Rugby World Cup Round 3 Betting Thread + other rugby

An expensive weekend for me, just like last week. I got to last Monday feeling overwhelmed by too much rugby (NPC & ProD2 also) and shell-shocked by having supported 2 SH losers (ABs + Argies) and finding myself way back in the big money pool.
On Monday morning also, when I did my picks for this week, I penned Fiji to win by 7 over Ozz.

Then on Sunday lunch time, having seen the h/c move upwards in favor of Ozz to -6.5, I change my score to them, against every instinct that I have. Chicken-shit, chicken-shit. Aargh

To add to this morning's gloom, where I went over or unders, the opposite arrived and same with my h/caps, and I ended paying for the bookies Christmas lunch. Again. My only win being on Cam Roygard MOTM. Jaysus.

So. Up and at'em we go again.
Trying to convince myself that it's a marathon and not a sprint. So unnecessary.
Think maybe I've got white-line fever for that big pot on money

Congrats to you who were brave enough to pick Fiji in Superbru, you deserve those bonus points

That Superbru comment hurts way more than it should.

Wales dnb @2 2u

Taken Wales 1-12 @3.0 1u. Bookies have wrong favourite here. Experience is the only common factor in a successful World Cup team and Australia are lacking badly there. Gatland has won these games many times over. An Australian team missing arguably their 2 best forwards is light work for him. Expecting a tense, knock out style arm wrestle with Wales emerging and sending the Aussies home

Hello everyone,

to watch the weather in Marseille for the French team's match, the weather should be horrible. If this is confirmed it will be complicated to beat the handicap of +66

Uruguay +28 ha @1.80 2u

GoGoNoNo wrote: Hello everyone,

to watch the weather in Marseille for the French team's match, the weather should be horrible. If this is confirmed it will be complicated to beat the handicap of +66

Lots of rain for Marseille for tomorrow, but Thursday looks okay at this stage.

France going full strenght and Namibia rotating and giving everyone a run.

Have taken France -63.5 at 9/10 and France -69.5 at 1.44/1. Think this line will move upwards. Don't like big minusses, but Namibia might be in trouble here.

France -64.5 ha @1.729 2u

Cheers Brent. Line moving the way I suspected. Think it will move up a few more points.

I'm also on the Uruguay plus. Have followed this Uruguay team for a while now and they have built and planned for this WC for a while. Have to respect Italy, as they are a very good side at the moment, but Uruguay have targeted this game for a long time as 3rd place in the group ensures automatic qualification for the next WC. I don't think Uruguay will beat Italy, but think they will give it their best and if Italy see they have done enough they might ease off.

Another bet I like on this game is unders on total points. Have taken under 50.5 at evens. There is rain around in Nice tomorrow and a strong wind. Even if conditions were good I would lean to unders. Lots on the line so I think the defences will be up for it.

Uruguay under 14.5 @ 17/20 for me

Italy Over 34.5pts @ 10/11

Italy -20.5 @ $1.85 / -29.5 @ $3.05 / Italy TT over 33.5

Nice middle option now if you got on Uraguay early.

Got Evens for Italy -20 Forza Azzurri

Italy now -19 and over 32.5. Rain forecast. Dont like this!

Jameson wrote: Italy now -19 and over 32.5. Rain forecast. Dont like this!

The lines dropped so much that now it's tempting to take Italy minus and overs.

Agree Quill, lines dropped drastically so that overs is very tempting. Funny in Uruguay first game against France that handicap line also dropped by 10 points by the time KO came.

Taking a bet builder at Hollywoodbets:

Italy over 26.5 points
Uruguay over 7.5 points

14/10

It’s a wet one so perhaps Italy will kick it to the corner more and look to drive it over in grubby conditions:

Nicotera first try scorer @14/1
Nicotera anytime @ 14/5
Nicotera double @ 18/1
Nicotera hattrick @150/1

Also Italy over 31.5 points

Oh well, I need 45 pts!

HT bet - a yellow in 2nd half @ 8/10

Should be winners all around lads. I woke up early and doubled down -18.5 as well.

That middle would have hit too. Juicy.

Incredible how the h/c line settled at 19 a few hours before the game, and that the game ended on 19.
The bookies algorithms are indeed impressive..

Haha Kirky your brain must be on struggle street like mine.
I took Uruguay +27 earlier in the week and then Italy -20 yesterday.
Spent the last 10 mins of the game cursing the Italians for not scoring another try, so i could get a nice middle.
Wasn't until FT I released 38-17 is 21 points, not 19


But your point about the books' algorithms stands!

I like Samoa +14.5. Think Argentina will take any type of win. That's if they win.

Brent Graham wrote:

southpaw wrote: HT bet - a yellow in 2nd half @ 8/10

South I tend to only check handicaps and points at the break, is this available with most books and if not who do you use for it?

