Super Rugby Unlocked, Mitre 10, Pro 14, Six Nations, GPR Final 23-25 Oct

Average week end for me with a big blow on Toulon H but a nice lucky Cheetahs train.
We have the following H on B364 for Mitre

Otago - Northland -11.5
BOP - Cant +6.5
HB - Manawatu -17.5
NH - Auckland +6.5
Counties - Wellington +16.5
Tasman - Southland -22.5
Waikato - Taranaki -10.5

None of the H jumping at me at first look even if I feel that Southland will trash that you to give a well deserved rest to their starters

Managed to land my first big bet of the week with Stade Francais in Top14 against Racing. Was released @1.80 in France and Racing will be missing almost a dozen of players between international calls and injuries.

Does anyone know what's going on at Wasps ? Covid ?

Twitter talking about them not making the final, and Bristol playing against Exeter ? ?

I've had Exeter at -7.5 and just doubled up at -9.5. Figure if there's smoke there's gotta be some fire somewhere ?

Anybody know anything ?

Kirky wrote: Does anyone know what's going on at Wasps ? Covid ?

Twitter talking about them not making the final, and Bristol playing against Exeter ? ?

I've had Exeter at -7.5 and just doubled up at -9.5. Figure if there's smoke there's gotta be some fire somewhere ?

Anybody know anything ?

Wasps had several Covid tests last week so most of players have been isolated or removed from collective training. Apparently today was 4 new positive cases confirmed which means that these players won’t be eligible for the final and some may get isolated or still positive from last week. In the most optimistic scenario Wasps will play with 5-6 players missing (names haven’t been disclosed) and more or less 7-10 days without training so likely to get smashed. If they are not allowed to play like Sale 3 weeks ago then they forfait and Bristol as the best remaining ranked team will replace them for the final. Decision likely to be on Wednesday/ Thursday.

Amount of players the domestic clubs are losing this week to international duties, in order of most to least affected. Depth becomes super important now and keeping an eye on team sheets will be crucial this week.

Pro14
Leinster -20
Edinburgh -14
Glasgow -14
Scarlets -14
Munster -10
Benneton -13
Zebre -12
Connacht -6
Cardiff -6
Ospreys -6
Dragons -5
Ulster -4

Premiership
Exeter -4
Wasps -1

Top14
Toulouse -8
Racing -7
Toulon -5
Montpellier -5
Lyon -3
La rochelle -2
Pau -1
Stade -1
Brive -1

TheBettingStig wrote: Amount of players the domestic clubs are losing this week to international duties, in order of most to least affected. Depth becomes super important now and keeping an eye on team sheets will be crucial this week.

Pro14
Leinster -20
Edinburgh -14
Glasgow -14
Scarlets -14
Munster -10
Benneton -13
Zebre -12
Connacht -6
Cardiff -6
Ospreys -6
Dragons -5
Ulster -4

Premiership
Exeter -4
Wasps -1

Top14
Toulouse -8
Racing -7
Toulon -5
Montpellier -5
Lyon -3
La rochelle -2
Pau -1
Stade -1
Brive -1

Very helpful thank you one correction on Racing it’s actually nine if I have it right: Bernard Le Roux, Camille Chat, Olivier Klemenczak, George-Henri Colombe, Virimi Vakatawa, Teddy Thomas, Finn Russell, Guram Gogichashvili and also Juan Imhoff back with the Pumas after years off.

CL Rugby

do you watch these guys on youtube ?

and have you ever though of going on ?

Stoossy wrote: CL Rugby

do you watch these guys on youtube ?

and have you ever though of going on ?

I hope I get the question right but yes watching some (not all) of the emission on YouTube. I am a big fan of this forum because it’s a positive atmosphere with a lot of very good information shared by people from different countries and as a NH there are valuable information on SH and SA. Also nobody is arguing or making fun of other people view and it’s not so common on internet. Just a great place to read and post!

I don’t have a YouTube show and don’t plan to do it (or never thought?) really no time as I have enough with my work and family. I am writing some rugby posts for LeRugbynistere (french site) as a free contributor and I also have relative serious betting activities (I am a paid tipsters and disciplined and serious bettor on my own). But most importantly a massive LOVER of the game watching 8-10 matches per week and going to stadium whenever possible. Sorry for the private post! Cheers guys you all rock.

Ulster and Connacht have traditionally gone well in international windows.
20 missing at Leinster is a big number, but they have a strong academy so tread carefully if punting against.

