Rugby 21-27 Sep: Champions Cup semi's, Mitre 10 week 3, Super Fan Sat + other

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3 years 6 months ago #51 by southpaw
Agree re points lines a touch low. Gone -

Racing Sarries over 40.5
Onto
Exeter Toulouse over 38.5
Double @ just under 2/1

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3 years 6 months ago #52 by coil

Quill wrote: Bordeaux +8.5 @1.84

This handicap looks a bit high I think. Bristol may win, but Bordeaux are good too.

I also took the +4.5 HT for Bordeaux, as suggested during the show.


Very nice Quill !

For today, Like Bradie I was in Racing's camp . Also have the same impression that Sarries may have played their "World Cup final " last week in Dublin. Racing on the outright and even a dabble on the draw in the 80 minutes ...

The points line seems well set and may have a bet in running on the unders if it gets off to a quick start , though Nigel Owens loves that whistle and it's almost an immidiate arm out for the attacking side once in the opponents 22.

No fancy in the Exeter game at this stage . Very well priced. If anything I'd be looking for unders but in running perhaps as Andrew Brace is a decent unders ref.

The Toulon pitch last week cut up terribly and this week should be more of the same. It def had an influence on the low scoring affair. Having said that I'm very anti Leicester, there are huge underlying problems there and have been for some time, like a stuck record the core is Geordan Murphy . Having said that , I really think they have a huge chance here and if they somehow play to their individual joint collection they could win this . Small bets though on the outright, bigger on the plus 10.5 at 17/20 but firing on the unders 44.5 at 7/10.

Locally on the side of the Bulls against the Sharks and the Lions really could be in trouble against the Stormers, however as Oracle pointed out the teams are in huge transition, new names, new combinations , new coaches , loads of replacements .. small bets advised .

Play well
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3 years 6 months ago #53 by southpaw
Canterbury over 14.5 1st half pts @ 9/10

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3 years 6 months ago #54 by The Thirteen
Double Taranaki x Racing / Saracens Neither to 35 @1,67
I also wait for the under points and race for Colomiers vs Mont de Marsan because it will rain a lot. I also wait for under in tomorrow games in Mitre 10 Cup.

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3 years 6 months ago #55 by coil
Lovely calling lads ! Hawkes Bay delivers

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #56 by Kirky

Kirky wrote: A suggestion for some high value potential bets that I've been successful with previously:

With so many of the game predictions this week likely to fall into the 1-12 bracket, I've taken a bunch of trifectas, i.e. Wellington onto Tasman onto N Harbour all at 1-12. These odds add up quickly to above 25.0 and beer money gets you a good win. Even if only one comes home from 5, you've a decent net gain. :woohoo:
Good luck all and lets hope it's a bookie-bashing weekend :beer

Well I must say. Include Canterbury 1-12 with these three, and I'm zero from four, which gives me a lovely net loss, with a big bunch of lolly going down the shitter.
Conclusion: I'm a f#cking punting genius :woohoo: :pinch: :( :sick:

Oh well, back to lancing boils and filling my own teeth I guess...

Not to forget though: Well done to the winners :) :beer
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Kirky.

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3 years 6 months ago #57 by coil

Kirky wrote:

Kirky wrote: A suggestion for some high value potential bets that I've been successful with previously:

With so many of the game predictions this week likely to fall into the 1-12 bracket, I've taken a bunch of trifectas, i.e. Wellington onto Tasman onto N Harbour all at 1-12. These odds add up quickly to above 25.0 and beer money gets you a good win. Even if only one comes home from 5, you've a decent net gain. :woohoo:
Good luck all and lets hope it's a bookie-bashing weekend :beer

Well I must say. Include Canterbury 1-12 with these three, and I'm zero from four, which gives me a lovely net loss, with a big bunch of lolly going down the shitter.
Conclusion: I'm a f#cking punting genius :woohoo: :pinch: :( :sick:

Oh well, back to lancing boils and filling my own teeth I guess...

Not to forget though: Well done to the winners :) :beer


:lol: :lol: :lol:
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3 years 6 months ago #58 by southpaw
Bulls Sharks over 52.5 total points
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3 years 6 months ago #59 by Brent Graham
Also expecting points going to join you South

Can't wait to see local rugby again

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3 years 6 months ago #60 by Kitchen_theBuys
Also gonna jump on this, its gonna be a try feast

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3 years 6 months ago #61 by The Thirteen
Same thing for me, plus the fact that Rasta is the referee and he suits high paced games

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3 years 6 months ago #62 by Brent Graham
Added over 6.5 tries at 8/11 Bulls game

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3 years 6 months ago #63 by southpaw

Brent Graham wrote: Also expecting points going to join you South

Can't wait to see local rugby again


Hope so Brent, I’ve doubled down after a miss on Sarries game so now heavily involved.

