Tennis : w/c 10 May ATP Rome and Other

Been catching up on some clay court tournaments before the french open and quite fancy the two players in tonight's final to feature in Paris. It's just possible (Apologies to Quill) that Rafa may be approaching his sell by date
French Open Out Rights
Win
Zverev @ 16/1
Berrettini @ 50/1

The Vann wrote: Been catching up on some clay court tournaments before the french open and quite fancy the two players in tonight's final to feature in Paris. It's just possible (Apologies to Quill) that Rafa may be approaching his sell by date
French Open Out Rights
Win
Zverev @ 16/1
Berrettini @ 50/1

It is possible, Vann, indeed, as he is no longer in his 20s.

However, let's not forget other two very strong clay court players, Thiem (my favourite after Nadal ) and Tsitsipas, who's been in great form on clay recently. Both of them played really well at the last French Open and at the more recent clay tournaments.
Thiem lost the 2019 final in 4 sets to Nadal, so we should expect him to win the French Open quite soon.

Zverev did well in Madrid because the surface was faster there than the usual clay courts elsewhere.

My first bet for tonight is a Nishikori win @1.77 over Fognini.

Nishikori lost only to eventual champions Nadal in Barcelona and Zverev in Madrid.
Fognini has had an average clay season so far, he struggled with lowly ranked players.

Karatsev + Garin + Sinner @2.07

Can't have Garin against the Saffer so taking

Nishikori + Karatsev + De Minaur @ 5/2

The Vann wrote: Can't have Garin against the Saffer so taking

Nishikori + Karatsev + De Minaur @ 5/2

I like De Minaur to win too, good multi, copying it for myself

Struff + Musetti @2.55

Struff played the final in Muenchen recently while Musetti is playing in front of his home crowd (there were spectators in Madrid, so I assume there will be in Rome too). Anyway, Hurkacz came out of nowhere to win Miami, but since then he's been average.

WTA Rome

Garcia vs Cocciaretto

Garcia is one of the better players on the tour, even though recently she hasn't had good results.
However she is still motivated to win trophies, and last week she split with her father as a coach and hired Spain's Gabriel Urpi to work at least through Paris.
Now with a new coach I expect her to feel good on court.

​​​​​​​Cocciaretto received a wild card here and she is now ranked 111, her career best.
She's coming into this tournament after a poor display in Zagreb, so I don't expect her level to raise too much against Garcia.

Bet: Garcia @1.80, bet365

Berrettini + Norrie @1.96

Garcia + Berrettini @ 12/10

I don't think Goffin is carrying great form at the moment and Medvedev is to clay what Vilas was to grass.

Delbonis + Karatsev @ 27/10

The Vann wrote: I don't think Goffin is carrying great form at the moment and Medvedev is to clay what Vilas was to grass.

Delbonis + Karatsev @ 27/10

Agree.
Medvedev has a hard time playing on clay and moreover Karatsev has been playing very well on clay this year.
I was pondering about Delbonis to beat Goffin, but now that you posted it I'm in too.

Agut to beat Garin @1.83

Thiem + Zverev + Tsitsipas + Berrettini + Shapovalov @2.71

Thiem + Zverev + Tsitsipas + Berrettini + Nadal @2.29

Berrettini vs Millman

Berrettini had 8 consecutive wins during which time he won in Belgrade and lost the final in Madrid.

Millman competed in five tournaments in this European clay swing, and four of those five campaigns ended in the second round, including in Monte Carlo Masters last month and Madrid Masters last week.
Nevertheless, winning seven matches from 12 outings on clay over the last few weeks is already an excellent result for John Millman. He shouldn't be sorry for a second round exit at the hands racquet of Berrettini.

Bet 1: Berrettini -4.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Total games Under 20.5 @1.91

Sinner vs Nadal

I think we'll have a tight match here. Last year at Roland Garros Sinner almost won the first set and stayed close in the second before collapsing in the third (7-6(4), 6-4, 6-1).
However, at that time Nadal was in top form and he won French Open without losing a set.

