La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling

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3 years 6 months ago #1 by The Vann
La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling was created by The Vann
La Vuelta starts today and requires a new topic. The Giro topic has favored the books so now its our turn.
Once again it is difficult to spot any value in the out rights as all markets seem fairly priced. The only minor prospect for me is FDJ in the team comp at 40/1. The side looks good enough to place but I can't find any 1-3 at my books and won't be taking the 40/1.
Today's stage finishes on a cat 1 but the climb is not steep enough for one rider to jump clear so I expect a small group to sprint for the line. The finish is flat and this fellow finished level with S Yates on a couple of stages at Tirreno and Simon has a bit of a sprint.
Vuelta Stage 1
e/w
Vlasov @ 25/1

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #2 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Really odd that so many GC contenders lost chunks of time yesterday on a relatively simple stage. All the racing probably counting on many legs. A few break darts for the day. All these guys lost enough time yesterday and I'm hoping it was intended.
Vuelta Stage 2
Aranburu @ 20/1
Geschke @ 28/1
Wellens @ 40/1
Mccarthy @ 80/1
Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by The Vann.

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3 years 6 months ago #3 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Yesterday was no money honey but we got value with 2 of 5 riders in break. Moviestar are still a little frisky so just one break dart and one GC prospect.
Vuelta Stage 3
D Martin @ 11/1
Geschke @ 40/1

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3 years 6 months ago - 3 years 6 months ago #4 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Vuelta stage 5 going for Nans Peters @40/1

Also see Team Ineos dropping Kelderman and then Geoghegan Hart not losing enough (if any) time to Hindley that he cant win back on the time trial... so 7/4 to win the Giro is still good for me

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Last edit: 3 years 6 months ago by kcmarinopirlo.
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3 years 6 months ago #5 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
1u Aranburo Vuelta and Tao Giro at 50/1

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3 years 5 months ago #6 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Unfortunately had some business to attend to so could not follow my Dan Martin win the next day. Hopefully still got some form.
Trying a Quick Step fast finisher for the expected reduced peloton sprint and maybe the birthday boy gets lucky.
Vuelta Stage 6
Bagioli @ 33/1
Formolo @ 40/1

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3 years 5 months ago #7 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
0.5u on

Peters 40
Formolo 40
Vlasov 12

0.25u
Eg 200

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3 years 5 months ago #8 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
added 0.5u Soler at 50/1 and 2.5u Soler/Valverde 1/1

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3 years 5 months ago #9 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
0.5u Costa 16/1 LLS 11/1

0.25u Schultz 66/1 Godon 100/1

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3 years 5 months ago #10 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Good match bet pick yesterday Brent. With today's finish being 5km flat chances are my match bet riders finish together with a 50/50 chance so I am taking the odds on offer.
Vuelta Stage 7
Match bet
Carthy/Carapaz @ 27/10
And break away darts are the following
Formolo @ 20/1
Aranburu @ 28/1
Mate @ 100/1
Eg @ 150/1
I see several guys are on LL Sanchez but the current 11/1 for me is just daylight robbery.

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3 years 5 months ago #11 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Vuelta Stage 7
Taken another match bet - same logic as above
Peters/Champoussin @ 14/10

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3 years 5 months ago #12 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Thought I made both my bets yesterday but turned out it was Nielsen from EF sprinting and not Carthy. Two bets again today with a few darts.
Vuelta Stage 8
1-3
D Martin @ 9/2 (Sunbet had the best odds)
Match Bet Double
Champoussin/Formolo
G Martin/Woods
@ 15/10
and the stage beers
D Martin @ 18/1
Champoussin @ 28/1
Cattaneo @ 66/1

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3 years 5 months ago #13 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Should be another great stage

0.5u Poels 33/1 De La Cruz 80/1

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3 years 5 months ago #14 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Added 0.5u Formolo 66/1

3u double Crapaz/Roglic x Martin/Mas at 13/8

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3 years 5 months ago - 3 years 5 months ago #15 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
I think Quick Step and Bora chase down any breaks today so its Bennett v Ackermann. The odds on both are too short so I am going half stake on the third place and a match bet double at similar smaller stake.
Vuelta Stage 9
1-3
Kanter @ 11/2
Double
Ackermann/Phillipsen into
Mareczko/Nielsen
@ 21/10
Last edit: 3 years 5 months ago by The Vann.

