Super Rugby Unlocked, Mitre 10, Tri Nations, Autumn Nations + other 09-16 Nov

Happy Monday, the handicaps on Mitre here in NH.

Counties (+1.5) - South
Northland (+11.5) - Waikato
Otago (+10.5) - Tasman
Wellington (-23.5) - Manawatu
BOP (-1.5) - NH
Taranaki (+4.5) - HB
Cant (+2.5) - Auckland

Seeing Canterbury dog at home is like seeing Southland favorite away - that never happen so last time I went with Manawatu on the board, this time i ll take Canterbury @ 2.15 on the board - Auckland just need 1 point to secure top spot and might even not need any if Tasman does not do the job in Otago
Second spot for me is Counties Manukau @ 1.91 on the board - once again I lay Southland as canot understand how they can be favorite away

bradie82 wrote: Seeing Canterbury dog at home is like seeing Southland favorite away - that never happen so last time I went with Manawatu on the board, this time i ll take Canterbury @ 2.15 on the board - Auckland just need 1 point to secure top spot and might even not need any if Tasman does not do the job in Otago
Second spot for me is Counties Manukau @ 1.91 on the board - once again I lay Southland as canot understand how they can be favorite away

Agree I am heavy so far on both Canterbury +2.5 and Counties +1.5, these odds won’t last long and we can always counter bet if something happens with the lineups. I don’t expect Counties to drop a last match home (I guess Reid will play) and well Canterbury will be playing their survival and we saw last week that they still have a taste for blood

Auckland are guaranteed top spot no matter what happens. They are 5 points ahead of Mako and Mooloos. If they end on level points then the winner of the head to head match in the season gets the higher position. Auckland have beaten both Tasman and Waikato so they cannot be shifted from pole position.

I make the Cantabs good things as Auckland may rest their to top players for the Semi's

Auckland are guaranteed top seed. A three-way on 34 points is possible, but the tiebreaker there is most competition points earnt playing the other two, which Auckland wins. Tasman and Waikato are playing for second place.

I think there is a good chance Auckland, Otago and Hawke’s Bay rest players this week.

Canterbury bashed in from +4.5 to -3.5 by savvy punters

RuggaBugga wrote: Auckland are guaranteed top spot no matter what happens. They are 5 points ahead of Mako and Mooloos. If they end on level points then the winner of the head to head match in the season gets the higher position. Auckland have beaten both Tasman and Waikato so they cannot be shifted from pole position.

I make the Cantabs good things as Auckland may rest their to top players for the Semi's

Thanks for that info, did not realise it was settled that way but even better for the bet then

[/quote] I don’t expect Counties to drop a last match home (I guess Reid will play) and well Canterbury will be playing their survival and we saw last week that they still have a taste for blood[/quote]

Read is done for the season, has played the quota of games allowed by his Japanese club.
Irrespective I agree with the bet, been opposing Counties all season, but not at home vs the Stags

Pro 14 tonight
Ulster -12.5pts v Glasgow

Ulster not as affected by other sides with Autumn Nations Cup call ups
M Coetzee and Sam Carter named in side tonight
Discarded Irish internationals incl Jack McGrath and John Cooney also in there

Pro 14

Edinburgh vs Cardiff Blues

Edinburgh have a depleted squad for this match. Thirteen players are on international duty, nine are injured and one is in quarantine. 23 first team players, that's an entire matchday team. Their coach named 7 academy players in the squad. 

Cardiff not missing many to international duty.

I took Cardiff +5.5 @1.84.

Shazzadude wrote: Auckland are guaranteed top seed. A three-way on 34 points is possible, but the tiebreaker there is most competition points earnt playing the other two, which Auckland wins. Tasman and Waikato are playing for second place.

I think there is a good chance Auckland, Otago and Hawke’s Bay rest players this week.

Canterbury bashed in from +4.5 to -3.5 by savvy punters

Canterbury is now at -9.5 (from +3.5 this morning). Glad to have placed a nice hammer early morning. I will keep an eye on the lineups to counter bet if needed but 12 points handicap drop in few hours is a massive shift.

Bottom line is that NZ Rugby CANNOT AFFORD to have the Cantabs in the Championship ... pretty amazing how the stars are aligning for them ...

The loser of the "NZ Rugby Fix" you ask? Definitely North Harbour, they will go down to BoP, Wellies will win with a BP and Cantabs will do the job against Auckland which will see NH relegated ...

Its easier to read the crystal ball when there is money inside of it

Quill wrote: Pro 14

Edinburgh vs Cardiff Blues

Edinburgh have a depleted squad for this match. Thirteen players are on international duty, nine are injured and one is in quarantine. 23 first team players, that's an entire matchday team. Their coach named 7 academy players in the squad. 