I'll wait before jumping on Exeter minus v Wasps - we don't know which players are out.
Also think Exeter have suffered too much pain in previous finals to allow emotional exhaustion affect them after European Cup win

But agree Stade Francais looks a good bet v Racing. Stade lost to Clermont last night but were better than the scoreline suggests

CLrugby wrote:

Stoossy wrote: CL Rugby

do you watch these guys on youtube ?

and have you ever though of going on ?

I hope I get the question right but yes watching some (not all) of the emission on YouTube. I am a big fan of this forum because it’s a positive atmosphere with a lot of very good information shared by people from different countries and as a NH there are valuable information on SH and SA. Also nobody is arguing or making fun of other people view and it’s not so common on internet. Just a great place to read and post!

I don’t have a YouTube show and don’t plan to do it (or never thought?) really no time as I have enough with my work and family. I am writing some rugby posts for LeRugbynistere (french site) as a free contributor and I also have relative serious betting activities (I am a paid tipsters and disciplined and serious bettor on my own). But most importantly a massive LOVER of the game watching 8-10 matches per week and going to stadium whenever possible. Sorry for the private post! Cheers guys you all rock.

this

Taking Canterbury -6.5 v BOP this weekend (1.93 at bet365)

“three players have been released to play Mitre 10 Cup rugby this weekend. Dunshea and loose forward Cullen Grace will be available for Canterbury's game against Bay of Plenty in Tauranga on Saturday afternoon, with loose forward Akira Ioane available for Auckland's match against North Harbour in Auckland on Saturday night.”

ABs team announced to travel to Aussie for rugby championship.

www.allblacks.com/news/all-blacks-travel...Rmxc7cMqz8dsSrMcT66s

CLrugby wrote:

TheBettingStig wrote: Amount of players the domestic clubs are losing this week to international duties, in order of most to least affected. Depth becomes super important now and keeping an eye on team sheets will be crucial this week.

Pro14
Leinster -20
Edinburgh -14
Glasgow -14
Scarlets -14
Munster -10
Benneton -13
Zebre -12
Connacht -6
Cardiff -6
Ospreys -6
Dragons -5
Ulster -4

Premiership
Exeter -4
Wasps -1

Top14
Toulouse -8
Racing -7
Toulon -5
Montpellier -5
Lyon -3
La rochelle -2
Pau -1
Stade -1
Brive -1

Very helpful thank you one correction on Racing it’s actually nine if I have it right: Bernard Le Roux, Camille Chat, Olivier Klemenczak, George-Henri Colombe, Virimi Vakatawa, Teddy Thomas, Finn Russell, Guram Gogichashvili and also Juan Imhoff back with the Pumas after years off.

Thanks yeah so these are only from the 6 Nations, perhaps someone can update with players leaving for other international teams as well.

Couple of fancies for me this week:

Italy +28.5

Stormers -12.5
Bulls to beat Sharks

Sorry I see Munster should have been below Benneton and Zebre.

TheBettingStig wrote: Amount of players the domestic clubs are losing this week to international duties, in order of most to least affected. Depth becomes super important now and keeping an eye on team sheets will be crucial this week.

Pro14
Leinster -20
Edinburgh -14
Glasgow -14
Scarlets -14
Munster -10
Benneton -13
Zebre -12
Connacht -6
Cardiff -6
Ospreys -6
Dragons -5
Ulster -4

Premiership
Exeter -4
Wasps -1

Top14
Racing -9 (Colombe, Chat, Le Roux, Thomas, Vakatawa, Klemenczak, Russell, Gogichashvili, Imhoff)
Toulouse -8 (Baille, Marchand, Mavauka, Cros, Tolofua, Dupont, N’tamack and Ramos)
Toulon -8 (Gros, Taofifenua, Olivon, Serin, Villiere, Gigashvili, Isa, Moyano)
Montpellier -8 ( Haouas, Willemse, Bouthier, Rattez, Vincent, Nariashvili, Chilachava, Aprasidze)
Brive -7 (Ceccarelli, Doge, Kamikamica, Tuicuvu, Giorgadze, Lobzhanidze, Abzhandadze)
Stade -6 (Fickou, Nayacalevu, Melikidze, Matera, Kremer, Sanchez)
Bordeaux -5 (Ratuva, Kaulashvili, Gorgadze, Petti, Cordero)
Lyon -5 (Bamba, Geraci, Cretin, Tuisova, Gomez Kodela)
La Rochelle -4 (Alldritt, Retiere, Botia, Bosch)
Pau -3 (Pesenti, Vatubua, Calles)
Clermont -1 (Ravai)

Taking the liberty to add more details to your post Stig on the top14 – including Georgia, Argentina and the Fijian squad (players should be available this week as gathering in France Sunday but not 100% sure but at least its there for future reference but put them in bold) .

