URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7 plus other rugby 24-26 November

Rugby weekend of 24th November:

Two games that I will be concentrating on next weekend are firstly Bulls v Connacht and the Lions v Zebre.

Bulls v Connacht has the hallmarks of an open game in Pretoria. I think the Bulls will be glad to get home from the tour of Europe. They played Edinburgh on Friday night and didn't play badly at all, a red card for Coetzee after half time quickly followed by a yellow to Hanekom left them down to 13 which is when Edinburgh took over scoring two tries in that period. The Bulls entered Edi 22 in that game 3 times and came away with an average of 5.6 points scored per entry. I watched the Connacht game back for a second time yesterday and how they came away with the win I really don't know, Sharks butchered so many gilt edge chances. Sharks had 9 entries into 22 and came away with an average of 1.3 points scored, they made 141 carries and 6 line breaks to Connachts 85 carries and 0 line breaks. So it's fair to say Connacht was very fortunate to come away with victory. The bet I will be looking for here is total points, I sense an overs game or I may look for Bulls total points because I can see them causing Connacht real problems with their pace and power. We will have to wait for a market to be priced closer to the time.

Lions Zebre
Lions were excellent on Friday night, really could of got something away to Ulster a difficult place to go. Nohamba at 10 (or at 9 sometimes) is performing excellently. I feel Lions total points should be a good thing here, they put 50 at home on Zebre last year and I feel that they've improved since whilst Zebre probably have too I feel home advantage we can see Lions put up a big score in Johannesburg.

Had a very decent weekend last. What I lost on Friday to Bath and Sale Sharks, I more than compensated by wins on Saracens, Connacht and Leinster, and a 4 leg acca delivered too.
One of my better weekends in a while.

So I'm gonna have another go at handicapping the Premiership, I'll edit it when the bookies put'em up.

Northampton Saints - 2.5 vs Harlequins. ( -3.5 )
Sale Sharks - 5.5 vs Bath. ( -7.5 )
Saracens - 11.5 vs Bristol Bears ( -14.5 )
Gloucester + 6.5 vs Leicester Tigers ( +1.5 )
Newcastle + 8.5 vs Exeter Chiefs ( +7.5 )

The only mis-match that I'm gonna grab as soon it comes out is Sarries. But also a few bankers here. I still think that Sarries win by 20+

Okidoki for now.

EDIT; The caps are out and I've corrected them by bold for the home team in brackets.

Be careful out there, and good luck

So an early punt and acca for me on the Premiership:

Saracens -14.5 for 3 units @ 1.85 Pokerbet,

Sale W, Saints W, Saracens W, Tigers W for 2 units @ 4.30 Pokerbet

The Chiefs should beat the Falcons too, but I'm holding off them till Sunday.

Have taken Munster +12.5 at 17/20

Should be closer to a converted try imo

hanrick wrote: Have taken Munster +12.5 at 17/20

Should be closer to a converted try imo

Likely to be missing Peter O'Mahony and Jack O'Donoghue. I'd imagine they will have to play Beirne at 6 on Saturday

SirDesChamps00 wrote:

hanrick wrote: Have taken Munster +12.5 at 17/20

Should be closer to a converted try imo

Likely to be missing Peter O'Mahony and Jack O'Donoghue. I'd imagine they will have to play Beirne at 6 on Saturday

Yes, I read that they are going for scans. Still very happy to back the plus. I back coaches, not the players.

Tigers -1.5 vs Gloucester

Bulls -12.5

Edi -9.5

In order of confidence

Thanks Brent, I really like the under in the Sharks Game, till they have improved there handling in that humidity, think they will struggle to get to 50.

Thanks Brent,

That 58.5 in the Lions game looks a bet but unfortunately it'll probably open a fair bit higher when released here in UK/Ire. Pricing of the lines early in the week are just cheap markers really as you cannot get much on them and basically you're just marking the bookmakers line for them. Last week I took Leinster -23 and minutes after placing the bet it was 24 then 25, it's very easy to manipulate the markets early on.

After being told the Leinster team this morning it has me wanting to take the Leinster minus 12/13. Very strong. Can see Munster front row getting destroyed Saturday

kt6747 wrote: Thanks Brent, I really like the under in the Sharks Game, till they have improved there handling in that humidity, think they will struggle to get to 50.

In on the under 53.5 in Durban it looks very good

Be carful Sharks v Newport - the Welsh side are riding the crest of a wave having just actually won a game!

Bet:

Taken a multi on 6 teams, very difficult seeing any of these being beaten at home, the only slight worry I would have would be Edinburgh at home to Benetton but they should have enough to get the job done at home. Rest are bankers in my opinion

4 units @ 1.10/1 (Boylesports)
Edinburgh
Lions
Bulls
Saracens
Sharks
Leinster

taken Bulls -13 @ 10/11

Holding back a bit for Bulls points overs when lines come out.

Cardiff v Stormers
Cardiff lost 12-18 to a stronger Bulls side a few weeks back. They'll be pissed with the 22draw in Parma.
Stormers were game in filthy conditions last wkend - Roos was magnificent but is missing tonight.
I've gone Cardiff W on superbru

Bet: Cardiff +4.5pts

Cheeky Black Friday tip -

Stormers over 12.5 HT - I love this line!

4G pitch, Stormers hurting but on the up, Sasha back and the team are on the plane home to cheap wine and steak in Cape Town tomorrow.

I can readily see 2 tries and 2 pens from the Stormers in the first half -

Toulouse -16 ha @1.75 2u

Big rotation Clermont (No Falgoux, Faingaa, Simmons, Lee, Jauneau, Urdapilleta, Moala, Heriteau, Raka and Delguy) while Toulouse go strong with Dupont back at 9 and some fresh faces back.

