Super Rugby Unlocked, Mitre 10, Pro 14, Aus v NZL 2-8 Nov

Both teams playing with Red jerseys and black shorts ... I will never understand it typical NZ rugby.

hanrick wrote: Tasman -12.5 at 9/10 and Tasman over 26.5 points at 0.89/1.

Shouldn't rain in Blenheim

Shocker

Going for NZ to win and under 52.5 pts @ 13/10 on Betfair.

I think the Aussies will be up for this and it will be tight in the first half before NZ run away with it in the second half.

Under 52.5 has come in the last 4 times between these two teams, and 7 times out of the last 10.

I think that from that rock bottom spot they hit last week, the only way is up. Surely they would have done something about it.

Bet 1: Australia over 7.5 points HT @1.83
Bet 2: Australia over 16.5 points FT @1.83

The pressure of Bledisloe Cup being off now, I think there will be points in this game.

Bet 3: Over 52 points @1.83

Australia to lead after 10 mins
9/2 @ Bet365

southpaw wrote: Nice start to weekend on Sharks outright. Great call on unders in the newsletter, thought we may break the record for lowest scoring game at one point.

Aus v NZ - got a hunch on a better Aus start. I may still get involved in NZ minus cap, but for now -

Aus over 7.5 1st half points @ 17/20

Added small interest 1st try Petaia 25/1

Aus v NZ
Taking over 42.5pts at HT
14 v 14 should open up things

Following the conductor and taking Leinster -13.5 at 8/10 vs ospreys

The line is Leinster -19 at Bet365

Damian Willemse’ goal kicking is atrocious, you can never back points with him with any confidence

Missed afternoon game as had to go out, taking half of Aus profits into -

Over 56.5 total points @ 5/6 lions bull

Will be lucky to get 45 points in this lions game. Ivan Van Zyl is shocking.

glad it was Jantjies that had to kick that last penalty and not Damian or that fella from Otago that shanked the ball time and again yesterday (Ioane , I think)

That Otago kicker was unreal....he was just inept...

Thrasher6 wrote: That Otago kicker was unreal....he was just inept...

And btw.....under estimate the Ospreys at your peril at home...anything around +20 is silly

Cross league double

Manawatu +13 into Leinster -14 @ 3.64

I'm on Hawke's Bay +3.5 and then in Manawatu vs Taranaki I took Manawatu +12.5 and Under 52.5

I despise Unders.

Be it rain, wet, downpour, windy, ugly weather, bad weather, pot holes in the park, if I take Unders it goes spectacularly Overs.
It's been happening to me for years, that's why I avoid Unders. And when I take them, they score like crazy.

Yes, I took unders in Mitre 10 Cup today.

Unders wins more time than overs - fact.

Punters naturally prefer overs as they have an inclination of wanting scoring plays to happen.

To anyone else (like me) who's shattered by getting the Mitre 10 results so badly wrong this weekend (I called 3 winners correctly from 7 played, never mind the line, and I got 1 bet from 15 placed), here's how badly wrong the bookies also called them:

Southland / Otago = 27 points wrong
Auk / Northland = 19 points wrong
NH / Counties Manukau = 13 points wrong
Tasman / Canterbury = 41 points wrong
HB / Wellington = 18 points wrong
Waikato / BOP = 10 points wrong
Manawathu / Taranaki = 4 points wrong

Yes, anything can happen in sport, but this is different planet stuff. The only game that they even got close was the last one. Let's not mention the Tri-nations (17 points) match. If you applied math and science, you couldn't make it more opposite.

Now if that's not a Lotto (cluster-feck) then I don't know what is.
Covid to blame, maybe ? Or maybe match fixing ? Perhaps I'm just a sore loser, but I feel violated by this shit, I didn't even get a look into the room. It's like I got mugged. Are the Kiwi's taking the piss out of us ?

I think I'll be better off betting on frog-races.

Any thorts out there guys ? Has our best chances of getting a win become overs or unders ? And then hoping for a blizzard ?