On the other hand, just to give you a heads up on the French team. There has been a lot of fight between “Federation” and “League/clubs” in order to prevent same players to be involved in the 6 games as Top14 will be played at the same time and some teams are definitely impacted.
The agreement is that Galthier will select 31 players every weekend, 3 will be released on Wednesday to play the top 14 so 28 involved every weekend with a maximum of 3 games per players during those 6 weeks.

Hi friends,

I need some Master mind tips for this weekend Round 7 of Mitre 10, winning team, head to head....
Please do comment your tips below.

cheer's...
Muller

bradie82 wrote:

TheBettingStig wrote: Amount of players the domestic clubs are losing this week to international duties, in order of most to least affected. Depth becomes super important now and keeping an eye on team sheets will be crucial this week.

Pro14
Leinster -20
Edinburgh -14
Glasgow -14
Scarlets -14
Munster -10
Benneton -13
Zebre -12
Connacht -6
Cardiff -6
Ospreys -6
Dragons -5
Ulster -4

Premiership
Exeter -4
Wasps -1

Top14
Racing -9 (Colombe, Chat, Le Roux, Thomas, Vakatawa, Klemenczak, Russell, Gogichashvili, Imhoff)
Toulouse -8 (Baille, Marchand, Mavauka, Cros, Tolofua, Dupont, N’tamack and Ramos)
Toulon -8 (Gros, Taofifenua, Olivon, Serin, Villiere, Gigashvili, Isa, Moyano)
Montpellier -8 ( Haouas, Willemse, Bouthier, Rattez, Vincent, Nariashvili, Chilachava, Aprasidze)
Brive -7 (Ceccarelli, Doge, Kamikamica, Tuicuvu, Giorgadze, Lobzhanidze, Abzhandadze)
Stade -6 (Fickou, Nayacalevu, Melikidze, Matera, Kremer, Sanchez)
Bordeaux -5 (Ratuva, Kaulashvili, Gorgadze, Petti, Cordero)
Lyon -5 (Bamba, Geraci, Cretin, Tuisova, Gomez Kodela)
La Rochelle -4 (Alldritt, Retiere, Botia, Bosch)
Pau -3 (Pesenti, Vatubua, Calles)
Clermont -1 (Ravai)

Taking the liberty to add more details to your post Stig on the top14 – including Georgia, Argentina and the Fijian squad (players should be available this week as gathering in France Sunday but not 100% sure but at least its there for future reference but put them in bold) .

On the other hand, just to give you a heads up on the French team. There has been a lot of fight between “Federation” and “League/clubs” in order to prevent same players to be involved in the 6 games as Top14 will be played at the same time and some teams are definitely impacted.
The agreement is that Galthier will select 31 players every weekend, 3 will be released on Wednesday to play the top 14 so 28 involved every weekend with a maximum of 3 games per players during those 6 weeks.

Hello and thank you for this hard work gentlemen. I complete the post with the dates of the selections' gatherings.

Scotland, Fiji, France, Georgia and Italy: October 19 to December 6, 7 weeks
Argentina: October 19 to September 14, 8 weeks
Fiji: 6 weeks only, from October 26 to December 6. The Fijians of the Top 14 will therefore be able to play this weekend.

Barbarians are playing England this weekend, but I think Vern Cotter, who picked 7 Fijians it seems to me, will take on local players (Fijian Drua)

TOS did very well to lock in Stormers -12 early doors.

We’re taking Stormers -16.5 at 9/10 (betx).

Springboks v semi pros, and it sounds like Stormers want to make up for last weekend’s mediocre performance

Muller wrote: Hi friends,

I need some Master mind tips for this weekend Round 7 of Mitre 10, winning team, head to head....
Please do comment your tips below.

cheer's...
Muller

Otago win. Northland plus
Canterbruy win. BOP plus
Hbay win. Hbay minus
Auckland win. Harbour plus
Wellington win. Counties plus
Tasman win. Tasman minus
Waikato win. Waikato minus

Here we have Lions @1.87 and Bulls @1.82
Any angle on these two matches? I somehow like the Lions @1.87, 2 away losses that were not that bad, expect them to turn it back on track at home. Bulls I still can’t wrap my head around their true value, looks like a trap to me.