I really like the market

Expecting lots of cards in the Samoa v Argentina game. Was 4 in the last Samoa game v Chile!

Also think we get a red card too!

Expecting a fiery affair with big hits, more than likely, a few high ones as fatigue kicks in.

Sticking with the scrum half strategy against bad teams, after Roigard and Reinach delivered the goods through scoring first and getting a double/hattrick.

Dupont doesn’t score as much for France but I’m hoping he sees this as a good opportunity for some statpadding

Dupont first @ 9/1
Dupont double @ 10/3
Dupont hattrick @ 9/1

Brad Breath wrote: Haha Kirky your brain must be on struggle street like mine.
I took Uruguay +27 earlier in the week and then Italy -20 yesterday.
Spent the last 10 mins of the game cursing the Italians for not scoring another try, so i could get a nice middle.
Wasn't until FT I released 38-17 is 21 points, not 19


But your point about the books' algorithms stands!

Yup (hysterical laughter here), I'm scrambled for sure..
I'd put 19 on my spreadsheet as win margin glad that I got extra half point (14 on Superbru), and only realised that it was 21 when I saw your post: and no half point
What a crazy WC I'm having. And I think that most of us are too.
Feels to me like I'm in a tumble-dryer
Guess it's time for me to just enjoy the beer and watch some rugby

Kirky wrote: Incredible how the h/c line settled at 19 a few hours before the game, and that the game ended on 19.
The bookies algorithms are indeed impressive..

LOL- how can you possibly think an algorithm is responsible for a handicap "settling at 19"?

Brent Graham wrote:

southpaw wrote: HT bet - a yellow in 2nd half @ 8/10

South I tend to only check handicaps and points at the break, is this available with most books and if not who do you use for it?

I really like the market

was Boylesports, i tried to fire a big stake but got limited to a medium size, so think they might be testing this market a bit before making it a frequent one. I'll be keeping an eye out for same in Samoa/Argentina game, i suspect a yellow in both halves will also land.

someone talk me out of it - Namibia to score a try @ 10/11 - do France go soft at any point or pure full slaughter mode?

Chiefie wrote:

Brent Graham wrote:

southpaw wrote: HT bet - a yellow in 2nd half @ 8/10

South I tend to only check handicaps and points at the break, is this available with most books and if not who do you use for it?

I really like the market

Expecting lots of cards in the Samoa v Argentina game. Was 4 in the last Samoa game v Chile!

Also think we get a red card too!

Expecting a fiery affair with big hits, more than likely, a few high ones as fatigue kicks in.

I agree Chiefie also expecting a few cards in the game. Have taken a solid strike on both teams to get a yellow card at 35/20 at Sportingbet.

southpaw wrote: someone talk me out of it - Namibia to score a try @ 10/11 - do France go soft at any point or pure full slaughter mode?

I'm looking at Namibia over 4.5 @evens and preferring that to the French over 74.5!

Brent Graham wrote:

southpaw wrote: someone talk me out of it - Namibia to score a try @ 10/11 - do France go soft at any point or pure full slaughter mode?

I won't talk you out of it but I actually think these smaller teams have their best chances of scoring early in the game, they don't seem to have much left in the 2nd halves

Guys I am forecasting a massacre tonight and have invested accordingly

Brent you twisted my rubber arm.

OVER 10.5 FRANCE TRIES - FIRE!!!

IMO this is the biggest miss match so far in the WC. France at full strength and Namibia giving all the fringe players a WC game. And like Brent said in the preview, Namibia's focus will be on next week's game. Like I said in my previous post, I think Namibia is in trouble here. This might get ugly.

Naidoo wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Brent Graham wrote:

southpaw wrote: HT bet - a yellow in 2nd half @ 8/10

South I tend to only check handicaps and points at the break, is this available with most books and if not who do you use for it?

I really like the market

Expecting lots of cards in the Samoa v Argentina game. Was 4 in the last Samoa game v Chile!

Also think we get a red card too!

Expecting a fiery affair with big hits, more than likely, a few high ones as fatigue kicks in.

I agree Chiefie also expecting a few cards in the game. Have taken a solid strike on both teams to get a yellow card at 35/20 at Sportingbet.

great price. I've gone a little more conservative, just in case one side does dominate - 2 or more yellows @ 6/5 with Boyles.

A little rain is forecast this evening in Marseille

France try before 8th minute at Evens for me

Gone Namibia over 0.5 pts @6/5 in live play

Thanks Brent and Hein for the France tries and Danty brace calls

Jameson wrote: Gone Namibia over 0.5 pts @6/5 in live play

I feel as if I've been robbed lol

About 6 chances to score including 2 easy kickable pens but turned down - and disallowed try. Oh well!!

Yebo Brent top stuff! Was my biggest bet of the tournament by some distance, that tries overs absolutely cantered home!

Snorting like a raging bull for the weekend rugby betting action now. Should be some crackers ahead.