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3 years 5 months ago - 3 years 5 months ago #16 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Took some 13/10 Field/Bennett in running yesterday and got very lucky with Bennett DQ'd

Todays stage has so many possibilities and while Bennett is a firm fav you can see from the range of riders behind him that anything can happen including a Roglic win

0.5u Aranburu at 11/1 - his team will need to make it really tough up the final climb to deaden the legs of Bennett

0.5u Costa at 33/1 - been getting into breaks and I give the break a chance today - could also win with a late attack

0.25u Zimmermann at 200/1 - stage should suit and cannot do damage at the price

Main bet

1.5u winning margin 1 sec or more at 7/5

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Last edit: 3 years 5 months ago by Brent Graham.

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3 years 5 months ago #17 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Likewise. Arsed it yesterday with the Bennett DQ elevating Kanter to 3rd making it 5-0 against the books over the last three stages.
Can't remember having seen this finish before but if Aranburu is at 11/1 I am happy with my place pick for similar odds as they finished next to each other at Milan - San Remo.
Vuelta Stage 10
1-3
Smith @ 10/1
and the Match Bet Double
Philipsen/Ackermann into
Kort Nielsen/Aranburu
@ 4/1

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3 years 5 months ago #18 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Nil return yesterday. Finish definitely more difficult then I expected. Massive stage today starting straight up a climb so we could get decent climbers in the break.
Vuelta Stage 11
Win
Carapaz @ 11/2
1-3
D Martin @ 5/1
Match bet double
Herrada/Goossens
G Martin/Champoussin
@ 31/10
Break away beers
Formolo @ 28/1
Peters @ 40/1

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3 years 5 months ago #19 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
What a stage lies ahead today - I expect a strong group with a couple of fringe GC men in it forcing Jumbo to ride hard

0.5u on

Nieve 22/1, Soler 22/1

1.5u Rider in red Roglic - No at 14/5

Price seems big (it was 7/2 when I 1st looked) given Carapaz is 6/4 in a match bet and they are level on time - I expect JV to be put under big pressure today although clearly Roglic is very strong and does not need to attack

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3 years 5 months ago #20 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Not the exciting stage I pictured mainly because the GC guys had their eyes on todays short but monstrous stage - don't miss the final climb

I had a nice interest on Soler yesterday but he had worked too hard and was a big underdog when it came to the 2 horse race

Roglic a big fav today and hard to argue but I am going

0.5u Hirt at 66/1 and Nieve at 40/1

Have layed Roglic outright at 5/10 so need him to show some unlikely weakness today

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3 years 5 months ago #21 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Barely kept the nose above water yesterday with the match bet landing. Looking at today's stage I see the first 26km of trying to get in the break and the last 26km a GC contest. The remaining 57km just not enough for the break to stay.
Vuelta Stage 12
The three favorites PR/RC and Vlasov are 14/10 - 4/1 - 6/1. Personally think these odds offer much better value
1-3
D Martin @ 5/1
Not sure how G Martin will approach the stage but the 19/10 under dog odds are just too long
Match Bet Double
G Martin/Gaudu
Vlasov/Poels
@ 37/10
and today's beers find a single home
Win
G Martin @ 50/1

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3 years 5 months ago #22 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Will Barta looks big for the ITT tomorrow 66/1 and 10/1 to podium

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3 years 5 months ago - 3 years 5 months ago #23 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Poels was more then capable of putting in an easy top 10 ITT late in Grand Tours when Sky were going for the team competition. I think he has 20 plus seconds in this match.
Vuelta Stage 13
Poels/Grossschartner @ 14/10
and a treble
Roglic/Cavagna - TJ/Dyball - Vlasov/Valverde @ 39/10
Days beers going to
1-3
Poels @ 18/1
Win
Any form and he cruises this
Froome @ 33/1
Last edit: 3 years 5 months ago by The Vann.