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3 years 6 months ago #64 by bradie82
I m with you guys on the over on the Bulls game
Over 51.5 @ 1.76 on Betfair Exchange

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3 years 6 months ago #65 by Brent Graham
Added Sharks over 21.5 at 1./1 at the break

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3 years 6 months ago #66 by The Thirteen
Thank you ! The same for Lions Stormers ?

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3 years 6 months ago #67 by Brent Graham
I think the 2nd game could be lower scoring - a bit of dew about - still mulling whether to get involved though

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3 years 6 months ago #68 by Brent Graham
u57.5 at just over evens at Sunbet - cooler and some dew and assuming no penalties that is 8 converted tries

And double or quits with Oracle -5 Stormers tie no bet

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3 years 6 months ago #69 by southpaw
Nice call unders Brent.

Reinvesting some of bulls match profits into Toulon Leicester -

Over 18.5 1st half points
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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #70 by Kirky
Well for me this weekend was an absolute bloodbath. 4 wins out of 18 bets placed - I'm bleeding from every orifice.

No way to beat the bookies I'm afraid. They must be psychics. :(

To anyone who won this weekend, well done, you're Spartacus :beer :P
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Kirky. Reason: Delete
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3 years 6 months ago #71 by ThoughtsOnSports
Early thoughts on Pro14 starting next weekend:

Cardiff -4.5. Far too much quality for the Blues and no fans in Parma.

Ospreys +14.5. Gareth Anscombe expected back and I like the direction they are going in.

Munster to beat Scarlets. Scarlets have a couple of injury concerns

Dragons +26.5. I'm a huge Nick Tompkins fan and I believe he will add more bite to the Dragons attack.

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3 years 6 months ago #72 by ThoughtsOnSports
Quins +9.5 at 19/20

Back at the Stoop for Robshaws last game. Both teams at full strength.

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #73 by TheBettingStig

Kirky wrote: Well for me this weekend was an absolute bloodbath. 4 wins out of 18 bets placed - I'm bleeding from every orifice.

No way to beat the bookies I'm afraid. They must be psychics. :(

To anyone who won this weekend, well done, you're Spartacus :beer :P


Lol Kirky do you even bother checking my algorithm tips? On Mitre10 we came up 5 from 7. Granted the Euro picks went 1 from 4 but the Premiership Round 21 mid week win means the algorithm went 7 from 12 on last week's blog.

Will start the new blog soon, maybe not in time for the Quins Wasps game, might as well post it here:

Gallagher Premiership Round 21

Harlequins vs Wasps -7.5
Stig line: -9
Tip: *Wasps minus 3.5 at 0.94 playabets
*edited, line moving towards Quins

Twitter @BettingStig
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by TheBettingStig.
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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #74 by Kirky

TheBettingStig wrote:
Lol Kirky do you even bother checking my algorithm tips? On Mitre10 we came up 5 from 7. Granted the Euro picks went 1 from 4 but the Premiership Round 21 mid week win means the algorithm went 7 from 12 on last week's blog.


Of course I do Stiggie, your tips are like the grail mate. Problem is that my weekend biggies were on the Champions and Challenge Cups, where I too got 1 from 4, which Sunbet didn't pay me for: I think because the match was a draw after normal time, despite Bristol beating the -7.5. But I've queried it anyway :(
In fact, the biggest problem that I have is that Sunbet are so kak, that by the time they issue their lines, the game is upon us. Note they don't have tomorrows Premiership Bristol/Leicester game up yet. :sick: :angry:

On the Mitre 10, I broke my own rule on 1-12 betting because of... you guessed it, greed. Thought I was gonna tear those bookies some new holes - duh...

So all in all a bad weekend, but it came after 3 straight good ones, so I shouldn't cry.

Winning at this sport punting requires self-discipline, and that's something I battle with. My lifetime rule has always been - go for the throat :P

I'll keep taking your tips seriously, and practice a bit of caution. Cheers bud and keep up the good work :beer
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by Kirky. Reason: more thought
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