It's a punters minefield but have to say M10 is a thrilling comp to follow, a win can mean a semi final spot while a loss can mean relegation next week...it's absolutely bonkers. I think it goes to the level of talent NZ has at that level where if you don't show up you can get beat by anybody. I am definitely sacking the comp for punting though, I can't call it consistently and the last few weeks breaking even has felt like a win. Will stick to the saffa super rugby and just punt bigger there as it's easier to understand teams and matchups week to week.

Here are a few rules I follow with regards to over / unders:

Brendon Pickerill reffing - go unders. Always.
Look at the goal kickers - if one of the teams has a shoddy kicker, then go unders.
Evening games - generally go unders.
Southland / Sharks / Canterbury - unders.

Here are a few rules I follow with regards to over / unders:

Brendon Pickerill reffing - go unders. Always.
Look at the goal kickers - if one of the teams has a shoddy kicker, then go unders.
Evening games - generally go unders.
Southland / Sharks / Canterbury - unders.

Kirky wrote: To anyone else (like me) who's shattered by getting the Mitre 10 results so badly wrong this weekend (I called 3 winners correctly from 7 played, never mind the line, and I got 1 bet from 15 placed), here's how badly wrong the bookies also called them:

Southland / Otago = 27 points wrong
Auk / Northland = 19 points wrong
NH / Counties Manukau = 13 points wrong
Tasman / Canterbury = 41 points wrong
HB / Wellington = 18 points wrong
Waikato / BOP = 10 points wrong
Manawathu / Taranaki = 4 points wrong

Yes, anything can happen in sport, but this is different planet stuff. The only game that they even got close was the last one. Let's not mention the Tri-nations (17 points) match. If you applied math and science, you couldn't make it more opposite.

Now if that's not a Lotto (cluster-feck) then I don't know what is.
Covid to blame, maybe ? Or maybe match fixing ? Perhaps I'm just a sore loser, but I feel violated by this shit, I didn't even get a look into the room. It's like I got mugged. Are the Kiwi's taking the piss out of us ?

I think I'll be better off betting on frog-races.

Any thorts out there guys ? Has our best chances of getting a win become overs or unders ? And then hoping for a blizzard ?

I agree with what you say about lines been way out of wack
but this happens week after week with all rugby handicaps - they are out by at least 5 points - my point been why take oddson on the side you fancy?
take the odds against!! take at least the 12/10 line
if the -16.5 stormers don't win, the 'line' of -10.5 wouldn't win either
AUS and nz have met 4 times in recent weeks and your fancy would have won on the handicap at 2/1 every time conversely if you had backed the wrong side at a line odds of 7/20 (the odds on safe haven laager mentality), you would have done your boots
think about it - now you don't have to guess right 57% of the time - you have a much bigger margin in your favor

Ulster -7.5 at 9/10

Only one bet for me on Mitre Cup this weekend Southland v Otago unders
Will stay away from punting on Mitre Cup handicaps until latter stages of Cup ie when more certain of first XV lineups - or perhaps with some local intel etc
Otherwise it is a punting graveyard

Betting is really adding some spices into the game, Not sure if some of you were on the Lions +5.5 yesterday but what an emotional roller-coaster it was ... From a First Half totally in control, then the Jantijes gift, the try scored with a forward pass not called and the last Bulls try that was supposed to close the deal. Last action they got a penalty at 79'30 and for whatever reason went for a quick tap (I was literally screaming in front of the TV as they were 8 points down) and then they got another penalty where suddenly some Rugby IQ came into the mix. And as a paradox Jantijes converting that one, it is an hard job I am telling you! (But that is why we love it as well).

I eked away for a solid profit. Canterbury smashing Tasman was a shock (though Canterbury were fighting against demotion) and Otago falling apart against Tasman was a surprise too, (though it could be explained by a lack of rotation this season, and possible fatigue) other than that I didn’t think the results were that shocking.

Counties did beat Taranaki last week and then were completely ineffective this week for example, but there was a difference-Kieran Read played last week, and played out of his skin. This week there was no Kieran Read, so a drop off was inevitable.

Waikato v Bay of Plenty-Waikato had been slumping a little the previous couple of rounds, while Bay of Plenty have been on the up form wise, smashing Canterbury and then beating Hawke’s Bay, who have been amazing this year.