Cardiff not missing many to international duty.

I took Cardiff +5.5 @1.84.

Have taken the same bet, modest stake though, Welsh rugby is on its @rse at the moment and the midfield is a bit concerning.

Also had a speculative dabble at Edinburgh HT/Blues FT @ 9.5
Both Edinburgh prop replacements are debutants, so they could wilt late in the game.

Edinburgh on the board @ 1.73 on Betfair Exchange

Andrew Brace is reffing Edinburg v Cardiff - no chance for Cardiff.

Cardiff won’t get anywhere near this + handicap.

18-0 FT to Edinburgh. Ok.

RuggaBugga wrote: The loser of the "NZ Rugby Fix" you ask? Definitely North Harbour, they will go down to BoP, Wellies will win with a BP and Cantabs will do the job against Auckland which will see NH relegated ...

If Harbour win, then BOP goes (back) down - gonna be a tuff match that one..

Both Tasman and Waikato need to do better than the other one - at stake is a home semi for the one who is highest - currently Tasman. But if Mooloos get BP and Tasman don't, the Mooloos get home semi. Both should beat their H/caps. No reason for Otago to fight back as they have home semi from being top, and Northland don't have much to fight for either.

Argh, this can mean trouble for me again, putting money on these flip-floppers

Just some info on the French squad for the Autumn Nation Cup. As I said last week, the team that played the past 2 weeks will probably play again this week and then will not play any left game. The last news is that the starting 15 should be roughly the same but the difference is that Galthier might change his bench in order for the substitutes to be available for Scotland. That will mean Serin & Jalibert should be playing together (good thing as they used to play together at Bordeaux), Thomas, Retiere and Raka could play at the wing, front row would not be an issue but to me the big struggle could be second row but Galthier might remove Taofifenua from the squad to have some experience for the Scottish game. With Russell out, and I guess Hastings too, to me that game could be a 50/50 one and France to win the tournament @ 7 (or more) looks juicy as if they reach the final, even with their second squad, can t see them being at more than 4 or 5. The each way could the right move on that bet.

Does anybody know if the Irish players not playing against Wales will be released and play for their club this weekend please?

I like the Counties lineup Leavasa is back and Roigard gets a start at 9, if you take away Reid this is mostly their best starting lineup of the season so far. They won’t trash that final game and it looks like they want a payback from last year disaster in Southland. Confident with my Steelers pick here.

how is it possible to still back Joe Biden at 1/10 (not 1/100) on Betfair?

Connacht vs Scarlets

Connacht -6.5 @ 1.94 on 888

Was expecting a higer cap so no brainer for me

I'm not so sure about Counties. They offer a little on attack, but are absolutely rubbish on defence, and I think the Southland tight five will be licking their lips against their opposites. Southland's defence has been hugely impressive this year, it's really only the last 18 minutes against Tasman where they've really been ripped apart.

You could point to the Manawatu game as a letdown spot for Southland where they probably should have won, but one of the interesting points to note is the travel factor for Southland. When Southland travelled to Manawatu, they would have either caught two flights to get there (Invercargill to Christchurch and then a flight to Palmerston North, plus a small bus trip to Feilding) or a two hour flight to Wellington and a two and a half hour bus ride to Feilding. It was a bit simpler for them travelling for tomorrow's game-one two hours flight straight to Auckland, and Pukekohe's half an hour away from Auckland airport.

Counties did beat Taranaki, but that did require Kieran Read pulling off a performance that was better than anything he did in last year's world cup. Counties are 0-4 on the handicap this season without Kieran Read playing (2-3 with him playing).

Both teams have something to play for, Southland win and they need Waikato to beat Northland to make the semis, while Counties have pride on the line. The weather's going to be great for tomorrow's game, I'm currently tossing up between Southland +2.5, and Southland team total over 23.5

Otago have named a full strength side against Tasman; this caused the line to move from +10.5 to +8.5. Tasman also named a strong side.

Northland have moved their home game to Kaikohe this round, 80 km north of Whangarei, their usual home ground. This will mean Waikato will have a five hour plus bus journey from Hamilton tomorrow (anything less than a 6 hour drive teams have to travel by bus rather than plane).

Wellington have named a full strength side.

Under 52.5 in Counties - Southland at 9/10

Shazzadude wrote: Otago have named a full strength side against Tasman; this caused the line to move from +10.5 to +8.5. Tasman also named a strong side.