No contest for me as Toulouse comes wounded and against a well rotated side they should run riots.

Cardiff u2.5 tries @ shades over evens.
Cardiff have played 5 games against SA sides at home and haven't beaten this line once, always opting for the points on offer.

Stormers also haven't conceded more than 2 tries in 4 away games against Welsh opposition

Should of known Edinburgh absolutely terrible

Referee pathetic too

Nice win Cardiff after being 0-14 down.

Cam Winnett is some prospect!

Pablo wrote: Toulouse -16 ha @1.75 2u

Big rotation Clermont (No Falgoux, Faingaa, Simmons, Lee, Jauneau, Urdapilleta, Moala, Heriteau, Raka and Delguy) while Toulouse go strong with Dupont back at 9 and some fresh faces back.

No contest for me as Toulouse comes wounded and against a well rotated side they should run riots.

Thanx for this nugget Pablo, good knowledge

All of the Top 14 are home side priced by bookies. Do you have any other insights on the matches beyond Toulouse ?
Like this team X will not loose...

Just asking for a 'friend'

We don't get TV cover here, but we do have their form stats accessible, but nothing beats first hand knowledge.

Kirky wrote:

Pablo wrote: Toulouse -16 ha @1.75 2u

Big rotation Clermont (No Falgoux, Faingaa, Simmons, Lee, Jauneau, Urdapilleta, Moala, Heriteau, Raka and Delguy) while Toulouse go strong with Dupont back at 9 and some fresh faces back.

No contest for me as Toulouse comes wounded and against a well rotated side they should run riots.

Thanx for this nugget Pablo, good knowledge

All of the Top 14 are home side priced by bookies. Do you have any other insights on the matches beyond Toulouse ?
Like this team X will not loose...

Just asking for a 'friend'

We don't get TV cover here, but we do have their form stats accessible, but nothing beats first hand knowledge.

I'm the other matches I leaning towards Toulon (Castres with some rotation:entire front row + Ardron, Delaporte, Popelín, Dumora out) so I take rct -8 but just for 1u.

Bordeaux over 16.5 HT looks pretty nice but not available for me right now (their backline is pretty pretty strong) and the other I have noted is Pau but now is at @1.25 ...

Rct+lyon+Pau at @1.85 looks pretty nice for me as all of their opponents rotate or have some important absences

Pablo wrote: Toulouse -16 ha @1.75 2u

Big rotation Clermont (No Falgoux, Faingaa, Simmons, Lee, Jauneau, Urdapilleta, Moala, Heriteau, Raka and Delguy) while Toulouse go strong with Dupont back at 9 and some fresh faces back.

No contest for me as Toulouse comes wounded and against a well rotated side they should run riots.

Hi mate

Is -23/24 too high now?

SirDesChamps00 wrote:

Pablo wrote: Toulouse -16 ha @1.75 2u

Big rotation Clermont (No Falgoux, Faingaa, Simmons, Lee, Jauneau, Urdapilleta, Moala, Heriteau, Raka and Delguy) while Toulouse go strong with Dupont back at 9 and some fresh faces back.

No contest for me as Toulouse comes wounded and against a well rotated side they should run riots.

Hi mate

Is -23/24 too high now?

For me this match is 20-25 difference Toulouse side so no value there for me. If line move below 20.5 fire it but now its moving nowhere at -22.5

southpaw wrote: taken Bulls -13 @ 10/11

Holding back a bit for Bulls points overs when lines come out.

Added Bulls over 36.5 @ 10/11

nice Bulls.

Rain possibility putting me off a big investment in sharks game, so gone for an interest -

1st try/2nd try Mapimpi @ 50/1
last try Grant Williams @ 12/1

Pablo wrote:

Kirky wrote:

Pablo wrote: Toulouse -16 ha @1.75 2u

Big rotation Clermont (No Falgoux, Faingaa, Simmons, Lee, Jauneau, Urdapilleta, Moala, Heriteau, Raka and Delguy) while Toulouse go strong with Dupont back at 9 and some fresh faces back.

No contest for me as Toulouse comes wounded and against a well rotated side they should run riots.

Thanx for this nugget Pablo, good knowledge

All of the Top 14 are home side priced by bookies. Do you have any other insights on the matches beyond Toulouse ?
Like this team X will not loose...

Just asking for a 'friend'

We don't get TV cover here, but we do have their form stats accessible, but nothing beats first hand knowledge.

I'm the other matches I leaning towards Toulon (Castres with some rotation:entire front row + Ardron, Delaporte, Popelín, Dumora out) so I take rct -8 but just for 1u.

Bordeaux over 16.5 HT looks pretty nice but not available for me right now (their backline is pretty pretty strong) and the other I have noted is Pau but now is at @1.25 ...

Rct+lyon+Pau at @1.85 looks pretty nice for me as all of their opponents rotate or have some important absences

Heavy win Toulon, UBB delivers and the combo as well. But the biggest stake is for Toulouse so I hope for a big win.

Taken Leinster -6 in play, 0-10 down

(The 10 point rule)

Hard see a big win after first 20 minutes. Pathetic stuff by them

The spaniards we are known as lazy people (and its true) but this lazy french toulousains left everything for the last play

Nice result this weekend in the always interesting Top14.

Needed one more was on over 36.5

Flemenstar wrote: Needed one more was on over 36.5

lol

Showing a good deal of rain on weather apps there..

Racing 92 v La Rochelle

Decent start to season for Racing 92 with 4 wins out of 5 incl away to Stade Francais last wkend.
Home tonight v La Rochelle who continue without some of their marquee players
Conditions are dry in Paris

Racing 92 -5.5pts and Over 46.5pts @ 2/1 Boylesports

Lions game is getting some attention . huh Points line vibes can make or break it.

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