Counties +16.5 vs Wellies.

Wellies missing Kirifi and PUJ to AB squad. Counties back on their home turf and expect them to cover.

Adding Scarlets -2.5. Losing players this weekend but more depth than Benetton.

I see betx is going the way of sunbet now - you have to "ask" them to lay a "high risk" bet - they refuse, but the odds stay the same
LOL - how do they turn a profit without laying a bet
When will we ever get spread betting and a "betfair" type of exchange in South Africa

---

FYI - Wasps will play the final it is now confirmed they will restart collective training today. We don’t know yet the players tested positive and out but I will investigate. Exeter should anyway trash them

Under 56.5 in NH vs Auckland.

Evening kickoff, weather looking a little ominous. Two quality outfits in a region derby.

Thanks TOS - that's just rubber stamped what I was thinking also, so I have jumped on.

Its available at under 58.5 NH v Auckland (1.91) for those with access to Betfair.

Also tempted by Tasman v Southland under 53.5.

Southland never score many points and Tasman were awful last weekend.

Even if Tasman smash them - I dont see them putting over 40 pts on them. No Southland game has had more than a total of 32 pts btw both teams all season.

Although someone mentioned that Southland are resting players this week. Does anyone know if this is the case?

Would still be tempted to wade in anyway though!

kompos wrote: I see betx is going the way of sunbet now - you have to "ask" them to lay a "high risk" bet - they refuse, but the odds stay the same
LOL - how do they turn a profit without laying a bet
When will we ever get spread betting and a "betfair" type of exchange in South Africa

---

I was encouraged when GG came onto the scene but sadly their rugby offering has shrinked to no more than match prices and handicaps on most matches these days.

11 players missing for the Zebra including 3 props
13 players missing for Tréviso including 2 number ten

Last Zebra trips to Leinster:

41-6, 70-6, 52-0, 29-8, 27-0, 37-7.

We know the depth of Leinster's workforce. To be champions last season, they used 54 players, the most in Europe.

Seen on the Leinster forum:

Available players:

LH Prop
Peter Dooley (26 / Birr RFC / Lansdowne)
Michael Milne (21 / Birr RFC-Roscrea / UCD)

TH Prop
Michael Bent (34)
Tadhg Furlong (27 / New Ross RFC / Clontarf) - injured?
Ciaran Parker (24 / Exile)
Tom Clarkson (20 / Blackrock / DUFC)

Hooker
Sean Cronin (34)
James Tracy (29 / Newbridge / UCD) - ireland training squad
Dan Sheehan (22 / Clongowes / Lansdowne) - injured
John McKee (20 / Campbell / Old Belvedere)

Lock
Scott Fardy (36)
Devin Toner (34 / Castleknock / Lansdowne)
Ross Molony (26 / St. Michaels / UCD)
Jack Dunne (21 / St. Michaels / DUFC)
Charlie Ryan (21 / Blackrock / UCD)
Brian Deeny (20 / Wexford RFC / Clontarf)
Joe McCarthy (19 / Blackrock / DUFC)

Backrow
Rhys Ruddock (29 / Exile / St. Marys)
Dan Leavy (26 / St. Michaels / UCD) - injured?
Josh Murphy (25 / St. Michaels / UCD)
Scott Penny (21 / St. Michaels / UCD)
Martin Moloney (21 / Athy RFC / Clontarf)
Sean O'Brien (20 / Blackrock / UCD)
Alex Soroka (19 / Belvedere / Clontarf)

Scrumhalf
Luke McGrath (27 / St. Michaels / UCD)
Rowan Osborne (23 / Clongowes / DUFC)
Hugh O'Sullivan (22 / Belvedere / Clontarf)
Paddy Patterson (21 / Blackrock / UCD)
Cormac Foley (20 / St. Gerards / Lansdowne)

Outhalf
Harry Byrne (21 / St. Michaels / Lansdowne) - ireland training squad
David Hawkshaw (21 / Belvedere / Clontarf)

Center
Rory O'Loughlin (26 / St. Michaels / UCD)
Ciaran Frawley (22 / Skerries RFC / UCD)
Tommy O'Brien (22 / Blackrock / UCD)
Liam Turner (21 / Blackrock / DUFC)