Northland have moved their home game to Kaikohe this round, 80 km north of Whangarei, their usual home ground. This will mean Waikato will have a five hour plus bus journey from Hamilton tomorrow (anything less than a 6 hour drive teams have to travel by bus rather than plane).

Wellington have named a full strength side.

I have walked away from Otago Tasman I don’t like to bet against a Top Team after a heavy loss they will have a point to prove and Otago have been unpredictable this year from one week to another.

Wellington I have taken some -23.5 but a light one

On Counties we see it differently (and that’s fine!), they really have more talents than Southland in my eyes and I expect few players to be a bit more fresh as well, Roigard at 9 is a massive +.

Cheers!

I'm Putting my Money on

Southland
Otago
Wellington

Enjoyed the show, fellas. I thought CL's analysis on Georgia was great.
I have Georgia +51 AH in a multi that I am now tempted to cash out. All not doom and gloom for Georgia though - their U20's are on the up. You expect players to grow inches playing England too, so I hope that will ride the Lelos to some scoreboard respectibility.

Good luck all with your weekend bets!

Waikato lineup looks rather experimental this week, with Beaudein Waaka slotting in at first five, Baillyn Sullivan at fullback and Hamilton Burr moved from lock to blindside. River Reihana left out of the squad, and Louis Rogers starting at 12 who hasn’t played all season.

Bet365 has suspended markets for the game, I’m on Northland +11.5 and a sprinkle on ML

Shazzadude wrote: Waikato lineup looks rather experimental this week, with Beaudein Waaka slotting in at first five, Baillyn Sullivan at fullback and Hamilton Burr moved from lock to blindside. River Reihana left out of the squad, and Louis Rogers starting at 12 who hasn’t played all season.

Bet365 has suspended markets for the game, I’m on Northland +11.5 and a sprinkle on ML

I found the point spread decent on that one as well Northland is at 19.5 on dry afternoon conditions in Kaikohe ...

Southland are a better team this year, they improved under their new coach, Dale McLeod, and they have the second best defensive record.
The prospect of playing finals should give them a boost.

Bet 1: Southland +2.5 @1.88
Bet 2: Under 51.5 @1.75

Happy Friday everyone, Counties getting the job done with the morning coffee but it’s fair to say that despite being the better team they got most of the ref decisions going their way especially on GPT injury that would have deserved a TMO review. Roigard at #9 is definitely making a difference, a good prospect to follow.

Great call(s) guys on the Under, definitely the best bet on that match.

So I’ve decided to bet on over 29.5 points in the woman’s origin. It’s currently 6-6 at HT. I’ve counted 5 clear missed chances. I don’t know why I do this. Watching women’s rugby league, or betting overs on this game.

Lions vs Pumas game postponed. Covid outbreak.

Whitehead out for the Kwa's tonight and Pumas v Bulls could be rescheduled, worst case it could be a draw! Sharks are therefore massive runners for the Unlocked Title. All over them tonight ...

Sharks -10.5 ht
Sharks -19.5 ft
Sharks over 36.5 points

Griquas under 19.5 @ 1.83

Chiefie wrote: So I’ve decided to bet on over 29.5 points in the woman’s origin. It’s currently 6-6 at HT. I’ve counted 5 clear missed chances. I don’t know why I do this. Watching women’s rugby league, or betting overs on this game.

Nice Sixth sense here!

France - Fiji is likely to be cancelled as they are COVID cases popping up in the Islanders squad. If that is the case there will be some interesting bets to place on Top14 - If players are released to their respective clubs (and they should). Racing and Toulouse could be the ones getting a strong boost.

CLrugby wrote: France - Fiji is likely to be cancelled as they are COVID cases popping up in the Islanders squad. If that is the case there will be some interesting bets to place on Top14 - If players are released to their respective clubs (and they should). Racing and Toulouse could be the ones getting a strong boost.

I don't believe they would be released at all - to me the question is : will they play the following weekend vs Scotland and will Galthier stick with the squad he announced yesterday?

AB vs Pumas -in agreement with the Stig . Pumas are a unknown element for the AB .
Going with Pumas +23,5@11/10 WSB
And Cheetahs +6,5 @8/10 WSB.
The double pays about 2,57.
Have a good punting weekend

Some great thoughts as usual lads , really enjoyed the show last night . Thanks Sean for pointing out that there is no Whitehead for the Griquas , thats huge . A bit worried about this referee Griffin Colby but have taken under 18.5 Griquas , really wanted the 19.5 but couldn't get it , lumped on minus 18 at evens .

Also on the unders in the Irish match , weather is ok , but games between the 2 normally fall within this range and I'm expecting improvement from Wales here and am on the plus 9.5.