury not signaled). 22-21 HT

2nd MT: An interception for the Canterbury bonus try, Harbour started to weaken in defense, very tired around the 60th minute. The problem with this team is that they have a good fifteen starters, but the substitutes contribute little. There was very little support at the breakdown.The substitute 9 was really horrible in this game, at least 10 times he gave the ball to arrested players. Nothing to do with Bryn Hall.

Strong points :
NH: Gatland and Stevenson, the number 14 is a rookie but he's good, a lot of speed, the third row is very energetic.
Canterbury: Classy players, very strong in the rucks (Prinsep was everywhere).

Weak points :
NH: The bench, when Hall came out the team couldn't offer the game anymore, I find the team too dependent on Gatland and Stevenson.
Canterbury: The pair of running backs. OMG, I don't know who's on the bench if Richie isn't there, but with Enari / Cameron Canterbury won't win the title, Enari he's been at the club for three years he's not progressing.

Well done to Hanrick, Bradie and Southpaw for their winning bets.

Juste a weather's point for the upcoming games in Mitre 10 Cup.

Saturday

Waikato Wellington, Hamilton : Weather ok, sunny
Otago Auckland, Dunedin : Closed Roof
Counties Manukau Tasman, Pukekohe : Weather ok, sunny but cold (6°c)

Sunday

Northland Manawatu, Whangarei : Wheather ok, big sun
Taranaki Bay of Plenty, New Plymouth : checked, wind announced and a lot of clouds, maybe rain
Southland Hawke's Bay, Invercargill : Catastrophic weather forecast, lots of wind and rain, to be confirmed on Saturday evening

So, I fancy over tries in the two tomorrow games + Southland H+ Sunday.

Racing vs MHR
Over 50.5 @1.90

Game is played in the Arena with a synthetic pitch and with the new rules in place and the number of penalties awarded per game (Pollard and Iribaren are two very good kickers), I can see a high scoring game

I think Montpelier will be desperate for a win here after losing at home last week +8.5 is good. As the losing bonus point is by 5 in Top 14 should stay within the cap they have named a decent squad.

Bradie what are your thoughts on the Pro2 games tonight please if you have any. I like Vannes +7.5 vs Provence Rugby.

Raider wrote: I think Montpelier will be desperate for a win here after losing at home last week +8.5 is good. As the losing bonus point is by 5 in Top 14 should stay within the cap they have named a decent squad.

Bradie what are your thoughts on the Pro2 games tonight please if you have any. I like Vannes +7.5 vs Provence Rugby.

You can even find some +9.5 on the Montpellier game which seems good but I cannot trust that Montpellier side after last week so went with over

On the prod2, the bet I like is Valence +16.5 (even the 15.5 is good) - very quite game last week end and Nevers will be without 7/8 key players so I think the bookmaker still think Valence is as bad as last year

2 Premiership plays from me:

Saints to beat Tigers at 15/20

Wasps -16.5 vs Bears

Exeter +8.5 @ 1.95

Exeter has not lost a Gallagher game by more than 6/7 points for more than 2 years and despite sending the second team, I don't think that will change on Sunday

French Pro D2 & Mitre 10 Cup
Combo Southland +28.5 x Valence Romans +26 @1.71 on Bet365. Stake 3/5
Southland @9

You have my explanations for Southland on the previous posts. If the rain is confirmed (normally the biggest is for next Tuesday, I prefer to wait before adding more bets because I lost too many bets on approximations related to the weather) it will benefit them because they are better at forwards han backs . I take the win because it is much too big for the first round, there are odds that I do not understand, for example Auckland at 1.08, OK there are the All Blacks but they did the first session of training last week and no friendlies.

For Valence Romans, they won well last week, Nevers average against Grenoble, Raisuqe not here for Nevers, it's their best weapons.

Strong teams for Toulouse and La Rochelle, I wait for the over points here, big sun at Toulouse.

The Thirteen wrote: French Pro D2 & Mitre 10 Cup
Combo Southland +28.5 x Valence Romans +26 @1.71 on Bet365. Stake 3/5
Southland @9

You have my explanations for Southland on the previous posts. If the rain is confirmed (normally the biggest is for next Tuesday, I prefer to wait before adding more bets because I lost too many bets on approximations related to the weather) it will benefit them because they are better at forwards han backs . I take the win because it is much too big for the first round, there are odds that I do not understand, for example Auckland at 1.08, OK there are the All Blacks but they did the first session of training last week and no friendlies..

WTF ?

My blog page will be updated soon but usually a slight delay, to be sure you stay abreast (love that word ) of my picks before lines change follow me on twitter @BettingStig

Kirky wrote:

The Thirteen wrote: French Pro D2 & Mitre 10 Cup
Combo Southland +28.5 x Valence Romans +26 @1.71 on Bet365. Stake 3/5
Southland @9

You have my explanations for Southland on the previous posts. If the rain is confirmed (normally the biggest is for next Tuesday, I prefer to wait before adding more bets because I lost too many bets on approximations related to the weather) it will benefit them because they are better at forwards han backs . I take the win because it is much too big for the first round, there are odds that I do not understand, for example Auckland at 1.08, OK there are the All Blacks but they did the first session of training last week and no friendlies..

WTF ?

What’s happen ?

Took under 76.5 pts @ 1.91 on the Waikato v Wellington game in-play prior to Garden-Bachop's last try.

Hopefully it holds and Wellington also come back and win by +6.5!

Took under 76.5 pts @ 1.91 on the Waikato v Wellington game in-play prior to Garden-Bachop's last try.

Hopefully it holds and Wellington also come back and win by +6.5!

The Thirteen wrote:

Kirky wrote:

The Thirteen wrote: French Pro D2 & Mitre 10 Cup
Combo Southland +28.5 x Valence Romans +26 @1.71 on Bet365. Stake 3/5
Southland @9

WTF ?

What’s happen ?

Apologies The Thirteen, I was a bit confused and in a hurry too