Back Three
Dave Kearney (31 / Clongowes / Lansdowne)
James Lowe (28) - ireland training squad
Cian Kelleher (26 / St. Michaels / Lansdowne)
Jimmy O'Brien (23 / Newbridge / UCD)
Michael Silvester (22 / Clongowes / DUFC)
Aaron O'Sullivan (20 / Exile / Blackrock)
Andrew Smith (20 / St. Michaels / Clontarf)
Niall Comerford (20 / Blackrock / UCD)
Max O'Reilly (20 / St. Gerards / DUFC)

Possible starting XV

1. Dooley
2. Cronin
3. Bent
4. Molony
5. Toner
6. Murphy
7. Penny
8. Ruddock
9. McGrath
10. HB
11. Kelleher
12. Frawley
13. ROL
14. Kearney
15. JOB

I will wait for the lines-up but i think it will be my best bet of the week end with Stade Français. I think Leo Cullen will play several youngsters, but the line up will be very good. Leinster H and big strike on Zeber under points. No rain on Dublin Friday night.

CLrugby wrote: FYI - Wasps will play the final it is now confirmed they will restart collective training today. We don’t know yet the players tested positive and out but I will investigate. Exeter should anyway trash them

Trash them? Wasps have won 12 out of their last 13 matches, handing out the trashing to all opposing teams in the process. Neutral venue as well, I make Wasps the team to beat.

Players spotted in training include:

Jacob Umaga, Josh Bassett, Dan Robson, Lima Sopoaga, Matteo Minozzi, Marcus Watson, Jimmy Gopperth, Michael Le Bourgeois, Zach Kibirige, Jack Willis, Thomas Young, Tommy Taylor, Joe Launchbury, Will Rowlands, Jeff Toomaga-Allen.

I think the opportunity to play the final once again will have them extra motivated.

No Ioane or Koroi for Otago, which means their 3rd choice 10 (a scrumhalf) is running the cutter

Still think Otago win but think some value in the plus which will likely shift in a bit

Betting Northland +12 @ 1.91

You did very well to grab +12 after Ioane and Koroi are ruled out, +7.5 now.

Apparently Ioane and Koroi turned up to training hung over on Monday

9 players out so far for the Lions. And because of that, 2 for the Stormers (Kitshoff and Ntubeni) because they were in contact with the infected players.

Cheetahs @ 1.95
Treviso + 2.5 @ 1.82

I like Italy +28.5 as well. Ireland will not get 4 converted tries margin

Ireland on the 2nd half cap when lines come out.

Italy usually okay 1st half, Ireland will want to get ahead, then target bonus point, then go for points difference if they are on top. Could really open up in 2nd half.

Italy +28.5 X France ML X Benetton Treviso ML
3.66 treble @ Bet 365

I think 28 pts is too big. Yes Ireland are chasing 6N but this is not the humming Ireland of the J Schmidt era.
Our halfbacks are hardly in rocking form.
Ireland's future 10 is lining out for Leinster v Zebre tonight

I like new Italy 10 - Paolo Garbisi. He went well v Leinster and Ulster recently. He's only 20 but has another experienced outhalf, Carlo Canno picked at 12 to guide him through.
I get that Italy don't have as much to play for. But these are professional players and you would think this match will mean something after the year we have had.

Weather forecast indicates some showers early tomorrow and likely cleared by 3.30pm local KO.
But we may have a greasy ball.

France have something to play for and I expect them to dominate Wales in tight 5.

Treviso complete the treble. They have an international spine and not as affected by visiting Scarlets who lose 7 players to Welsh side

Fingers Crossed!

Relatively strong Wasps side or at least stronger than expected, however their bench is extremely weak. I will target a live bet on that one hopping that Wasps score first or stay close before HT. They will suffer on the last 20’ especially with Exeter benching some of their first front 8

My bets for this week end

Stade Francais 1.61 French Top 14
Under 36,5 pts Panthers Storm 1.80 NRL Final
France 1.53 Test Match
Lyon +11 1.89 French Top 14
Soyaux Angoulême x Vannes 1.73 French Division 2
Under 47,5 pts Oyonnax Aurillac 1.83 French Division 2
Neither 40 (Oyonnax Aurillac) x Neither 30 (Valence Romans Béziers) 1.73

Good luck guys

I know few of you told me to be careful with the over on tonight's game but could not stop myself

Over 53.5 @ 1.91
Over 24.5 HT @ 1.83
Mbonambi @ 2.62

Thanks to Jordan for the last 2