Things are a bit different now, with Nadal looking shaky especially against the new wave players, with better and powerful serves. Sinner is exactly that kind of an opponent, and moreover he moves well on around the court and handles well the long rallies.

Sinner dispatched Humbert 6-2 6-4 in the first round.

Conditions here are more favourable to Nadal in Rome, where he is 63-7 lifetime with 9 titles. Nadal will probably get the job done, but I expect Sinner to at least keep close.

Bet: Sinner +4.5 @2.10

Quill wrote: Berrettini vs Millman

Berrettini had 8 consecutive wins during which time he won in Belgrade and lost the final in Madrid.

Millman competed in five tournaments in this European clay swing, and four of those five campaigns ended in the second round, including in Monte Carlo Masters last month and Madrid Masters last week.
Nevertheless, winning seven matches from 12 outings on clay over the last few weeks is already an excellent result for John Millman. He shouldn't be sorry for a second round exit at the hands racquet of Berrettini.

Bet 1: Berrettini -4.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Total games Under 20.5 @1.91

Quality Quill. Like my Berrettini pick as these courts look very similar in speed to the French Open.

Taking a short odds acca and expect one match to run on a little so looking at sets.
Auger-Aliassime/Delbonis
Over 2.5 sets @ 12/10
and the acca
Tsitsipas/Zverev/Nadal/Rublev
@ 19/10

Nadal is building himself up for the French Open. last night he beat a red-hot Sinner playing probably his best match of the clay season.

Shapovalov is no contest on clay.

Bet: Under 18.5 games @2.06.

Quill wrote: Nadal is building himself up for the French Open. last night he beat a red-hot Sinner playing probably his best match of the clay season.

Shapovalov is no contest on clay.

Bet: Under 18.5 games @2.06.

Turns out he was.

Chiefie wrote:

Quill wrote: Nadal is building himself up for the French Open. last night he beat a red-hot Sinner playing probably his best match of the clay season.

Shapovalov is no contest on clay.

Bet: Under 18.5 games @2.06.

Turns out he was.

Yes, came out of nowhere.

Huge effort from Nadal to turn the second set around.

Shapovalov on clay, look at him!!

Quill wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Quill wrote: Nadal is building himself up for the French Open. last night he beat a red-hot Sinner playing probably his best match of the clay season.

Shapovalov is no contest on clay.

Bet: Under 18.5 games @2.06.

Turns out he was.

Yes, came out of nowhere.

Huge effort from Nadal to turn the second set around.

Shapovalov on clay, look at him!!

Wow, what a match!
3 and a half hours!

Djokovic vs Tsitsipas

At last year's French Open Tsitsipas clawed his way back from two sets down and pushed Djokovic to five sets. Djokovic won that match in the end, but Tsitsipas showed plenty of fight and determination. He is playing better tennis now than he was then.

Djokovic won fairly easily his matches this week, but this will be a considerable step up in competition.
Tsitsipas won the Monte Carlo Masters and he made the final in Barcelona. His clay-court season so far is the best on tour.
Djokovic may also have less motivation than he had in the past, as he recently said “Now, after achieving the historic No. 1 ranking for the longest weeks at number one, it’s going to be a relief for me because I’m going to focus all my attention on Slams, mostly.”

He’ll still need match play, but he’ll perhaps be less willing to leave it all on the court outside the majors.
The way Tsitsipas has been playing, I think he can at least keep it close.

Bet 1: Tsitsipas +2.5 @1.86
Bet 2: Tsitsipas to win (smaller bet) @2.45
Bet 3: Total games Over 22.5 @1.83

Sonego vs Rublev

Sonego has spent nearly eight hours on the court so far in his three matches this week, while Rublev less than four hours.

Rublev is a fast player with intense and aggressive shots loaded with topspin, that go deep into the opponents court, close to the line.
When he serves he dominates his opponents and he is difficult to be broken. He actually loses gives very few break opportunities in general.
He is one of the most entertaining and the best young players on the tour.