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3 years 5 months ago #24 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling

kcmarinopirlo wrote: Will Barta looks big for the ITT tomorrow 66/1 and 10/1 to podium

So very close there kc - but still a winner :beer

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3 years 5 months ago #25 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Brilliant call was pulling for you - great ride from Barta

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3 years 5 months ago #26 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Thanks Gentleman, One more second and Christmas would have been sorted! haha

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3 years 5 months ago #27 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
1u Fraille at 14/1

0.5u
Schultz 100/1
Rojas 100/1
Godon 66/1

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3 years 5 months ago #28 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Added 2u winning margin 1 sec or more 11/10

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3 years 5 months ago #29 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Hopping on board the 1 sec winning margin also at 11/10.
I think if Movistar put a rider in the break today then the break stays. They are very good at it so just a few darts
Vuelta Stage 14
LL Sanchez @ 22/1
Formolo @ 40/1
e/w
Donovan @ 150/1
Mader @ 300/1

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3 years 5 months ago #30 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Feeling flush today - Always a good sign for the books but what the heck. A few more beers
Perichon @ 270/1
Goossens @ 440/1

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3 years 5 months ago #31 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
So Movistar let the break go but they still find a way via the IDIOT Soler - who refuses to work and allows the other three to return - to scupper Brent and Vanns brilliant 1 second play. Swine Spanish G*T

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3 years 5 months ago #32 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Disappointing and also disappointed in Astana although hoping they have eyes on today which will be a very difficult stage to control

2u Fraille 12/1
0.5u Godon 80/1 Schultz 66/1

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3 years 5 months ago #33 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Selected the beers. May go for an in-play bet
I Izzagirri @ 33/1
Stannard @ 40/1
Godon @ 66/1
Verona @ 125/1
Goossens @ 250/1

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3 years 5 months ago #34 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
My donations to our friendly bookmaking fraternity below

2u Fraille at 14/1 - has done nothing for the last 2 days with my money on - problem is I would rather back him and lose now than not back him and watch him win :lol:

0.5u Godon and Schultz at 50/1 and 125/1

1u Valverde at 16/1

I really hope we get some cross win action early, would make for a great stage

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3 years 5 months ago #35 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Im on Godon today as well so fingers crossed!

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3 years 5 months ago #36 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Stage does not look that different to yesterday so starting with the same winner. Have to include Goossens - same logic as Fraille above.
Vuelta Stage 16
Philipsen @ 28/1
Godon @ 50/1
Simon @ 66/1
Dewulf @ 100/1
Goossens @ 250/1

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3 years 5 months ago #37 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Got a few free bets from a book who missed my one winning punt in the last ten - October is usually like that. Spending them on
Mader @ 44/1
van Rensburg @ 199/1

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3 years 5 months ago #38 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Stage looks like GC to me so going with the young russian. Last time we went up an HC Carthy had the measure of Carapaz so throwing that into my match bet.
Vuelta Stage 17
Vlasov @ 6/1
Match bet double
Carthy/Carapaz into Grossschartner/Nieve @ 33/10
and as its our last climb of the cycling year a few beers just in case
Formolo @ 33/1
Peters @ 70/1
Storer @ 150/1

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3 years 5 months ago #39 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Made a few match bets and scored an 11/1 on a stage but ending with a net loss. Did not take any out rights as virtually none were offered after the start so no 20/1 like the Giro to balance the books.
This young sprinter has been active in the last week making a break or two and generally looking like he still has some legs. Unlikely to separate the top three in today's sprint stage but , if someone does, it would probably be him and the odds are pretty nifty
Vuelta Final Stage
1-3
Stannard @ 24/1

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3 years 2 months ago #40 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic La Vuelta 2020 and other cycling
Looking at 2021 Grand Tours ive taken a early special that an Ineos Grenadier rider will be on the podium in each of them at 14/1


They've added

Adam Yates
Daniel Felipe Martinez
Richie Porte
And Tom Pidcock


To Bernal, Carapaz, Thomas, Sivakov + GeogheganHart

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