Bet 1: Rublev 2-0 @1.83
Bet 2: Total Breaks of Serve in Match - Sonego under 1.5 breaks @2.00, bet365

Tsitsipas is schooling Djokovic
I thought Djokovic would give a better account of himself, but Tsitsipas doesn't let him.

Quill wrote: Sonego vs Rublev

Sonego has spent nearly eight hours on the court so far in his three matches this week, while Rublev less than four hours.

Rublev is a fast player with intense and aggressive shots loaded with topspin, that go deep into the opponents court, close to the line.
When he serves he dominates his opponents and he is difficult to be broken. He actually loses gives very few break opportunities in general.
He is one of the most entertaining and the best young players on the tour.

Bet 1: Rublev 2-0 @1.83
Bet 2: Total Breaks of Serve in Match - Sonego under 1.5 breaks @2.00, bet365

Love that breaks of serve bet Quill. Anyone in SA seen that market at our local books?

Quill wrote: Tsitsipas is schooling Djokovic
I thought Djokovic would give a better account of himself, but Tsitsipas doesn't let him.

Geat break back from Djokovic which lands the 22.5 games

Rome - Women's Final
Swiatek vs Ka Pliskova

Swiatek won the Roland Garros in October without dropping a set. Here in Rome she has had dominant wins against her opponents, losing only one set in this tournament. On her way to the final she defeated two-time champion Svitolina in 2 sets.
Pliskova won this tournament two years ago and last year she lost the final to Halep.
Swiatek is up and coming and plays courageous tennis.

Men's Final - Djokovic vs Nadal

After a hiccup with Shapovalov, Nadal dismissed both Zverev and Opelka in 2 sets, not spending too much time on court.

Djokovic had two long and exhaustive matches in one day, defeating Tsitsipas and Sonego in 3 sets, spending more than 5 hours on the court in one day.
Even though Djokovic is one of the fittest and all-around toughest players in tennis history, both the physical and mental toll of Saturday’s effort cannot be overstated. Plus, on clay Nadal would be a considerable favorite even if you don’t take what happened in the quarterfinals and semis into account.

Before In the final at Roland Garros last year, Djokovic had been dominant and Nadal was trying to get into form before the French Open. In the final Nadal erased Djokovic.
Djokovic has beaten Nadal 10 times in a row on any other surface, but in their last 4 on clay, Nadal leads 4-0.

Swiatek + Nadal @2.02

I never know how Rafa is going to start. Sometimes he sleepwalks through the first few games. Hoping he arrives on court fully awake today
Djokovic v Nadal
Djokovic to win a set - No @ 23/20

The Vann wrote: I never know how Rafa is going to start. Sometimes he sleepwalks through the first few games. Hoping he arrives on court fully awake today
Djokovic v Nadal
Djokovic to win a set - No @ 23/20

I've just taken Nadal 2-0 @2.20.
Same bet basically.

Quill wrote:

The Vann wrote: I never know how Rafa is going to start. Sometimes he sleepwalks through the first few games. Hoping he arrives on court fully awake today
Djokovic v Nadal
Djokovic to win a set - No @ 23/20

I've just taken Nadal 2-0 @2.20.
Same bet basically.

My book had the same 2-0 at 22/20. No idea why they offer the set bet at 23/20

The Vann wrote:

Quill wrote:

The Vann wrote: I never know how Rafa is going to start. Sometimes he sleepwalks through the first few games. Hoping he arrives on court fully awake today
Djokovic v Nadal
Djokovic to win a set - No @ 23/20

I've just taken Nadal 2-0 @2.20.
Same bet basically.

My book had the same 2-0 at 22/20. No idea why they offer the set bet at 23/20

Oh! My two books don't have that discrepancy.
Well picked!

Swiatek leads 6-0, 5-0 and 40-40, Pliskova serving and Swiatek doesn't let her win a game!!

6-0 6-0 in 48 minutes